National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Review For

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1 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Review For NUOPC Executive Steering Group National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren Kim Curry 6 May 2010 1

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National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Review For NUOPC Executive Steering Group. Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren Kim Curry 6 May 2010. NUOPC. National Unified Operational Prediction Capability. Purpose of Briefing. Provide NUOPC Status update to Executive Steering Group - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Review For

Page 1: National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Review For

1 NUOPCNational Unified Operational Prediction Capability

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

Status ReviewFor

NUOPC Executive Steering Group

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC

Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren

Kim Curry6 May 2010

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Purpose of Briefing

• Provide NUOPC Status update to Executive Steering Group

• Decision Requested – – Review and approve Earth System

Prediction Capability (ESPC) Charter

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AGENDA

• NUOPC Update– IOC-1 Update

– Discuss NUOPC Charter/MOA update– Post-Processing Discussion

– Committee Reports

• Action Item Review• ESPC Update and Charter Approval - Curry• Principals Discussion

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NUOPC Update Summary

• Revised Committees underway• ESMF management agreement• ESMF funding in place• COPC – NUOPC coordination agreement • Regular liaison telecons• Briefings to OP center directors• Meeting with NSF program managers• Annual Status Review Workshop in

preparation

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NUOPCGoals and Objectives - 1

• Establish a National unified operational atmospheric prediction capability for the United States– Joint operational ensemble of Navy and NOAA

operational weather prediction systems (GFS and NOGAPS)

– Operational Capability built upon adding NOGAPS to North American Ensemble Forecast System(NAEFS)

– Agency post-processing of ensembles to meet agency product requirements (common post-processing if appropriate)

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NUOPCGoals and Objectives - 2

• Unified Technology – Common Model Architecture built upon ESMF

– Technology component sharing

• Accelerated forecast performance improvement– More Efficient National R&D Investment

– Clearly articulated operational requirements – National Research Agenda for global weather prediction

– Community development and involvement

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NUOPC Schedule FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Prelim Phase I

Implementation Phase II

FOCBeta Test Phase III

MANAGEMENT

SW INTEROPERABILITY INIT.STANDARDS

OPERATIONS

OUTREACH

ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOXEXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAININGCOMM, IA, HPC

CONOPS, BUDGET

DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS

FOC

IOC-2IOC-1

TRANSITION CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF)VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM

RESEARCH AGENDA

DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE

FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM

TT PM, TEMPS FULL STAFF AND AGENCY PANELS

ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS

AMS CONFERENCES

MODEL RESOLUTION UPGRADE

0.5 0.25 0.1

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Near Term (FY10-11) Actions - 1

• Initial Operational Capability(IOC) on track for Dec 2010 Implementation

– Interagency agreement to define participation in joint ensemble

– Metrics (TTP Committee)– Center IOC requirements (Agency

Liaisons, COPC)

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Interagency MOA for Joint Ensemble Operations

• Use current Data Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange (DAPE) MOA– Recommend Annex that deals with joint multi-model

ensemble operations

– Draft Annex prepared; reviewing with COPC

– Addresses only operations portion of managing a multi-model ensemble

– Suggest separate annex for joint or common post-processing

• No rewrite of NUOPC charter recommended at this time

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Post Processing

• “Post processing” ill defined– Technical issues: QC of raw model outputs,

Bias correction, Sophisticated calibration

– Development of standard probability distributions of model parameters, joint probability products, other user products

– Operations Concept: Who, What, When, Where, and How

• Will coordinate and staff a position and incorporate it into a draft annex for ESG approval

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IOC-1 Update

• IOC-1 Rollout - discussed with OFCM

• IOC-1 Implementation

– Plan in place for December 2010

– EMC and FNMOC working together

– Briefed at COPC

• Communications intensive

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April 2010 January 2011

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

JulFNMOC delivers

ensembles inGRIB2 with74 variables

AprFNMOC delivers

GRIB2 sampleProducts forevaluation

Jul - AugFNMOC / NWS

Optimize productdelivery (potential)

MayFNMOC delivers

"packed" ensembleproducts

with 20 members,out to 384 hours

Apr - MayNWS evaluatesGRIB2 products

May - JulNWS evaluates

extended members

Jul - AugNWS conducts

final evaluation,charters model

upgrade,issues notices

Aug - SepModel runs in

off-line parallel,RFC prepared

and submitted

Sep - NovTransition to

real-time parallel,IT testing,

NCEP Centerevaluation

DecDirectorBriefing

DecNAEFS w/FNMOC

EnsemblesImplemented

North American Ensemble Forecast SystemFNMOC Ensemble Integration TimelineApril 15, 2010

Risk: Data transfer timeliness maintained after increasing members, variables, and hoursMitigation: COPC Network upgrade (complete),

product “packing” transition to GRIB2 (May),FNMOC dissemination hardware upgrade (date TBD)

