Natural disasters and

trade

3rd SymposiumNatural Disasters and Trade

10 May 2019

Presentation overview

3. Trade and Disaster Recovery

2. Trade and Disaster Response

4. Trade and Disaster Resilience

1. Hazards and macro-economic effects

WTO Member Event Damage as % GDP

Dominica Tropical Storm Erika (2015)

Hurricane Maria (2017)

90%

225%

Fiji Tropical Cyclone Evan (2012)

Tropical Cyclone Winston (2016)

2.6%

31%Nepal Earthquakes (2015)

Monsoon trough (2017)

33%

3%Saint Lucia Hurricane Tomas (2010) 43%

Tonga Tropical Cyclone Ian (2014)

Tropical Cyclone Gita (2018)

11%

38%Vanuatu Tropical Cylcone Vania (2011)

Tropical Cyclone Pam (2015)

6.3%

64%

In any given year, it is likely that the five island states surveyed will be either hit by, or recovering from, a major natural disaster, most commonly hydro-meteorological in

origin. Nepal must also contend with seasonal rains, flooding, and seismic risk.

1. Hazards andmacro-economic

effects

Focus on geophysical and meteorological hazards

Monument to the “awful visitation of the hurricane”11 August 1831 - Bridgetown, Barbados

Poster in Saint Lucia

Tsunami evacuation mapNuku Alofa -Tonga

1. Hazards andmacro-economic

effects

Trends in Dominica's debt indicators

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Perc

ent

Perc

ent

General government gross debt (% of GDP) General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP)

Reconstruction activity risks placing upward pressure on public debt and creating a significant risk of debt distress - IMF

1. Hazards andmacro-economic effects

2. Trade Issues in Disaster Response

• Delays in triggering emergency legislation;

• Uncertainty about the exemption of relief organizations and relief goods fromcustoms duties;

• Restrictive customs release policies requiring payment in full of customs duties andother duties prior to release from customs control;

• Concern at relief actors working outside official channels and coordinationmechanisms;

• Quarantine restrictions on the entry of search and rescue dogs;

• Cumbersome import license requirements, including for telecommunicationsequipment;

• Problems with the storage and disposal of unsolicited bilateral donations

Customs and other border clearance issues arising in natural disasters

3. Trade Issues in Disaster Recovery

-45000

-40000

-35000

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

TRAD

E BA

LANC

E(VT

MIL

LION

)

TRAD

E VA

LUE

(VT

MIL

LION

)

YEAR

Exports, fob Imports, cif Trade balance

Merchandise exports, imports and trade balance of Vanuatu

Sluggish exports have been outpaced by imports as the merchandise trade balance widens

PL1

Slide 7

PL1 Popescu, Liliana, 08/05/2019

3. Trade Issues in Disaster Recovery

Adds to pressure on the manufacturing sector Fisheries takes a hit

Imports of parts and equipmentEnvironmental servicesTariffs and access to finance

3. Trade Issues in Disaster Recovery

Agriculture sector – still recovering when the next storm hits?

Coconut products

• Fresh coconut juice

• Processed coconut juices and drinks

• Coconut chips, milks and other

• Flavourings

• Cosmetics and oils

3. Trade Issues in Disaster Recovery

Trade issues in disaster resilience

• Build Back Better• Standards of building materials• Tariffs on construction materials

• Operation of service markets• Risk transparency • Weather enterprise

• Operation of agricultural markets• Food aid• Control of SPS / TBT issues

• Renewable energy sources –greening the BOP

Prepositioning of stocks

Didn’t make the grade

All documentation here:http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/devel_e/sympnaturaldisaster10052019_e.htm

In a Sendai State of Mind• Ex post reac on → Ex ante ac on

• Role of standards

• Trade connectivity and disaster resilience