National Bank’s Dividend All-Stars; H2/2013 Update...The NBF Daily Bulletin July 29, 2013 Industry...

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Title: Equity Research Headline: Identifying High Yield Opportunities 2011 Outlook The NBF Daily Bulletin July 29, 2013 Industry Comment Equity Research National Bank’s Dividend All-Stars; H2/2013 Update Industry Ratings: See Appendix 1 (NBF Economics & Strategy Group) National Bank analysts collectively cover over 350 TSX-listed equities, of which about half offer investors income in the form of dividends or distributions. To help navigate this universe we have assembled a portfolio that contains 29 of NBF’s favorite yield ideas, the group spanning a variety of industries, sizes and liquidity, but sharing three investment criteria: 1. Dividend/distribution yield north of ~4%; 2. Extremely low risk of the current payout proving unsustainable; and, 3. Positive analyst bias regarding the prospects for share/unit price. Takeaways NBF’s Dividend All-Stars portfolio updated Jan. 25, 2013 has returned income of 3.2% and realized an average price return of 1.7% for its first six months of 2013, this 4.9% total return ahead of the S&P/TSX composite’s 0.5% for the same period (1.5% income & -1.0% price for the index). 18 of the 29 equities (62%) outpaced the benchmark. Six All-Stars increased dividends since the last publication an average of 5% (AltaGas +4.2%, Bonterra Energy +7.7%, Dundee Industrial REIT +3.7%, EnerCare +1.8%, First National +7.7%, and Premium Brands +6.3%) and Transcontinental paid an ~8% special. Colabor’s 67% dividend cut was the first from an All-Star since the portfolio was introduced. There are nine additions this update (Aimia, AHIP, Bank of Montreal, Cathedral Energy, Cominar REIT, Crombie REIT, Sirius XM Canada, Surge Energy and Teck Resources) and nine subtractions (Bank of Nova Scotia, BCE, Cascades, Colabor, Dundee Industrial REIT, Great-West Life, Pure Industrial REIT, Transcontinental and Twin Butte). These adjustments keep the basket status quo at 29 equities. The average yield of an All-Star remains elevated at ~6%, but payout is easily funded for each, with most equities having the capacity to grow dividends/distributions over time. For investors seeking stable, predictable, elevated income and exposure to high quality companies, the following portfolio reflects NBF’s favourite ideas. Equity Ticker Share/Unit Price Dividend / Distribution Yield Analyst Aimia AIM $15.45 $0.68 4.4% Shine AltaGas ALA $35.82 $1.50 4.2% Kenny American Hotel Income Properties HOT.UN $11.20 $0.90 8.0% Johnson ARC Resources ARX $26.32 $1.20 4.6% Preston Artis REIT AX.UN $14.91 $1.08 7.2% Kornack Bank of Montreal BMO $65.53 $2.96 4.5% Routledge Baytex Energy BTE $43.46 $2.64 6.1% Preston Bonterra Energy BNE $50.05 $3.36 6.7% Payne Cathedral Energy Services CET $4.87 $0.30 6.2% Colman Cdn. Energy Services & Tech. CEU $17.96 $0.66 3.7% Colman Chemtrade Logistics CHE.UN $17.16 $1.20 7.0% Mersereau Cominar REIT CUF.UN $20.20 $1.44 7.1% Kornack Crescent Point CPG $38.64 $2.76 7.1% Preston Crombie REIT CRR.UN $13.41 $0.89 6.6% Kornack Davis+Henderson DH $24.58 $1.28 5.2% Johnson Enercare ECI $9.50 $0.68 7.2% Mersereau Exchange Income EIF $25.93 $1.68 6.5% Johnson First National FN $17.50 $1.40 8.0% Khan Gibson Energy GEI $24.26 $1.10 4.5% Kenny Innergex Renewable Energy INE $8.74 $0.58 6.6% Merer Keyera KEY $56.00 $2.16 3.9% Kenny Morneau Shepell MSI $14.46 $0.78 5.4% Johnson Premium Brands PBH $19.06 $1.25 6.6% Aghazarian Sirius XM Canada XSR $7.10 $0.42 5.9% Shine Surge Energy SGY $5.53 $0.40 7.2% Taylor Teck Resources TCK.B $24.41 $0.90 3.7% Nagle Vermilion Energy VET $55.00 $2.40 4.4% Preston WesternOne Equity WEQ $7.83 $0.60 7.7% Johnson Whitecap Resources WCP $11.15 $0.63 5.7% Taylor Average 5.9% NBF DIVIDEND ALL-STARS: H2/13 UPDATED PORTFOLIO Source: NBF; Pricing as at Thursday, July 25th Trevor Johnson Leon Aghazarian Greg Colman Patrick Kenny Shubha Khan Matt Kornack Rupert Merer Jeremy Mersereau Shane Nagle Dan Payne Kyle Preston Peter Routledge Adam Shine Matthew Taylor

Transcript of National Bank’s Dividend All-Stars; H2/2013 Update...The NBF Daily Bulletin July 29, 2013 Industry...

  • Title: Equity Research Headline: Identifying High Yield Opportunities – 2011 Outlook

    The NBF Daily BulletinJuly 29, 2013 Industry Comment

    Equity Research

    National Bank’s Dividend All-Stars; H2/2013 Update

    Industry Ratings: See Appendix 1

    (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    National Bank analysts collectively cover over 350 TSX-listed equities, of which about half offer investors income in the form of dividends or distributions. To help navigate this universe we have assembled a portfolio that contains 29 of NBF’s favorite yield ideas, the group spanning a variety of industries, sizes and liquidity, but sharing three investment criteria:

    1. Dividend/distribution yield north of ~4%; 2. Extremely low risk of the current payout proving unsustainable; and, 3. Positive analyst bias regarding the prospects for share/unit price.

    Takeaways • NBF’s Dividend All-Stars portfolio updated Jan. 25, 2013 has returned income of 3.2% and

    realized an average price return of 1.7% for its first six months of 2013, this 4.9% total return ahead of the S&P/TSX composite’s 0.5% for the same period (1.5% income & -1.0% price for the index). 18 of the 29 equities (62%) outpaced the benchmark.

    • Six All-Stars increased dividends since the last publication an average of 5% (AltaGas +4.2%, Bonterra Energy +7.7%, Dundee Industrial REIT +3.7%, EnerCare +1.8%, First National +7.7%, and Premium Brands +6.3%) and Transcontinental paid an ~8% special. Colabor’s 67% dividend cut was the first from an All-Star since the portfolio was introduced.

    • There are nine additions this update (Aimia, AHIP, Bank of Montreal, Cathedral Energy, Cominar REIT, Crombie REIT, Sirius XM Canada, Surge Energy and Teck Resources) and nine subtractions (Bank of Nova Scotia, BCE, Cascades, Colabor, Dundee Industrial REIT, Great-West Life, Pure Industrial REIT, Transcontinental and Twin Butte). These adjustments keep the basket status quo at 29 equities.

    • The average yield of an All-Star remains elevated at ~6%, but payout is easily funded for each, with most equities having the capacity to grow dividends/distributions over time.

    • For investors seeking stable, predictable, elevated income and exposure to high quality companies, the following portfolio reflects NBF’s favourite ideas.

