LESSONS FROM HISTORY: EFFECTS OF MANMADE DISASTERS ON COMMUNITIES
Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters · 5 year effects on growth (all disasters)5 year effects on...
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NATURAL HAZARDS UNNATURAL DISASTERS www.worldbank.org/preventingdisasters APURVA SANGHI, WORLD BANK MARSEILLE, MAY 2014
Transcript of Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters · 5 year effects on growth (all disasters)5 year effects on...
NATURAL HAZARDS
UNNATURAL DISASTERS
www.worldbank.org/preventingdisasters
APURVA SANGHI, WORLD BANK
MARSEILLE, MAY 2014
Haiti Dominican
Republic
hazards
resilience
institutions
large disasters have
severe FISCAL effects
Large disasters raise budget deficit
in developing countries between
0.23% and 1.1%
1% of GDP
$10 million
2 million
malaria nets
Mali GDP
$1 billion
Agricultural growth GDP growth Industrial growth Agricultural growth
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Storms Droughts Earthquakes Floods
Agricultural growth GDP growth Industrial growth Agricultural growth
Storms Droughts Earthquakes Floods
5 year effects on growth (all disasters) 5 year effects on growth (severe disasters)
GDP WELFARE
less productive adults
malnourished children, through stunting, become
• lower body mass
• lower cognitive skills
Philippines: reading / math scores
0.75 SD lower for stunted children
“The freedom to achieve the
actual livings that one can have
a reason to value...”
- Amartya Sen
the benefits of resilence
avoiding disasters’ adverse effects are
high benefit-cost ratios
St Lucia hurricane
Jakarta flood
Istanbul earthquake
India (Rohini basin)
flood
+ 1.5
+ 3.7
+ 4.6
+ 5.7
Increasing accuracy of weather forecasts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
%
Day 5
Day 7
Day 10
Day 3
• China: b-c ratio 35 to 40
• Europe & Asia: b-c ratio 2 to 14
huge potential benefits
but many do not Some countries benefit…
make existing
information accessible
Mumbai
“...rent control...among best-
understood issues in all of
economics...one of the least
controversial”
- Paul Krugman
provide secure title
In Peru, land titling associated
with 68% increase in housing
renovation within 4 years
“safe prisons for all”?
Kuala Lumpur’s SMART tunnel, an example of critical
infrastructure tailored to a specific hazard
only as useful as the last
mile
Early warning systems
infrastructure
information
incentives
institutions
