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The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofitresearch organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research

among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community."[1] TheNBER is well known for providing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.

The NBER is the largest economics research organization in the United States.[2] Many of theAmerican winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences were NBER Research Associates. Manyof the Chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers have also been NBER Research Associates, including theformer NBER President and Harvard Professor, Martin Feldstein.

The NBER's current President and CEO is Professor James M. Poterba of MIT.

1 History

2 Research

3 Notable members

3.1 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences winners

3.2 Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chairmen

3.3 Other notable members

4 Policy impact

5 Recession markers

6 Announcement of end of 2007–2009 recession

7 References

8 External links

The NBER was founded in 1920. Its first staff economist, director of research, and one of its founders wasAmerican economist Wesley Mitchell. The Russian American economist Simon Kuznets, and student ofMitchell, was working at the NBER when the U.S. government recruited him to oversee the production of thefirst official estimates of national income, published in 1934. In the early 1940s, Kuznets' work on national

income became the basis of official measurements of GNP and other related indices of economic activity.[3] TheNBER is currently located in Cambridge, Massachusetts with a branch office in New York City.

The NBER's research activities are mostly identified by 19 research programs on different subjects and 14

Coordinates: 42.3697°N 71.1127°W

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working groups. The research programs are: Aging, Asset Pricing, Children, Corporate Finance, Developmentof the American Economy, Economics of Education, Economics of Fluctuation Growth, Energy and theEnvironment, Health Care, Health Economics, Industrial Organization, International Finance andMacroeconomics, International Trade and Investment, Labor Studies, Law and Economics, Monetary

Economics, Political Economy, Productivity, and Public Economics.[4] From this research come the NBER'sWorking Papers.

Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences winners

Christopher Sims

2011

Thomas Sargent

2011

Peter Diamond

2010

Dale Mortensen

2010

Paul Krugman

2008

Edward C.

Prescott 2004

Finn Kydland

2004

Robert F. Engle

2003

Joseph Stiglitz

2001

George Akerlof

2001

James J.

Heckman 2000

Daniel L.

McFadden 2000

Robert C. Merton

1997

Myron S. Scholes

1997

Robert E. Lucas

1995

Robert W. Fogel

1993

Gary S. Becker

1992

George J. Stigler

1982

Theodore W.

Schultz 1979

Milton Friedman

1976

Wassily Leontief

1973

Simon Kuznets

1971

Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chairmen

In chronological order

Alan

Krueger

Austan

Goolsbee

Christina

Romer

Ben

Bernanke

Harvey

Rosen

N. Gregory

Mankiw

R. Glenn

Hubbard

Janet Yellen

Joseph

Stiglitz

Michael

Boskin

Martin

Feldstein

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Edward

Lazear

Other notable members

Alberto Alesina

Robert Barro

Arthur Burns

Aaron Edlin

John Lipsky

Francis Longstaff

Anna Schwartz

Eduardo Schwartz

Richard

Zeckhauser

In one study, the NBER was ranked as the second most influential Domestic Economic Policy think tank (the

first was the Brookings Institution).[5]

The NBER is well known for its start and end dates of US recessions. The NBER uses a broader definition of arecession than commonly appears in the media. A definition of a recession commonly used in the media is twoconsecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product (GDP). In contrast, the NBER defines a recession as"a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months,

normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[6]

Business cycle dates are determined by the NBER dating committee under contract with the Department of

Commerce. Typically, these dates correspond to peaks and troughs in real GDP, although not always so.[7]

The NBER prefers this method for a variety of reasons. First, they feel by measuring a wide range of economicfactors, rather than just GDP, a more accurate assessment of the health of an economy can be gained. Forinstance, the NBER considers not only the product-side estimates like GDP, but also income-side estimates suchas the gross domestic income (GDI). Second, since the NBER wishes to measure the duration of economicexpansion and recession at a fine grain, they place emphasis on monthly—rather than quarterly—economicindicators. Finally, by using a looser definition, they can take into account the depth of decline in economicactivity. For example, the NBER may declare not a recession simply because of two quarters of very slight

negative growth, but rather an economic stagnation.[8] However, they do not precisely define what is meant by"a significant decline," but rather determine if one has existed on a case by case basis after examining theircatalogued factors which have no defined grade scale or weighting factors. The subjectivity of the determination

has led to criticism and accusations committee members can "play politics" in their determinations.[9]