    Equity Ticker Share/Unit PriceDividend /

    Distribution Yield Analyst

    Aimia AIM $15.45 $0.68 4.4% ShineAltaGas ALA $35.82 $1.50 4.2% KennyAmerican Hotel Income Properties HOT.UN $11.20 $0.90 8.0% JohnsonARC Resources ARX $26.32 $1.20 4.6% PrestonArtis REIT AX.UN $14.91 $1.08 7.2% KornackBank of Montreal BMO $65.53 $2.96 4.5% RoutledgeBaytex Energy BTE $43.46 $2.64 6.1% PrestonBonterra Energy BNE $50.05 $3.36 6.7% PayneCathedral Energy Services CET $4.87 $0.30 6.2% ColmanCdn. Energy Services & Tech. CEU $17.96 $0.66 3.7% ColmanChemtrade Logistics CHE.UN $17.16 $1.20 7.0% MersereauCominar REIT CUF.UN $20.20 $1.44 7.1% KornackCrescent Point CPG $38.64 $2.76 7.1% PrestonCrombie REIT CRR.UN $13.41 $0.89 6.6% KornackDavis+Henderson DH $24.58 $1.28 5.2% JohnsonEnercare ECI $9.50 $0.68 7.2% MersereauExchange Income EIF $25.93 $1.68 6.5% JohnsonFirst National FN $17.50 $1.40 8.0% KhanGibson Energy GEI $24.26 $1.10 4.5% KennyInnergex Renewable Energy INE $8.74 $0.58 6.6% MererKeyera KEY $56.00 $2.16 3.9% KennyMorneau Shepell MSI $14.46 $0.78 5.4% JohnsonPremium Brands PBH $19.06 $1.25 6.6% AghazarianSirius XM Canada XSR $7.10 $0.42 5.9% ShineSurge Energy SGY $5.53 $0.40 7.2% TaylorTeck Resources TCK.B $24.41 $0.90 3.7% NagleVermilion Energy VET $55.00 $2.40 4.4% PrestonWesternOne Equity WEQ $7.83 $0.60 7.7% JohnsonWhitecap Resources WCP $11.15 $0.63 5.7% TaylorAverage 5.9%

    NBF DIVIDEND ALL-STARS: H2/13 UPDATED PORTFOLIO

    Source: NBF; Pricing as at Thursday, July 25th

    Trevor Johnson Leon Aghazarian Greg Colman Patrick Kenny Shubha Khan Matt Kornack Rupert Merer Jeremy Mersereau Shane Nagle Dan Payne Kyle Preston Peter Routledge Adam Shine Matthew Taylor

    oliveivaForRequiredDisclosures

  • Portfolio Update • The primary objective of the NBF Dividend All-Star portfolio is to provide elevated income to investors

    through high quality, diversified companies that our analysts’ view favourably. The group’s average ~6% yield is relatively high and compelling in the context of investment alternatives, but more importantly it is underpinned by stable and growing cash flows, healthy balance sheets and encouraging operating outlooks that provide confidence that the respective management teams will be increasing payout to investors over time, not decreasing. So far this is overwhelmingly the case, with six All-Stars increasing dividends since the last publication (AltaGas, Bonterra Energy, Dundee Industrial REIT, EnerCare, First National and Premium Brands), building upon the 15 that increased payout in 2012 (45% of the portfolio). We saw the first ever Dividend All-Star be forced to cut its payout in H1 (Colabor Group); however, we believe this is an exception to the rule and not expected from the current portfolio of equities.

    • The portfolio is performing well, posting a total return of 4.9% the first six months of 2013 (3.2% income + 1.7% price), outpacing the S&P/TSX Composite’s 0.5% (1.5% income and -1.0% price). Outperforming the index is not the primary objective of this portfolio – collecting recurring, growing income is – but its performance is not surprising given the robust investor appetite for yield that continues to drive demand and valuations for this asset class higher.

    Equity Ticker Price Jan 23 2013Price July 25 2013

    % Price Change +

    Period Yield =

    Total Return

    Cdn. Energy Services & Tech. CEU $11.70 $17.96 53.5% 2.8% 56.3%Cascades CAS $4.36 $5.83 33.7% 1.8% 35.6%Whitecap Resources WCP $9.34 $11.15 19.4% 3.2% 22.6%Great-West Lifeco GWO $26.16 $30.30 15.8% 2.4% 18.2%Morneau Shepell MSI $12.68 $14.46 14.0% 3.1% 17.1%Davis+Henderson DH $21.80 $24.58 12.8% 2.9% 15.7%Transcontinental TCL.A $11.90 $12.37 3.9% 10.8% 14.8%Enercare ECI $8.63 $9.50 10.1% 3.9% 14.0%Premium Brands PBH $17.41 $19.06 9.5% 3.5% 13.0%ARC Resources ARX $23.86 $26.32 10.3% 2.5% 12.8%Bonterra Energy BNE $46.20 $50.05 8.3% 3.6% 11.9%Keyera KEY $51.15 $56.00 9.5% 2.1% 11.6%Vermilion Energy VET $51.56 $55.00 6.7% 2.3% 9.0%Chemtrade Logistics CHE.UN $16.45 $17.16 4.3% 3.6% 8.0%AltaGas ALA $34.67 $35.82 3.3% 2.5% 5.8%Gibson Energy GEI $23.87 $24.26 1.6% 2.3% 3.9%Crescent Point CPG $39.04 $38.64 -1.0% 3.5% 2.5%Bank of Nova Scotia BNS $58.22 $58.35 0.2% 2.1% 2.3%BCE Inc. BCE $43.92 $42.38 -3.5% 2.7% -0.9%First National FN $18.57 $17.50 -5.8% 3.7% -2.1%Baytex Energy BTE $46.20 $43.46 -5.9% 2.9% -3.1%Artis REIT AX.UN $16.00 $14.91 -6.8% 3.4% -3.4%Exchange Income EIF $27.76 $25.93 -6.6% 3.0% -3.6%Pure Industrial REIT AAR.UN $5.16 $4.66 -9.7% 3.0% -6.7%WesternOne Equity WEQ $8.80 $7.83 -11.0% 3.4% -7.6%Innergex Renewable Energy INE $10.23 $8.74 -14.6% 2.8% -11.7%Dundee Industrial REIT DIR.UN $11.30 $9.02 -20.2% 3.0% -17.1%Twin Butte Energy TBE $2.74 $1.75 -36.3% 3.5% -32.8%Colabor Group GCL $8.50 $4.45 -47.6% 2.8% -44.8%All-Stars Average 1.7% + 3.2% = 4.9%S&P/TSX Composite 12,794 12,669 -1.0% + 1.5% = 0.5%Source: NBF

    SIX MONTH PERFORMANCE: NBF DIVIDEND ALL-STARS VS S&P/TSX COMPOSITE

    • There are nine additions to the portfolio and nine subtractions, resulting in a status quo portfolio size of 29.

    Added RemovedAimia Bank of Nova ScotiaAHIP BCE Inc.Bank of Montreal CascadesCathedral Energy Colabor GroupCominar REIT Dundee Industrial REITCrombie REIT Great-West LifecoSirius XM Canada Pure Industrial REITSurge Energy TranscontinentalTeck Resources Twin Butte EnergySource: Company Reports, NBF

    H2/2013 PORTFOLIO ADJUSTMENTS

    • For investors seeking stable, predictable, elevated income and exposure to high quality companies, the

    NBF Dividend All-Stars represent our best ideas. Individual commentary on why each of the new additions are deserving follows, with ratings and target prices for the entire portfolio found in Appendix 1.

