National - CoreLogic...National-4%-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Feb-90 Feb-97 Feb-04 Feb-11 Feb-18 Combined...

©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.

Housing market

update

March 2018

1

National


Number of dwellings

9.9 million

Outstanding

mortgage debt

$1.73 trillion

Household wealth

held in housing

52.2%

Total sales p.a.

462.593

Gross value of

sales p.a.

$296.4 billion

The value of Australian housing sits at $7.5

trillion

2Source: CoreLogic, RBA, ASX, ABS, APRA

Residential Real Estate

$7.5 Trillion

Australian Superannuation

$2.5 Trillion

Australian Listed Stocks

$1.9 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate

$0.972 Trillion


-2.4%

-0.4%

-0.1%

0.1%

-0.7%

3.2%

-2.0%

-0.2%

-1.2%

0.9%

-0.8%

-5% 0% 5%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Feb-90 Feb-97 Feb-04 Feb-11 Feb-18

Combined capitals Combined regionals

While capital city dwelling values have fallen

over the quarter, regional markets have seen

a rebound in growth

3Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Feb-18


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Feb-83 Feb-90 Feb-97 Feb-04 Feb-11 Feb-18


-0.5%

6.9%

1.8%

2.2%

-2.7%

13.1%

-7.4%

3.2%

2.0%

2.8%

2.2%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

The gap between the annual change in

capital city and regional markets is widening

as capital city value growth slows sharply

4Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to Feb-18


The higher valued housing stock is leading

the declines across the market

5Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles, National as at February 2018

1.5%0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

-0.1%-0.6%

-1.3%

-2.6%

1.4% 1.2%2.1%

3.7%

4.8%5.2%

4.5%3.6%

3.1%

-1.5%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

Quarterly Annual


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


6Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling values

Sydney dwelling values

have fallen by -2.4%

over the three months

to February 2018 and

they are -0.5% lower

over the past year.

Dwelling values across

Sydney are now -3.7%

lower than their July

2017 peak.

Sydney

Combined

capitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


7Source: CoreLogic


Dwelling values have

fallen by -0.4% over the

three months to

February 2018 in

Melbourne. Over the

past year dwelling

values are 6.9% higher

although they are now

-0.4% lower than they

were at their peak in

November 2017.

Melbourne

Combined

capitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


8Source: CoreLogic


Brisbane home values

decreased by -0.1%


to February 2018

however, they are

1.8% higher over the

past year. Dwelling

values in Brisbane are

now -0.1% lower than

they were at their

December 2017 peak

BrisbaneCombined

capitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


9Source: CoreLogic


Dwelling values in

Adelaide increased by

0.1% over the three

months to February

2018 and are 2.2%

higher over the past

year. Dwelling values

in Adelaide are now

-0.2% lower than their

December 2017 peak.

Adelaide

Combined

capitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


10Source: CoreLogic


Perth dwelling values

fell by -0.7% over the

three months to

February 2018 and

they are -2.7% lower

over the past year.

Dwelling values in

Perth are now -11.0%

lower than they were

at their peak in June

2014.

Perth

Combined

capitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


11Source: CoreLogic


Dwelling values in

Hobart rose 3.2% over

the three months to

February 2018 and are


past year. House

values have increased

by 13.6% over the

past 12 months and

unit values have

increased by 10.8%.

Hobart

Combined

capitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


12Source: CoreLogic


Darwin dwelling

values fell by -2.0%


to February 2018 and

are -7.4% lower over

the past year. At the

end of February 2018,

dwelling values in

Darwin were -22.3%

lower than their

historic peak.

Darwin

Combined

capitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


13Source: CoreLogic


Dwelling values in

Canberra fell by -0.2%


to February 2018

however, they are


past year. House

values have increased

by 3.8% over the year

while unit values are

1.1% higher.

Canberra

Combined

capitals


-9.4%

-13.7%

-12.0%

1.9%

1.4%

0.3%

3.6%

-5.0%

-8.8%

-4.6%

-7.3%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000


Transaction numbers remain lower than a year

ago due to fewer settled sales in the largest

capital cities

14Source: CoreLogic

Number of settled sales, combined capitals Year on year change in annual sales


2.3%

3.8%

0.5%

2.8%

-1.6%

10.2%

-1.6%

4.4%

2.2%

2.8%

2.4%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%



Regional markets have recorded stronger

annual rental growth than capital cities over

the past year

15Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling rents Annual change in dwelling rents to Feb-18


