National Air Pollution Control Programme of the Federal Republic … · 2019-08-08 · 2 of 124...

Courtesy Translation in English Provided by the Translation Services of the European Commission

National Air Pollution Control Programme

of the Federal Republic of Germany

in accordance with Article 6 and Article 10 of Directive (EU) 2016/2284 on the reduction of

national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants

and

in accordance with Sections 4 and 16 of the Ordinance on national commitments for

reduction of certain atmospheric pollutions (43rd Federal Emissions Control Ordinance

(BImSchV))

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Title of the programme National Air Pollution Control Programme

Date 22 May 2019 (Cabinet resolution)

Member State Germany

Name of competent authority responsible for drawing up

the programme

Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and

Nuclear Safety (BMU), Working Group IG I 2

Telephone number of responsible service +49 30 18 305-2430/2434

Email address of responsible service [email protected]

Link to website where the programme is published https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/nlrp2019

Link to website on the consultation relating to the

programme

https://www.bmu.de/meldung/beteiligung-der-oeffentlichkeit-im-

rahmen-der-erstellung-des-nationalen-luftreinhalteprogramms/

mailto:[email protected]

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Table of contents List of figures 5 List of tables 7 List of abbreviations 9

Foreword 10

1 Introduction 11 1.1 National emission reduction commitments - a tool to improve air quality and to reduce

pressure on ecosystems 11 1.1.1 Atmospheric pollutants 11 1.1.2 Emission reduction commitments 12 1.1.3 Scenarios, strategies and measures 13 1.1.3.1 Definitions 13 1.1.3.2 Methodology 15 1.1.4 Significance to air quality 17

2 Political framework for air quality and air pollution control 19 2.1 Policy priorities and their relationship to priorities set in other relevant policy areas 19 2.2 Responsibilities attributed to national, regional and local authorities 20

3 Progress made by current policies and measures in reducing emissions and improving air quality; extent of compliance with national and EU commitments, in relation to the year 2005 21

3.1 Emissions development from 2005 to 2016 in accordance with emissions reporting for 2018, compliance with national and EU regulations 21

3.1.1 Emissions development from 2005 to 2016 in accordance with emissions reporting for 2018 21

3.1.1.1 Development of emissions - overview 21 3.1.1.2 Development of SO2 emissions 2005 – 2016 25 3.1.1.3 Development of NOX emissions 2005 – 2016 26 3.1.1.4 Development of NMVOC emissions 2005 – 2016 29 3.1.1.5 Development of NH3 emissions 2005 – 2016 33 3.1.1.6 Development of PM2.5 emissions 2005 – 2016 35 3.1.2 Compliance with the emission reduction commitments in force 37 3.2 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2016 39 3.2.1 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2016 - compliance with national and EU

regulations 39 3.2.1.1 Methodology for assessment for development of air quality 39 3.2.1.2 Development of NO2 concentrations 40 3.2.1.3 NO2 exceedance situations 42 3.2.1.4 Development of PM10 concentrations 45 3.2.1.5 PM10 exceedance situations 47 3.2.1.6 Development of PM2.5 concentrations 50 3.2.1.7 Development of O3 concentrations 52 3.2.1.8 O3 exceedance situations 55 3.2.1.9 CO exceedance situations 57 3.2.1.10 SO2 exceedance situations 58 3.2.2 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2015 – results of dispersion modelling 58 3.2.2.1 Methodology 58 3.2.2.2 Modelled background NO2 concentrations 59 3.2.2.3 Modelled background SO2 concentrations 60 3.2.2.4 Modelled background NH3 concentrations 61 3.2.2.5 Modelled background PM2.5 concentrations 62 3.2.2.6 Modelled background O3 concentrations 63 3.2.2.7 Summary of results of dispersion modelling 65 3.3 Assessment of the development of cross-border transport of atmospheric pollutants

from and to Germany 66

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4 Projected further evolution assuming no change to strategies and measures already adopted 67

4.1 Emission projection to 2030 and assessment of emission reduction in comparison to 2005 in the With Measures Scenario (WM) 67

4.1.1 With Measures Scenario (WM) 67 4.1.1.1 Development in rates of activity - general 67 4.1.1.2 Further trend projections - air pollution control 69 4.1.2 Emission projection to 2030 in the With Measures Scenario (WM) 72 4.1.3 Description of the uncertainties linked to the emission projection in the With

Measures Scenario (WM) 79 4.2 Description of the projected improvement in air quality in the With Measures Scenario

(WM) 81 4.2.1 Modelled background NO2 concentrations 81 4.2.2 Modelled background SO2 concentrations 82 4.2.3 Modelled background NH3 concentrations 83 4.2.4 Modelled background PM2.5 concentrations 84 4.2.5 Modelled background O3 concentrations 85 4.2.6 Summary of results of dispersion modelling 87

5 Options for strategies and measures for complying with emission reduction commitments from 2020 and from 2030 and indicative interim targets from 2025 88

5.1 Further options for action for climate protection 88 5.2 Further options for action - NOX 90 5.3 Further options for action - NMVOC 91 5.4 further options for action - SO2 92 5.5 Further options for action - PM2.5 93 5.6 Further options for action - NH3 93 5.7 Reduction potential of further options of action 97 5.8 Further information for measures in the field of agriculture 98

6 Strategies and measures (including timetable for adopting measures, implementation and success monitoring and competent agency) 99

6.1 Report on the strategies and measures selected for implementation (including competent agency) 99

6.2 Assessment of consistency with plans and programmes in other policy fields 99

7 Report on emission projection, development of air quality and on the impact on the environment in the NEC compliance scenario for meeting reduction commitments (WAM - With Additional Measures) 101

7.1 Emission projection to 2030 and assessment of emission reduction in comparison to 2005 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) 101

7.2 Description of the uncertainties linked to the WAM projection 107 7.3 Description of the projected improvement in air quality in the NEC Compliance Scenario

(WAM) 109 7.4 Projected impact on the environment in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) 115

8 References 116

Annexes 117 A Annex - Emission sources according to Nomenclature for Reporting (NFR) 117 B Annexes– Emissions data relating to Chapter 3.1.1 121

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List of figures

Image 1: Emissions development of SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3 and PM2.5 from 1990 to 2016 ..... 22

Image 2: Emissions of SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3 and PM2.5 from 2005 to 2016 (Source:

Emissions reporting for 2018) ...................................................................................... 23

Image 3: Development of SO2 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany...................................... 25

Image 4: Development of NOX emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany ..................................... 26

Image 5: NOX emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany ................................................ 28

Image 6: Development of NMVOC emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany .............................. 30

Image 7: NMVOC emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany ......................................... 31

Image 8: Development of NH3 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany ..................................... 34

Image 9: Development of PM2.5 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany ................................... 35

Image 10: PM2.5 emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany .............................................. 36

Image 11: Development of the annual average of measured NO2 concentrations ...................... 41

Image 12: Modelled concentration maps for development of the annual average of

measured NO2 concentrations with point information of measured values from

stations close to traffic ................................................................................................. 42

Image 13: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for NO2 according

to assessment areas (average annual value) ................................................................ 43

Image 14: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for NO2 according

to assessment areas (average hourly value) ................................................................ 45

Image 15: Development of the annual average of measured PM10 concentrations ..................... 46

Image 16: Modelled concentration maps for development of the annual average of

measured PM10 concentrations with point information of measured values from

stations close to traffic and to industry ........................................................................ 47

Image 17: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for PM10 according

to assessment areas (average annual value) ................................................................ 48

Image 18: Representation of the Average Exposure Indicator (AEI) for PM2.5 since 2010 ............ 51

Image 19: Development of the highest daily and hourly eight-hour averages for O3 .................. 53

Image 20: Development of the three-year average of the highest daily eight-hour average

for O3 ............................................................................................................................ 54

Image 21: Modelled concentration maps for development of the three-year average of

measured O3 concentrations ........................................................................................ 55

Image 22: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for O3 according to

assessment areas (target value) ................................................................................... 57

Image 23: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for NO2 in µg/m³ under the

same meteorological conditions .................................................................................. 59

Image 24: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for SO2 in µg/m³ under the


Image 25: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for NH3 in µg/m³ under the


Image 26: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for PM2.5 in µg/m³ under the


Image 27: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for O3 in µg/m³ under the


Image 28: Result of the EURAD-model runs 2005 and 2015 for the number of days of

exceedance of the O3 target under the same meteorological conditions ................... 65

Image 29: Component analysis for development of greenhouse gas emissions from energy

use in the Projection Report of the Federal Government 2017 (PR 2017, p.272) ....... 80

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Image 30: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for NO2 in µg/m³ under

the same meteorological conditions ............................................................................ 82

Image 31: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for SO2 in µg/m³ under


Image 32: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for NH3 in µg/m³ under


Image 33: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for PM2.5 in µg/m³ under


Image 34: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for O3 in µg/m³ under the


Image 35: Result of the EURAD-model runs 2005 and WM-2030 for the number of days of

exceedance of the O3 target under the same meteorological conditions ................... 87

Image 36: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for NO2 in µg/m³ under

the same meteorological conditions .......................................................................... 110

Image 37: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for SO2 in µg/m³ under


Image 38: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for NH3 in µg/m³ under


Image 39: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for PM2.5 in µg/m³ under


Image 40: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for O3 in µg/m³ under


Image 41: Result of the EURAD-model runs 2005 – WAM-2030 for the number of days of

exceedance of the O3 target under the same meteorological conditions ................. 115

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List of tables

Table 1: Percentage emissions reduction commitments in accordance with Directive (EU)

2016/2284 in comparison with emissions in reference year 2005. ............................. 13

Table 2: Policy targets in the field of air pollution control and air quality and

categorisation in relation to targets in other policy areas ........................................... 19

Table 3: Responsibilities attributed to national, regional and local authorities ........................ 20

Table 4: Absolute emissions in kt/a according to Image 1 and Image 2 .................................... 24

Table 5: Compliance with emission ceilings in force since 2010 pursuant to Directive

2001/81/EC according to emissions reporting for 2018 (cf. IIR, 2018) ........................ 38

Table 6: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the NO2 annual limit to the total

number of stations per station type used for assessment. .......................................... 43

Table 7: Development of the proportion of the assessment areas (number) with

exceedance of the permissible NO2 average annual value .......................................... 44

Table 8: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the NO2 hourly limit to the total


Table 9: Development of the proportion of assessment areas with exceedance of the

permissible NO2 hourly average ................................................................................... 45

Table 10: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the PM10 daily limit to the total



permissible PM10 daily average .................................................................................... 49

Table 12: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the PM10 annual limit to the total



permissible PM10 annual average ................................................................................. 50

Table 14: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the PM2.5 annual limit to the total



permissible PM2.5 annual average ................................................................................ 52

Table 16: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the O3 long-term objective to the total


Table 17: Development of the proportion of the assessment areas with exceedance of the

long-term target for O3 ................................................................................................. 56

Table 18: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the O3 objective to the total number

of stations per station type used for assessment. ....................................................... 56


target value for O3 ........................................................................................................ 57

Table 20: Difference in modelled annual average of background concentrations under the

same meteorological conditions for 2005 and 2015 .................................................... 65

Table 21: Selected trend projections for primary energy consumption, final energy

consumption and gross electricity consumption for the year 2030 in the With

Measures Scenario of the PR 2017 in comparison to the year 2014. .......................... 68

Table 22: Source groups with significant emission reductions in the With Measures

Scenario ........................................................................................................................ 73

Table 23: Emission projection for NOX (as NO2) in the With Measures Scenario (WM) .............. 74

Table 24: Emission projection for NMVOC in the With Measures Scenario (WM) ...................... 75

Table 25: Emissions projection for SO2 in the With Measures Scenario (WM) ........................... 76

Table 26: Emissions projection for NH3 in the With Measures Scenario (WM) ........................... 77

Table 27: Emissions projection for PM2.5 in the With Measures Scenario (WM) ........................ 78

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Table 28: Emissions projections in the With Measures Scenario (WM) ...................................... 79

Table 29: Emissions projections in the With Measures Scenario (WM) with different

activity rate scenarios of the Projection Report 2017 .................................................. 81

Table 30: Difference of modelled annual average of background concentrations under the

same meteorological conditions for 2005 and 2030 in the With Measures

Scenario (WM) ............................................................................................................. 87

Table 31: Lignite power stations transferred into standby mode up to 2020 (amended

following BnetzA, 2017). .............................................................................................. 88

Table 32: Differences in projected developments of primary energy consumption between

WMS and WFMS in the Projection Report 2017 (PR 2017) ......................................... 89

Table 33: Further options for action in the agriculture source group and their additional

reduction potential in comparison with the With Measures Scenario (WM) .............. 94