    Page 2

  • COMPANIES INCLUDED: AIMIA Inc.

    American Hotel Income Properties

    Bank of Montreal

    Cathedral Energy Services Ltd.

    Cominar REIT

    Crombie REIT

    Sirius XM Canada Holdings Inc.

    Surge Energy Inc.

    Teck Resources Ltd.

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  • Title: Groupe Aeroplan Inc. - AER (T) Cdn$10.42 Price: Cdn$10.42 StockRating: Outperform TargetPrice: Cdn$13.50 Headline: Q2 EBITDA Ex-Items Beats, NCIB Expands, Air Canada Issues

    Department Theme PieceMedia

    AIMIA Inc. AIM (T) Cdn$15.35Stock Rating: Outperform

    Target: Cdn$17.00 Risk Rating: Above Average

    NBF Dividend All-Star

    Global Expansion Continues But Revitalized Aeroplan Program Key To Growth Plans

    Est. Total Return 15.2%

    HIGHLIGHTS Stock Data:52-week High-Low (Canada) $16.63 - $13.0752-week High-Low (U.S.) NABloomberg/Reuters: Canada AIM CN / AIM-TBloomberg/Reuters: U.S. NA

    (FYE Dec. 31) 2012a 2013e 2014eGross Billing (mln) $2 243.0 $2 331.0 $2 312.5Revenue (mln) $2 248.9 $2 353.1 $2 550.3Adj EBITDA (mln) $398.8 $374.8 $322.0Adj EPS $1.49 $1.22 $0.97Adj P/E 10.4x 12.7x 15.9xAdj EV/EBITDA* 8.2x 8.3x 9.7xFree Cash (mln) $288.3 $263.3 $166.4P/FCF 9.2x 10.1x 16.0x*EV using forecast ND + reserves, ex-PLM dividends. EBITDA in 2012 is ex-items but includes PLM dividends. Financial Data (as at March 31, 2013): Shares Outstanding (mln) 172.4 Float (mln) 172.4Market Capitalization (mln) $2 663.2Net Debt & Adj Net Debt (mln) $-64.8/$354.0Shareholders' Equity (mln) $1 338.6Net Debt/Capital & Adj ND/C -5.1%/21.0%BVPS / Price/Book $6.81/2.2x2013e Adj ROE 16.3%Current Dividend/Yield $0.68/4.4%

    Industry Rating: (Media): Underweight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    Aeroplan undergoes a material transformation. On June 27, Aeroplan announced that it will be replacing ClassicPlus Flight Rewards with New Market Fare Flight Rewards, which will offer members significantly improved value as at least 20% fewer miles will be required for redemption. In addition, it introduced a new tiered recognition program called Distinction that will reward top accumulation members with preferential mileage levels. Finally, Aeroplan eliminated the seven-year expiry rule. The aforementioned changes are expected to increase member engagement which bodes well for Gross Billings & FCF growth post-2014.

    TD signs up as new credit card partner, CIBC has ROFR. Aeroplan appears poised to shift credit card partners after signing a 10-year deal with TD which will begin in 2014. TD will be paying a 15% higher price per mile than what CIBC is being charged, has agreed to minimum miles purchases for three years, will make a $100 million upfront payment in early 2014, and will share $140 million in marketing costs over four years. CIBC has a right of first refusal to be exercised by Aug. 9. While Gross Billings & EBITDA will decline in 2014 during the transition period to TD and given new breakage levels, Aimia’s management is confident of renewed growth starting in 2015 when it expects FCF of $250 million (~$1.45/share).

    Tribunal dismisses Competition Bureau credit card case. Over 2.5 years after the Competition Bureau launched a case against Visa & MasterCard due to their credit card practices, the Competition Tribunal dismissed the application. While we wait to see what the regulator does next, the government may eventually decide to step in to address the Bureau’s concerns.

    Aimia is rated Outperform with a $17 target. Our target, based on our 2015E NAV, implies an EV/EBITDA of 8.5x 2015E – increases to $18 if CIBC exercises its ROFR.

    Stock Performance (source: Thomson Reuters) Company Profile: AIMIA is the owner of Aeroplan, Canada’s premier loyalty marketing company. It expanded overseas on 12/20/07, with the purchase of privately-held Loyalty Management Group (now known as Groupe Aeroplan Europe), which added Nectar, one of the premier coalition loyalty companies in the U.K., a data analytics business called Intelligent Shopper Solutions, and a 60% controlling stake in Air Miles Middle East. On 12/7/09, privately-held, U.S.-based Carlson Marketing was acquired. Nectar Italia launched in March 2010. Aimia has a 49% stake in Club Premier, AeroMexico’s frequent flyer program. Adam Shine, CFA - 514-879-2302 [email protected] Associates: Piotr (Peter) Stusio, CFA – 514-879-2564 [email protected] Kevin Krishnaratne – 416-869-6585 [email protected]

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  • Title: American Hotel Income Properties - HOT.UN (T) Cdn$11.20 Price: Cdn$11.20 StockRating: Outperform TargetPrice: Cdn$13.00 Headline: Guaranteed Occupancy Ensures Yield Stability

    Department Theme PieceReal Estate

    American Hotel Income Properties HOT.UN (T) Cdn$11.20Stock Rating: Outperform

    Target: Cdn$13.00 Risk Rating: Average

    NBF Dividend All-Star

    Guaranteed Occupancy Ensures Yield Stability

    Est. Total Return 24.1%

    HIGHLIGHTS Stock Data:Cash Yield 8.0%Implied Price Return 16.1%52-week High-Low $11.75-$10.04Bloomberg/Reuters: HOT-U CN / HOT.UN-TForecasts:FYE Dec. 31 2012e 2013e 2014eOccupancy 84.0% 85.0% 84.8%Avg. Daily Room Rate $51.9 $55.2 $55.9Revenue (US$mln) $50.4 $53.0 $69.6EBITDA (US$mln) $11.1 $14.2 $19.8FFO/unit (US$) $0.80 $1.05 $1.49AFFO/unit (US$) $0.77 $0.95 $1.36Distribution/unit $0.00 $0.77 $0.90FFO Payout Ratio 0% 74% 60%AFFO Payout Ratio 0% 81% 66%EV/EBITDA 14.5x 11.3x 10.1xP/FFO 13.9x 10.7x 7.5xP/AFFO 14.5x 11.7x 8.2xFinancial Data: Units Outstanding (mln) 10.4 Market Capitalization (mln) $116.5Cash (US$ mln) $27.3Total Debt (US$ mln) $70.2Net Debt to Capitalization 27%NAV per unit ~$12.50

    Industry Rating: Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    Largest U.S. railway lodging operator American Hotel Income Properties (AHIP) operates a portfolio of 32 predominately full-service hotels, consisting of 2,500+ rooms, strategically located near rail hubs. AHIP’s primary customers are large railway companies whose employees are required by unions to have mandatory downtime between shifts. This feature provides steady occupancy and better revenue visibility than most hotels peers.

    Long-term customer relationship & guaranteed occupancyAHIP’s largest and most important customer is Union Pacific proving 70%+ of top line. The lack of diversification is, however, well mitigated by the length (23 years) and the consistency (96%+ of contracts renewed) of the relationship. Additionally, AHIP’s contracts with railway companies contain minimum occupancy guarantees and take-or-pay provisions for over 70% of available room nights.

