Natural Refrigerants in the HVAC&R industry: a global study of market & policy trends

Nina Burhenne, shecco

SØNDERBORG, 5 September 2011

about shecco

๏ b2b marketing services expert

๏ mission _ climate friendly technologies faster to market

๏ focus _ HVAC&R & transport sectors

๏ expertise _ natural refrigerants (CO2, NH3, HC + Air, Water)

100+ customers worldwide

our business areas

b2b online platforms

public affairs

market research

events management

getting your technologies

faster to market

our business areas

b2b online platforms

public affairs

market research

events management

getting your technologies

faster to market

shecco b2b platforms

๏ shecco manages 3 business-to-business web platforms promoting natural refrigerant technologies

๏ 2000+ articles about natural refrigerants

๏ 1.5 million+ page views

๏ 8000 +/- experts (incl. policy), 150 + countries

๏ www.R744.com

๏ www.ammonia21.com

๏ www.hydrocarbons21.com

global community๏ the first global professional

network for natural refrigerants

๏ exchange knowledge, connect with partners, customers

๏ set up meetings, comments, network updates

๏ integrated community concept: share content about CO2, NH3 and HCs - without any barriers

b2b online platforms

market research

getting your technologies

faster to market

our business areas

events management

public affairs

๏ international workshop series launched in 2009

๏ objective: spur exchange between policy & industry experts

๏ methodology:

๏ presentations

๏ panel debates

๏ roundtable group discussions

๏ visit: www.ATMO.org

ATMOsphere - faster to market

๏ 27-28 September 2010, Brussels

๏ 40 presentations: policy, technology

๏ 3 panel debates: Retail, India, Education

๏ 3 technology sessions

๏ 30 moderators for 3 roundtable discussions

๏ 44% suppliers; 26% policy; 18% academia, associations, NGOs; 12% end-users

ATMOsphere 2010

๏ Brussels, 11-12 October 2011

๏ interactive workshop with focus on the European Union

๏ 170 participants

๏ topics:

๏ policy: F Gases, Eco-Design

๏ technology: case studies

๏ end-users: panel debates

๏ Roadmap with 10 point action plan

ATMOsphere Europe 2011

Policy End-Users

Industrial Chemistry Research Institute Poland

ATMOsphere Europe 2011

Industry Commercial Refrigeration

Domestic & Industrial

Heat Pumps

Mobile Air Conditioning

Commercial Cooling

Industrial Refrigeration

ATMOsphere Europe 2011

ATMOsphere Europe 2011

SANDEN Manufacturing Europe: Development of a high efficiency CO2 Heat Pump for domestic hot water use in Europe

Obrist Engineering: New safety system for hydrocarbons in Mobile Air Conditioning

Carrier Transicold: Efficient and sustainable container refrigeration applications using CO2

Sanyo: High ambient energy efficient CO2 supermarket showcases

Johnson Controls: R290 chillers & R600a heat pumps replacing an R22 system in a hospital

Danfoss: Energy consumption of second generation CO2 refrigeration system

KAV Consulting: The world’s first two stage CO2 transcritical refrigeration system at a food processing plant

Star Refrigeration: NH3 large heat pump at Nestle factory

Mayekawa: Field case studies of industrial plants operating with natural refrigerants

DTI: Server room heat recovery and free cooling with CO2 and Propane

Frigo-Consulting: Waste heat recovery with combined adsorption and transcritical CO2

R290 Air Conditioning systems in China - serial production & cost savings (tbc)

๏ Washington DC, 18-19 April 2012

๏ conference format

๏ 200 participants, mostly industry experts

๏ ‘Business Case’ North America

๏ increasing interest in natural refrigerants:

๏ ammonia: strong market

๏ carbon dioxide: growing market

๏ hydrocarbons: emerging market

ATMOsphere America 2012

ATMOsphere 2010 Report

๏ summary of presentations and discussions

๏ recommendations for natural refrigerants

๏ survey among 200 participants / stakeholders about 7 most important barriers

๏ 7000 + experts via media

๏ free distribution to policy & industry

๏ http://www.atmosphere2010.com/files/ATMOsphere-report.pdf

ATMOsphere 2010 - participants

๏ 170+ participants, 30 countries, 6 continents

ATMOsphere Report: barriers

global survey - objectives

๏ the world’s largest industry survey to illustrate + quantify the market potential of natural working fluids

๏ inform industry, end-users and policy about:

๏ market state, trends & drivers + industry expectations

๏ adoption potential per world region

๏ barriers & opportunities to the use of CO2, NH3, HC

๏ level of awareness & information sources

๏ more...

