National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology · Latest 30-day Southern Oscillation...

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 28 August 2014

National Climate and Water Briefing Lake Burley Griffin (Photo: Paul Sheahan)


Welcome

Dr Rob Vertessey Director, Bureau of Meteorology


Climate conditions and outlook

Dr David Jones Climate Information Services

Photo: Malcolm Watson Dandenong Ranges, Victoria (Photo: David Jones)


Climate

Conditions and outlook

• Recent conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers

• Outlook for rainfall and temperature


Minimum temperature anomalies

Temperatures

July

Maximum temperature

• Nationwide 0.9 °C above normal

• Tasmania 5th highest on record New South Wales 7th highest

Minimum temperature

• Nationwide 0.3 °C below normal

• No state or territory in top or bottom 10

Maximum temperature anomalies


Minimum temperature anomalies

Temperatures

May–July

Maximum temperature

• Australian anomaly +1.0 °C (9th highest on record)

• Tasmania 3rd highest on record New South Wales 4th Victoria and South Australia 7th Queensland 10th

Minimum temperature

• Australian anomaly +0.6 °C

• Victoria 2nd highest on record Tasmania 5th South Australia 8th

Maximum temperature anomalies


Loxton, South Australia, 4 August 2014 Image c/o Harris family, Loxton

Frost

Early August

• Reports of frost damage—parts of Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales

• Frost after warm days earlier in season probably exacerbated damage

• Monthly average temperature will be unremarkable

Minimum temperature 4 August 2014


• El Niño-like rainfall pattern for much of 2014

• Ongoing dry in Queensland and parts of New South Wales, with some relief in August

Rainfall deciles, July 2014 Rainfall deciles, May–July 2014

Rainfall


August rainfall

• Widespread rainfall across inland areas, then along eastern seaboard

• Great Dividing Range tended to miss out

• Low August climatological rainfall inflates significance of the event

• Totals typically in 20–50 mm range

• Won't 'break' the drought

13 to 19 August 2014

Percentage monthly rainfall, to 27 August

AM 27 August 2014


• Significant deficiencies in eastern Australia ranging from 6 to 24 months

• Developing along the east coast and parts of Victoria

• Low August rainfall will add to pattern in southern areas

• Total deficiencies ~200–500 mm

8 month rainfall deficiencies (December 2013–July 2014)

22 month rainfall deficiencies (October 2012–July 2014)

Rainfall deficiencies


23 month rainfall deficiencies (October 2012–August 2014)

• Significant deficiencies in eastern Australia ranging from 6 to 24 months

• Developing along the east coast and parts of Victoria

• Low August rainfall will add to pattern in southern areas

• Total deficiencies ~200–500 mm

8 month rainfall deficiencies (December 2013–July 2014)

Rainfall deficiencies


• 4th hottest July on record—following record warm April, May and June

Birch Creek Complex fires, northern Canada 15 July 2014

International climate

• 2014: currently 3rd warmest year on record • Unprecedented fires in Canada, Russia and Scandinavia


Climate


• Recent conditions

• Current and forecast state of key climate drivers • Outlook for rainfall and temperature


El Niño?

Pacific Ocean patterns

May

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July

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El Niño?

Latest observations

Latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index, to 24 August Latest weekly sea surface temperatures, 18–24 August Current value +0.3° C


• ENSO Tracker eased to WATCH status in August

• 50% likelihood of El Niño developing in 2014

• This is double the normal chance of an event occurring

• Remains a significant possibility for 2014

El Niño?

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

El Niño WATCH


• Further weakening of trade winds required for a full El Niño event

• Atmosphere and ocean still need to interact, or become 'coupled'

NINO3.4 forecast from seven international climate models

Outlook for the Pacific Ocean


Photo by STR/AFP/Getty Images Global El Niño impacts

Many 'El Niño-like' impacts

• Indian rainfall: 17% below normal

• Record heat in central America

• Dry in eastern Australia

• Active northeast Pacific hurricane season (Iselle, left) and quiet Atlantic season


Climate


• Recent conditions

• Current and forecast state of key climate drivers

• Outlook for rainfall and temperature


Rainfall outlook

Spring

• September: dry across much of Australia

• October: dry along Kimberley coast, no strong signal elsewhere

• Spring: drier in southeast, no strong tendency towards wetter or drier elsewhere

September October September–November


Maximum temperature outlook

Spring


• September: warm in southern Australia

• October: warm in the southeast, northern Queensland and Northern Territory

• Spring: warm in southern Australia and northern tropics


Minimum temperature outlook

Spring


• September: warm in the south, cooler in the north

• October: warm in southeast, cooler along Kimberley coast

• Spring: warm across southern Australia


In summary

• El Niño still possible for 2014

• Long-term rainfall deficiencies persist for Queensland and northern New South Wales

• Above average temperatures continue

Outlook

• No strong signal for wetter or drier than normal season

• Warmer than normal days and nights in the south


25 years in the making…


• Outlooks for individual months, as well as season

• More interactive—zoom in to your area

• More explanation—videos

• Capability for new fields and more frequent updates

• Adaptable for smartphones and tablets

• Based on user preferences

• www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks

Introducing the new-look

Climate Outlooks

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks

http://climsco.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/


Thank you

Questions?


Hydrological conditions and outlook

Dr Julien Lerat Senior Hydrologist, Forecasting systems Photo: lelebebbel - Flickr

Photo: Paul Feikema Currarong, New South Wales (Photo: Sophie Lerat)


Hydrological conditions and

outlook

• Recent hydrological conditions • Water storage levels

• Streamflow outlook


Rainfall

• Average to well below average in eastern Australia

• Well below average in Murray–Darling Basin

Evapotranspiration

• Relatively low

• Mainly limited by water availability

Rainfall deciles, July 2014 Actual evapotranspiration, July 2014

Rainfall and evapotranspiration


Lower layer soil moisture, end-July 2014 Annual change, to end-July 2014

Lower layer soil moisture


Rainfall and lower soil moisture, to July 2014

• High moisture levels in southern parts of South Australia and northern Queensland

• Low in central Queensland and Northern New South Wales

• Decrease in moisture content along New South Wales coast

Lower layer soil moisture, end-July 2014

Lower layer soil moisture


• High flows at 30 locations

• Near median flows at 24 locations

• Low flows at 20 locations

Observed streamflow terciles, 2013–14 Observed streamflows, July 2014

Observed streamflows



outlook

• Recent hydrological conditions

• Water storage levels • Streamflow outlook


Water storage levels

Compared to same time last year

As at 19 August 2014



Copeton dam

Halls Creek at Bingara

Photo: Matthew Rosser, Panoramio



Copeton dam

Halls Creek at Bingara



outlook

• Recent hydrological conditions

• Water storage levels

• Streamflow outlook


• High flows more likely at 19 locations

• Near median flows at 41 locations

• Low flows at 14 locations

• Generally moderate forecast skill

Streamflow forecasts

August–October 2014

Most likely streamflow outcome

Forecast skill


In summary • Wet conditions in southern parts of South Australia

• Continuing dry conditions in central Queensland and northern New South Wales

• Situation likely to remain similar during coming months


Thank you

Questions?


Next briefing

Thursday, 25 September 2014 Clare, South Australia (iStock – Ben Goode)

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