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National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
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Transcript of National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
Paul McEldon NEN Chairman
Welcome and introductions
Sue Hayes Managing Director, Barclays Business Banking
Headline sponsor’s address
The Rt Hon Lord Young Prime Minister’s Adviser on Enterprise
Keynote speaker
Frances Brindle Director of Audiences, British Library
The Rt Hon Michael Fallon MP Minister of State for Business and Energy
Ministerial address
Refreshments and networking break
Andrew Devenport CEO, The Prince’s Youth Business International (YBI)
Why networks are important
Andrew Devenport, Chief Executive,
Youth Business International
YBI – a global network
39 countries, locally rooted and locally led Shared values, shared purpose, shared approach
,
Barbados Belize
Dominica, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago
Canada
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay,
Peru, Uruguay
France, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Russia,
Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, UK
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria,
Tunisia
Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda
India, Sri Lanka
Bangladesh, Bhutan, Mongolia
China, Hong Kong, Singapore
Australia
The power of a network
Global Entrepreneurship
Week 2013 We want current and aspiring entrepreneurs to take a step forward in their plans – whether that’s starting a business, seizing a new opportunity or finding out more about careers in enterprise. www.gew.org.uk
#GEWfwd
Real life entrepreneurs
Rekha Mehr Business owner: Pistachio Rose
www.pistachiorose.co.uk
@pistachiorose / @rekhamehr
Mark Earnden Business owner: Mark Earnden
www.markearnden.com
@markearnden
Phil Pethybridge Business owner: Neon Street and Your Music Business
www.neonstreet.net / www.yourmusicbusiness.co.uk @ppethybridge / @neonstreet / @ymbuk
Phil Pethybridge
Industry: ‘Build audiences and maximise income’ Education: 'Support young musicians to develop sustainable careers’
Real life entrepreneurs
Q&A
Lunch and networking
Annual General Meeting
NEN Members only
Justin Urquhart-Stewart Co founder, Seven Investment Management
NOVEMBER 2013
NATIONAL •ENTERPRISE •NETWORK
NOVEMBER 2013
GLOBAL GROWTH - •EFFECT •ON UK?
GREEN SHOOTS •OR ADVANCED •MOULD
30
31
Green Shoots or Advanced Mould?
November 13 32
REAL GROWTH...
Source: FT
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
2.6%
2.8%
3.0%
3.2%
3.4%
2013 2014
Consensus forecasts for Real Global GDP growth
THE TAPIR & THE PANDA
33
Vs.
BUT COMING OFF THE STIMULANTS....
‘PRO-GROWTH’ POLICIES: QE
SOURCE: MACROBOND
CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEETS
35
USA - HOW TO KICK THE CAN......
36
UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF” PUT IN BETTER PERSPECTIVE
U.S. Tax Revenue: $2,170,000,000,000
Fed Budget: $3,820,000,000,000
New debt: $1,650,000,000,000
National debt: $16,699,000,000,000
Recent Budget cuts: $38,500,000,000
UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF” NOW LET’S REMOVE EIGHT ZEROS & PRETEND IT’S A HOUSEHOLD BUDGET...
Annual Family Income: $21,700
Money the family spent: $38,200
New debt on the Credit Card: $16,500
Outstanding Balance on that Card: $166,990
Total Budget cuts so far: $38.5
USA
Growth Easing?
Corporate Earnings Peak
Fiscal Fudge & Sequester
Housing improving Employment rising -
slowly
Lower Cost Fuels
GAME CHANGER?
US DEFICIT REDUCTION
42
A DIVIDED VIEW – Can He Do It?
EUROZONE
The Future of the Euro
German election? A decade ago 12% umplymt
Company Valuations
Austerity & Growth? ECB
buying bonds
Low Confidence
MERKEL’S DIRECTION FOR CYPRUS
45
EUROPE – EMERGENCY OVER?
46
FRANCE AND GERMANY - A UNITED APPROACH?