Table 34: Further options for action for reaching reduction commitments and their

additional reduction potentials in comparison with the With Measures Scenario

(WM) ............................................................................................................................ 97

Table 35: Additional information relating to measures from Annex III Part 2 of Directive

(EU) 2016/2284 in the agricultural sector Table 2.6.4. of Implementing Decision

(EU) 2018/1522 ............................................................................................................ 98

Table 36: Projected emissions development in NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)................... 102

Table 37: Emissions projection for NOX (as NO2) in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) ...... 103

Table 38: Emissions projection for NMVOC in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) .............. 104

Table 39: Emissions projection for SO2 (as SO2) in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) ........ 105

Table 40: Emissions projection for NH3 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) ..................... 106

Table 41: Emissions projection for PM2.5 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) .................. 107

Table 42: Difference of modelled annual average of background concentrations under the

same meteorological conditions for 2005 and 2030 in the NEC Compliance

Scenario (WAM) ......................................................................................................... 109

Table 43: Model results for dry and wet deposition in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)

and difference in relation to 2005 .............................................................................. 115

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List of abbreviations

BAT Best Available Technique

BREF BAT (Best Available Technique) Reference Documents

CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbines

CLRTAP Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

Du V Du ngeverordnung [Fertiliser Ordinance] - Ordinance on the use of fertilisers,

soil improvers, growing media and plant adjuvants based on the principles of

good professional practice in fertilisation of 26 May 2017

ERM Emission Reduction Measures (Mesap database at the Federal Environment

Agency (UBA))

GT Gas Turbines

IIR Informative Inventory Report

LCP Large Combustion Plant

LCP Large Combustion Plants

Mesap Modular Energy Systems Analysis and Planning

NEC Directive old: Directive 2001/81/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23

October 2001 on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants

new: Directive (EU) 2016/2284 of the European Parliament and of the Council

of 14 December 2016 on the reduction of national emissions of certain

atmospheric pollutants, amending Directive 2003/35/EC and repealing

Directive 2001/81/EC

NFR Nomenclature for Reporting to the UNECE (see Annex A)

PaMs Policies and Measures

PCN Project Code Number

PM Particulate Matter According to size fraction, PM10, PM2.5 or PM1

PR 2017 Projection Report of the German Government 2017

SO2 Sulphur dioxide; insofar as emissions are described, includes SO2 within the

meaning of the 43rd BImSchV, as well as sulphur dioxide, all sulphur

compounds, including sulphur trioxide (SO3), sulphuric acid (H2SO4) and

reduced sulphur compounds like hydrogen sulphide (H2S), mercaptans and

dimethyl sulphides, expressed as sulphur dioxide.

TA Luft Technische Anleitung zur Reinhaltung der Luft [Technical Instructions on Air

Quality Control] First General Administrative Regulation of the Federal

Emissions Control Act (BImSchG)

TI Johann Heinrich von Thu nen Institute

TREMOD Transport Emission Model

UN ECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

WAM With Additional Measures (NEC compliance scenario)

WFMS With Further Measures Scenario (used for climate protection scenario)

WM With Measures (With Measures Scenario)

WMS With Measures Scenario (used for climate protection scenario)

ZSE Zentral System Emissionen [Central System Emissions] (Mesap database at the

UBA)

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Foreword Directive (EU) 2016/2284 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 December 2016

on the reduction of national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants, amending Directive

2003/35/EC and repealing Directive 2001/81/EC (OJ L 344, 17.12.2016, p. 1)1 prescribes

percentage reduction commitments for national emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur

compounds (represented as SO2), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs,),

ammonia (NH3) and particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5) from 2020 and

from 2030 in relation to emissions in the base year 2005.

Pursuant to Articles 6 and 10 of the Directive, the Member States are obliged to provide national

air pollution control programmes to the European Commission at least every four years, the first

of which must be submitted by 1 April 2019. This programme must include, inter alia, the

current emission projections and the strategies and measures considered in order to meet the

emission reduction commitments for the period between 2020 and 2029 and for 2030 onwards

and the intermediate emission targets established for 2025, and to contribute to further

improving the air quality.

The NEC Directive was implemented in Germany via the 43rd BImSchV (Ordinance on national

commitments for reduction of certain atmospheric pollutions). The Ordinance entered into force

on 31 July 2018.

The structure and content of the current national air pollution control programme are set out in

accordance with the Annex of Implementing Decision (EU) 2018/15222, which provides a

general report format derived from the format specifications for reporting of greenhouse gas

emissions3 (e.g. Section 2.4 of the template corresponds to Chapter 4 of this report).

1 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32016L2284&from=EN; retrieved 07/08/2018 2 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=OJ:L:2018:256:TOC 3 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32014R0749 retrieved 07/08/2018

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1 Introduction

1.1 National emission reduction commitments - a tool to improve air quality and to reduce pressure on ecosystems

1.1.1 Atmospheric pollutants

Atmospheric pollutants can endanger both human health and the biosphere. Atmospheric

pollutants also have an impact on the surface of materials and can affect the climate. The

emission of atmospheric pollutants can be caused both naturally (e.g. as a result of volcanic

eruptions, forest fires, sand storms, pollination etc.) and also anthropogenically. Once released

into the atmosphere, atmospheric pollutants can be transported over huge distances to the site

of impact, depending in each case on meteorological conditions and reactivity. There, they act as

a primary pollutant or, due to chemical and physical transformation during dissemination, as a

secondary pollutant. Atmospheric pollutants can also both be discharged from the lowest layer

of the atmosphere into higher layers and can enter into the lowest layer from higher layers. As

well as emissions of

Dust (total dust, fraction of particulate matter smaller than 10µm - PM10, fraction of

particulate matter smaller than 2.5µm – PM2.5, ultra-fine particulates smaller than

1µm – PM1, Black Carbon – BC),

nitrogen oxides (NOX),

sulphur dioxide and other sulphur compounds (collectively referred to as SO2),

non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC),

ammonia (NH3) and

carbon monoxide (CO),

there are many more well-known and less well-known and recorded emissions of atmospheric

pollutants, such as for example

heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Se, Zn) or

POP - persistent organic pollutants (chlorinated organic compounds such as PCDD or

PCDF, PAH - polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons like benzo(a)pyrene, HCB -

hexachlorobenzene, PCB - polychlorinated biphenyls, benzene etc.).

Significant sources of emissions of atmospheric pollutants are industrial plants, combustion

plants burning fossil energy sources to produce electricity and heat, air, land or sea transport,

and different agricultural systems and processes.

At the stations of the Federal Environment Agency monitoring networks and the monitoring

networks of the German states, along with numerous substance concentrations each of the

following are also measured: nitrogen oxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5 inter alia) and

ozone (O3). Limit and target values are fixed for these concentrations in the EU Air Quality

Directive 2008/50/EC4, which are based on the adoption of threshold values for endangering

human health.

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When atmospheric pollutants enter the atmosphere, this sooner or later leads to wetter (in

rainwater), drier (due to force of gravity) and damper (in water drops which are deposited on

surfaces) deposition and thus to pressure on ecosystems. Critical values are likewise set for this

material pollution by atmospheric pollutants caused for the most part by human activity, and if

these are exceeded, this can lead to long-term degradation of ecosystems.

Last but not least, emissions of atmospheric pollutants also indirectly pollute bodies of water

through their dissemination in the atmosphere, their deposition on terrestrial ecosystems and

lastly through being discharged from these ecosystems.

1.1.2 Emission reduction commitments

The committees of the Geneva Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution of 1979

(CLRTAP) provide the forum for international cooperation in relation to transboundary air

pollution. Within the framework of the Convention, the contracting nations agreed on the

following:

recognition of the fact that long-range transboundary air pollution has an adverse impact

on the environment, and that human beings and the environment have to be protected

against this impact,

an obligation to ensure that the Contracting Parties take steps to combat emissions of

these air pollutants,

the creation of a pan-European observation network,

the creation of committees for the further development and enforcement of the

Convention.

Within the framework of this cooperation, there has already been considerable emission

reductions and improvements in air quality in many contracting nations. However, new emission

sources and substances of high concern are also constantly emerging, and even strongly reduced

emission sources can once again become the focus of reduction efforts due to new findings about

air polluting materials and processes.

The European Union has implemented many provisions and recommendations of the bodies of

the Geneva Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution in European regulations.

In addition to the original objectives of the Geneva Convention on Long-Range Transboundary

Air Pollution, there is an increasing interest in reducing the health burden caused by particulate

matter. The ‘Clean Air for Europe’5 programme plans to reduce the health impact of air pollution

in the European Union, measured in early deaths relating to particulate matter and ozone, by

over half, and the area of ecosystems with excess eutrophication by over a third, by 2030 in

comparison with 2005.

Efforts to reduce impact on health and the environment should tackle emission sources in order

to further decrease the issue of atmospheric pollutants. For this purpose, percentage reduction

commitments for national emissions have been set for all EU Member States in the new NEC

Directive.

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As part of the cost calculations carried out in the proposal for a directive by the European

Commission, annual costs of EUR 316 million were estimated for additional measures to achieve

Germany’s proposed reduction commitments. This assessment may be an overestimation of the

actual costs of the additional measures required exclusively for air pollution control, because

1. some of the established reduction commitments are significantly lower than the values

proposed by the Commission,

2. synergies with climate and energy policy measures are not taken into account, and

3. some measures adopted since then at EU level (e.g. new emission limit values for mobile

machines and equipment and the limiting of emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants

by medium-sized combustion plants) and national measures (e.g. the amendment of the

Fertiliser Ordinance) are not taken into account.

The European Commission’s impact assessment assumes that the economic benefit of the

proposed emission reductions exceeds the follow-up costs by a factor of 10-35.

Insofar as individual measures and tools are implemented by way of legislative and regulatory

provisions, the exact follow-up costs are estimated in the context of these provisions.

Germany is committed to the percentage reductions presented in Table 1.

Table 1: Percentage emissions reduction commitments in accordance with Directive (EU) 2016/2284 in comparison with emissions in reference year 2005.

Sulphur dioxide Nitrogen oxides Ammonia NMVOCs PM2.5

New NEC Directive, to be reached by 2020

-21 % -39 % -5 % -13 % -26 %

New NEC Directive, to be reached by 2030

-58 % -65 % -29 % -28 % -43 %

1.1.3 Scenarios, strategies and measures

1.1.3.1 Definitions

Annex IV of the NEC Directive stipulates that the Member States shall provide a ‘With Measures’

(i.e. measures already adopted) scenario and, where relevant, a ‘With Additional Measures’ (i.e.

other planned measures) scenario for certain pollutants. In English, these scenarios are

designated by the abbreviations WM, for With Measures, and WAM, for With Additional

Measures. The translation of the English scenario designations into German, i.e. Mit-

Maßnahmen-Szenario and Mit-Weiteren-Maßnahmen-Szenario, creates a likelihood of confusion

with the typical scenario designations for the regular greenhouse gas emission projections.

Depending upon the time of creation of the different scenarios and the assumptions made,

scenarios with the same name can however be very different and are in no way comparable. For

the German National Air Pollution Control Programme, these scenario designations and

abbreviations therefore apply:

With Measures Scenario (WM)

NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)

which are defined as follows:

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The With Measures Scenario (WM) includes measures already adopted, which were

adopted by 31 July 2016 for measures relating to climate protection and by 1 September

2017 for measures relating to air pollution control6. Only in the exceptional cases

described can there be deviations from these fixed dates. The With Measures Scenario

(WM) is described in Chapter 4.1.1.

Additionally, the Member States must also submit for the individual atmospheric

pollutants an NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) for the case of non-compliance with the

reduction commitments in the With Measures Scenario (WM). In this case, the NEC

Compliance Scenario includes further measures which had not yet been legally adopted

by the key date, and strategies whose implementation has been agreed by the German

government for compliance with the NEC Directive reduction commitments. The NEC

Compliance Scenario (WAM) is described in Chapter 7.1.

In this connection, the terms Measures, Strategy and Scenario are defined as follows:

A Measure aims to reduce emissions from individual source groups. This often takes

place by way of technical improvements, which are implemented through statutory

provisions or encouragement, for example through tightening a source-specific emission

limit value.

A Strategy generally defines and describes objectives spanning various source groups for

a policy (e.g. energy policy) or environmental sector (e.g. biodiversity). It might stipulate

that these objectives should be reached by a certain future point in time or within a

certain period. Therefore routes to achieving these objectives or interim targets can be

set. Additionally, a strategy can comprise precise measures.

A Scenario comprises a compilation of selected strategies and measures and describes

their combined effects on an environmental sector (e.g. emissions of atmospheric

pollutants). The respective selection may be based for example on different goals,

projections for development of framework conditions, scenarios from other sectors or

specific questions, proposals or demands.