Risk: Complete delivery of all GRIB2 fieldsMitigation: NCEP-proposed packing scheme allows model to run with some missing data

Risk: Data transfer reliabilityMitigation: FNMOC dissemination hardware upgrade (date TBD)

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Milestones Aug08 Oct08 Dec08 Feb09 Apr09 Jun09 Aug09 Oct09 Dec09 Feb10 Apr10 Jun10 Aug10 Oct10 Dec10

Resolving Communications and Processing Issues

12-Month Study on the Effect of Adding NOGAPS to NAEFS Results Positive

IOC-1

ESG Agreed to Proceed

COPC Approved Adding NOGAPS to NAEFS

NOGAPS Scheduled to be Added to NAEFS

NUOPC Global Managed Ensemble (IOC-1)(NAEFS)

OriginalRevised

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Planned Upgrades to NAEFS Baseline

2010 2011 2012 2013

NCEP T126 (100km) to T190(78km)/L28 (Feb)

8-th order diff (Feb)Bias Correction

20 members

T190(78km) to T270(50km)/L42 Bias Correction

20 members

T270(50 km)/L45Bias Correction

20 membersCoupled ocean

T270(50km)/L45Bias Correction

20 members

FNMOC T119 (100km) 16 to 20 members (3Q)Bias CorrectionTC tracker

252 h to 384 h

T119 (100km) to T159(75km)/L42

20 membersBias Correction

TC tracker384 h

T159/L42 to T239(50km)/L50

20 membersBias Correction

TC tracker384 h to 720 h

T239(50km)/L5020 members

Bias CorrectionTC tracker

720 hCoupled ocean

CMC 100km to 66km(4Q) L58-80

20 membersDynamics upgrade

Add satellite data (4Q)

53km(L45) 20 members

Upgraded dynamics and satellite data

53km(L45) 20 members

Upgraded dynamics and satellite data

53km(L45) 20 members

Upgraded dynamics and satellite data

Coupled ocean2014- 44km(L45)

Expected/Realized Performance Impact

TBD/TBD TBD/TBDResolution doubled

TBD/TBD TBD/TBD

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Global Model Comparison

GFSDeterministic

NOGAPSDeterministic

ECMWFDeterministic

ECMWF EPSEnsemble

Horizontal Grid

T382/35 kmT574/27 kmin May 2010

T239/50 kmT319/37 km

in 2010

T1279/16 kmcompleted Jan 2010

T639/32 kmcompleted Jan 2010

Vertical Sigma Levels

64 42 91 62

Top Level 0.27 hPa 0.04 hPa 0.01 hPa 5 hPa

Data Assimilation

3D-VAR 4D-VAR 4D-VAR 4D-VAR

Ocean Surface 7 day SST analysis and sea ice

SST and ice cover percentage

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-

wave model

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model

Land Surface Soil temp and water Single layer/bucket model

4 layers in soil to 1.9 m

4 layers in soil to

1.9 m

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IOC-1 Benefits

• 60 member multi-model ensemble based on three state-of-the-science prediction systems

– Incorporates strengths of three systems

– Demonstrated increased skill over a single ensemble system

– Better representation of range and likelihood of events, better capability to capture likelihood of severe or rare events

– Allows more coordinated improvement of prediction system – more eyes on problem

– Provides estimate of probability or uncertainty for decision support and risk management

– Provides more realistic initial and boundary conditions for less deterministic systems such as ocean, wave, hydrology and mesocale ensembles

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Near-Term (FY10-11) Actions - 2

• Stand-up Revised Technology Transfer Committee

• National Research and Development (R&D) Agenda for forecast ensemble operations

– Collecting Tri-Agency operational needs (TTP)

– R&D Workshop on Research –» Prioritize Requirements and Needs

» Joint with NUOPC Annual Program Review

• Common Suite of Metrics for Joint ensemble

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TTP Committee

• Chairman: Scott Sandgathe

– Activity Update– Discuss:– FY10 Objectives– R&D Agenda Draft– Common Metrics

Kim Curry N84

John Eylander AFWA 16 WS/SSP

Jack Floyd AFWA/A5R

John Ward NOAA/EMC

Jian-Wen Bao NOAA/ESRL

Zoltan Toth NOAA/ESRL

Steve Payne CNMOC

Mike Clancy FNMOC

Simon Chang NRL MRY

Ruth Preller NRL SSC

Ron Ferek ONR

James Rigney NAVO

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TTP COMMITTEE

• Agree to prioritized R&D requirements– Agencies have provided list of operational needs– Draft cross-table of needs complete– Preparing for operators/scientists meeting August to create

draft list of R&D requirements– Have met with NSF to discuss way forward

• Agree to common suite of metrics for measuring ensemble performance– Current agency ensemble metrics reviewed– Proposed common skill metrics in agency channels for

review and approval– Will address system and program metrics next

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NUOPC Workshop Goals

• Develop prioritized R&D agenda– Based on common operational needs– Would release to OAR, ONR, NSF, etc.