3.2%

2.9%

4.4%

4.3%

3.9%

5.0%

5.9%

4.5%

3.4%

4.9%

3.7%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

3%

4%

5%

6%



Gross rental yields have continued to lift

from record low levels as rental growth

outpaces value growth in many cities

16Source: CoreLogic

Gross rental yields Gross rental yields as at Feb-18


-12.5%

-8.3%

-5.9%

-5.6%

-5.5%

-5.2%

-5.1%

-3.7%

-6.1%

-14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0%

Darwin

Perth

Adelaide

Brisbane

Sydney

Hobart

Melbourne

Canberra

Combined caps

38

46

61

66

68

71

77

86

63

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Hobart

Adelaide

Melbourne

Canberra

Sydney

Brisbane

Perth

Darwin

Combined caps

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Jan 06 Jan 09 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan 06 Jan 09 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18

Average days on market, Combined capitals

Despite the seasonal spike, dwellings are

generally taking longer to sell than they

were a year ago

17Source: CoreLogic

Average rate of vendor discounting, Combined capitals


StateNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

NSW 13,873 3.5% 50,229 10.7%

Vic 12,757 0.0% 49,990 -5.3%

Qld 10,627 -3.6% 63,230 -3.1%

SA 2,945 -7.2% 18,086 -1.4%

WA 6,223 6.1% 35,998 0.8%

Tas 1,089 -14.3% 5,610 -25.1%

NT 240 -6.3% 2,088 -1.2%

ACT 805 -12.8% 2,356 4.3%

National 48,559 -0.2% 227,587 -0.8%

Capital cityNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

Sydney 8,595 5.3% 26,656 27.4%

Melbourne 9,398 0.8% 30,675 6.1%

Brisbane 4,544 -7.9% 19,945 -0.9%

Adelaide 2,147 -5.4% 8,543 4.5%

Perth 4,521 6.8% 22,005 2.4%

Hobart 408 -19.8% 1,083 -36.0%

Darwin 172 -9.0% 1,493 -2.9%

Canberra 784 -13.2% 2,261 3.4%

Combined capitals 30,569 0.2% 112,661 7.3%

Nationally there are fewer properties

advertised for sale than a year ago but

across individual capital cities the trends

vary substantially

18Source: CoreLogic

Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 25 February 2018


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18

Nu

mb

er

of

au

cti

on

s

Cle

ara

nce r

ate

Auction clearance rates are higher than

they were late last year but are lower than

they were 12 months ago

19Source: CoreLogic

Combined capital city auction clearance rates and volumes


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Jun-87 Jun-97 Jun-07 Jun-17

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jun-87 Jun-97 Jun-07 Jun-17

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000

Jun-82 Jun-87 Jun-92 Jun-97 Jun-02 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17

1.6%

2.3%

1.6%

0.6%

0.8%

0.6%

0.1%

1.7%

1.6%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUST

Housing demand: overseas migration

continues to trend much higher

20Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Quarterly change in national population

Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population

Rolling 4 qtr average


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Dec-87 Dec-92 Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17

Houses Units

Although dwelling approvals are down from

their record high levels they remain well above

long-term average levels


Number of dwellings approved for construction, National

Rolling 6 mth average


$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

$18.0

Dec-97 Dec-01 Dec-05 Dec-09 Dec-13 Dec-17

($b

)

Owner occupier FHB

Owner occupier non-FHB

Owner occupier refinance

Investors

Demand for finance from first home buyers

continues to climb as investor mortgage

demand continues to fade


Value of housing finance commitments by borrower type


45.6%

16.9%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Sep

-08

Sep

-09

Sep

-10

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Sep

-15

Sep

-16

Sep

-17

23

APRA 10% speed limit

Regulatory changes and higher mortgage rates,

have impacted on investment demand and

interest-only demand has shrunk significantlyAnnual change in housing credit

% of mortgages originated on interest only terms

Source: CoreLogic, APRA

Monthly change in housing creditAPRA 30% origination target

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18

Owner occupier housing Investment housing

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18

Owner occupier housing Investment housing


-0.05%

0.05%

0.15%

0.30%

0.35%

0.30%

Variable, standard

Variable, discounted

Variable, 3-year fixed

Variable, standard



Ow

ner

occ

up

ier

Inve

stor

Change in avg mortgage rate since low point, Jan 2018

5.20%

4.50%

4.15%

5.80%

5.10%

4.45%

Variable, standard



Variable, standard



Ow

ner

occ

up

ier

Inve

stor

Avg mortgage rate by product type, Jan 2018

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Jan-58 Jan-63 Jan-68 Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13 Jan-18