The complex assumptions and calculations which have to be made and coordinated to create

scenarios for greenhouse gas or atmospheric pollutant emission projections make it difficult to

reach a result simultaneous with the key date set. Due to the prioritising of political objectives in

the field of climate protection, in the recent past greenhouse gas emission projections have been

set first and atmospheric pollutant emission projections have essentially transferred the

assumptions made therein for the development of political and legal framework conditions and

simply extended them in relation to targets in the field of air pollution control. The assumptions

contained in the National Air Pollution Control Programme have also been reached according to

this principle.

The scope of the measures required for some atmospheric pollutants depends to what extent

synergies with climate and energy policies are sufficient to achieve the reduction commitments

in the NEC Directive. In this connection, the planned phasing out of power generation from

lignite is of particular significance. In the National Air Pollution Control Programme, along with

other measures for reduction of atmospheric pollutants, the reduction potential of the possible

contribution of the phasing out of power generation from lignite is estimated on the basis of

existing energy projections of the WFMS in the Projection Report 2017, which includes a

moderate phasing out of power generation from lignite.

6 This also includes measures that only came into effect after the respective key date.

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Account is taken of the possible impact of different developments in activity rates on emission

projections for certain atmospheric pollutants in an uncertainty report (c.f. Chapter 4.1.3. and

7.2).

1.1.3.2 Methodology

To determine total emissions, the emissions from individual emission sources are considered,

and their emissions of a specific atmospheric pollutant are calculated per unit of time by

multiplication of the so-called activity rate in this unit of time and an emission factor per activity.

Simply, this can be expressed by the formula:

𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 [𝐸𝑀] = 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 [𝐴𝑅] ∙ 𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 [𝐸𝐹]

An activity rate might for example be fuel consumption indicated in terajoules [TJ], or a number

of animals given in units [U] or else a quantity of product used in kilograms [kg]. The

corresponding emission factors result either directly from the measurement results or they have

to be calculated from the measurement results, for example per waste gas volume and time for

precise or average conversion factors. If no continuous measurements take place, emission

factors can also be obtained from individual measurements, modelling, calculation or estimation

by experts on the basis of qualified assumptions.

In the emission inventory database ‘Zentral System Emissionen’ [Central System

Emissions] (ZSE), national emission totals per year for selected atmospheric pollutants are

recorded and presented along with greenhouse gases at the Federal Environment Agency, in time

series from 1990. At yearly intervals, these time series are regularly updated to the year two

years prior to the current reporting year and are also updated for all past years in accordance

with additional findings. It can thus happen that, for example, emissions for the year 2005 in the

emissions reporting for 2012 differ substantially from those given in the emissions reporting for

2018. These recalculations and the reasons for them are illustrated in the Informative Inventory

Reports (e.g. IIR 20187) always with reference to the previous report.

A decisive factor in determining the level of detail of a time series and the quality and

uncertainty of the values contained therein are the depth of detail and the quality of the input

data used. In several source groups, such as for example agriculture or road transport, the ZSE

time series solution is aggregated externally from very detailed models for calculating emissions

or for calculating material flows.

In addition to the emission inventory database of the Federal Environment Agency, an ‘emission

reduction measures’ database (EMMa) with an identical level of detail has been set up in order to

project the time series in the report taking into account the potential impact of strategies and

measures in the future. Detailed information is available from the Federal Environment Agency.

Basically, EMMa predicts the development of inventorised emissions. The aim of the inventory

reporting by means of ZSE is to indicate the actual emissions by combined emission sources

across a time series. Thus, within combustion plants that use the same fuel, there might be

installations which clearly fall below the applicable limits and other installations which due to

exemptions or transitional periods may emit above a limit. In conclusion, there is often an

implicit emission factor deviating from an existing limit averaged over all emission sources

across a time series. Similarly, when updating emissions in EMMa, compliance with the limit in

7 https://iir-de.wikidot.com/; retrieved on 25.06.2018

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force in 2020, 2025 and 2030 and assumed to be in force in the future, taking into account

exemptions or transitional periods insofar as is possible, is fundamentally assumed, and the

implied emission factor for a time series is derived from these assumptions. Sometimes, complex

external models are used for this purpose, to quantify the effects of measures. The emissions to

be reported in accordance with the ZSE methodology in 2032 retrospectively for 2030 may

deviate from the projected emissions. Reasons for this may be, for example, real emission

sources exceeding the limits in force or exemptions and transitional periods differing from

assumptions.

Different data sources have been used to update the time series for the years 2020, 2025 and

2030. Projections of the impact of current policies were made available in 2018

for the agricultural sector by the Johann Heinrich von Thu nen Institute, Federal

Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries (TI) (Thu nen Report 56,

2018),

for the transport sector by the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research,

Heidelberg (Institut fu r Energie- und Umweltforschung, (ifeu)) (TREMOD Version 5.72,

UBA, 2017) taking into account the current emission factors for diesel cars in the

Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren fu r

den Straßenverkehr (HBEFA)) Version 3.38 and

for the solvent application sector by the Institut fu r O kologie und Politik GmbH (O kopol)

as part of the report ‘Updating of the German Emission Inventory for NMVOC from

solvents for the reporting year 2013 and 2014’ (Project number 56982) and ‘Reduction

measures for NMVOC emissions from solvents in Germany’ (Project number 56071) on

behalf of the Federal Environment Agency9

Further reference projections and predicted effects of measures have been extracted from

research projects completed on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, e.g. ‘Defining and

updating emissions factors for the national emissions inventory in relation to small and medium-

sized combustion units used by households and small consumers’ (PCN 3712423132) and

‘Improving the methodological foundations and creating greenhouse gas emissions scenarios as

a basis for the Projection Report 2017 as part of EU greenhouse gas monitoring (Policy scenarios

VIII)’ (PCN 3716411050) or developed in ongoing research projects on behalf of the Federal

Environment Agency, e.g. ‘NEC Directive: Further development of the projections for

atmospheric pollutants for National Air Pollution Control Programmes (PCN 3716512020) and

‘Additional investigations for creating emission scenarios for implementing the NEC Directive ‘

(PCN 3718512420).

The EMMa database was used, building on reference projections, to record and illustrate the

further effects of strategies and measures in the most differentiated manner possible. In this way

it is possible, from the combination of reference projections and the effect of measures or

combination of measures, to create packages of measures which correspond to the conditions of

the respective scenario and to calculate their effect on emissions development.

The database offers a high level of transparency of assumptions and results. Sometimes, reliance

on the ZSE structure can however lead to huge difficulties in illustrating the reduction effect of

8 http://www.hbefa.net/d/documents/HBEFA33_Hintergrundbericht.pdf; retrieved on 10/07/2018 9 The publication of a joint final report is being prepared. A detailed description of the methodology can be found in

the final report ‘Emission data for volatile organic compounds resulting from solvent use - method evaluation, data

collection and projections’ (PCN 20143306). https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/emissionsdaten-

fuer-fluechtige-organische

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/emissionsdaten-fuer-fluechtige-organische

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/emissionsdaten-fuer-fluechtige-organische

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individual measures, for example if these affect only some of the emission sources included in a

time series or if there is not sufficient information concerning the distribution of input data such

as for example use of fuel, operating hours or thermal input. These difficulties still lead today, in

individual cases, to uncertainties in the assessment of reduction potentials of individual

measures on the basis of EMMa, which might however be steadily reduced in the medium- and

long-term by improving the data situation and adapting the time series system.

1.1.4 Significance to air quality

Predicting the significance of reducing emissions to the development of air quality is the subject

of complex research. As air quality in a certain place is influenced significantly by macro-, meso-

and micro-scale meteorological and site conditions, effects of emission reduction are not

apparent immediately and everywhere from the atmospheric pollutant concentrations

measured. Additionally, the atmospheric pollution in one location comes from numerous

emission sources. There is a rough differentiation between trans-regional or background

pollution, which sometimes contains atmospheric pollutants transported over very large

distances to the point of impact, and local additional pollution, where atmospheric pollution is

heavily determined by local emission sources in addition to background pollution. The local

additional pollution has much stronger spatial and temporal variability in comparison to the

background pollution.

In order to estimate the long-term influence of national emission reduction measures on air

quality, ‘chemistry transport models’ have been established, which deliver conclusive results

corresponding to the resolution of the input data sets up to a maximum of 1 x 1 km² model

resolution. Modelling of background concentrations is possible up to this resolution. Should the

concentrations of atmospheric pollutants be modelled with higher spatial resolution, input data

sets with much higher resolution will also be necessary to also depict the local additional

pollution. This modelling is generally only used on a small scale for local air pollution control

planning. Firstly, such high-resolution, Germany-wide modelling would require enormous

calculation and storage capacity, secondly, corresponding input data sets are sometimes not

available.

Due to the sometimes very extensive transport of atmospheric pollutants, local emissions and

emission reduction measures also account for a share of the background pollution in other

places, and national or EU-wide emission reduction measures, which impact on a group of

emission sources, also naturally have an effect on local additional pollution in close range of the

source. This effect within close range of the source of national reduction measures on additional

pollution is not generally mapped by Germany-wide modelling with appropriate resolution; the

effect of such measures on local air quality is therefore generally underestimated. Irrespective of

the effect of national emission reductions on the local additional pollution in the air, their effect

on background pollution can be conclusively estimated using the existing chemistry transport

models if all other conditions remain the same.

The results of dispersion modelling to estimate the impact of recent emissions development

from 2005 to 2015 on air quality is illustrated in Chapter 3.2.2. The impact of projected

emissions development on background pollution in the With Measures scenario (WM) and the

NEC Compliance scenario (WAM) is illustrated in Chapters 4.2 and 7.3. The model runs

conducted for these comparisons have been calculated using the 2005 meteorology (data source:

WRF - Weather Research & Forecasting Model), in order to assess the impact of recent and

projected emissions development without the influence of interannual meteorological variations.

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2 Political framework for air quality and air pollution control

2.1 Policy priorities and their relationship to priorities set in other relevant policy areas

Table 2: Policy targets in the field of air pollution control and air quality and categorisation in relation to targets in other policy areas

National emission reduction commitments compared with 2005 base year (in %)

SO2 NOX NMVOCs NH3 PM2.5

2020–2029 –21 % –39 % –13 % –5% –26%

from 2030 –58 % –65 % –28 % –29 % –43 %

Air quality priorities: national policy priorities related to EU or national air quality objectives (including limit and target values and exposure concentration obligations)

The goal is to significantly further reduce emissions of atmospheric pollutants and air pollution in Germany. For particulate matter pollution, almost complete limit adherence has already been achieved. The focus is thus now directed at air pollution by nitrogen oxide, which in many urban areas is still too high. The aim of the measures introduced by the German government and by the competent authorities in the German states is to adhere to the annual limit for nitrogen dioxide as quickly as possible.

Relevant climate change and energy policy priorities The aim of the German government’s climate policies is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 55 % in comparison with the level in 1990 by the year 2030. In terms of international climate protection, Germany is committed to an ambitious and effective implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Integrated nitrogen reduction On the basis of the German government’s first Nitrogen Report10, the BMU is preparing a national action programme for integrated nitrogen reduction.

Emission-related priorities in other policy areas Industry / Agriculture: TA Luft Agriculture: the law relating to fertilisers, farming strategy, livestock strategy Industry: Phasing out of coal-fired electricity Transport: Hardware retrofitting for diesel buses, trade and delivery vehicles and heavy-duty municipal vehicles

10 https://www.bmu.de/themen/nachhaltigkeit-internationales/nachhaltige-entwicklung/stickstoffminderung/;

retrieved on 28.09.2018

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2.2 Responsibilities attributed to national, regional and local authorities

Table 3: Responsibilities attributed to national, regional and local authorities

List of competent authorities

Type of authority (e.g. environmental inspectorate, regional environment agency, municipality)

Responsibilities in the fields of air quality and air pollution control

Federal government

Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety

– policy-making roles – Implementation (political framework, legislation)

Federal Environment Agency – Reporting to the European Commission –Departmental research as a basis for preparing draft laws and ordinances

Thünen institute – Calculating agricultural emissions of ammonia, NOX, NMVOC and particulate matter for reporting to the Federal Environmental Agency

Federal state Chief emission control authorities for the German states, higher state authorities, intermediate state authorities, lower state authorities

– state-based policy-making roles – involvement in federal legislation in the field of emission control law – state-based emission control legislation – enforcement of emission control law (inter alia monitoring of air quality and air pollution control planning)

Towns and municipalities

Enforcement of emission control law

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3 Progress made by current policies and measures in reducing emissions and improving air quality; extent of compliance with national and EU commitments, in relation to the year 2005

3.1 Emissions development from 2005 to 2016 in accordance with emissions reporting for 2018, compliance with national and EU regulations

3.1.1 Emissions development from 2005 to 2016 in accordance with emissions reporting for 2018

3.1.1.1 Development of emissions - overview

Anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric pollutants subject to reduction commitments from

2020 under the NEC Directive have already dropped considerably since 1990, with the exception

of NH3 emissions (cf. Image 1).

However, negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment remain significant

(NEC Directive, Recital 1). The emissions development in the past 10 to 15 years shows that in

many source groups highly technical reduction potentials have already been implemented and in

Germany, with steady or increasing activity rates, it is becoming increasingly demanding and

costly to effect emission reductions with the aid of process or system-integrated reduction

measures.

Under the new NEC Directive, the EU Member States are committed to reducing emissions of SO2,

NOX, NMVOC, NH3 and PM2.5 from 2020 onwards. The reductions are determined as a percentage

decrease in comparison with the emissions in the base year 2005. Firstly, the recent emissions

developments in Germany since 2005 are shown below (cf. Image 2) and the effectiveness of

strategies and measures used is quantified. The emission data shown in the image from the

emissions reporting for 2018 were reported to the European Commission in February 2018 and

are publicly available on the websites of the European Environment Agency under the following

link:

http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/eu/nec_revised/inventories/envwofk_g/index_html?&page=2

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Image 1: Emissions development of SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3 and PM2.5 from 1990 to 2016

Source Target

Entwicklung der Emissionen von 1990 bis 2016 (Emissionsberichterstattung 2018)

Emissions development from 1990 to 2016 (emissions reporting for 2018)

SO2 SO2

NOx ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NOx without NFR 3 (agriculture)

NMVOC ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NMVOC without NFR 3(agriculture)

PM2.5 PM2.5

NOx NOx

NMVOC NMVOC

NH3 NH3

Emissionen in kt/a Emissions in kt/a

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Image 2: Emissions of SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3 and PM2.5 from 2005 to 2016 (Source: Emissions reporting for 2018)

Source Target

Entwicklung der Emissionen von 2005 bis 2016 (Emissionsberichterstattung 2018)

Emissions development from 2005 to 2016 (emissions reporting for 2018)

SO2 SO2

NOx ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NOx without NFR 3 (agriculture)

NMVOC ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NMVOC without NFR 3 (agriculture)

PM2.5 PM2.5

NOx NOx

NMVOC NMVOC

NH3 NH3

Emissionen in kt/a Emissions in kt/a

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Table 4: Absolute emissions in kt/a according to Image 1 and Image 211

Pollutant or pollutant

group

Emissions reporting for 2018

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

SO2 5486 3970 3242 2906 2419 1746 1477 1227 981 801 646 625 561 533 493

NOX 2892 2649 2502 2394 2206 2171 2099 2033 2010 1985 1931 1854 1776 1720 1653

NOX without agriculture 2749 2518 2375 2272 2093 2051 1979 1915 1890 1861 1804 1732 1657 1602 1534

NMVOCs 3401 2916 2683 2532 2121 2038 1969 1943 1901 1757 1609 1506 1438 1368 1376

NMVOCs without agriculture 3122 2668 2447 2298 1887 1804 1737 1715 1677 1534 1391 1286 1225 1159 1171

NH3 743 663 649 654 629 639 646 641 646 650 647 653 640 637 626

PM2.5 197 186 186 176 173 163 157 151 147 142

Emissions reporting for 2018

Application of percentage reduction

commitment to base year 2005

according to the emissions

reporting for 2018

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2020 2025

from 2030

SO2 473 474 458 454 398 411 401 382 374 359 364 356 374 286 199

NOX 1578 1568 1499 1428 1331 1357 1341 1304 1302 1263 1239 1217 – – –

NOX without agriculture 1460 1450 1387 1307 1218 1243 1217 1184 1179 1138 1108 1091 890 701 511

NMVOCs 1323 1335 1270 1212 1115 1230 1145 1119 1105 1029 1039 1052 – – –

NMVOCs without agriculture 1120 1136 1070 1008 911 1029 944 915 896 818 832 848 974 890 806

NH3 625 626 628 633 646 626 656 643 660 662 670 663 583 513 444

PM2.5 135 131 126 120 114 121 116 110 109 104 103 101 100 88 77

11 NOx and NMVOC agricultural emissions (cf. Chapter 3.1.1.3 / 3.1.1.4)

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3.1.1.2 Development of SO2 emissions 2005 – 2016

Image 3: Development of SO2 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany

Source Target

SO2-Emissionen 2005-2016 in Deutschland (in kt)

SO2 emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany (in kt)

Emissionen in Kt/a Emissions in Kt/a

Energiewirtschaft Energy industries

Verkehr Transport

Militär Military

Industrieprozesse Industrial processes

Verarbeitendes Gewerbe Manufacturing industries

Haushalte und Kleinverbraucher Households and small consumers

Diffuse Emissionen von Brennstoffen Fugitive emissions from fuels

Abfall Waste

The main generator of SO2 emissions in Germany is the energy industry (2005: 53 %, 2016:

59 %) – in particular plants for generating electricity, above all coal-firing and industrial

processes (2005 19 %, 2016: 22 %), households and small consumers (2005: 15 %, 2016: 6 %)

and the manufacturing industry (2005: 9 %, 2016: 11%). Transport plays only a minor role in

SO2 emissions (2005: 3 %, 2016: 1 %). Fugitive emissions from fuel, emissions from other

combustion plants (military) and the waste sector are responsible for only a very small

proportion (under 1 %) of the total SO2 emissions.

In the period from 2005 to 2016, total SO2 emissions in Germany fell by almost 25 %, which

corresponds to over 117 kt. In the households and small consumers sector, the SO2 emissions

were able to be appreciably reduced by almost 48 kt. These reductions are due primarily to

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increased use of heating oil with low sulphur content (50 mg/kg instead of up to 1000 mg/kg).

Through the tax incentive, introduced on 1 January 2019, to use low-sulphur extra light heating

oil rather than heating oil with a higher sulphur content, low-sulphur extra light heating oil has

become the standard kind.

The SO2 emissions from the energy industry fell in the time period 2005 to 2016 by almost 39 kt,

the SO2 of the manufacturing industry by almost 3 kt. These reductions are due to the

implementation of emission limits in versions of the 13th Federal Emissions Control Ordinance

(Ordinance on Large Combustion Plants) of 2004 and 201312. The new version of the 13th

BImSchV of 2 May 2015 transposes a large section of the requirements of the European

Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) 2010/75/EU13into German law.

SO2 emissions from industrial processes were reduced by almost 15 kt in the period from 2005

to 2016. Over half of this reduction was achieved in the metal industry, the rest in the chemical

industry. The drop in the chemical industry is predominantly linked to production (fall in activity

rate).

3.1.1.3 Development of NOX emissions 2005 – 2016

Image 4: Development of NOX emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany

12 Thirteenth Ordinance for implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on large combustion

plants, gas turbines and combustion engines) 13 http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2010:334:0017:0119:de:PDF; retrieved on

26.06.2016

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Source Target

NOX-Emissionen 2005-2016 in Deutschland (in kt) NO2 emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany (in kt)

Emissionen in Kt/a Emissions in Kt/a


Verkehr Transport

Militär Military


Abfall Waste

Verarbeitendes Gewerbe Manufacturing



Landwirtschaft Agriculture

The main generator of NOX emissions in Germany is transport. With a share of 51 % of total

emissions in 2005 and 40 % in 2016, the proportion of emissions from transport fell

considerably in the period under consideration. The main source group in the transport sector is

road transport and here predominantly heavy-duty vehicles and diesel cars14. After transport

comes the energy industry (2005: 18 %, 2016: 24 %), households and small consumers (2005:

9 %, 2016: 11 %), agriculture (2005: 8 %, 2016: 10 %), industrial processes (2005: 7 %, 2016:

7 %) and the manufacturing industry (2005: 7 %, 2016: 7 %).

Total German NOX emissions fell by almost 23 % from 2005 to 2016, which corresponds to over

360 kt. The clearest drop in emissions was recorded in the transport sector: the emissions from

total transport fell in the time period 2005 to 2016 by over 320 kt, the NO2 emissions of road

transport was reduced by almost 307 kt. The greatest reductions occurred among heavy-duty

vehicles, including buses: In spite of increasing mileage among heavy-duty vehicles (for buses

mileage has dropped slightly), nitrogen oxide emissions have been reduced by almost 270 kt.

This is due to tightening of emission limits for heavy-duty vehicles and consistent fleet renewal

linked to that. Measures such as the lorry toll differentiated in accordance with pollutant classes

introduced in 1 January 2005 in Germany, and the environmental zones introduced since 2008

that can now be found in 58 German cities have led to a demand for low-pollution vehicle

technologies and have thus encouraged the modernisation of the vehicle fleet. The NOX

emissions from cars fell in the time period 2005 to 2016 by almost 28 kt, the NOX emissions from

lightweight commercial vehicles by almost 10 kt. For cars, mileage has increased by 11 %, and

for lightweight commercial vehicles by 13 %. The mileage of diesel cars has increased, as the

proportion of diesel cars making up the total number of vehicles rose in this time period. By

contrast, the mileage of petrol cars has fallen. Statistics relating to new certifications of cars

show that since awareness has been raised of the differences between emissions in the testing

cycle and emissions in real vehicle operation for numerous diesel cars, there has been a reversal

of this trend in favour of petrol cars. Lastly, nitrogen oxide emissions from cars and lightweight

commercial vehicles have fallen due to constant tightening of emission limits and the subsequent

modernisation of vehicle fleets. Measures which demanded fleet renewal are the environmental

zones introduced in many German cities and the scrapping premium for old vehicles granted in

2009. The NOx emissions from rail transport fell in the time period 2005 to 2016 by almost 10 kt,

and the nitrogen oxide emissions from coastal and inland waterway shipping by almost 2 kt.

These reductions were also achieved due to the tightening of emission limits. Other mobile

14 Taking into account up-to-date emission factors for diesel cars; cf. Chapter 1.1.3.2.

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sources play a secondary role. An overview of NOX emissions from transport is represented in

Image 5.

Image 5: NOX emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany

Source Target

NOX-Emissionen des Verkehrs 2005-2016 in Deutschland (in kt)

NOX emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany (in kt)

Emissionen in kt/a Emissions in Kt/a

Pkw – Ottokraftstoff Cars – petrol

Pkw – sonstige Cars – others

Schwere Nutzfahrzeuge (inkl. Busse) Heavy-duty vehicles (including buses)

Schienenverkehr Railway transport

Weitere mobile Quellen Other mobile sources

PKW – Diesel Cars – diesel

Leichte Nutzfahrzeuge Low-duty vehicles

Motorisierte Zweiräder Powered-two-wheelers (PTWs)

Küsten- und Binnenschifffahrt Coastal and inland waterway shipping

Inländischer Flugverkehr Domestic air transport

In industrial processes - above all due to reductions in the mineral industry and in the metal

industry – emissions fell from 2005 to 2016 by over 20 kt.

Slight emission reductions are also reported in the manufacturing industry (reduction 2005-

2016: around 15 kt) and among households and small consumers (reduction: almost 13 kt). The

reduction of NOX emissions among households and small consumers is predominantly due to a

reduction in use of heating oil.

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By contrast, NOX emissions rose slightly in the energy industry in the period 2005-2016. The

reasons for this are an increasing use of biomass and biogas for generating electricity and heat

and increased load change at power plants.

A slight increase in NOX emissions by around 8 kt is reported in the period 2005-2016 in

agriculture, predominantly from agricultural soils. Due to the contrasting emissions

developments from the spreading of fermentation substrates (emissions increase) and mineral

fertilisers (emissions reduction) there is no clear trend.

Reductions are not mandatory for NOX emissions from agriculture, in compliance with the

permissible emissions ceiling according to both the old NEC directive 2001/81/EC15 (in force

until 31 December 2019) and also pursuant to the newer NEC Directive.

In addition, some of the emissions from road transport are subject to the so-called ‘Inventory

Adjustment’ and may be deducted when ascertaining compliance with the reported national

emissions total16 (cf. IIR, 2018).

3.1.1.4 Development of NMVOC emissions 2005 – 2016

The main generators of NMVOC emissions in Germany are industrial processes with 57 % in

2005 and 56 % in 2016, predominantly solvent applications, which are included under the

source group ‘non-energy related products from fuels’ (share of total emissions 2005 55 %,

2016: 53 %). Further NMVOC sources are agriculture (2005: 15 %, 2016: 19 %), transport

(2005: 13 %, 2016: 9 %), fugitive emissions from fuels (2005: 7 %, 2016: 7 %), and households

and small consumers (2005: 5 %, 2016: 6 %).