Though not listed by the NBER, another factor in favor of this alternate definition is that a long term economiccontraction may not always have two consecutive quarters of negative growth, as was the case in the recessionfollowing the bursting of the dot-com bubble."The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Procedure: FrequentlyAsked Questions" (http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html). The National Bureau of EconomicResearch. For example, a repeated sequence of quarters with significant negative growth followed by a quarterof no or slight positive growth would not meet the traditional definition of a recession, even though the nation

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would be undergoing continuous economic decline.

In September 2010, after a conference call with its Business Cycle Dating Committee, the NBER declared thatthe Great Recession in the United States had officially ended in 2009 and lasted from December 2007 to June

2009.[10][11] In response, a number of newspapers wrote that the majority of Americans did not believe therecession was over, mainly because they were still struggling and because the country still faced high

unemployment.[12][13][14] However, the NBER release had noted that "In determining that a trough occurred inJune 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable orthat the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that therecession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spreadacross the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment,industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start

of the rising phase of the business cycle."[15]

^ "History of the NBER" (http://www.nber.org/info.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research.1.

^ "History of Economic Recessions" (http://www.politonomist.com/history-of-economic-recessions-00273).

Politinomist. January 2, 2009.

2.

^ Carson, Carol (1975). "The History of the United States National Income and Product Accounts: The Development

of an Analytical Tool". Review of Income & Wealth 21 (2): 153–181. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1975.tb00687.x

(http://dx.doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1475-4991.1975.tb00687.x).

3.

^ "Major NBER Programs" (http://www.nber.org/programs/program_desc.html). The National Bureau of Economic

Research.

4.

^ Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20110208215009/http://www.gotothinktank.com/wp-content/uploads

/2010GlobalGoToReport_ThinkTankIndex_UNEDITION_15_.pdf) February 8, 2011 at the Wayback Machine

5.

^ "National slowdown dims New England economic outlook" (http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts

/articles/2008/05/30/national_slowdown_dims_new_england_economic_outlook). Boston Globe. May 30, 2008.

6.

^ "The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure" (http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html). The National Bureau of

Economic Research.

7.

^ "The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions" (http://www.nber.org/cycles

/recessions_faq.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research.

8.

^ http://economy.nationaljournal.com/2010/04/who-decides-when-the-recession.php9.

^ "Recession 'over,' but the mood is glum" (http://www.buffalonews.com/city/columns/article202469.ece). Buffalo

News. September 27, 2010.

10.

^ "Economist who called recession's end sees recovery" (http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20100926

/REG/309269974). Investment News. September 28, 2010.

11.

^ "CNN Poll: Nearly three-fourths say recession not over" (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/26/recession-

not-over-public-says/). CNN. September 26, 2010.

12.

^ "Meaning of word 'recession' varies" (http://www.delmarvanow.com/article/20100928/OPINION01/9280409).

Delmarva News. September 28, 2010.

13.

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^ "Editorial: Too early to say recession has run its course in U.S." (http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/event/article

/id/46377/group/Opinion/). The Daily Republic. September 28, 2010.

14.

^ "Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research" (http://www.nber.org/cycles

/sept2010.html). National Bureau of Economic Research. September 20, 2010.

15.

Official website (http://www.nber.org)

An early history of NBER (pdf) (http://www.nber.org/nberhistory/sfabricantrev.pdf)

SEWP (Science and Engineering Workforce Project) (http://www.nber.org/~sewp)

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Categories: Research institutes in the United States Political and economic think tanks in the United States

Non-profit organizations based in Massachusetts Organizations established in 1920

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