global survey - methodology

๏ online survey with up to 28 closed and open-type questions

๏ March - July 2011

๏ invitations sent + calls made to 6,500 HVAC&R professionals & associations

๏ total number of responses (July 2011): 1,136 individuals

๏ 92 countries represented

๏ 53.9% EU

๏ 18.2% North America

๏ 14.6% Asia

respondents - TYPE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

3%5%8%

14%17%

27%

34%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

3%6%

10%

15%17%

23%

35%

46%ManufacturerEngineering / ContractorSupplierTraining / ResearchConsultancy / MarketingOther End-UserAssociation

(European respondents)

respondents - ACTIVITY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

9%

23%25%30%

35%39%

50%

65%70%

Refrigeration - CommercialRefrigeration - IndustrialAir Conditioning - StationaryHeating - Industrial & CommercialHeating - Residential & BuildingRefrigeration - DomesticRefrigeration - TransportAir Conditioning - MobileOther

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

10%

24%24%

30%30%

35%

48%

62%65%

(European respondents)

๏ Refrigeration: 54%

๏ Air-Conditioning: 22%

๏ Heating: 20%

AWARENESS LEVEL

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1 - 20% 41 - 60% 81 - 100%

6% 7%

14%

24%

46%

2%

How informed ... are YOU about Natural Refrigerants

(100% = highly informed)?

medium level

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1 - 20% 41 - 60% 81 - 100%

18%

25%

30%

17%

9%

2%

... is the HVAC&R INDUSTRY?

low level

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1 - 20% 41 - 60% 81 - 100%

24%23% 23%

18%

8%

4%

... are your CUSTOMERS?

low level

POLICY & BUSINESS CLIMATE

0%

13%

25%

38%

50%

Highly Negative Rather Negative Not Moving in Any Direction Rather Positive Highly Positive

How is the BUSINESS and POLICY CLIMATE evolving in your country

(location of organisation)?

not moving / rather positive climate

Natural Refrigerants overall CO2 Hydrocarbons Ammonia

44%

9%13%

4%

BARRIERS

0

225

450

675

900

Training & Know-how Technology & Safety Funding & Costs Psychology Legislation

115139153156209

195

264224280

295

268

277

245

254

229

181

124159

12092

8944673823

0 no barrier1 minor2 moderate3 strong4 very strong barrierr

What are the biggest BARRIERS in adopting Natural Refrigerants?

training, technology, costs

BARRIERS - weighted

What are the biggest BARRIERS in adopting Natural Refrigerants? (options: “high” / “very high” barrier)

training, technology, psychology

STRENGTHS

What are the biggest STRENGTHS of Natural Refrigerants?

environment, cost savings, technology

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Environment Operation Costs Technology Legislation Markets & Competition Supply & Availability System Costs

7%7%8%11%15%16%

48%

14%15%

25%22%

29%33%

28%

29%

38%

38%34%

33%32%

14%

32%

27%

24%23%

17%13%

7%18%

13%5%

10%6%6%3%

0 no strength1 minor2 moderate3 high4 very high strength

STRENGTHS

What are the biggest STRENGTHS of natural refrigerants?

(options: “high” / “very high” strength)

What are the biggest STRENGTHS of Natural Refrigerants?

environment, cost savings, technology

MARKET ADOPTION POTENTIAL

0

1

2

3

4

Rating Average

2,26

2,67

2,933,123,13

3,67 EuropeOceania/AustraliaNorth AmericaAsiaSouth AmericaAfrica

Rank the following world regions by overall NATREF

MARKET ADOPTION POTENTIAL

(all respondents)

0

1

2

3

4

2,14

2,582,86

3,093,19

3,66

(European respondents)

THE GUIDE’11

๏ the first easy-to-access and concise reference guide to the global market for CO2, NH3 & HCs

๏ first edition: European Union

๏ objective: illustrate + quantify the market potential through industry expectations, barriers & opportunities, policy analysis

๏ distributed FREE of charge to industry, end-users, policy

DRAFT

THE GUIDE’11 - content

๏ global user’s guide:

๏ applications worldwide today & tomorrow - value chains / ecosystems

๏ %age of natural refrigerant products & services today and tomorrow

๏ SWOT: information level, barriers & opportunities

๏ Europe - policy:

๏ analysis of selected initiatives

THE GUIDE’11 - content

๏ Europe - market

๏ market size, drivers, forecasts 2012-2020, SWOT

๏ CO2 supermarket map Europe

๏ Case studies

๏ Company directory

๏ launch: October 2011

contact

www.R744.comwww.ammonia21.comwww.hydrocarbons21.comwww.ATMO.org

Nina Burhennenina.burhenne@shecco.comresearch@shecco.com