26.06.2018 16 https://iir-de.wikidot.com/adjustments; retrieved on 26.06.2018

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Image 6: Development of NMVOC emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany

Source Target

NMVOC-Emissionen 2005-2016 in Deutschland (in kt)

NMVOC emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany (in kt)



Verkehr Transport

Militär Military


Abfall Waste





In the time period 2005-2016, the total German NMVOC emissions were reduced by over 20 %,

which corresponds to over 271 kt.

The most significant percentage reductions reported here are in relation to transport (reduction

of around 81 kt) – mainly in road transport. NMVOC emissions are generated above all by petrol

cars and motorbikes (see Image 7). Due to further development of catalytic converters, above all

in petrol cars, marked NMVOC reductions have been achieved. The proportion of petrol cars

making up the total number of vehicles and the mileage of petrol cars has intermittently

decreased, while the proportion of diesel cars and their mileage has increased. This development

likewise led to a fall in NMVOC emissions. Meanwhile, a trend reversal has emerged in relation to

new certifications (see above).

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Another significant source of NMVOC emissions is vaporisation from vehicle tanks. The quantity

of NMVOC released through vaporisation from vehicle tanks fell - in parallel to the quantity of

consumption-related emissions - in previous years. These emissions were able to be reduced

slightly in previous years due to careful sealing of fuel systems and installation of active coal

filters in the tank.

Image 7: NMVOC emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany

Source Target

NMVOC-Emissionen des Verkehrs 2005-2016 in Deutschland (in kt)



Pkw – Ottokraftstoff Cars– petrol

Leichte Nutzfahrzeuge Light-duty vehicles


sonstige other



NMVOC aus verdunstetem Kraftsoff NMVOC from evaporated fuels

The NMVOC emissions from industrial processes were reduced by almost 166 kt in the period

from 2005 to 2016. This decrease is almost 100 % due to the drop in emissions from solvent and

product applications. Rules for limiting NMVOC emissions from product applications on EU level

are

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a) the Solvent Emissions Directive 1999/13/EC17 (also known as the VOC Directive), which

was incorporated into the IED Directive 2010/75/EU18 in 2010, and

b) The so-called DECOPAINT Directive 2004/42/EC19.

The IED Directive covers certain kinds of installation in relation to product applications (inter

alia coating installations, printing installations, surface cleaning installations, textile cleaning

installations, rubber conversion installations and installations for producing coating substances,

adhesives, printing inks and pharmaceuticals), in which organic solvents are used and the annual

solvent consumption exceeds specific limits. The regulations on product applications from the

IED Directive are transposed into German law by means of the 31st BImSchV20 and the 2nd

BImSchV21. The TA Luft22 of 24 July 2002 also establishes NMVOC emission limits for individual

installations which are subject to approval.

The DECOPAINT Directive gradually limits the solvent content in certain paints, varnishes and

coating materials (Phase I since 1 January 2007, Phase II since 1 January 2010). The DECOPAINT

Directive comprises only the coating of fixed construction products (e.g. doors, windows, steps,

heating elements). Items such as furniture, which are not permanently attached to a building ,

are excluded from the application of the directive. This directive was transposed into German

law with the Solvent-based Paints and Varnishes Ordinance23. In the use of paints and varnishes,

emissions could be reduced primarily through the limits set out in the DECOPAINT directive for

solvent content in paints, varnishes and other coating materials. The German eco label ‘Blue

Angel’ supported this development by labelling products with a low solvent content.

Reductions in NMVOC emissions are also reported in the printing industry. These reductions are

due primarily to a reduced use of isopropanol as an additive for moistening agents in printing

applications. In addition, changing technologies (i.e. less book printing, more digital printing)

impact upon the emissions of this source group.

Regarding private use of solvent-based products, emissions from several product groups (e.g. use

of deodorants) has fallen, in other areas however NMVOC emissions have increased (e.g. in the

use of hair spray and in pharmaceutical products), so that the emissions from this source sub-

group increased overall in the period from 2005 to 2016.

Fugitive emissions from fuel were reduced by almost 14 kt in the period from 2005 to 2016

through the introduction of limits in the Ordinance on Limiting Emissions of Volatile Organic

Compounds for siphoning and storing of petrol, fuel mixtures or petroleum24 (20th BImSchV)

17 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:31999L0013&from=EN; retrieved on

26/06/2018 18 http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2010:334:0017:0119:en:PDF; retrieved on

26/06/2018 19 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32004L0042&from=DE; retrieved on

26/06/2018 20 31st Ordinance for implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on limiting emissions of

volatile organic compounds in the use of organic solvents in certain installations - 31st BImSchV) 21 Second Ordinance for implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on limiting emissions of

volatile halogenated organic compounds - 2nd BImSchV) 22 First General Administrative Regulation of the Federal Emissions Control Act, Technical Instructions on Air Quality

Control - TA Luft 23 Chemical-legal Ordinance on Limiting Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) through restrictions on

marketing of solvent-based paints and varnishes (Solvent-based Paints and Varnishes Ordinance - ChemVOCFarbV) 24 20th Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on Limiting Emissions of

Volatile Organic Compounds in the Siphoning and Storing of Petrol, Fuel Mixtures or Petroleum - 20th BImSchV)

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and the Ordinance for Limiting Hydrocarbon Emissions during the Fuelling of Motor Vehicles25

(21st BImSchV). Clear reductions in NMVOC emissions were achieved in particular through

equipping of petrol stations with gas displacement and gas vapour recovery systems.

NMVOC emissions from small combustion plants (households and small consumers) were

reduced by over 8 kt in the period from 2005 to 2016. This emissions reduction is a side effect of

the Ordinance on Small and Medium-Sized Combustion Plants (1st BImSchV)26. NMVOC

emissions are also reduced through optimisation of fuel combustion activities for dust reduction.

NMVOC emissions from agriculture, by contrast, have remained largely constant at around 204

kt, agricultural NMVOC emissions come predominantly from fertiliser management (primarily

from cattle farming) and to a lesser extent from cereal production. Reductions are not

mandatory for NMVOC emissions from agriculture, in compliance with the permissible emissions

ceiling according to both the old NEC directive 2001/81/EC27 (in force until 31 December 2019)

and also pursuant to the newer NEC Directive.

3.1.1.5 Development of NH3 emissions 2005 – 2016

NH3 emissions originated from agriculture in around 93 % of cases in 2005 and in around 95 %

of cases in 2016. Over half (2005: 310 kt, 2016: 361 kt) of agricultural ammonia emissions come

from the spreading of organic fertilisers, including pasturage, mineral fertilisers and

fermentation residues. The remaining emissions are primarily emissions from stabling and

storing of agricultural fertiliser in animal husbandry. Another NH3 source is transport, with a

share of 4 % of total NH3 emissions in the year 2005 and of 2 % in the year 2016, predominantly

petrol cars, in which ammonia is formed as a by-product in three-way catalytic converters. By

contrast, diesel engines emit less NH3 than petrol engines due to the higher air surplus.

Ammonia is also released in industrial processes (share of NH3 emissions from industrial

processes, of the total NH3 emissions: 2005: 2 %, 2016: 2 %), primarily in the production of

fertiliser, ammonia and nitric acid and in the use of coolants.

In the time period 2005 - 2016, total German ammonia emissions increased by around 6 %,

which corresponds to over 37 kt per year. This increase is primarily due to the increase in

spreading residues from the fermentation of energy crops in biogas installations. As regards the

spreading of mineral fertilisers, the increasing proportion of urea, with a comparatively high

emission factor, is responsible for increasing emissions.

A clear increase is reported in poultry numbers. In addition, the number of pigs rose slightly in

the time period from 2005 to 2016. The number of dairy cows, other cattle and sheep, goats and

horses fell, however. In total, ammonia emissions from stabling and storing has fallen slightly (a

reduction of almost 5 kt).

In the transport sector, a reduction of ammonia emissions by almost 10 kt is reported. This

decrease was achieved by means of the technical optimisation of catalytic converters in petrol

vehicles. The temporary increase in the proportion of diesel vehicles in the total number of

vehicles also led to a drop in the NH3 emissions from transport.

25 21st Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance for Limiting Hydrocarbon

Emissions during the Fuelling of Motor Vehicles– 21st BImSchV) 26 First Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on Small and Medium-sized

Combustion Plants– 1st BImSchV) 27 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32001L0081&from=DE; retrieved on

26.06.2018

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Emissions from storage and spreading of fermentation residues from the cultivation of energy

crops are recorded and reported in the Emissions Inventory. As these emission sources were not

yet recorded in the inventory when the emission ceilings were set in the old NEC Directive

2001/81/EG28, however, their NH3 emissions have to be deducted from the reported national

emissions total in the so-called ‘National Total for Compliance’29. This is also the case for the

national reduction commitment of the new NEC Directive for 2020, but not for the national

reduction commitment for 2030 (cf. IIR, 2018).

Image 8: Development of NH3 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany

Source Target

NH3-Emissionen von 2005-2016 in Deutschland NH3 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany




Tierhaltung (Stall und Lager) Animal husbandry (stabling and storage)


Militär Military

Düngerausbringung inkl Weidegang Spreading manure including pasturage

Verkehr Transport


Abfall Waste


26/06/2018 29 https://iir-de.wikidot.com/adjustments; retrieved on 26/06/2018

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3.1.1.6 Development of PM2.5 emissions 2005 – 2016

The main sources for primary PM2.5 emissions in Germany are transport (share of total

emissions: 2005: 34 %, 2016: 25 %), industrial processes (2005: 23 %, 2016: 25 %), and

households and small consumers (2005: 22 %, 2016: 26 %). Other relevant sources are the

energy industry (Share of emissions 2005: 8 %, 2016: 9 %), waste management (2005: 4 %,

2016: 6 %), agriculture (2005: 3 %, 2016: 5 %) and the manufacturing industry (2005: 3 %,

2016: 4 %).

Image 9: Development of PM2.5 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany

Source Target

PM2,5-Emissionen 2005-2016 in Deutschland (in kt) PM2.5emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany (in kt)


Verkehr Transport

Militär Military


Abfall Waste






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The total German PM2.5 direct emissions fell in the time period from 2005 to 2016 by around

25 %, which corresponds to around 34 kt. Significant reductions are reported primarily in

relation to transport (reduction of primary PM2.5 emissions by all transport in the time period

from 2005 to 2016: around 21 kt, in road transport around 17 kt). PM2.5 exhaust emissions

originate predominantly from diesel vehicles (cars, light and heavy-duty vehicles). Emissions

from abrasion of tyres and brake pads and from road wear likewise play an important role.

While primary PM2.5 emissions from vehicle propulsion have been markedly reduced due to

constant tightening of emission limits (European standards) for car, light and heavy-duty

vehicles and through the fleet modernisation that occurred as a result, emissions from abrasion

have risen due to increasing mileage.

In rail transport, alongside PM2.5 emissions from vehicle propulsion, since the 2018 Report

emissions from abrasion of brakes, rails and overhead lines are also reported. The emissions

from this source sub-group has hardly changed in recent years.

The PM2.5 emissions from coastal and inland waterway shipping has been reduced in recent

years through the implementation of emission limits for ships.

An overview of PM2.5 emissions from transport is represented in Image 10.

Image 10: PM2.5 emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany

Source Target

PM2,5-Emissionen des Verkehrs 2005-2016 in (in kt) PM2.5 emissions from transport 2005-2016 in (in kt)

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Pkw – Ottokraftstoff Cars– petrol

Pkw – sonstige Cars– others


Schienenverkehr Railway transport

Weitere mobile Quellen Other mobile sources

Emissionen aus Reifen- & Bremsabrieb Emissions from tyre and brake abrasion


Leichte Nutzfahrzeuge Low-duty vehicles


Küsten- und Binnenschifffahrt Coastal and inland waterway shipping

Inländischer Flugverkehr Domestic air transport

Emissionen aus Straßenabrieb Emissions from road wear

PM2.5 emissions from industrial processes have also fallen substantially (by over 6 kt),

predominantly in the metal and mineral industry.

There have also been reductions in PM2.5 emissions in the manufacturing industry source group

(Reduction: 1 kt) and in the energy industry (reduction: almost 2 kt). These reductions are

predominantly due to the introduction of emission limits in the 13th BImSchV30.

As regards households and small consumers, PM2.5 emissions have been reduced by almost 4 kt

in the time period from 2005 to 2016. Although the use of firewood for heating purposes has

very markedly risen in recent years, the introduction of ambitious emission limits in the 1st

BImSchV31for small combustion units both in the private and in the industrial sector has allowed

PM2.5 emissions to be reduced overall.

