National Integrated Drought Information System – NIDIS December 1, 2011 – Lake Lanier Resort

National Integrated Drought Information System – NIDIS

December 1, 2011 – Lake Lanier Resort

Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the

Agriculture SectorBrenda V. OrtizAssistant Professor

Department of Agronomy and SoilsAuburn University

Drought conditions were prone during

the summer months in the

Southeast

Animation from October 2011 back to March 2011

Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

Row Crops Agricultural Statistics in Alabama and Georgia by November 2011Alabama Georgia

* Less acres harvested ↓ * Higher area harvested (+ 18% ) ↑* Lower yield and production ↓ 24% increase in production ↑

* 11% reduction in harvested area respect to planted area ↓* Higher acres planted and harvested. ↑ * Higher area harvested (+ 16% ) ↑* Higher yield and production ↑ 18% reduction in production ↓4% reduction in harvested area respect to planted area ↓25 % poor quality crop ↓* Less acres planted and harvested ↓ * Less acres harvested ( - 15%) ↓* Higher yield and production ↑ 4% yield reduction ↓* 2% reduction in harvested area ↓ 18% reduction in production ↓Harvest is behind ↓

Soybean * Less acres planted and harvested ↓ 43% less area harvested ↓* Higher yield and production ↑ 12% yield reduction ↓3% reduction in harvested area ↓ 50% reduction in production ↓

Cotton

Corn

Peanuts

Crop Respect to 2010:

2011 winter wheat had a record yield because it received enough rainfall during the winter and very early spring

27 % of crops in poor and very poor conditions

Source: NASS- USDA


2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and Georgia

Peanut Crop Situation – Data from Georgia1) Delayed planting, especially non-irrigated acreage. Less than 70% by

May 31 when should be 95%+

2) Delayed emergence, especially in non-irrigated fields. • Highly reduced plant stands• Areas re-planted, some as late as early July, too late to plant peanut.

3) Above normal irrigation amounts. • Irrigation usage for germination and trigger plant emergence• Many producers had to irrigate just to germinate seed.• Some producers irrigated as much as 16-20 inches at about $12.00 per

acre-inch4) Excessive heat delayed fruit set and maturity.

• Temps >>> 104 oF (40 oC) will cause pollen sterility. Temp. of 130 - 140 oF at mid afternoon were measured between rows of non-lapped peanut.

• Fruit set was severely delayed and dramatically reduced. • Delay reaching physiological maturity before cold temps in the late fall

caused a cessation of maturity, resulting in unrealized yield loss (300 - 500 lbs/acre or more???).

5) Higher incidence of calcium deficiency symptoms ("pops" and/or pod disease). Lack of moisture in top 3" of soil resulted in inability of Ca to move (direct diffusion) into the developing fruit.

6) Excessive heat resulted in the "white mold" disease.

7) Increased number of abandoned fields that due to extremely low yield potential.• Field with zero yield potential• On farm trials where the crop insurance adjuster estimated at 52 lbs/acre (~3,200

lbs/acre )• Three of the six non-irrigated on-farm trials had to be abandoned.

8) Decrease in the use of fungicide to control diseases - the only "positive" to the drought.

NOTE: Growers with irrigation ended up making some of the highest yields they've ever made!

Grower without irrigation had some of the lowest yields they've ever made.

2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and Georgia

Peanut Crop Situation – Data from Georgia



2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and GeorgiaCotton Crop Situation – Data from Alabama1) Slow crop growth early in the season due to cool temperatures in June and

drought

2) Many fields completely missed the tope crop reason why there were several 1 bale fields

3) Increase of Corynespora leaf disease (in Baldwin County caused leaf defoliation)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SE AL: Very low yields to zero yield because of extreme drought and heat SW AL: Decent year – Historic higher yield due to Gulf moisture during the

growing season Central AL: Good yield where it rained / Near disaster where the drought

conditions prevailed

• Corridor along I-85 3 major rain/storm events ~ late July and early August 2 bale cotton. In that area, even where the drought was so bad, many farmers made a bale/acre

North AL: Northeast AL around Cherokee County had a lot of 2+ bale cotton.


2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and GeorgiaCorn Crop Situation – Data from Alabama

1) Slow crop growth early in the season due to drought• Plants do not respond to top dress nitrogen application due to drought.

3) Above normal irrigation amounts. • Because of irrigation used early in the season, some farmers did not

have enough water to irrigate corn during the period of high water demand (tasseling/grain filling – June)

4) Excessive heat delayed caused pollen sterility and grain filling.

5) Higher incidence of Aflatoxin due to the heat and drought

6) Abandoned fields and extremely lower yield under dryland conditions.


2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and GeorgiaCorn Crop Situation – Data from Georgia1) Dryland corn – Failure on coastal plain soils (severe drought in amount

and duration)

2) Irrigated corn – Yields were variable• Pivot irrigation – Highest yield ever (Irrigation reduced in-canopy

temperatures)

• Irrigation management was key - Corn yields under pivots that did not meet the water demand were about 10 to 20% below the pivot average yield.

3) Reduced availability of water for surface irrigation for corn. Corn yields were good when these limited water sources were held and used from pre-tassel to early dough.

4) North Georgia mountain valley farms received some timely rainfall in the summer. Coupled with higher than normal solar radiation, it led to good dryland production for a small segment of dryland producers.

Mitigation StrategiesFarmers’ climate education and DST

Water Management Changes in agronomic

management strategies

Discussion of current conditions and climate

forecast

Tristate Climate Working Group For Row Crop Agriculture -FL, GA, AL

1. Farmers’ climate education and DST

GOAL: To explore how participatory processes enhance the capacity of local stakeholders to learn from one another and collaboratively prepare for climate variability and change


Tristate Climate Working Group For Row Crop Agriculture (FL, GA, AL )

1. Farmers’ climate education and DST

A.Methodology For Engaging Stakeholders• Listen to stakeholder priorities: Identify immediate interests

vs. long-term concerns

• Use tools such as timelines to reveal past experiences of coping with change

• Present data on historical climate extremes and trends

• Demonstrate decision-support tools (AgroClimate)

• Small group discussions to brainstorm responses /adaptations to hypothetical climate situations

• Identify constraints and opportunities for future adaptation

Agroclimate workshops for Stakeholders1. Farmers’ climate education and DST

Drought DS Tools in Agroclimate

2. Water Management


3. Discussion of current conditions and climate forecast

• Formal presentations during farmers meetings, farmers’ magazine reports and internet climate and Agroclimate outlooks

• Current conditions and ENSO-based climate forecast

• No skill on ENSO-based climate forecast during summer months.

• For Agricultural Applications Monthly and Decadal forecasts are necessary, especially for irrigation management

• If planting dates are going to be adjusted based on forecasted climate conditions forecast must be issued at least three months in advance

Evaluate and compare different planting densities and planting dates as potential adaptation strategies to reduce

the risk for pre-harvest aflatoxin.

18000 22000 26000010203040506070Planting Date 1 - Standard

Inoculated

Planting Density

Mea

n Afl

atox

in

(ppb

)

18000 22000 26000010203040506070

Planting Date 2 (1 month later)

Planting Density

2010 Data

4. Management Practices

Thanks

Brenda [email protected]

334-844-5534

mailto:[email protected]

National Integrated Drought Information System – NIDIS December 1, 2011 – Lake Lanier Resort

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