    Positive outlook for organic and acquisition growth AHIP’s most important organic growth initiative is the targeting of non-railroad hotel guests who tend to generate higher ADR and margins as well as improve occupancy. AHIP also plans to construct new hotels particularly if supported by long-term occupancy railway company contracts. Acquisitions, on the other hand, are a more opportunistic approach with a higher price tag but to be expected as they have potential to be immediately accretive and to lower payout. The highly fragmented US lodging industry and the strategic business shift of a direct competitor provide a shopping list of acq’n targets.

    Conservative balance sheet and low payout AHIP has a net debt to 2014e EBITDA ratio of 2.2x, low vs. real estate peers and diversified equities. Similarly, its 2014e AFFO payout ratio of 66% is conservative vs. peers and very enticing in the context of an 8% yield.

    Stock Performance (Source: Thompson) Company Profile: AHIP is a portfolio of 32 hotels and 2,565 rooms, located in 19 U.S. States largely under the “Oak Tree Inn” banner. The properties are strategically located at or near rail hubs, with ~75% of rooms occupied by four railroads (Union Pacific, BNSF, CSX, CP).

    Trevor Johnson, CFA, MBA - (416) 869-8511 [email protected] Associates: Keegan McCormick - (416) 869-7809 [email protected] Endri Leno - (416) 869-8047 [email protected]

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  • Title: Great-West Lifeco Inc. - GWO (T) Cdn$22.00 Price: Cdn$22.00 StockRating: Outperform TargetPrice: Cdn$27.00 Headline: High Dividend Yield Supported by Stable Operating Model

    Department Theme PieceBanking

    Bank of Montreal BMO (T) Cdn$65.56Stock Rating: Sector Perform

    Target: Cdn$68.00 Risk Rating: Below Average

    NBF Dividend All-Star

    Strong Capital Position Will Underpin Return of Capital to Shareholders

    Est. Total Return 8%

    HIGHLIGHTS Stock Data:52-week Low-High 56.72 - 65.74Shares Outstanding EOP (mln) 647Market Capitalization ($mln) $42,528S&P/TSX Composite Weighting 2.80%

    (Year-End 10/31) 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015ECore Cash EPS $6.02 $6.06 $6.34 $6.81% Growth 17% 1% 5% 7%Net Inc. to Common EPS $6.15 $6.13 $6.41 $6.72% Growth 27% (0%) 5% 4%Dividend / Share $2.82 $2.94 $3.04 $3.20F/D Avg. Shares 649 650 639 628Price / Earnings 10.9x 10.8x 10.3x 9.6xCore Cash Net Income $3,882 $3,942 $4,053 $4,271NI to Equity Holders $4,115 $4,100 $4,209 $4,308P&C Canada $1,775 $1,768 $1,731 $1,832

    P&C U.S. 580 668 727 828Private Client Group 523 624 670 723Capital Markets 1,021 1,123 1,138 1,202Corporate Services 216 (85) (57) (278)

    Financial Data: (As of last quarter-end)Price / Book Value 1.6xDividend Information:Quarterly Dividend Per Share $0.74Dividend Yield 4.5%

    Industry Rating: Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    BMO Benefits from U.S. Exposure. The bank is positively geared to an improving economic outlook in the United States because management has successfully positioned its U.S. P&C banking platform. BMO has grown its U.S. commercial and industrial (C&I) and indirect auto loan portfolios 17% and 15%, respectively, over the past year. While the challenging U.S. interest rate environment has offset much of the beneficial impact of this growth on revenue and earnings, BMO will realize better spreads on new loans as the U.S. yield curve steepens.

    P&C Canada remains a risk. This segment has underperformed peers in terms of growth in Pre-Provision Income over the past several quarters. BMO’s most obvious response to this problem is to embark upon a major cost reduction effort and, to management’s credit, the initial building blocks appear to be in place. The bank did take a restructuring charge in Q2 f2013 to align its costs with the prevailing business environment.

    BMO has a dividend yield of 4.5%. In addition, the bank’s exceptionally strong regulatory capital position gives it ample cushion to protect the dividend in a downside scenario, or repurchase shares in an upside scenario. Share repurchases will reduce BMO’s common share payout ratio, all else equal.

    We expect that BMO will next raise its quarterly dividend to $0.76/share from $0.74/share in Q2 f2014 (to be announced in the Q1 f2014 earnings release). Thereafter, we expect dividend increases of $0.02/share every other quarter. In Q3 f2013, we expect BMO to report a quarterly common share payout ratio of 47.6%, which is in the upper half of its targeted 40% to 50% range.

    BMO continues to execute its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB). In Q2 f2013, BMO repurchased 4 million shares for $254 million, under its 15 million share NCIB. This quarter, we estimate (based on sedi.ca filings) the bank has repurchased another 4 million of its own shares.

    We rate BMO Sector Perform, with a price target of $68.00. This is 11.1x our estimated NTM EPS one year from today.

    Stock Performance Company Profile: Bank of Montreal is the fourth largest Canadian bank in terms of assets. BMO offers financial services in Canada and in the U.S. (using its Harris brand) through three lines of business. The Personal & Commercial Banking Group provides a full range of financial products and services to consumers and small businesses. The Private Client Group encompasses all of BMO’s wealth management operations. The Investment Banking Group (BMO Capital Markets) offers full financial services to institutional and government clients.

    Peter Routledge - (416) 869-7442 [email protected] Associate: Parham Fini - (416) 869-6515 [email protected]

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  • Title: Cathedral Energy Services Ltd. - CET (T) Cdn$4.65 Price: Cdn$4.65 StockRating: Outperform TargetPrice: Cdn$6.25 Headline: Growing Market Share and Robust Free Cash Flow Expected

    Department Theme PieceOil and Gas Services

    Cathedral Energy Services Ltd. CET (T) Cdn$4.65 Stock Rating: Outperform

    Target: Cdn$6.25 Risk Rating: Above Average

    NBF Dividend All-Star

    Growing Market Share and Robust Free Cash Flow Expected

    Est. Total Return 41%

    HIGHLIGHTS Shares Outstanding (mm) 35.9 Market Capitalization (mm) $174.8Net Debt (mm) $56.6Enterprise Value (mm) $231.4Dividend Yield 6.2%

    52-week High-Low $6.84 - $3.74Average Weekly VolumeNet Tangible Book Value per Share $3.53

    Estimates 2012E 2013E 2014ERevenue (mm) 203.2$ 221.4$ 257.5$ EBITDA (mm) 36.3$ 38.3$ 55.0$ CFPS 0.89$ 0.87$ 1.37$ DPS 0.30$ 0.30$ 0.30$ EPS 0.40$ 0.19$ 0.61$

    Valuation 2012E 2013E 2014EP/E (x) 12.3x 25.5x 8.0xEV/EBITDA (x) 6.1x 5.9x 3.5xTarget EV/EBITDA 7.5x 7.2x 4.4xAll amounts in Cdn$ unless otherwise noted.

    416 966

    Industry Rating: Overweight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    Leading provider of directional drilling and pressure testing in Canada and the United States. CET is one of two leading independent providers of directional drilling equipment in Canada, each with ~10%-15% market share. CET also has a U.S. directional division, which has a small but growing market share. Additionally, the company provides pressure testing services for high rate gas and gas/liquid wells on both sides of the border.