By contrast, slight emission increases are reported in agriculture. The increase in agricultural

primary PM2.5 emissions is primarily due to an increase in poultry numbers.

3.1.2 Compliance with the emission reduction commitments in force

Table 5 shows the emissions of SO2, NOX, NMVOCs and NH3 reported in 2018 in Germany for

2005 and for the time period from 2010 to 2016. Since the review of the Gothenburg protocol32

under the Geneva Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), emissions

reporting has been available with the Inventory Adjustment, an instrument which allows certain

emissions to be deducted in the calculation of meeting the targets of Directive 2001/81/EC33.

This affects, for example, emissions from source groups which were not yet recorded in the

inventory when the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) in force since 2010 were set. For the

German inventory, three adjustments were applied for as part of the emissions reporting for

2018. The validity of these have been confirmed by a review under the CLRTAP. It involves some

30 Thirteenth Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on Large Combustion

Plants, Gas Turbines and Combustion Engines) 31 First Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on Small and Medium-Sized

Combustion Plants) 32 http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/multi_h1.html; retrieved on 05/07/2018 33 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32001L0081&from=DE; retrieved on

26/06/2018

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of the NOX emissions from road transport, the NOX and NMVOC emissions from agriculture and

the NH3 emissions from the fermentation of energy plants and spreading of energy plant

fermentation residue. The middle section of Table 5 shows the adjustments confirmed for the

German emissions inventory in 2018. These are publicly available on the websites of the

European Environment Agency under the following link:

htp://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/eu/nec_revised/inventories/envwofk_g/DE_2018_Table_VII_ApA

pprov_Adjustments.xlsx/manage_document

Table 5: Compliance with emission ceilings in force since 2010 pursuant to Directive 2001/81/EC according to emissions reporting for 2018 (cf. IIR, 2018)

2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NEC

national emissions quantities according to emissions reporting for 2018

NOX 1577 1357 1342 1304 1304 1265 1241 1218

NMVOCs 1324 1230 1146 1120 1105 1029 1039 1052

NH3 625 626 656 644 660 662 670 663

confirmed adjustments for checking compliance with national emission ceilings

pursuant to Directive 2001/81/EC

NOX -318 -287 -299 -298 -303 -296 -280 -250

NMVOCs -203 -201 -201 -204 -209 -210 -207 -204

NH3 -11 -40 -50 -51 -60 -60 -61 -61

Emissions quantities after adjustment and colour-coded compliance with the permissible national emission ceilings in force pursuant to

Directive 2001/81/EC according to emissions reporting for 2018

NOX 1259 1071 1043 1007 1000 968 961 969 1051

NMVOCs 1121 1029 945 916 896 819 832 848 995

NH3 614 586 606 592 600 601 610 602 550

Taking into account the confirmed adjustments, in 2016 only ammonia failed to comply with the

permissible national emission ceilings pursuant to Directive 2001/81/EC (see Table 5). Germany

has fallen significantly below the national emissions ceiling for sulphur dioxide for years. The

NOX and NMVOC emissions have been below the permissible national emission ceiling since the

year 2011. By contrast, ammonia emissions markedly exceed the permitted emission quantity in

all years. However, in the agricultural source groups, primarily in relation to the spreading of

mineral fertiliser, there have repeatedly been substantial changes in recent years to the emission

factor recommended on international level. The permissible ammonia emission ceiling was met

for example according to emissions reporting for 2012 and for 2014, while the emissions

reporting for 2013 and from 2015 onwards show the highest quantity permissible for ammonia

since 2010 being continually exceeded. As compliance with ammonia regulations seemed likely

until emissions reporting for 2015, implementation of additional measures for reducing

ammonia emissions was delayed. The adoption of the Fertiliser Ordinance in 201734, through

34 Ordinance on the Use of Fertilisers, Soil Improvers, Growing Media and Plant Adjuvants based on the Principles of

Good Professional Practice in Fertilisation (Fertiliser Ordinance - Du V) of 26/05/2017

http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/eu/nec_revised/inventories/envwofk_g/DE_2018_Table_VII_ApApprov_Adjustments.xlsx/manage_document

http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/eu/nec_revised/inventories/envwofk_g/DE_2018_Table_VII_ApApprov_Adjustments.xlsx/manage_document

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which in particular reinforced provisions of the Nitrates Directive 91/676/EEC35 were

implemented in Germany, is the first measure to come into force for reduction of NH3 emissions.

Additionally it must be mentioned that the national emission ceilings agreed under international

law in the Gothenburg protocol for the year 2010 for the pollutants SO2 and NOX were 30 kt over

the national emission ceilings of the NEC Directive. The Gothenburg protocol sets a national

emission ceiling for Germany for SO2 of 550 kt and for NOX of 1 081 kt. For SO2, emissions have

consequently likewise fallen far below the limit for years. The emission ceiling set in the

Gothenburg protocol for NOX has been met since 2010.

From the year 2020, the absolute national emission ceilings in force up to that point will be

replaced by percentage reduction commitments in comparison with the base year 2005, in

accordance with the provisions of the new NEC Directive.

3.2 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2016

3.2.1 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2016 - compliance with national and EU regulations

3.2.1.1 Methodology for assessment for development of air quality

The assessment of ambient air quality takes place in consideration of the yearly reports on air

quality to the EU Commission pursuant to the Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC and the content

of the annual evaluation of the development of ambient air quality by the Federal Environment

Agency for informing the general public.

The Air Quality Directive regulates the assessment of ambient air quality for the entire state

territory of each Member State. In this way there is a sub-division into conurbations and

individual areas. Measurements primarily take place where the highest pollution from humans is

expected. In conurbations with more than 250 000 inhabitants and in areas in which

concentrations are close to the limits set, there is an obligation to monitor the ambient air

quality through measurement. If the concentrations fall below the established thresholds,

guiding (which for example take place less frequently) measurements, model calculations,

objective estimates or emission inventories can also be used for assessment. Since 2014

(assessment year 2013), both the results and also information about the air quality monitoring

stations and the primary validated data in accordance with the requirements of Commission

Implementing Decision 2011/850/EU36 are sent in the new E-reporting format. All of Germany’s

reports are publicly available on the European Environment Agency website:

http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/eu/aqd

In the following chapters, assessments are carried out of the development of ambient air quality,

specifically in relation to atmospheric pollutants, based on the format and the content of the

reporting. The emission trends, averaged over all stations of a certain station type for which

there is a sufficiently long time series, are each illustrated here and supplemented by

concentration maps. Unlike maps showing breaches of territorial limit or target values, in these

maps the measured values are shown combined with model results for the pollutants particulate 35 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:31991L0676&from=DE; retrieved on

26/06/2081 36 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32011D0850&from=EN; retrieved on

26/06/2018

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matter, nitrogen dioxide and ozone, irrespective of area. This representation provides an

estimation of the spatial distribution of concentrations of atmospheric pollutants and is publicly

available via an interactive map service:

http://gis.uba.de/Website/luft/index.html

Additionally, an estimation of the exceedance situation is likewise divided according to

pollutants based on the share of monitoring stations in breach of limit or target values and on

the basis of a territorial assessment. For a better overview, there is in each case a map in which

all areas with breaches of limit or target values are coloured in red. This however does not mean

that the entire area is affected by high concentrations of pollutants, because if even a single

station breaches the limit, the entire assessment area is coloured red.

An overview is given below of which areas or conurbations have exceeded a limit or target value

for the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. The assessments are based on data and

information from 16 federal states and the monitoring network of the Federal Environment

Agency. When the national Air Pollution Control Programme was created, a detailed assessment

of the data was only available up to 2016, thus the images relate to the time period up to 2016.

3.2.1.2 Development of NO2 concentrations

Traffic-related, inner-city nitrogen oxygen pollution has fallen significantly since 2005, but up to

2016, over half of all monitoring stations were over the limit of 40 µg/m³. The level of pollution

is primarily determined by local emission sources - in particular by traffic in conurbations - with

only minor inter-annual variations. As regards urban background and monitoring stations close

to industry, where traffic is not the dominant source, but a source alongside other important

pollutants like the energy sector and industry, average concentrations have dropped from

around 25 µg/m³ to around 21 µg/m³ since 2005. The corresponding station values were and

are, with limited exceptions, safely below the limit. In rural areas, not typical NOX emission

sources, only a small reduction is reported, typically the concentrations here are around 10

µg/m³.

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Image 11: Development of the annual average of measured NO2 concentrations

Source Target

Entwicklung der NO2- Jahresmittelwerte Development of NO2 annual averages

Im Mittel über ausgewählte Messstationen im jeweiligen Belastungsregime, Zeitraum 2005-2016

Average over selected monitoring stations in the respective pollution regime, time period 2005-2016

g/m3 g/m3

ländlicher Hintergrund rural background

städtischer Hintergrund urban background

städtisch verkehrsnah urban close to traffic

Industrienah close to industry

Image 12 shows the spatially resolved pollution by NO2 as an annual average from 2005 to 2016.

The concentrations across the territory were modelled on the basis of data from the emissions

inventory by means of a chemistry transport model. In this way, the measured values of the

background stations were incorporated for optimal interpolation (Flemming and Stern, 2004).

Additionally, the annual values measured at stations close to traffic are represented as point

information. The image shows that increased NO2 values in the territory occurred primarily in

densely populated conurbations and on transport routes. The values in German territory have

decreased considerably as a result of this assessment, the values of point measurements close to

traffic were and are for the most part above the limit, sometimes by a significant amount.

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Image 12: Modelled concentration maps for development of the annual average of measured NO2 concentrations with point information of measured values from stations close to traffic

Source Target

Stickstoffdioxid (NO2) – Jahresmittelwerte Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) – annual averages

Stickstoffdioxid in g/m3 Nitrogen dioxide in g/m3

Umwelt Bundesamt Federal Environment Agency

3.2.1.3 NO2 exceedance situations

The exceedance situations relating to the annual and hourly limit were considered from the

introduction of the limit in the year 2010.

3.2.1.3.1 NO2 annual limit (40µg/m³)

It is clear that breaches of the NO2 annual limit have almost exclusively been recorded at stations

close to traffic. The proportion of the stations close to traffic affected fell from over 70 % in the

year 2010 to almost 60 % in the year 201637. Very sporadically, there were breaches in the years

2010 to 2014 of the annual limit at urban background stations. Along with the reduction in

stations exceeding the limit, the proportion of areas and conurbations affected fell from 66 % in

2010 to 57 % in the year 2016.

37 In the year 2017, around 45 % of the stations close to traffic breached the annual limit for NO2

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Table 6: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the NO2 annual limit to the total number of stations per station type used for assessment.

Station type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

rural background 0 / 70 0 / 72 0 / 73 0 / 73 0 / 74 0 / 75 0 / 75

urban/suburban background 2 / 179 1 / 174 1 / 171 1 / 176 1 / 177 0 / 174 0 / 173

close to traffic 163 / 219 172 / 229 170 / 244 168 / 250 148 / 238 142 / 244 145 / 246

close to industry 0 / 21 0 / 21 0 / 20 0 / 23 0 / 24 0 / 25 0 / 25

Image 13: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for NO2 according to assessment areas (average annual value)

Source Target

Überschreitungssituation in den Beurteilungsgebieten

Exceedance situation in assessment areas

Stickstoffdioxid (NO2) – Jahresmittelwert (40 g/m3) Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) – annual average (40 g/m3)

Stationen Stations

mit Überschreitung With exceedance

Gebiete Areas

Ohne Überschreitung Without exceedance

Mit Überschreitung With exceedance


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Table 7: Development of the proportion of the assessment areas (number) with exceedance of the permissible NO2 average annual value

3.2.1.3.2 NO2 hourly limit (200 µg/m³ not more frequently than 18 times a year)

Exceedances of the hourly limit have occurred only occasionally since its introduction, consistent

with fewer than 6 % of stations close to traffic and at one station close to industry in the year

201238. The territorial assessment shows that the breaches (even if declining) are a local

problem close to these areas and conurbations.

Table 8: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the NO2 hourly limit to the total number of stations per station type used for assessment.