47
Ezone Current A/c balances
November 13
“For the use of authorised intermediaries only. This document must not be
distributed to retail clients.” See notes on p25
48
UNIT LABOUR COST DIVERGENCE REVERSING
GERMANY NEEDS EUROPE
SOURCE: MACROBOND
50
•Exports 40% to EuroZone, 31% to rest of Europe, 6% to China and 7% to USA!
EUROPE – WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY?
SOURCE: BANK CREDIT ANALYST
51
GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER IN THE COURSE OF 2013 & 2104
IS THE EURO WEAK?!
53
GBP
USD
UK
Sustainable Growth?
Fixing the Banking system
Tax Reform?
Debt & Deficit No Power &
Transport Strategy
World’s 8th Largest
Manufacturer &...
55
Confident in our Leaders?
56
Break Up & Float or Float & Break Up
UK PMI SERVICES
57
SOURCE:
UK NEGATIVES
58
SOURCE:
Real Wage growth still negative
UNDERSTANDING our debt
Annual Family Income: £612
Money the family spent: £720
New debt on the Credit Card: £108
Outstanding Balance on that Card: £1,153
Total Budget cuts so far: £35
UK ISSUES
“Re-shoring” – Noodles
Cars more exports than domestic production
Steel • Blast furnaces
• Top end Sheffield steel
10th largest exporter
Non EU exports now higher than EU
– Rice Cookers to Asia!
– Financial/Professional trade exports £55bn
–420,000 new business start ups
DAMAGED •NOT •DOOMED
61
GOVERNMENT DEFICIT
UK ANNUAL GOVERNMENT BORROWING
2011 = £94 billion
SOURCE: DATASTREAM
UK GROWING EMPLOYMENT 91.8%
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Full-time Part-time Total
UK HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO GDP
SOURCE: MACROBOND
64
What That Means?
We each owe: £17,603
For each employed person £38,736
Interest per household: £1,921
2 taxes?
VAT £98bn
Income/NI £253bn
UK – DAMAGED NOT DOOMED!
A very British attitude! vs How others see us
Unemployment improving
Retail Sales
Housing
–Deficit 11% to 8% 2011/12
–Corporate cash £750bn
–Co. Confidence index 62.4 – 66.1 – Employment
– Investment
DYNAMIC ACTIONS?
Tax modernisation – 14,000 pages
Stamp Duty?
3/5 Year Start Up Holiday? – National insurance
– Employment
– Investment relief
– Infrastructure Projects & Bonds
– House building
– Peer To Peer Lending Initiatives
SOURCE: BANK OF ENGLAND
68
THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD ...the Bank of England concurs:
INFLATION LIKELY TO STAY LOW IN THE MID-TERM
JAPAN
Islands Dispute
New Premier Abe - nomics
Yen Weakness
Debt 220%+ of GDP Trade Turnaround
Nappy Sales
JAPAN REFLATION
SOURCE;: REUTERS
70
Japan Core inflation
BROKEN BRICS?
China Change of Life
Brazil Valuations?
South Africa Political issues
Russia Rule of law?
India flat
Turkey On the Cusp
THE NEW LEADERSHIP
A SOUTH CHINA SEA SORE
EM GDP GROWTH
Has the West’s “Get Out of Jail Free” card finally vanished?
SOURCE: IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SEPTEMBER 2013
SLOWING GROWTH IN EM
November 13 75
TAIL RISKS
Japan debt crisis
Renewed Eurozone panic
Major conflict
Chinese credit
“For the use of authorised intermediaries only. This document must not be distributed to retail clients.”
Independence - Impact on gilts &
Sterling
US debt ceiling / default
KEY RISKS TO THE VIEW
EUROZONE PROGRESS?
CHINA CHANGE of LIFE
UK SULLEN GROWTH
US DEBT, DEFICIT & DEMAND
YOU ARE NEEDED NOW
JUSTIN A URQUHART STEWART
THANK YOU
Dr Nicola Millard Customer Experience Futurologist, BT
Paul McEldon NEN Chairman
Closing the 2013 Conference
Thank you for your participation today –
please join us for networking drinks!
