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Transcript of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Development/Status Update “Where America’s...
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Development/Status Update
“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”
Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction
Director
1
July 11, 2011
2
Goals for Today’s Meeting
• Provide overview of NCEP• Review current ongoing NOS/NCEP
interactions since last NOS visit (July 2010)• Start the process – future strategic goals and
related steps in attaining those goals
3
Outline
• NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services
• NOAA’s Model Production Suite• Computer Capability• Update Status from Last Meeting (July,
2010)• Enabling “Operational” Ecosystem
Prediction Capabilities• Summary
4
Research, Development and Technology Infusion
Respond & Feedback
Respond & Feedback
NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services
IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD DistributeDistribute
ObserveObserve
Products & Forecast Services
To Serve Diverse Customer Base
e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency
Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation,
Health organizations (CDC…)
NCEP
Feedback
- Process- Assimilate- Predict
- Process- Assimilate- Predict
Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models
CentralGuidanceCentral
GuidanceLocal
OfficesLocal
Offices
Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
5
Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service
NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products
Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services
Space Weather Prediction Center
NCEP Central OperationsClimate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center
Aviation Weather Center
• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
• CPC Climate Test Bed
• NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed
• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed
• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL
• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with
AFWA
• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed
• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch; working with IOOS/SURA on
possible test bed
Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community
6
7
What Does NCEP Do?
- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather
- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts
- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
“From the Sun to the Sea”
• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts
• Climate Seasonal Forecasts• El Nino – La Nina Forecast• Weather Forecasts to Day 7• Extreme Events (Hurricanes,
Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)
• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings
7
8
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Forecast Uncertainty
Forecast Uncertainty
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Week
Months
Seasons
Years
NOAA’s Model Production SuiteNWS Seamless Suite of Forecasts
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Climate Forecast System
For
ecas
t L
ead
Tim
eF
orec
ast
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Coordination
Watches
Forecasts
Threats Assessments
Guidance
Outlook
Benefits
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
Ocean Model Great Lakes/ Coastal/Bay ModelsHurricane Models
Global Forecast System
North American ForecastRapid Update Cycle for Aviation
Dispersion Models for DHS- GFDL - WRF
NCEP Model Perspective
Mar
itim
eM
arit
ime
Lif
e &
Pro
pert
yL
ife
& P
rope
rty
Spa
ce O
pera
tion
sS
pace
Ope
rati
ons
Rec
reat
ion
Rec
reat
ion
Eco
syst
emE
cosy
stem
Env
iron
men
tE
nvir
onm
ent
Em
erge
ncy
Mgm
t E
mer
genc
y M
gmt
Agr
icul
ture
Agr
icul
ture
Res
ervo
ir C
ontr
olR
eser
voir
Con
trol
Ene
rgy
Pla
nnin
gE
nerg
y P
lann
ing
Com
mer
ceC
omm
erce
Hyd
ropo
wer
Hyd
ropo
wer
Fir
e W
eath
erF
ire
Wea
ther
Hea
lth
Hea
lth
Avi
atio
nA
viat
ion
9
Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model
Regional NAM
WRF NMM
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Updatefor Aviation
Climate
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite
CFS MOM4NOAHSea Ice
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
Oceans
HYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
9
Reg
iona
lD
A
Satellites + Radar99.9%
3.5B Obs/Day
NOSPORTSGLOFS
ChesapeakeTampa
Delaware
ADCIRC
SpaceWeather
(Future)
ENLIL
Cou
ple
d(F
utu
re)
Regi
onal
DA
Update Status from Last MeetingJuly 2010
10
11
Activities Timeline for NOS Interaction
• Computer “backbone” agreement - 2005• NOS/NCEP MOU – September 2008• Modeling CONOPS completed – May 2010• NOS/NCEP Leadership meeting – July 2010• Great Lakes Operational Forecast System Implementation –
December 7, 2010• SURA meeting at NCEP –
March 2, 2011• Implementation of Chesapeake Bay,
Tampa Bay and Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System – March 29, 2011
• IOOS/OPC working toward support for Ocean/Coastal test bed (ongoing)
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Current Status
• NCO now supports NOS models in operational mode– Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, Tampa Bay
• Other models now being assessed by NOS for implementation (e.g., Gulf of Mexico, Columbia River,…)
• Global HYCOM running in parallel; to be implemented by September 30, 2011