• Review of NUOPC program– Preparation for operational multi-model ensemble– Implementation of common metrics– Implementation of common model architecture

• Coordination of Tri-Agency development efforts– Planned prediction system upgrades (data assimilation,

global, ensemble, post processing, mesoscale, other)– Tri-Agency development efforts underway– Ensemble products

• Review of outside ensemble research efforts– TIGGE, THORPEX, etc.

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Common Metrics

•Technical metrics considerations–Need a controlled comparison (i.e. model vs model)

–Must consider data, data QC, data assimilation, model resolution(H/L), ensemble perturbation creation, and post processing

–Common verification must agree on:»Common climatology (i.e., for anom. corr., skill scores)

»Common analysis and/or common set of observations

»Parameters of interest

»Common test cases

•System metrics – NAEFS performance measures

•Program metrics – NUOPC performance measures

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Near Term (FY10-110 Actions - 3

• Common Model Architecture (CMA) development underway– Content Standards Committee (CSC)

integrated into ESMF Management structure to design common implementation

– Single Column Model initiative (CMA)– Development plan for the NUOPC Layer

within ESMF being worked with operational centers

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NUOPC Layer Development

• 3 Year Development Planned

• Statements of Work prepared for ESMF Development for both NOAA and Navy

• First year funding in place

• Technical Requirements from Content Standards Committee

• Single column model will be a prototype for NUOPC layer

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CMA/CSC Committee• CMA: (Co-chairs)

– Bill Lapenta (NOAA/EMC)

– David McCarren (NUOPC)

• CSC:

– Tim Campbell (NRL/SSC)

– Activity Update– Discuss:– CSC Prioritization– CMA Progress

Eric Wise CSC AFWA/A6C

Mark Iredell CMA/CSC NOAA/EMC

Tom Henderson CMA/CSC NOAA/ESRL

V. Balaji CMA/CSC NOAA/GFDL

Scott Sandgathe CSC NUOPC

Tim Whitcomb CSC NRL MRY

Roger Stocker CSC FNMOC

Chris DeHaan CSC NAVO

Max Suarez CMA/CSC NASA/GSFC/GMAO

Steve Payne CMA CNMOC

Thomas Black CMA NOAA/EMC

Jim Doyle CMA NRL MRY

Melinda Peng CMA NRL MRY

Greg Jacobs CMA NRL SSC

Frank Giraldo CMA Navy NPS

Andrea Mask CMA NAVO

Mark Swenson CMA FNMOC

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CMA COMMITTEE

• Establish Content Standards Committee as formal ESMF committee– CSC-ESMF agreement in place

– CSC proceeding with prioritization of interoperability objectives from CMA Interim Committee Report

– CSC will begin tracking implementation of NUOPC standards

• CMA address common physical architecture– Agreement to proceed on single column model

• GFS-NEMS, GEOS-5, NOGAPS, COAMPS

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NUOPC FY '10 Spend PlanBy Agency

Total NOAA Navy AFNUOPC Architecture and InfrastructureESMF & NUOPC Layer 780,000 390,000 390,000

Implement ESMF 550,000 250,000 300,000

Joint Development and OperationsNAEFS IOC 160,000 160,000

Incorporate Research Advances into OperationsDevelop R&D Strategy 270,000 100,000 170,000

Committee Costs 218,000 58,000 160,000

Contractors 800,000 250,000 200,000 350,000Management & Overhead 458,000 210,000 248,000

Spend Totals 3,236,000 1,418,000 1,468,000 350,000

FY10 Spend Plan

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Action Item Review

• NUOPC/COPC interaction

• Joint Ensemble Metrics

• IOC-1 Implementation/Rollout

• Interagency Operations Agreement

• Navy-AF Training CONOPS

• Budget Update to AF

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ESPC Update and Charter

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ESPC/NUOPC Intersection• NUOPC

– Focused on operational global atmosphere at weather time scales

– Developing initial Tri-Agency management and collaboration including a common research agenda and a common model architecture

– Evolution of existing agency Ensemble Systems

• ESPC– Focused on the next generation systems

– Focused on integrated earth system prediction

– Primarily a revolutionary research and development effort

– Includes decadal climate prediction

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ESPC/NUOPC Intersection

• Both are a Tri-Agency collaboration on accelerating operational prediction capability

