National Energy Roadmaps for Islands (infographic...
Transcript of National Energy Roadmaps for Islands (infographic...
MillionBarbados Dollars/year 0
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2030 EV ambitious,daytime charging 2030 Low Oil Price
Battery Storage
Utility scale Wind
Utility scale PV
Sugarcane bagasse
New fossil fuelgeneratorsFossil fuels
O&M
2030 EE2014 Baseline 2030 Reference
LOW OILPRICE
ENERGYEFFICIENCY
ELECTRICVEHICLES
REFERENCESCENARIO
2014BASELINE
RE sharein 2030
RE sharein 2030
RE sharein 2030
RE sharein 2030
68%80% 75%76%
Annual generation consolidated (TWh)
Biomass ImportsCSPDistributed PVCentralized PVWindNatural GasDieselHFO
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2030: Max RE2030: Min RE2013
Generation cost (USD/MWh)RE share
1726.5%
Generation cost (USD/MWh)RE share
12025.6%
Generation cost (USD/MWh)RE share
11040.0%
GWh
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Diesel PV
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2016
RE share
8%
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RE share
35%
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Load (MW)
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0 12 15 18 2319 20 21 22 2410987654321 11 13 14 16 17
Electricity demandPV output curtailedPV output dispatched
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20 40 60 80 100 Percent of hoursof the year
Load Duration Curve in 2030 Load Duration Curve in 2015Residual Load Duaration Curve in 2030
Power (MW)
Peak Demand
Peak Residual Demand
Wind + Solar PV
Dispatchable plantsMin Demand2030
Min ResidualDemand 2030
Curtailment at 55%instant penetration limit
Curtailment at 75%instant penetration limit
Not shown on map:
119 MW small hydro
1 174 MW large hydro
9 MW biogas
102 MW o�-grid solar systems
Solar PVWind onshoreBioenergy power
480 MW 576 MW
60 MW(landfill gas)
342 MW (DG)538 MW (utility)
342 MW (DG)538 MW (utility)
480 MW
423 MW
70 MW(co-firing)
40 MW(landfill gas)24 MW
(bagasse)
120 MW(landfill gas)
153 MW
192 MW
54 MW (bagasse)
70 MW (bagasse)
Requires Investment
Meet demand when RE is not available
Stored electricity can:
Support electricity system's frequency and voltage
The key value proposition for batteries is to provide operating reserves to compensate for forecast errors, as well as for rapid changes in solar and wind output
Meet peak demand without the need to commit additional ther-mal generation units
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+
Capacity expansion
Dispatching
ROADMAP PROCESS
ROADMAP ANALYSIS ROADMAP INSIGHTS
ROADMAP REQUEST• Letter from Member country to
IRENA's Director General
• Defines rationale for roadmaps
TODAY'S ENERGY SYSTEM
SMALL ISLANDS
• Capacity expansion and dispatching analysis can be combined to deliver an optimal system
• Limited total investment: Optimal system can be installed as a single project
replacing the existing electricity system
BIG ISLANDS
• Optimal generation mix too costly for one project
• Analysis provides project time-line of inves-tments to meet demand over period of ro-admap
• Dispatching investigates the impact of each project to ensure optimal evolution of power system
FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM
• Identifies the least-cost, technically sound energy mix to meets government’s policy priorities• For most islands focuses on electricity generation, the sector where renewables can have the greatest impact• Delivers quantitative insights from detailed modeling of power system capacity expansion and dispatching
SCOPE OF WORK• Defines analysis and deliverables based on: • Government priorities • Available data
ROADMAP ANALYSIS• Determines least-cost future energy system • Provides specific policy recommendations
WORKSHOP• Analysis results discussed with government and stakeholder• Workshop insights incorporated into final report
REPORT• Delivered for government endorsement• Gives full analysis details and recommendations• Additional deliverables can include: • Models developed • Communications materials
Roadmaps support an Island's transition to renewable energy by providing clear pathways for the deployment of renewables that cover the necessary technical, economic and policy elements. The roadmap analysis is usually centred on identifying the least-cost power system for the future, with additional assessments of how this system would be optimally dispatched. This analysis can be supported by an examination of the potential for renewables in end-uses and other sectors such as: heating, cooling and transportation.The roadmap also contains specific policy recommendations to enable its implementation.
NATIONAL ENERGY ROADMAPS FOR ISLANDS
Government
Energy sector stakeholders IRENA
International /regionalpartners
Capacity expansion
Optimal future
generation mix
Dispatching model
Roadmap quantitative insights
Roadmap policy recommendations
Grid integration study• Examines power sector investment options and operational costs• Determines least-cost system to meet long term demand (10 to 20+ years)
• Least-cost power system is dispatched with high time resolution• Identifies operational constraints and cost impacts
• Complementary analysis based on roadmap insights• Very high time resolution • Identifies specific measures that address operational constraints
• Quantitative insights used to develop policy recommendations• Typically address transitioning from a power system where costs are
driven by fuel consumption to a renewables system where costs are driven by upfront investments
• The roadmap included six scenarios to provide insighton the impact of key energy sector decisions including:
• Deploying an undersea electrical cable • The potential for natural gas generation
• Renewables played a key role in all scenarios covering 26 to 40 percent of 2030 demand
• The roadmap included analysis on integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) covering:
• Recommendations on VRE forecasting • Options for VRE to provide grid support services
Roadmap gives detailed insight on how renewables can reduce power sector costs. Roadmap identifies options to support battery storage deployment.
Capacity expansion model shows that renewables can reduce generation costs.
Roadmaps optimized 2025 system grealy expands PV generation.
REmap analysis provides insight on integrating higher shares of PV and wind.Dominican Republic REmap 2030 analsys shows significant renewables capacity expansion is possible.
Roadmap shows that PV curtailment is a potential issueand identifies specific measures to boost RE share.
Least-cost capacity expansion plan 2015-2030
Production cost modelling of 2014 and 2030 scenarios
Capacity expansion
Dispatching
Capacity expansion
Dispatching
Capacity expansion
Dispatching
BARBADOS
Least-cost capacity expansion plan 2015-2030
EU JRC performed production cost modelling of 2030 scenarios
CYPRUS
Least-cost system design and modular deployment 2015-2025 for two main islands
Optimized dispatch of 2014 and 2025 least-cost system for two main islands
KIRIBATI
REmap analysis identified the potential for RE in the energy mix by 2030
VRE penetration and transmission bottlenecks estimated based on projected VRE generation and duration curves
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ROADMAP
Renewablesintegrationmeasures