30 November 2017

National Climate and

Water Briefing

Peter Gooday

ABARES

Welcome

Image: The Australian

Climate and water

conditions and outlook

Dr Robert Pipunic Water Forecasting Services, Bureau of Meteorology

Photo: Luke Shelley

Recent conditions

• Recent conditions

• Evolution of climate drivers

• End of year outlook

Spring temperatures

September October November (to 27th)

Max

Min

(to 28th)

Notable November temperatures and impacts

Western Victoria: Frost, 4 November

Perth region: Warmest November start at various stations

(e.g. Max. >30 °C for 13 consecutive days in first half of

November at Pearce RAAF base)

Tasmania: On track for record statewide max.

(most consecutive days of State average max. >24 °C)

Victoria: On track for well above

average statewide max.

Southwest WA: On track for record

monthly average Max.

Damage to crops

'Frost impacts like a bushfire'

(The Wimmera Mail-Times News, 24/11/17)

November maximum temperature anomalies (to 27th)

Spring rainfall

September October November (to 28th)

October landscape water gain/deficit

Rainfall Rain minus

evapotranspiration

Lower-layer soil moisture (10–100 cm)

September to October change October November (to 26th)

October observed streamflow

Tasmania

South West Coast South East Coast (NSW)

South East Coast( VIC)

South West Coast

South East Coast

(NSW)

Murray–Darling

Basin

Tasmania

South East Coast

(VIC)

North East Coast

Australia-wide

North East Coast

South East Coast (NSW)

South East Coast (VIC) Tasmania

Water storage levels

As at 27 November 2017

Key northern storages for agriculture

As at 28 November 2017

Burdekin Falls storage

~80% full

Lake Argyle (Ord)

88% full

Tinaroo Falls storage

~40% full

Relatively healthy levels for agriculture

going into wet season

The northern wet season

Winter Summer

The Australian monsoon

A typical wet season

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Build-up period:

October–December

Hot, humid with isolated

thunderstorms

First onset of monsoon

usually in late December Burst (active) and break (inactive)

periods can last from a few days

to a few weeks

Wet season onset date for 2017–2018 First 50 mm of rain after 1 September

National Water Account 2017

• Northern release: Daly, Ord and Burdekin regions

• Provides comparison between geographically similar

northern regions

• Enables assessment of trends between regions and

across years

• To be released on 7 December

Lake Argyle storage

(% full) July 2014 –

30 June 2017

Daly region:

Change in aquifer

volume (ML)

2012–2017

Evolution of

climate drivers

• Recent conditions

• Evolution of climate drivers

• End of year outlook

October: La Niña WATCH

NINO3.4: –0.5 °C

Sea surface temperature anomalies (22 October)

Roughly double the normal chance of La Niña forming

November: La Niña ALERT

NINO3.4: –0.5 °C

Roughly triple the normal chance of La Niña forming

Sea surface temperature anomalies (19 November)

El Niño–Southern Oscillation outlook: October 2017

OISSTv2 (1981-2010)

NINO3.4 outlook

NIN

O3

.4 (

°C)

-2

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

observed

BOM

Canada

ECMWF

Japan

Meteofrance

NASA

NOAA

UKMOLa Niña

El Niño

El Niño–Southern Oscillation outlook: November 2017

OISSTv2 (1981-2010)

NINO3.4 outlook

NIN

O3

.4 (

°C)

La Niña

El Niño

-2

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

observed

BOM

Canada

ECMWF

Japan

Meteofrance

NASA

NOAA

UKMO

Outlooks

• Recent conditions

• Evolution of climate drivers

• End of year outlook

Maximum temperature outlook December 2017 – February 2018

Chance of exceeding median maximum

temperature

Past accuracy

Past accuracy

Past accuracy

December

January

Minimum temperature outlook December 2017 – February 2018

Chance of exceeding median minimum

temperature

December Past accuracy

Past accuracy Past accuracy

January

Rainfall outlook December 2017 – February 2018

Chance of exceeding median rainfall

January

December Past accuracy

Past accuracy Past accuracy

Seasonal streamflow outlook November 2017 – January 2018

Forecasts Forecast skill

Bushfire outlook

Summary

• La Niña ALERT (~3 times normal chance of occurring)

• Early start to wet season (>50 mm) for north Queensland and parts of Northern Territory

• High December rain likely for southeastern Australia

• Warmer than average summer likely for southeast

• November–January streamflows mostly low and near-median in southern Australia, and high

in the north

Thank you

Questions Rob Pipunic

Next briefing

Thursday, 25 January 2018

Photo: Malcolm Watson