Mortgage rates remain around historic lows

for owner occupiers but have edged higher for

investors

24Source: CoreLogic, RBA

Standard variable mortgage rates over time


Commercial Research

Update

March 2018

25


The construction pipeline saw 1,636 new

proposals across Australia, worth a

combined $12.6 billion in February

26

PID 7218519: $3.5

billion in works

proposed for the Wilton

North Precinct

QoQ

Change:

-21.6%

YoY

Change:

-23.7%

Number of Projects

QoQ

Change:

+4.2%

YoY

Change:

+41.4%

Value of Projects


Across Australia, there were 713 projects

that moved into construction, worth a

combined $5.1 billion in February

27

QoQ

Change:

-7.8%

YoY

Change:

+4.4%

Number of Projects

QoQ

Change:

+9.7%

YoY

Change:

+45.5%

Value of Projects


CoreLogic preliminary results suggest an

average commercial auction clearance

rate of 54.6% over February

28

Share of Commercial Auction Sale by Type, Australia Wide – February

Industrial Retail Hotel & Leisure Office Medical & Misc.

40% 26% 3% 26% 5%

©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 29

About Us

CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data and analytics

company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New Zealand and Asia, and

recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost information provider Cordell. With

Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the company’s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory and

proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed

coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information.

With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related services

to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance, developers, wealth management and

government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial

services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk.

CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or visit

www.corelogic.com.au

CoreLogic produces an advanced suite of housing market analytics that provides key insights for understanding housing market conditions at a granular

geographic level. Granular data is often used for portfolio analysis and benchmarking, risk assessments and understanding development feasibility and

market sizing. It gives industry professionals valuable modules which provide essential analytics and insights for decision making and strategy formation

within the residential property asset class. We can tailor reports to suit your business requirements.

Call us on 1300 734 318 or email us at [email protected] or visit us at www.corelogic.com.au


Market Scorecard: Monitor and measure market share and performance of real estate agents at an individual office or a Franchise brand level

across Australia. Identify the competing brands and independents at a suburb, postcode, user defined territory and State level. Easily locate

growth opportunities and market hotspots, and view the performance of the established offices in these new areas of interest.

Market Trends: Detailed housing market indicators down to the suburb level, with data in time series or snapshot and segmented across

houses, units and land. The Market Trends data includes key housing market metrics such as median prices, median values, transaction

volumes, rental statistics, vendor metrics such as average selling time and vendor discounting rates.

CoreLogic Indices: The suite of CoreLogic Indices range from simple market measurements such as

median prices through to repeat sales indices and our flagship hedonic home value indices. The CoreLogic Hedonic index has been specifically

designed to track the value of a portfolio of properties over time and is relied upon by Australian regulators and industry as the most up to date

and accurate measurement of housing market performance.

Economist Pack: A suite of indices and indicators designed specifically for Australian economic commentators who require the most up to date

and detailed view of housing market conditions. The economist pack includes the CoreLogic Hedonic indices for capital cities and ‘rest of state’

indices, the stratified hedonic index, hedonic total return index, auction clearance rates and median prices.

Investor Concentration Report: Understanding ownership concentrations is an important part of assessing risk. Areas with high investor

concentrations are typically allocated higher risk ratings due to the over-representation of a particular segment of the market. Through a series

of rules and logic, CoreLogic RP Data has flagged the likely ownership type of every residential property nationally as either owner occupied,

investor owned or government owned.

Mortgage Market Trend Report: CoreLogic RP Data is in a unique position to monitor mortgage related housing market

activity. Transaction volumes, dwelling values and mortgage related valuation events all comprise our Mortgage market

trend report which provides an invaluable tool for mortgage industry benchmarking and strategy.

Granular Data and Analytics


Disclaimer

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or

completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body

corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it

may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland Data

Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines)2017. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and

agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in

negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.

South Australian Data

This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. Copyright in that data belongs to the South Australian Government. The South

Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying

data.

New South Wales Data

Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.

Victorian Data

The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will

constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying

upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.

Western Australian Data

Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2017) trading as Landgate.

Australian Capital Territory Data

The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be

reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box

1908 Canberra ACT 2601.

Tasmanian Data

This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The

Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:

a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and

b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data. Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania

http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au

Disclaimer


Thank You

National - CoreLogic...National-4%-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Feb-90 Feb-97 Feb-04 Feb-11 Feb-18 Combined...

Documents

Transcript of National - CoreLogic...National-4%-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Feb-90 Feb-97 Feb-04 Feb-11 Feb-18 Combined...