Station type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



close to traffic 7 / 139 7 / 134 4 / 133 4 / 126 3 / 132 5 / 129 2 / 128


38 In the year 2017, for the first time no breach of the hourly limit for NO2 was recorded,

Proportion of assessment areas

exceeding limit - annual average 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

66 % 67 % 69 % 62 % 56 % 56 % 57 %

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Image 14: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for NO2 according to assessment areas (average hourly value)

Source Target



Stickstoffdioxid (NO2) – Stundengrenzwert (200

g/m3, 18 Stunden zulässig) Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) – hourly limit (200 g/m3, 18 hours permissible)

Stationen Stations


Gebiete Areas




Table 9: Development of the proportion of assessment areas with exceedance of the permissible NO2 hourly average

Proportion of assessment areas exceeding limit - hourly average

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

6 % 6 % 5 % 3 % 3 % 4 % 2 %

3.2.1.4 Development of PM10 concentrations

Along with large-scale and local reductions of direct PM10 emissions and of precursor gases for

build-up of secondary particulate matter in the atmosphere, the measured PM10 concentrations

from all station types fell markedly in the time period from 2005 to 2016. This period is however

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characterised by strong inter-annual variations, which are due primarily to the different weather

conditions. As well as the emission source strength, pollution depends significantly on

meteorological conditions. Thus direction of flow and wind speed determine whether particulate

matter is transported near or far away, the layer of the atmosphere determines dilution or

enrichment. The direction from which the air masses are transported also plays an important

role in particulate matter pollution. For example, eastern weather conditions in connection with

still atmospheric conditions often lead to increased concentrations of particulate matter, in

particular in the eastern German states.

Image 15: Development of the annual average of measured PM10 concentrations

Source Target

Entwicklung der PM10-Jahresmittelwerte Development of PM10 annual averages

In Mittel über ausgewählte Messstationen im jeweiligen Belastungsregime, Zeitraum 2005-2016

Average over selected monitoring stations in the respective pollution regime, time period 2005-2016

g/m3 g/m3



städtisch verkehrsnah urban close to traffic

Industrienah close to industry

The representation of the spatial pollution by PM10 in Image 16 (created from a combination of

measurements and model calculations) for the past year shows that the concentrations over the

entire territory of Germany have fallen. Locally higher values, measured at stations close to

traffic, are represented as points. Since 2012, all concentration values (across the territory and at

the points) are below the annual limit.

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Image 16: Modelled concentration maps for development of the annual average of measured PM10 concentrations with point information of measured values from stations close to traffic and to industry

Source Target

Feinstaub (PM10) – Jahresmittelwerte Particulate matter (PM10) – annual averages

Feinstaub PM10 Particulate matter PM10


3.2.1.5 PM10 exceedance situations

3.2.1.5.1 PM10 daily limit (50 µg/m³ not more frequently than 35 times per calendar year)

Measured daily values over 50 µg/m³ occurred during particulate matter episodes or days

featuring special events such as New Year’s fireworks extensively and thus at all types of

stations. On more than 35 days a year, this happened mostly at stations close to traffic and close

to industry, where the direct pollution from road transport and/or industrial installations is

added to the basic background pollution.

The number of stations affected by exceedances of the daily limit have decreased significantly

since the introduction of the limit in 2005, currently (2016) there was a breach at only one

station close to traffic in the whole of Germany.

Along with the reduction in stations exceeding the limit, the percentage of areas and

conurbations affected of the total number of areas assessed has fallen since 2005 from over 30 %

to 1 % in the year 2016.

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Table 10: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the PM10 daily limit to the total number of stations per station type used for assessment.

Station type 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

rural background 0 / 69 0 / 66 0 / 64 0 / 63 0 / 61 1 / 62

urban/suburban background 1 / 181 10 / 180 0 / 172 0 / 174 0 / 176 5 / 169

close to traffic 52 / 120 85 / 153 33 / 166 16 / 156 30 / 151 50 / 147

close to industry 7 / 33 7 / 29 4 / 28 1 / 34 3 / 35 5 / 38

station type 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



close to traffic 65 / 146 9 / 137 11 / 135 10 / 130 3 / 124 1 / 126


Image 17: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for PM10 according to assessment areas (average annual value)

Source Target

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Feinstaub (PM10) – Tagesgrenzwert (50 g/m3, maximal 35 Überschreitungstage)

Particulate matter (PM10) – daily limit (50 g/m3, maximum of 35 exceedance days)

Stationen Stations


Gebiete Areas




Table 11: Development of the proportion of assessment areas with exceedance of the permissible PM10 daily average

Proportion of areas exceeding limit

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Daily average 36 % 45 % 18 % 15 % 20 % 27 % 41 % 9 % 10 % 9 % 3 % 1 %

3.2.1.5.2 PM10 annual limit (40 µg/m³)

Since the introduction of the annual limit in 2005, it has been breached sporadically, mainly by

stations close to traffic in Germany. Since 2012, no more breaches of the limit have been

recorded. Those predominantly affected by the few limit breaches were areas and conurbations

in eastern and southern Germany.

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Table 12: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the PM10 annual limit to the total number of stations per station type used for assessment.

Station type 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



close to traffic 4 / 120 6 / 153 1 / 166 1 / 156 1 / 151 2 / 147


Station type 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



close to traffic 1 / 146 0 / 137 0 / 135 0 / 130 0 / 124 0 / 126


Table 13: Development of the proportion of assessment areas with exceedance of the permissible PM10 annual average

Proportion of areas exceeding limit 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2016

Annual average 4 % 6 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 2 % 1 % 0 % 0 %

3.2.1.6 Development of PM2.5 concentrations

3.2.1.6.1 Average Exposure Indicator (AEI)

Similar to the declining PM10 concentrations, the annual average concentrations of the smaller

PM2.5 fraction have also decreased. In calculating the Average Exposure Indicator (AEI), annual

average values of stations in the urban background are also included. As an initial value for the

year 2010, an AEI for Germany of 16.4 μg/m³ was calculated as an average value across the

stations considered in the years 2008 to 2010. Derived from this, according to the provisions in

Annex XIV of the Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC, is a national reduction target of 15 % up to

the year 2020. Accordingly, the AEI calculated for the year 2020 (average value for the years

2018, 2019, 2020) does not exceed the value of 13.9 μg/m³. In 2016, the average value of the

years 2014, 2015, 2016 was below the target to be reached for 2020.

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Image 18: Representation of the Average Exposure Indicator (AEI) for PM2.5 since 2010

Source Target

PM2,5 - (AEI) Average Exposure Indicator) PM2.5 - (AEI) Average Exposure Indicator)

Indikator für die durchschnittliche Exposition (13,9

g/m3 dürfen ab 2020 nicht mehr überschritten werden)

Indicator for average exposure (13.9 g/m3 may no longer be exceeded after 2020)

g/m3 g/m3

3.2.1.6.2 PM2.5 annual limit (25 µg/m³)

Compliance with this target or limit (25 µg/m³as an annual average) is not at risk in Germany.

Since its introduction in the year 2010, a station close to traffic has only once breached the limit.

Table 14: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the PM2.5 annual limit to the total number of stations per station type used for assessment.

Station type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



close to traffic 1 / 39 0 / 43 0 / 45 0 / 50 0 / 57 0 / 61 0 / 63


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Table 15: Development of the proportion of assessment areas with exceedance of the permissible PM2.5 annual average

Proportion of areas exceeding limit 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual average 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

3.2.1.7 Development of O3 concentrations

The development of ozone pollution is Germany does not reflect the general declining trend of

emissions of the precursor gases NOX, NMVOC, methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO) at all

points. Ozone concentrations are subject to stronger daily and annual variations than small-scale

variability, according to the reactions contributing to the formation of ozone and the

deterioration processes. The difference between the stations is thus lower, only locations close to

traffic often have lower concentrations than stations in the rural background, inter alia due to

interactions based on high NO emissions, which lead to the deterioration of the ozone.

Looking at the average number of days on which the highest sliding average built up over eight

hours exceeds the concentration of 120 µg/m³, this number has hardly changed since 2005,

taking into account the strong inter-annual variations caused by meteorology. Compliance with

this concentration value over the whole year is defined in the EU Air Quality Directive

2008/50/EC as a long-term objective. However, alongside the exceedance situation that is almost

unchanged since the 1990s, a decrease in peak concentrations measured has been reported. This

development is also confirmed by the results of the dispersion modelling for 2005 and 2015

carried out based on the emissions development of 2005 to 2015 in the current provisions of the

“NEC Directive: Further development of the projections for atmospheric pollutants for National

Air Pollution Control Programmes (PCN 3716512020).

Overall, it must be stated that for an effective reduction in ozone concentrations, further

reductions of emissions of all ozone precursor substances are necessary.

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Image 19: Development of the highest daily and hourly eight-hour averages for O3

Source Target

Ozon – Überschreitungstage des langfristigen Zieles Ozone - days exceeding the long-term objective

(120 g/m3 als höchster täglicher 8-Stunden-Mittelwert, im Mittel über durchgängig messende Stationen im jeweiligen Belastungsregime, Zeitraum 2005-2016)

(120 g/m3 as the highest daily 8-hour average, in average over continuously measuring stations in the respective pollution regime, time period 2005-2016)



Stagnation is also becoming clear in the number of days exceeding 120 µg/m³ in the progression

of the three-year average of the highest daily eight-hour averages (cf. Image 20, target value for

protection of human health).

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Image 20: Development of the three-year average of the highest daily eight-hour average for O3

Source Target

Ozon – Überschreitungstage des Zielwertes Ozone - days exceeding the long-term objective

(3-Jahresmittel der Zahl der Tage mit tägl. Max. 8-

Stunden-Mittelwert > 120 g/m3, im Mittel über durchgängig messende Stationen im jeweiligen Belastungsregime, Zeitraum 2005-2016)

(3 annual average of the number of days with daily

maximum 8-hour average > 120 g/m3, in average over continuously measuring stations in the respective pollution regime, time period 2005-2016)



The exceptionally hot summer of 2003, with the favourable atmospheric conditions for the

formation of low-level ozone, is clearly reflected in the three-year average for 2003-2005.

Subsequently, 2006 and 2015 were once again ozone-rich years, but this caused only a low

increase in the concentration values.

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Image 21: Modelled concentration maps for development of the three-year average of measured O3 concentrations

Source Target

Zahl der Tage mit maximalen Ozonkonzentrationen

über 120 g/m3 gemittelt über 3 Jahre

Number of days with maximum ozone concentration

over 120 g/m3 averaged over 3 years

Ozon ozone

Zahl Tage >120 g/m3 Number of days > 120 g3

Zielwert 25 Tage Target value 25 days


3.2.1.8 O3 exceedance situations

3.2.1.8.1 O3 long-term scenarios (120 µg/m³ for daily maximum eight-hour average)

Sliding eight-hour average values over 120 µg/m³ occur extensively across Germany, other than

at stations close to traffic. Without exception, all areas and conurbations have been affected by

exceedances of the long-term objective continuously since 2010.

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Table 16: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the O3 long-term objective to the total number of stations per station type used for assessment.

Station type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



close to traffic 15 / 16 9 / 12 8 / 9 7 / 8 6 / 8 5 / 7 7 / 7


Table 17: Development of the proportion of the assessment areas with exceedance of the long-term target for O3

Proportion of areas exceeding the long-term objective

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

100 %

3.2.1.8.2 O3 target value (120 µg/m³ for three-year average of the daily maximum eight-

hour average not more frequently than 25 times in relation to one year)

The ozone target value is considered to be exceeded if on more than 25 days in the three-year

average daily maximum eight-hour averages over 120 µg/m³occur. This happens predominantly

at stations in the rural background, and to a lesser extent also at stations in the urban

background (sporadically also close to industry). Due to the ozone-rich summer of 2015, more

exceedances than previous years were recorded in particular in the assessment years 2015 and

2016.

Table 18: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the O3 objective to the total number of stations per station type used for assessment.

Station type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



close to traffic 0 / 19 0 / 18 0 / 15 0 / 12 0 / 10 0 / 9 0 / 8


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Image 22: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for O3 according to assessment areas (target value)

Source Target



Ozon – 8-Stundenmittelwert gemittelt über 3 Jahre

(120 g/m3, maximal 25 Überschreitungstage)

Ozone – 8-hourly average averaged over 3 years

(120 g/m3, maximum 25 exceedance days)

Stationen Stations


Gebiete Areas




Table 19: Development of the proportion of assessment areas with exceedance of the target value for O3

Proportion of areas exceeding the long-term objective

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

21 % 18 % 20 % 16 % 16 % 36 % 46 %

3.2.1.9 CO exceedance situations

There must be no exceedance of the daily maximum eight-hour average of 10 mg/m³. The CO

concentrations have been far below the limit values in force across Germany since 2010. Since

2010, only two stations have ever exceeded the limit value. Both cases were caused by accidents

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in industrial plants. The declining trend of concentrations has also however led to a drop in the

number of stations subject to monitoring. The number of stations with CO concentration

monitoring in Germany has thus fallen in recent years from around 200 stations to around 100

stations.