    Generating substantial free cash flow. CET pays a $0.30/yr (6.2%) dividend, with a total cost to the company of $10.7 mln. This compares very favourably with our estimated 2013 FCF of $19.6 mln ($30.7 mln funds from operations less $11.1 mln in maintenance capital), suggesting the potential for a dividend increase. In the year up to June 2013, the company also bought and cancelled 1.8 mln shares or 4.9% of the outstanding share count, for a total return of capital to shareholders of 11.1%.

    With several positive near-term catalysts. We expect (1) CET to meet Q2 expectations of $2.1 mln EBITDA on Aug. 13th versus a broader energy services sector which will likely miss and (2) announce an ~$20 mln sale and leaseback of its main real estate, reducing net debt to ~$36 mln from the current $56 mln.

    Outperform; $6.25 target. Our $6.25 target is driven by 4.4x our 2014 EV/EBITDA versus a post-2009 historic trading multiple of 5.3x. We believe the street’s expectations for CET’s EBITDA in the coming quarters is too low. Outperform.

    Stock Performance Company Profile: CET provides measurement-while-drilling services and related equipment rentals in Canada and the U.S. while also providing production testing equipment in both regions. We estimate the company holds approximately 15% of the Canadian directional market.

    Greg Colman - (416) 869-6775 [email protected] Associate: Sean Wetmore, CA, CFA - (416) 869-6763 [email protected]

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  • Title: Artis REIT - AX.UN (T) Cdn $xx Price: Cdn $xx TargetPrice: Cdn $18.00 Headline: A Good Choice for Extra Yield

    Department Theme PieceReal Estate

    Cominar REIT CUF.UN (T) Cdn $20.31Stock Rating: Outperform

    Target: Cdn $25.50 Risk Rating: Low

    NBF Dividend All-Star

    Cominar Uses Strength in Quebec to Launch Targeted Coast to Coast Expansion

    Est. Total Return 32.6%

    HIGHLIGHTS Stock Data:52-week Low $20.20

    52-week High $25.45Bloomberg/Reuters: CUF-U / CUF.un

    (Year-End Dec. 31) 10A 11A 12A 13E 14EFFO 1.64 1.65 1.77 1.85 1.94 AFFO 1.44 1.44 1.45 1.55 1.65 % change (FFO) 0.9% 7.3% 4.3% 4.9%Current Multiples

    P / FFO 12.4x 12.3x 11.4x 11.0x 10.5xP / AFFO 14.1x 14.1x 14.1x 13.1x 12.3x

    Target MultiplesTarget / FFO 15.5x 15.4x 14.4x 13.8x 13.1xTarget / AFFO 17.7x 17.7x 17.6x 16.5x 15.5x

    Distribution 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 AFFO Payout 100% 100% 100% 93% 87%Tax Deferral 72% 73% 90% 90% 90%

    Financial Data: Units Outstanding (mln) - Diluted for ITM Options 125.1 Market Capitalization (mln) $2 541Net debt (including convertible debt & cash from options, mln) $3 112Enterprise Value (mln) $5 653Debt / Total Assets (current) 48%Debt / Total Assets (including convertible debt, current) 51%Net Asset Value (NAV) / Cap rate $22.35 / 6.55%Debt / Market Value of Assets (using NAV, excl' converts) 48%Debt / Market Value of Assets (using NAV, incl' converts) 51%Premium to NAV -9.1%Current Distribution (annualized) $1.44Current Distribution yield (annualized) 7.1%

    Major Unitholders (mln) (as per Thomson One, 27-Jul-13) Units %

    Dallaire Family (incl' units held through AM Investments) 8.9 7.1%Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec 8.1 6.4%

    CI Investments 7.1 5.7%Sources: NBF, Thomson One, OSC Bulletin

    Industry Rating: Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    Attractive Yield & Potential for Distribution Increases: Cominar offers investors an attractive 7.1% yield vs. the large diversified at 5.9% and Office REITs at 5.7%. Looking at AFFO yield, which adjusts for differences in payout ratios, Cominar offers a premium to the diversified and office peers. Distribution increases become more likely as the REIT’s payout ratio approaches 90% of DI; as at Q1/13 the payout ratio was ~95%.

    Investment Grade Rating: Cominar attained a long-term issuer investment grade credit rating from DBRS on May 15, 2012. At BBB(L) it is rated in line with Artis REIT and one notch above Morguard REIT. The ability to access unsecured financing at low rates will provide for increased flexibility.

    Benefit from Acquisition Synergies, Improving Operating Metrics and Interest Savings on Mortgage Maturities: Over the course of 2013 we expect to see the impacts of synergies from scale, active management by Cominar and an uptick in occupancy. Likewise we expect growth from the REIT’s mortgage portfolio as significant 2013 and 2014 maturities come due with above-market average interest rates of 4.85% and 5.70%, respectively.

    Valuation Discount: Cominar currently trades at a moderate discount to its large diversified peers, trading at 13.1x our 2013 AFFO vs. the diversified and office comps at 14.4x and 16.5x, respectively. We expect the REIT to trade in line with, if not at a slight premium to, its diversified peers. We would anticipate unit price appreciation as Cominar executes on the integration of its recent acquisitions and marks-to-market its balance sheet.

    Stock Performance Company Profile: Cominar is the largest commercial property owner in the Province of Quebec and one of the largest diversified REITs in Canada. CUF owns a real estate portfolio of 500 properties consisting of office, retail and industrial / mixed-use buildings totalling over 37 million sq. ft. in Quebec, Ontario, Western and Atlantic Canada. The REIT is led by Michel Dallaire, one of Quebec’s foremost entrepreneurs with a long track record of creating wealth through various real estate cycles. Matt Kornack - (416) 869-6407 [email protected] Associate: Dawoon Chung - (416) 869-7102 [email protected]

    Source: Bloomberg

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  • Title: Crombie REIT - CRR.UN (T) Cdn$13.35 Price: Cdn$13.35 StockRating: RES TargetPrice: RES Headline: Defensive Structure & Portfolio with Development &

    Department Theme PieceReal Estate

    Crombie REIT CRR.UN (T) Cdn$13.35Stock Rating: RES

    Target: RES Risk Rating: RES

    NBF Dividend All-Star

    Defensive Structure & Portfolio with Development & Acquisition Pipeline

    Est. Total Return RES

    HIGHLIGHTS Stock Data:52-week Low $13.0052-week High $15.83Bloomberg/Reuters: CRR-U / CRR.un(Year-End Dec. 31) 10A 11A 12A 13E 14EFFO $1.01 $1.04 $1.06 RES RESAFFO $0.80 $0.83 $0.85 RES RES% change (AFFO) 0.0% 4.0% 2.9% RES RESCurrent Multiples

    P / FFO 13.3x 12.9x 12.6x RES RESP / AFFO 16.9x 16.2x 15.7x RES RES

    Target MultiplesTarget / FFO RES RES RES RES RESTarget / AFFO RES RES RES RES RES

    Distribution $0.89 $0.89 $0.89 RES RESAFFO Payout 112% 108% 104% RES RESTax Deferral 65% 62% 67% RES RES

    Units Outstanding (mln) 91.9 Market Capitalization (mln) $1 233Net debt (including convertible debt, mln ) $1 382Enterprise Value (mln) $2 615Debt / GBV (current/maximum permitted) 49% / 65%Debt / GBV (including conv., current / maximum) 53% / 65%Net Asset Value (NAV) / Cap rate RES / RESDebt / Market Value of Assets (using NAV, excl' converts) RESDebt / Market Value of Assets (using NAV, incl' converts) RESPremium to NAV (Current) RESCurrent Distribution (annualized) $0.89Current Distribution yield (annualized) 6.6%Major Unitholders(mln)(as per ThomsonOne & SEDI) Units %

    Empire Company Limited 39.3 42.8%CI Investments Inc. 3.1 3.4%

    Black Rock Asset Management 2.3 2.5%Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel 2.2 2.4%

    Sources: NBF, Thomson One, OSC Bulletin Industry Rating: Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    Attractive Yield: Crombie offers an attractive yield of 6.6% vs. 5.5% for its large-cap retail comparables (REI.un, FCR & CWT.un).