• Both rely on a common software/systems architecture and common research agenda

• NUOPC paves the way in collaboration for ESPC

• ESPC will benefit from NUOPC common software/system standards

• An ESPC goal will be to provide the next generation system for NUOPC

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ESPC Charter

• Decision Requested: Approve ESPC Charter

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Backups

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Deterministic Global Model Comparison

GFS CMC GEM NOGAPS ECMWF

Hydrostatic/Nonhydrostatic

Hydrostatic Hydrostatic Hydrostatic Hydrostatic

Spectral Coeff/Grid Spectral Coeff Grid Spectral Coeff Spectral Coeff

Vertical Levels 64 sigma 58 Eta 42 sigma 91 sigma

Top Level 0.27 hPa 10 hPa 0.04 hPa 0.01 hPa

Horizontal Grid T382/35kmT574 (27km) (May 2010)

Global uniform lat-lon, 0.3 deg lat; 0.45 deg lon; 33km at 49 deg lat

T239/50kmIn FY10: T319/37km

T1279/16km(Completed Jan

2010)

Data Assimilation 3D-VAR 4D-VAR 4D-VAR 4D-VAR

Ocean Surface 7 day SST analysis sea ice

SST and Ice cover percentage from MVOI

Coupled atmos-ocean, wave model

Land Surface Soil temp, water Single layer/bucket model 4 layers in soil to 1.9m

Operational Runs 4 cycles/day (00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z)

2 cycles/day (00Z, 12Z)

4 cycles/day (00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z)

4 cycles/day(00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z)

Forecast length 384 h 144h(12Z)/240h (00Z) /360h (Sun)

180 h 240 h

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Deterministic Global Model ComparisonGFS CMC GEM NOGAPS ECMWF

Horizontal Diffusion Scale selective, 2d- order All levels temperature

Gravity Wave Drag Alpert et al. Orographic gravity wave drag and

orographic blocks in lower levels

Palmer, Shutts and Swinbank

Radiation Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM)

Solar and infrared radiation interacts with

water vapor

Long-wave and short-wave (Harshvardham) computed

every 2h

Solar and infrared radiation interacts with

water vapor

Initialization Not necessary-spectral Described below Machenhauer initialization

Computational Performance 12 min/day 9 min/day

Time Scheme Leapfrog for nonlinear advection terms; semi-implicit for gravity waves and zonal

advection of vorticity and moisture

Implicit, 2 time-level, semi-Lagrangian

Central time differencing with Robert semi-implicit corrections

semi-Lagrangian

Time Step 450 s 900 s 150-180 s

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Agency Operational Global Model Planned Upgrades - “Deterministic” Model

2010 2011 2012 2013

NCEP T382 (35km) to T574 (27km)Radiation upgradeGravity wave drag; Mtn blockingHigher resolution Hurricane relocation

TBD TBD TBD

FNMOC T239(50km) to T319(37km)/L42

TBD TBD TBD

CMC 0.3 deg lat X 0.45 deg lon TBD TBD TBD

Expected/Realized Performance

Impact

TBD TBD TBD TBD

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Agency Data Assimilation Plans

2010 2011 2012 2013

NCEP Global Statistical interpolation (3D VAR)

Hybrid 4DVAR/ENKF

FNMOC 4D VAR; Q1 - Banded Ensemble Transform Initialization

CMC 4D VAR

Expected/Realized Performance

Impact

TBD TBD TBD TBD

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Multi-Model vs. Single Model Ensembles

• Research has shown that combining forecasts from several models increases forecast skill

– Impact of individual model error is reduced

– Provides better information on forecast uncertainty

• Key conclusions from recent ECMWF study:

– Multi-model ensembles are more skillful than single model ensembles

– The benefit is not just from having a larger total number of ensemble members

– Adding a model with less-than-average skill to a multi-model combination usually increases forecast proficiency http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/118.pdf

• Additional confirmation from recent NAEFS study:

– Forecast improvements are gained not only due to the increased number of members in an ensemble, but also to the different combinations of models used http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008MWR2682.1

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NUOPC Long Range Goals

• Implementing a global atmospheric ensemble system designed to enhance predictive capability

• Shared development among government agencies

• Clearly articulating operational requirements and a corresponding National research agenda, with initial emphasis on hurricane track/intensity forecasts, joint wind and seas forecasts, and ceiling/visibility forecasts

• Accelerating the transition of new technology to the Tri-Agency operating centers

• Implementing ways to promote broad community participation in addressing the National research needs.

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FY ‘10 Costs Summary• NUOPC Architecture and Infrastructure:

– $780 K to ESMF to begin NUOPC Layer– $260 K for model interoperability

• Joint Development and Operations:– $520 for NAEFS IOC– $100 K Comms upgrades

• Research to Operations– $200 K to develop common metrics and R&D agenda– $183 K for NUOPC committee support

• Management and Overhead– $1,140 K for parts of 7 support staff

• Total $3,183 K

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