National Security Policy in the Clinton Administration 1993-1999.

National Security Policy National Security Policy

in the Clinton in the Clinton AdministrationAdministration

1993-19991993-1999

2217.471 American National17.471 American NationalSecuritySecurity

SettingSetting

Soviet Union dissolvedSoviet Union dissolved– Central organizing threat for five Central organizing threat for five

decades is gonedecades is gone– Russia is weak politically & Russia is weak politically &

economicallyeconomically Strong nuclear powerStrong nuclear power

– ““loose nukes” threatloose nukes” threat Regional destabilization & breakup Regional destabilization & breakup


SettingSetting

““World Order” Structure UnclearWorld Order” Structure Unclear– Polarity (constellation of great powers)Polarity (constellation of great powers)

Bipolar (1945-1972)Bipolar (1945-1972) Multipolar (1972-1991)Multipolar (1972-1991) Unipolar (1992-?)Unipolar (1992-?) How might system polarity affect national How might system polarity affect national

security policy?security policy?– Democracy & Capitalism as normDemocracy & Capitalism as norm

End of competition of social systemsEnd of competition of social systems ““democratic peace” theory [major war democratic peace” theory [major war

impossible]impossible]– Nuclear Weapons as war deterrentsNuclear Weapons as war deterrents

Nuclear weapons make major war impossibleNuclear weapons make major war impossible


SettingSetting

US & European publics turn to US & European publics turn to domestic focusdomestic focus– Bush foreign policy triumphs fail to Bush foreign policy triumphs fail to

win electoratewin electorate– Collapse of WP/E. European communismCollapse of WP/E. European communism– Collapse of USSRCollapse of USSR– Gulf WarGulf War

Clinton Elected (it’s the economy, Clinton Elected (it’s the economy, stupid!)stupid!)


Policy DebatesPolicy Debates

Academics, policy wonks, insiders, Academics, policy wonks, insiders, politicianspoliticians

4 Options4 Options– IsolationismIsolationism– Liberal internationalism (Carter)Liberal internationalism (Carter)– Primacy (Realist 1)Primacy (Realist 1)– Selective Engagement (Realist 2)Selective Engagement (Realist 2)

A strategy of no strategy or visionA strategy of no strategy or vision Watch & seeWatch & see


Clinton NationalClinton NationalSecurity OrientationSecurity Orientation

US must play a role in the world commensurate with US must play a role in the world commensurate with its its powerpower

Economic growth is essentialEconomic growth is essential– Tied to global economic growthTied to global economic growth

Cold-War “orphan” international problems need Cold-War “orphan” international problems need attentionattention– EnvironmentEnvironment– Population growthPopulation growth– Political repressionPolitical repression

International institutions should be engaged in pursuit International institutions should be engaged in pursuit ofofUS goalsUS goals– UNUN– World BankWorld Bank


Implementation:Implementation:Intervention lIntervention l

Humanitarian intervention & Nation Building for Humanitarian intervention & Nation Building for Regional StabilityRegional Stability

1992-1995 Somalia1992-1995 Somalia– Change from humanitarian mission to nation building → Change from humanitarian mission to nation building →

US DeathsUS Deaths– UN pulls out in 1995 → Somalia syndromeUN pulls out in 1995 → Somalia syndrome

1994 Rwanda1994 Rwanda– 1 million deaths1 million deaths– No UN intervention, Somalia syndromeNo UN intervention, Somalia syndrome

HaitiHaiti– 1990-1994 : turmoil following coup against Aristide → 1990-1994 : turmoil following coup against Aristide →

thousands of refugees at sea → US problemthousands of refugees at sea → US problem– 1994 US sends 20,000 troops to end turmoil1994 US sends 20,000 troops to end turmoil– US pulls out in 1999US pulls out in 1999


Implementation: Implementation: Intervention llIntervention ll

Collective Security –NATOCollective Security –NATO War in Europe is dangerous to US War in Europe is dangerous to US

national security interestsnational security interests YugoslaviaYugoslavia

– Croatia & Slovenia (1991)Croatia & Slovenia (1991)– BosniaBosnia– Dayton Peace Accords( 1995)Dayton Peace Accords( 1995)– KosovoKosovo


YugoslaviaYugoslavia


TerrorismTerrorism

WTC l 1993 [truck bomb]WTC l 1993 [truck bomb]– 6 killed6 killed– >1000 injured>1000 injured

Khobar Towers 1997 [truck bomb]Khobar Towers 1997 [truck bomb]– 19 servicemen killed, 500 Americans & Saudis 19 servicemen killed, 500 Americans & Saudis

injuredinjured Embassies 1998 [truck bomb]Embassies 1998 [truck bomb]

– TanzaniaTanzania 11 dead11 dead

– KenyaKenya 213213

– 4000 wounded4000 wounded


Clinton Response to Clinton Response to Terror AttacksTerror Attacks

Cruise-missile strikes on Cruise-missile strikes on Afghanistan & SudanAfghanistan & Sudan– Was this adequate?Was this adequate?– Why nothing more forceful?Why nothing more forceful?

Somalia & Haiti-syndromeSomalia & Haiti-syndrome ““Monica” affairMonica” affair

What was the message to AI What was the message to AI Quaeda?Quaeda?


AfricaAfrica

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Nuclear ProliferationNuclear Proliferation

Russia & “Loose Nukes”Russia & “Loose Nukes” North Korea 1993-1994North Korea 1993-1994

National Security Policy in the Clinton Administration 1993-1999.

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