    Defensive Structure and Portfolio: CRR has the longest weighted average term to maturity on leases in the Canadian public retail REIT universe at 10.3 years vs. an average of 6.8 years for its peers. Likewise, its weighted average debt maturity is 7.7 years vs. 4.8 years for the comps.

    Upside Potential on Low Occupancy: While Crombie’s core portfolio offers less organic growth through rent steps, its lower occupancy of 93.5% vs. the peer group at ~97% is a potential catalyst for medium-term NOI improvement. In spite of occupancy pressures the REIT was able to generate same property NOI growth.

    Relationship with Empire: The REIT has an exclusive relationship with the development arm of Empire, which provides CRR with a pipeline of newly constructed and existing retail centres. The key is that the REIT will get access to this new, highly sought after real estate without having to take on the development risk and related short-term dilution..

    Stock Performance Company Profile: Crombie REIT was formed in March 2006 when Empire Company Limited transferred 44 of its commercial properties into the REIT. Crombie’s portfolio consists primarily of defensive grocery-anchored retail plus a small office and mixed-use component. In total the REIT has 175 properties (15 million sq. ft.), located in nine provinces. Sobeys is the REIT’s largest tenant.

    Matt Kornack - (416) 869-6407 [email protected] Associate: Dawoon Chung - (416) 869-7102 [email protected]

    Source: Bloomberg

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  • Title: Groupe Aeroplan Inc. - AER (T) Cdn$10.42 Price: Cdn$10.42 StockRating: Outperform TargetPrice: Cdn$13.50 Headline: Q2 EBITDA Ex-Items Beats, NCIB Expands, Air Canada Issues

    Department Theme PieceMedia

    Sirius XM Canada Holdings Inc. XSR (T) Cdn$7.10Stock Rating: Outperform

    Target: Cdn$8.50 Risk Rating: Above Average

    NBF Dividend All-Star

    Post-Merger Focus Evolves From Synergies & Dividend Introduction To Top-Line Growth

    Est. Total Return 25.6%

    HIGHLIGHTS Stock Data:52-week High-Low (Canada) $8.18 - $3.5552-week High-Low (U.S.) NABloomberg/Reuters: Canada XSR CN / XSR-TBloomberg/Reuters: U.S. NA

    (FYE Aug. 31) 2012a 2013e 2014eRevenue (mln) $259.6 $289.7 $324.4Adj. EBITDA (mln) $46.6 $67.9 $86.0FD EPS ex-items -$0.02 $0.09 $0.28P/E nm nm 25.4xEV/EBITDA 20.9x 14.3x 11.1xFree Cash (mln) $36.6 $54.9 $67.3FCF per share $0.30 $0.44 $0.54Dividend $0.00 $0.42 $0.42Dividend / FCF nm 79.4% 77.2%* All figures on a pro forma basis. Financial Data (as at May 31, 2013): Shares Outstanding (mln) 123.7 Float (mln) 17.6Market Capitalization (mln) $878.1Net Debt $94.2Shareholders' Equity (mln) $15.8Net Debt/Capital 85.6%BVPS / Price/Book $0.13/NMFDividend / Yield $0.42/5.9%

    Industry Rating: (Media): Underweight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    Pricing initiatives helping to drive ARPU higher. Having achieved its merger-related savings target of $20 million during f2012, Sirius XM Canada (XSR) announced several initiatives effective Oct. 1, 2012 aimed at driving ARPU higher. The company increased the price of its basic monthly service by $1 to $15.99. It introduced “Best of” programming at $4/month as well as enhanced Internet radio and mobile listening apps also for an incremental $4/month.

    OEM penetration rising, used car market an opportunity. While leveraging pricing initiatives and steadily increasing its OEM penetration beyond a current level of 57% (U.S. at 67%), management has made it a priority starting in f2013 to establish itself in the pre-owned vehicle market, especially as the number of satellite-equipped cars in Canada is expected to rise to 10 million in f2018 from four million in f2013. We look for some traction in this effort to be achieved over coming quarters, with our related estimates still rather conservative.

    Balance sheet getting progressively stronger. We see leverage contracting to 1.4x in f2013, 0.9x in f2014 and 0.5x in f2015 from 1.5x currently.

    FCF growth bodes well for ongoing dividend growth. After introducing a dividend on Nov. 19, 2012, XSR increased its annualized payment on July 10 by 27.3% – payout looks like 75%-80% of f2014E FCF. Given a solid FCF growth profile (+22.6% in f2014E, +16.6% in f2015E), low capex, the expectation of lower interest costs post-f2014, no cash taxes for several years, a lack of obvious M&A opportunities and a limited share float, we believe that dividend hikes will be the Board’s preferred option for returning capital to shareholders.

    Sirius XM Canada is rated Outperform, $8.50 target. Our target, based on our f2014E DCF, implies EV/EBITDA multiples of 16.8x f2013E, 13.1x 2014E and 11.7x f2015E.

    Stock Performance (source: Thomson Reuters) Company Profile: Sirius XM Canada Holdings Inc. (formerly Canadian Satellite Radio Holdings Inc.) commenced its operations, as one of two subscription-based satellite radio operators in Canada, on November 22, 2005 and completed its initial public offering on December 12, 2005. On November 24, 2010, CSR announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement to combine its operations with SIRIUS Canada. The merger was completed, following regulatory approvals, on June 21, 2011.

    Adam Shine, CFA - 514-879-2302 [email protected] Associates: Piotr (Peter) Stusio, CFA – 514-879-2564 [email protected] Kevin Krishnaratne – 416-869-6585 [email protected]

    Page 10

  • Title: Surge Energy Inc. - SGY (T) Cdn$5.34 Price: Cdn$5.34 StockRating: Outperform TargetPrice: Cdn$7.50 Headline: Recent acquisition accelerates the transition to a yield model

    Department Theme PieceOil & Gas Exploration and Production

    Surge Energy Inc. SGY (T) Cdn$5.34Stock Rating: Outperform

    (Unchanged) Target: Cdn$7.50 (Unchanged) Risk Rating: Above Average

    NBF Dividend All-Star

    Recent acquisition accelerates the transition to a yield model

    (Unchanged) Est. Total Return 48%

    HIGHLIGHTS Stock Data 52-week High-Low (Cdn$) $2.68 - $8.85Shares Outstanding (mln) 121.0Yield 7.6%Net Debt Q3/13e (mln) $197Market Cap. (mln) $638Enterprise Value (mln) $835

    Production 2012a 2013e 2014eOil & NGL's (bbls/d) 6,181 8,073 9,438Nat. Gas (mcf/d) 16,151 16,362 15,972Boe/d (6:1) 8,873 10,800 12,100% Nat. Gas 30% 25% 22%