• 4 km NMMB to be implemented August 9– 4km winds for bay models
• Actively enabling (providing O2R support for) ecosystem forecasts (report out on July 5-6 workshop)
• NWS/NCEP working with IOOS to support SURA/Test bed
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJUL
Num
ber
of H
its
(Mil
lion
s)
Computing CapabilityApplied to NWS and Now NOS Model Services
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJAN
Num
ber o
f Hits
(Mill
ions
)2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
2010
• Transition to IBM Power 6 complete– Declared operational August 12,
2009– 73.1 trillion calculations/sec– Factor of 4 increase over the IBM
Power5 – 156 POWER6 32-way nodes– 4,992 processors– 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space– 3.5 billion observations/day– 27.8 Million model fields/day
• Primary: Gaithersburg, MD• Backup: Fairmont, WV
– Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes– Web access to models as they run on
the CCS– Approaching capacity limits for
existing operational computing (new system, scheduled Sept 2013)
“Enabling” Operational Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities
14
• A major goal in NWS Strategic Plan• Look to partner with NOS, OAR, NESDIS and other NOAA
components with NOS providing lead• Many opportunities to accelerate various regional-local based
Ecological Forecasting Systems
15
Summary• NCEP is
– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea”
– Working with NOAA on opportunities to “enable” and expand predictive capabilities (e.g., oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…) with success based on interdisciplinary Earth System approach
• NCEP-NOS ocean-coastal operational working relationship• NCEP-NOS CO-OPS CONOPS agreement• Increasing interactions with SURA through IOOS
– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery – working with IOOS on establishing test bed within OPC
– Enabling predictive capabilities for ecosystem and human health applications
Today’s Meeting Agenda10:30 a.m. Opening Statements – Objectives for Today
Laura Furgione, NWS DAA, D
Dr. Holly Bamford, NOS DAA
10:50 a.m. Developments/Status Update Since Last Visit to NCEP
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, NCEP Director
11:10 a.m. Collaborative Modeling Efforts: Progress and Lessons
Dr. Hendrik Tolman, Chief, Ocean Modeling Branch
Mary Erickson, Chief, Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL)
11:35 a.m. Coastal Ecological Forecasting; Vision and Prospects for Operational Services
Dr. Russell Callender, Acting Director, NCCOS/NOS
Ecological Forecasting: Report on July 5-6 Workshop
Dr. David Green, OCWWS/NWS
12:00 p.m. Vision and Prospect for an Ocean/Coastal Modling Test bed
Zdenka Willis, Director, IOOS Program
Dr. Ming Ji, Director, Ocean Prediction Center
12:30 p.m. Discussion/Working Lunch
- Review current projects underway
- Identify gaps or projected delays
- Future planned project
- Areas for future growth
- Building logical partnerships (NMFS, USACE, DOE…)
1:15 p.m. Executive Session
Execs Adjourn to NCEP Director’s Office
1:15 p.m. Technical Breakout Discussions
2:30 p.m. Regroup/Report Out/Wrap Up
3:00 p.m. Adjourn
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Appendix
17
1818
Forecast Metrics
19
CDAS/Reanl vs GFSNH/SH 500Hpa day 5
Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1979 1989 1999 2009
YEAR
An
om
aly
Co
rre
lati
on
NH GFS
SH GFS
NH CDAS/R1
SH CDAS/R1RecordValues
20
21
22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Err
or
(nau
tica
l miles
)
Year
1970-1986 trendline 1987-1996 trendline
1997-2001 trendline
Err
or
(nau
tica
l mil
es)
Year
NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors
Advances RelatedTo USWRP
Major Upgrades in Global andHurricane Numerical models
2003-2009trend line
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• Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System
• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to
hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface
radiance data• All models run within ESMF
– Models run concurrently – Fully coupled– Spanning all scales
• Operational Earth System model; enable more explicit hydro, ocean, coastal, climate and ecosystems applications
Forces for Change
Model Region 1
Model Region 2
Global/Regional Model Domain
ESMF-based System
Integrated User Requirements
Ecosystem Services such as flood and storm protection, clean water supply, safe food, healthy habitats, and beach quality, contribute $Trillions in economic activity, social, human health and commercial benefit
• Accurate weather, water & climate information is a critical driver for decisions
• QPF runoff... to maintain soil, water quality and food supply
• Coastal winds and climatology... to predict toxic algal blooms, fish stock, and public safety
• Air/Water temperature ... to forecast scenarios for pathogen progression and avoid illness
• Prediction capability can now be applied to ecosystem components to better provide integrated environmental services for decision support
25
Prototype Projects
• Currently, NCEP and other NWS offices are linked to NOAA pilot programs– Chesapeake Bay
• Beach/Water Quality• Living Resource Distribution• Dissolved Oxygen Predictions• Harmful Algal Bloom• Disease Pathogen Progression
– Gulf Coast– Gulf of Maine– Great Lakes– California Current
Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles ...
Vibrio...
Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic
Algal Blooms and Dead ZonesBarnacles, Muscles