National Hurricane Conference
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Transcript of National Hurricane Conference
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National Hurricane Conference
Mr. Mark WelshingerOffice of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
Theme: “Hurricane Season 2006:
Building on theHistoric 2005 Season”
March 20-24, 2006Mobile, Alabama
Update on 60th Interdepartmental
Hurricane Conference
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• IHC BACKGROUND
• SUCCESSES AND CHALLENGES
• IHC WORKSHOP
• SUMMARY
Overview
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IHC Background
• Annual interagency conference:– Hosted by Office of the Federal Coordinator for
Meteolorolgy– Two major thrusts:
• To review the Nation's hurricane forecast and warning program
• Make recommendations on how to improve the program
• Extensive 4-day agenda (operations and research)– Highlight successes– Focus on challenges– Highlight forthcoming capabilities to meet challenges
• Strong scientific (atmospheric/oceanography) focus
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Successes and Challenges
• Successes
– Joint Hurricane Test Bed
– Joint hurricane field experiments
– Advances in modeling / data assimilation
– Improved reconnaissance & observing capabilities
– Improvements in track and intensity forecast accuracy
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35-Year Atlantic Track Errors
Successes and Challenges
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Intensity Forecasts On The Upswing
Successes and Challenges
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• Challenges:
• Modeling / data assimilation / computing power
• Reconnaissance and observing
• Improved forecast accuracy for:
– Storm intensity / structure
– Storm track
– Storm surge
– Inland flooding
• Information dissemination (technology, message)
– Incorporating results of social science research into
operations
Successes and Challenges
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Moderators: Dr. Betty Morrow (Soc Research) Mr. Bryan Norcross (WFOR/CBS)
Presenters: Mr. Paul Trotter, NWS (WFO New Orleans / Baton Rouge)
Dr. Brenda D. Phillips, Co-Director, Center for the Study
of Disasters and Extreme Events, Oklahoma State U.
Dr. Velma J. Deleveaux, Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc.
Ms. Naomi Moye, Abraham’s Group
IHC Workshop
Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer
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IHC Workshop
Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer
• New proposed communications model
• Results of social science research needs to be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program
• Tropical cyclone community needs to seek opportunities to identify social science research priorities
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IHC Workshop
• NOAA, in conjunction with its partners, should work with diverse user groups to develop and test message format modifications
• Research should be encouraged and supported to develop and test modifications to current terminology used to define levels of hurricane threat (e.g., watch, warning, CAT 1-5, etc.)
Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer
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IHC Workshop
-The OFCM will coordinate bringing together appropriate federal agencies
-Begin process of reviewing and improving National hurricane warning “system”
Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer
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Summary
• Social science research results becoming “mainstreamed” into Nation’s hurricane forecast and warning program
• Forthcoming review of messages and hurricane warning “system”