    Pricing 2012a 2013e 2014eWTI (US$/bbl) $94.10 $96.00 $92.00AECO (Cdn$/mcf) $2.38 $3.45 $3.80Corp. Oil & NGL's ($/bbl) $78.01 $82.48 $80.74Corp. Nat. Gas ($/mcf) $2.73 $3.77 $4.07Corp. Wellhead ($/boe) $59.30 $67.36 $68.35* Strip pricing 13/14 (as at 07/02/2013)Estimates 2012a 2013e 2014eCash Flow (mln) $92.2 $126.7 $156.7CFPS - diluted $1.30 $1.32 $1.30CF Netback ($/boe) $29.41 $32.65 $35.48Capex (mln) $290.4 $315.2 $85.0Net Debt (mln) $220.6 $195.7 $172.4

    Valuation 2012a 2013e 2014eP/CF 6.1 x 4.0 x 4.1 xEV/DACF 7.3 x 6.1 x 4.8 xNet Debt / CF 2.4 x 1.5 x 1.1 xEV/BOE/D $81,489 $75,601 $65,554P/NAVPS 0.8xEV/boe P+P $15.31Source: Company reports, NBF estimates Industry Rating (Oil & Gas Exploration and Production): Overweight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    Strategic acquisition highlights. SGY recently acquired 54 contiguous sections of high OOIP (+250mmbbl,

  • Title: Teck Resources Ltd. - TCK.B-T/TCK-US $25.11/US$24.44 Price: StockRating: Sector Perform TargetPrice: $27.75 Headline: Returning Capital to Shareholders via Stay-the-Course Strategy

    Department Theme PieceMetals & Mining

    Teck Resources Ltd. TCK.B-T/TCK-US $25.11/US$24.44Stock Rating: Sector Perform

    Target: $27.75 Risk Rating: Above Average

    NBF Dividend All-Star

    Returning Capital to Shareholders via Stay-the-Course Strategy

    Est. Total Return (incl. D/Y) 14%

    HIGHLIGHTS Stock Data:52-week range (Cdn$) $21.11 - $38.13

    Current Price (Cdn$) $24.41

    Dividend $0.90

    Dividend Yield 3.69%

    Bloomberg/Reuters: Canada TCK/B CN / TCK'B.TO(Yr-End Dec. 31) 2012a 2013e 2014e

    EPS, C$ $2.60 $1.90 $2.00

    P/E 9.4x 12.8x 12.2x

    CFPS, C$ $5.44 $4.60 $4.95

    P/CF 4.5x 5.3x 4.9x

    EBITDA (C$ Mln) $2 819 $3 070 $3 307

    EV/EBITDA 6.2x 5.7x 5.3x

    Production (as reported)

    Coal, mln tonnes 24.7 25.0 26.0

    Cu, tonnes 000's 373 353 419

    Zn, tonnes 000's 598 582 574

    Financial Data:

    Shares Outstanding (mln) 580.1

    Market Capitalization (Cdn$ mln) $14 160

    Fully Diluted (mln) 588.9

    Book Value per Share (Cdn$) $32.19

    Price/Book Ratio 0.8x

    Net Asset Value per Share (Cdn$) $28.00

    Price/NAV 0.9x

    LT Debt (C$ mln) $7 579

    Total Cash (C$ mln) $2 580 Source: NBF Estimates / Company Reports

    Industry Rating: Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

    Regular dividend increases and share buybacks distinguish Teck as an attractive income investment in the Metals & Mining sector. Teck has increased its dividend for four consecutive years, with the current semi-annual dividend of $0.45 per share ($0.90 annually) implying a 3.7% dividend yield. Teck is also engaged in an NCIB to purchase up to 20 million Class B shares up to June 27, 2014 (following the completion of a similar buyback program, whereby the company repurchased 10 million shares between June 2012 and June 2013).

    Dividend backed by well-diversified operating base. Teck is the largest diversified mining company in Canada, with interests in a suite of six operating coal mines in B.C. and Alberta, accounting for 49% of our NAV. Teck is also amongst the world’s largest zinc producers - primarily from its Red Dog mine in Alaska. Teck's copper division includes interests in Highland Valley Copper in B.C., Antamina in Peru, Quebrada Blanca in Chile, Carmen de Andacollo in Chile and Duck Pond in Newfoundland. The next phase of growth will come from the copper division, where production is set to increase to +800,000 tpa by 2020 (vs. 373,000 tonnes in 2012) through the development of QB2 and Relincho.

    Disciplined capital allocation facilitates NCIB and stable dividend. In the context of current commodity markets, Teck has deferred the Quintette coal expansion until met coal markets improve and has also delayed initial production from QB2 until 2019. An ongoing cost reduction program has identified over $250 mln of annual cost savings and is targeting an additional $50 mln in annual reductions before year end. The combination of these initiatives further solidifies Teck’s financial strength in the near term, which includes $4.8 bln in available liquidity and only ~$300 mln of debt repayments scheduled from 2013-2016.

    Sector Perform with a $27.75 target. Our Sector Perform rating balances our cautious outlook for met coal markets with Teck’s solid operating base and focus on returning capital to shareholders. Our $27.75 target price is derived using a multiple of 6.0x EV/2014E EBITDA (50%) + 1.0x NAV (50%).

    Stock Performance Company Profile: Teck Resources (Teck) is the largest diversified mining company in Canada, with assets located Canada, United States, Chile and Peru. Teck is the world’s second largest exporter of seaborne hard coking coal (HCC), the world’s second larger producer of zinc and the company's copper division is set to increase production beyond 800,000 tpa of copper through the addition of QB2 and Relincho. Shane Nagle, CFA - (416) 869-7936 [email protected] Associate: Craig Thompson - (416) 869-6538 [email protected]

    Source: Thomson

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  • APPENDIX 1 – Target Price, Recommendations and Industry Risk RatingsEquity Ticker Target Price Rating Analyst Industry

    Industry Rating

    Aimia AIM $17.00 Outperform Shine Media Underw eight

    AltaGas ALA $40.00 Outperform Kenny Pipelines, Utilities & Energy Infrastructure

    Overw eight

    American Hotel Income Properties HOT.UN $13.00 Outperform Johnson Real Estate Market Weight

    ARC Resources ARX $30.00 Outperform Preston Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

    Overw eight

    Artis REIT AX.UN $17.75 Outperform Kornack Real Estate Market WeightBank of Montreal BMO $68.00 Sector Perform Routledge Banking Market Weight

    Baytex Energy BTE $49.00 Outperform Preston Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

    Overw eight

    Bonterra Energy BNE $55.00 Outperform Payne Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

    Overw eight

    Cathedral Energy Services CET $6.25 Outperform Colman Oil and Gas Services Overw eightCdn. Energy Services & Tech. CEU $15.50 Sector Perform Colman Oil and Gas Services Overw eightChemtrade Logistics CHE.UN $19.00 Outperform Mersereau Chemicals Underw eightCominar REIT CUF.UN $25.50 Outperform Kornack Real Estate Market Weight

    Crescent Point CPG $48.00 Outperform Preston Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

    Overw eight

    Crombie REIT CRR.UN Restricted Restricted Kornack Real Estate RestrictedDavis+Henderson DH Restricted Restricted Johnson Diversif ied Financials RestrictedEnercare ECI $12.00 Outperform Mersereau Consumer Services Underw eightExchange Income EIF $32.00 Outperform Johnson Diversif ied Market WeightFirst National FN $19.00 Sector Perform Khan Diversif ied Financials Market Weight

    Gibson Energy GEI $31.00 Outperform Kenny Pipelines, Utilities & Energy Infrastructure

    Overw eight

    Innergex Renew able Energy INE $11.25 Outperform Merer Independent Energy Producers & Traders

    Underw eight

    Keyera KEY $65.00 Outperform Kenny Pipelines, Utilities & Energy Infrastructure

    Overw eight

    Morneau Shepell MSI $15.00 Outperform Johnson Commercial Services & Supplies

    Market Weight

    Premium Brands PBH $20.50 Outperform Aghazarian Food Products Market WeightSirius XM Canada XSR $8.50 Outperform Shine Media Underw eight

    Surge Energy SGY $7.50 Outperform Taylor Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

    Overw eight

    Teck Resources TCK.B $27.75 Sector Perform Nagle Metals & Mining Market Weight

    Vermilion Energy VET $54.00 Outperform Preston Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

    Overw eight

    WesternOne Equity WEQ $10.00 Outperform Johnson Infrastructure Market Weight

    Whitecap Resources WCP $14.00 Outperform Taylor Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

    Overw eight

    Source: Company Reports, NBF

    Page 13

  • DISCLOSURES: Ratings And What They Mean: PRIMARY STOCK RATING: NBF has a three-tiered rating system that is relative to the coverage universe of the particular analyst. Here is a brief description of each: Outperform – The stock is expected to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe over the next 12 months; Sector Perform – The stock is projected to perform in line with the sector over the next 12 months; Underperform – The stock is expected to underperform the sector over the next 12 months. SECONDARY STOCK RATING: Under Review − Our analyst has withdrawn the rating because of insufficient information and is awaiting more information and/or clarification; Tender − Our analyst is recommending that investors tender to a specific offering for the company’s stock; Restricted − Because of ongoing investment banking transactions or because of other circumstances, NBF policy and/or laws or regulations preclude our analyst from rating a company’s stock. INDUSTRY RATING: NBF has an Industry Weighting system that reflects the view of our Economics & Strategy Group, using its sector rotation strategy. The three tiered system rates industries as Overweight, Market Weight and Underweight, depending on the sector’s projected performance against broader market averages over the next 12 months. RISK RATING: NBF utilizes a four-tiered risk rating system, Low, Average, Above Average and Speculative. The system attempts to evaluate risk against the overall market. In addition to sector-specific criteria, analysts also utilize quantitative and qualitative criteria in choosing a rating. The criteria include predictability of financial results, share price volatility, credit ratings, share liquidity and balance sheet quality. General – National Bank Financial (NBF) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Research Analysts – The Research Analyst(s) who prepare these reports certify that their respective report accurately reflects his or her personal opinion and that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views as to the securities or companies. NBF compensates its Research Analysts from a variety of sources. The Research Department is a cost centre and is funded by the business activities of NBF including, Institutional Equity Sales and Trading, Retail Sales, the correspondent clearing business, and Corporate and Investment Banking. Since the revenues from these businesses vary, the funds for research compensation vary. No one-business line has a greater influence than any other for Research Analyst compensation. Canadian Residents – In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report, Canadian residents should contact their NBF professional representative. To effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor. U.S. Residents – With respect to the distribution of this report in the United States of America, NBF Securities (USA) Corp., an affiliate of NBF, accepts responsibility for its contents, subject to any terms set out above. To make further inquiry related to this report, United States residents should contact their NBF Securities (USA) Corp. professional representative. To effect any transaction, United States residents should contact their NBF Securities (USA) Corp. investment advisor. UK Residents – In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, NBF Securities UK has approved the contents (including, where necessary, for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000). NBF Securities UK and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to retail customers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority. NBF Securities UK is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom and has its registered office at 71 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 4HD Copyright – This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of National Bank Financial.

    NBF is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. NBF quarterly ratings summary and the total ratings by month can be found on our website under Research and Analysis/Equities/About NBF Research/Quarterly Ratings Summary (link attached) http://www.nbcn.ca/cmst/site/index.jhtml?navid=803&templateID=249 The NBF Research Dissemination Policy is available on our website under Legal/Research Policy (link attached) http://www.nbcn.ca/cmst/site/index.jhtml?navid=712&templateid=243 Click on the following link to see the company specific disclosures http://www.nbcn.ca/contactus/disclosures.html If a company specific disclosure is not found herein for a listed company, NBF at this time does not provide research coverage or stock rating for the company in question.

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  • ADDITIONAL COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES CUF.un In the past 12 months NBF acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent, or underwriter to the company that is the subject of this report and received remuneration for its services. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is not a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. NBF is a Registered Trader on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the company that is the subject of this report. (1) AAR.un, AX.un, BMO, BNS, CRR.un, ECI, FN, WEQ In the past 12 months NBF acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent, or underwriter to the company that is the subject of this report and received remuneration for its services. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is not a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. (2) DH In the past 12 months NBF acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent, or underwriter to the company that is the subject of this report and received remuneration for its services. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. NBF is a Registered Trader on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the company that is the subject of this report. (5) ARX, BCE, CHE.un, CPG, EIF, GCL, GEI, GWO, INE, KEY, MSI, PBH, TBE, WCP In the past 12 months NBF acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent, or underwriter to the company that is the subject of this report and received remuneration for its services. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. (6) CEU In the past 12 months NBF has not acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for the company that is the subject of this report. NBF may act in such a capacity in the future and receive, or expect to receive, compensation for such activities. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is not a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. NBF is a Registered Trader on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the company that is the subject of this report. (9)

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  • CET, DIR.un In the past 12 months NBF has not acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for the company that is the subject of this report. NBF may act in such a capacity in the future and receive, or expect to receive, compensation for such activities. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is not a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. (10) VET In the past 12 months NBF has not acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for the company that is the subject of this report. NBF may act in such a capacity in the future and receive, or expect to receive, compensation for such activities. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. NBF is a Registered Trader on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the company that is the subject of this report. (13) AIM, ALA, BNE, BTE, CAS, HOT.un, SGY, XSR In the past 12 months NBF has not acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for the company that is the subject of this report. NBF may act in such a capacity in the future and receive, or expect to receive, compensation for such activities. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. (14) TCK.b In the past 12 months NBF has not acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for the company that is the subject of this report. NBF may act in such a capacity in the future and receive, or expect to receive, compensation for such activities. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is not a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. The company discussed in this report has two or more classes of common shares existing with differential voting rights. (28) TCL.a In the past 12 months NBF has not acted as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for the company that is the subject of this report. NBF may act in such a capacity in the future and receive, or expect to receive, compensation for such activities. NBF is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the National Bank of Canada. From time to time the National Bank of Canada may enter into lending or financial arrangements with companies that are the subject of NBF Research Reports. At the date of this report, National Bank of Canada is a lender to the company which is the subject of this report. NBF and/or its Affiliates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. On the last day of the month preceding the date of this report, NBF and its Affiliates held in the aggregate less than 1% of the outstanding shares (of any class of equity securities) of this issuer. NBF is a Registered Trader on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the company that is the subject of this report. The company discussed in this report has two or more classes of common shares existing with differential voting rights. (31)

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    _DT13G29_THEM_ECompanies IncludedAIMIA IncAmerican Hotel Income PropertiesBank of MontrealCathedral Energy Services LtdCominar REITCrombie REITSirius XM Canada Holdings IncSurge Energy IncTeck Resources LtdAppendix 1Disclosures