3.2.1.10 SO2 exceedance situations

Since the limit values came into force from 2005, i.e. daily averages must not exceed 125 µg/m³

more than three times in a calendar year and hourly averages must not exceed 350 μg/m³ more

than 24 times in a calendar year, both daily and hourly averages have been complied with at all

stations in Germany. The declining trend of concentrations has also however led to a drop in the

number of stations subject to monitoring. The number of stations with SO2 concentration

monitoring in Germany has thus fallen in recent years from around 250 stations to around 150

stations.

3.2.2 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2015 – results of dispersion modelling

3.2.2.1 Methodology

The background concentrations of atmospheric pollutants in the ground-level air layer are

influenced considerably by meteorological variables. In order to assess the impact of emissions

from 2005 to 2015 on background concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, in addition to

assessment on the basis of the development of the measured concentrations of atmospheric

pollutants, two model runs were carried out using the chemistry transport model EURAD of the

Rheinland Institute for Environmental Research. Furthermore, this assessment should serve to

validate the results of the EURAD model runs to estimate the potential development of air

quality in the With Measures Scenario (WM) in Chapter 4.2 and in the NEC Compliance Scenario

(WAM) in Chapter 7.3.

The emission data for Germany are taken from

the emissions reporting 2018 for the years 2005 and 201539,

from outside Germany from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)40.

For both years 2005 and 2015, a meteorological data set from the year 2005 was used in order to

distinguish the impact of meteorological differences on the modelled background concentrations

between the two years. As a result, there are modelled concentration data sets for each grid cell

in hourly resolution for one year per model run. From the results of these two model runs,

conclusions can be drawn concerning the impact of emissions development on air quality,

without concealing the meteorological consequences of the effects of emissions developments.

The results are assessed using difference maps of the absolute annual average in µg/m³ per grid

cell. The maps show spatially differentiated effects of emissions developments. In Chapter

3.2.2.7, the differences, averaged across all the cells, of the annual average of ground-level

concentrations per pollutant are shown. The results allow an estimation of how significant the

impact of future emission reductions might be on the improvement of air quality.

39 http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/un/clrtap/inventories/envwoflug/; retrieved on 08/04/2018 40 http://drdsi.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/tno-macc-iii-european-anthropogenic-emissions; retrieved on 08/04/2018

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3.2.2.2 Modelled background NO2 concentrations

The reduction of overall NOX emissions between 2005 and 2016, mainly due to a reduction of

NOX emissions by heavy-duty vehicles on the roads, results in a reduction of modelled NOX

background concentrations, without taking into account inter-annual differences of

meteorological influencing factors, primarily along the motorway network and in conurbations

with high traffic volume. This conclusion is confirmed by the development of NO2 values at

stations close to industry and in urban and rural backgrounds during the same time period.

Image 23: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for NO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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3.2.2.3 Modelled background SO2 concentrations

The reduction of overall SO2 emissions between 2005 and 2016, mainly due to a reduction of

emissions by large combustion plants and private households, also results in a reduction of

modelled SO2 background concentrations, without taking into account inter-annual differences

of meteorological influencing factors, primarily in urban conurbations with high absolute

populations and high population density, and in industrial conurbations. This conclusion also

matches the development of SO2 values at stations close to industry and traffic stations and in

the urban background. Highly concentrated differences are notable between 2015 and 2005,

which are due to the addition or the removal of plants from the Pollutant Release and Transfer

Register (PRTR).

Image 24: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for SO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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3.2.2.4 Modelled background NH3 concentrations

The modelled ammonia concentrations hardly changed between 2005 and 2015. The increase in

emissions in the time period considered is reflected primarily at individual points in Saxony-

Anhalt and Lower Saxony with a high density of intensive livestock farms and a large amount of

farm manure. This is explained firstly by the short life of ammonia in the atmosphere, which

leads to high modelled concentrations close to perennially large point sources of intensive

livestock farming, and secondly by a lack of detailed information on a national level about the

spatial distribution of ammonia emissions, for example about area-specific or at least farm-

specific quantities of fertiliser used, about manure transport or amounts of mineral fertilisers

purchased for use at German ports.

Image 25: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for NH3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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3.2.2.5 Modelled background PM2.5 concentrations

When linking emissions development to the development of particulate matter concentrations in

the ambient air, it must be noted that particulate matter, both directly emitted and also

secondary in the atmosphere, is formed from precursor substances and can be transported over

large distances to the place of pollution. As fundamentally all pollutants regulated by the NEC

Directive contribute to particulate matter pollution in the air in this way, the reduction in

modelled particulate matter concentrations (cf. Image 26 for the PM2.5 fraction) is not due solely

to the emissions development of one atmospheric pollutant. As emissions of pollutants regulated

by the NEC Directive have however fallen, with the exception of ammonia, a near-universal

reduction of modelled particulate matter concentrations is also to be noted.

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Image 26: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for PM2.5 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

3.2.2.6 Modelled background O3 concentrations

Ozone is formed almost exclusively of emissions of precursor gases. Therefore, the majority of

reactions contributing to ozone formation or to ozone depletion lead to a complex linking of the

development of precursor emissions to the measured or modelled concentrations. The

comparison of average modelled concentrations in 2015 and 2005 reiterates the picture created

by the measurement results: Episodes with very high concentrations of ozone are rare (cf. Image

28), but the average ground-level ozone concentration increases across Germany if

meteorological influences are excluded from consideration (cf. Image 27). This increase is also

based on Europe-wide developments and global trends of emissions of precursor gases and is

not due solely to emissions development in Germany.

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Image 27: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for O3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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Image 28: Result of the EURAD-model runs 2005 and 2015 for the number of days of exceedance of the O3 target under the same meteorological conditions

3.2.2.7 Summary of results of dispersion modelling

Table 20 shows the average difference of annual averages per grid cell of the modelled hourly

concentrations of selected pollutants for 2005 and 2015. For both years, the emissions data is

based on the emissions reporting 2018. Due to the decreasing (with the exception of ammonia)

emissions, the modelled background concentrations for NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 are also falling.

The modelled concentrations for ammonia increase in accordance with the slightly increased

emissions for the time period. The development of ozone concentrations cannot be explained

solely by emissions development in Germany, due to the complex ozone chemistry in the lowest

layer of the atmosphere and the solar radiation necessary for ozone formation. For assessment,

global emissions development and selected meteorological episodes must be considered. Similar

to the moderate reduction in emissions in the period under consideration (other than NH3),

background concentrations of NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 also fall only slightly, while by contrast

emissions of NH3 and O3 increase. If, in addition to the future emission reduction measures to

comply with national emission reduction commitments in the NEC Directive, no local emission

reduction measures are also taken to improve air quality, the exceedance situation of NO2

concentrations measured close to traffic will only slowly improve in future.

Table 20: Difference in modelled annual average of background concentrations under the same meteorological conditions for 2005 and 2015

Pollutant absolute difference of annual averages 2005 and 2015 in µg/m³

NO2 -2.8

Ozone +1.8

NH3 +0.9

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SO2 -1.3

PM10 -2.7

PM2.5 -2.6

3.3 Assessment of the development of cross-border transport of atmospheric pollutants from and to Germany

In order to draw conclusions from the available model runs described in Chapter 3.2.2.1 without

the need for additional calculations, the material flows have been determined up to 3 000 metres

in height between the grid cells of the model areas within German borders and the adjoining grid

cells of neighbouring states for atmospheric pollutants PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NH3 and NO2, and for

each neighbouring state, a corresponding total of the input and output per modelled year has

been generated for the entire common border. The development of this input and output from

2005 to 2015 illustrates the impact of emissions development on cross-border flows according

to meteorological conditions in the year 2005. The cross-border transport of atmospheric

pollutants is influenced to a particular extent by the meteorological framework conditions. In

order to consider the sole influence of altered emissions, calculations are made using for

example unchanged meteorology from the year 2005.

On the basis of the results, Germany’s neighbouring countries have been grouped according to

countries across whose borders there is a net import of pollutants into Germany and countries

across whose borders there is a net export of pollutants from Germany. In 2005 and 2015, there

were net exports of pollutants to Denmark, Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic. In 2005 and

2015, there were net imports from France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

Regarding Switzerland, in 2005 and 2015 there was a net export of NO2 and SO2, and, by

contrast, a net import of NH3, PM10 and PM2.5.

Overall, the cross-border transport (export) from Germany has fallen for all pollutants other

than for NH3 in 2015 in comparison to 2005 in the model runs. The cross-border transport to

Germany (import) from neighbouring countries has fallen for all pollutants investigated, other

than for NH3, in 2015 in comparison to 2005.

Overall, across all neighbouring countries bordering Germany, both in the model run for 2005

and that for 2015, the export from Germany of all atmospheric pollutants investigated slightly

outweighs the import from neighbouring countries. The net export from Germany to

neighbouring countries increased slightly for all atmospheric pollutants investigated, other than

for NO2.

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4 Projected further evolution assuming no change to strategies and measures already adopted

4.1 Emission projection to 2030 and assessment of emission reduction in comparison to 2005 in the With Measures Scenario (WM)

4.1.1 With Measures Scenario (WM)

4.1.1.1 Development in rates of activity - general

The projection of NOX, NMVOC, SO2, NH3 and PM2.5 emissions in the With Measures Scenario

(WM) was for the majority of the time series based on the projected development of the activity

rates in the With Measures Scenario (WM) of the Projection Report of the Federal Government

2017 (PR 2017). The extensive data has been taken from the related research project

commissioned by the Federal Environment Agency “Improving the methodological base and

designing a greenhouse gas emissions scenario as basis for the Projection Report 2017 as part of

the EU greenhouse gas monitoring (Policy scenarios VIII)"(PCN 3716411050). This scenario

comprises all climate protection measures adopted up to 31 July 2016. In the source groups

transport, agriculture and solvent application (see Chapter 4.1.1.2), different activity rate

projections are used and thus different key dates are set.

As some of the activity rates from this scenario are only available in aggregated form for source

group areas or for example energy sources, disaggregation had to take place on the time series

system transferred from ZSE into the EMMa database. If no further information was available,

the projected rate of activity was allocated to the corresponding time series on the basis of the

inventoried distribution from the year 2016 according to the emissions reporting 2018 for the

years 2020, 2025 and 2030. Therefore, on the basis of this assumption, possible shifts within a

group of emitters, for example from one technology to another lower-emissions technology, or

vice-versa, cannot be illustrated.

The Projection Report 2017 contains the assumptions included in Table 21 about the

development of activity rates in the With Measures Scenario, with the overall trend being

apparent particularly from separate trend projections for primary and final energy consumption

and gross electricity production. The further assumptions of the With Measures scenario are

described in detail in the projection report.

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Table 21: Selected trend projections for primary energy consumption, final energy consumption and gross electricity consumption for the year 2030 in the With Measures Scenario of the PR 2017 in comparison to the year 2014.

2014 2030

Primary energy consumption 13 227 PJ 11 226 PJ

of which: lignite 1 580 PJ 1 078 PJ

Final energy consumption 8 753 PJ 8 144 PJ

of which: lignite 87 PJ 55 PJ

Gross electricity production 626.6 TWh 601.6 TWh

of which: lignite 155.8 TWh 111.4 TWh

of which: hard coal 118.6 TWh 97.8 TWh

of which: nuclear energy 97.1 TWh 0 TWh

of which: natural gas 61.1 TWh 76.8 TWh

Gross electricity production 591.0 TWh 550.9 TWh

of which: industry 228.8 TWh 206.8 TWh

of which: commerce, trade and services 142.8 TWh 139.1 TWh

of which: residential 129.7 TWh 116.8 TWh

of which: energy sector (own power consumption

power plants, line losses, etc.)

81.1 TWh 63.3 TWh

The largest contributions to future reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in WMS in the

Projection Report 2017, which also impact upon emissions of atmospheric pollutants, are

provided by the measures (PR 2017, p.33):

a) lignite - standby mode

b) carbon trading;

c) market incentive programmes for renewable energy in the construction sector,

d) KfW programme for energy-efficient construction and renovation,

e) energy savings regulation,

f) energy consultancy for medium - sized companies.

In the research project ‘NEC Directive: Further development of projections for atmospheric

pollutants for National Air Pollution Control Programmes’ (PCN 3716512020), the effect of these

measures was taken into account for the development of activity rates. The project assumes that

the emission factors are not influenced by these measures.

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4.1.1.2 Further trend projections - air pollution control

In the transport sector (NFR 1.A.3, cf. Annex A) the use of activity rate projections from the PR

2017 has been abandoned and the updated trend scenarios from the TREMOD Version 5.72

(UBA, 2017) as of November 2017 used instead. The use of an updated TREMOD trend

projections in comparison to PR 2017 was necessary so as to incorporate the updates to exhaust

emission factors of diesel cars from the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport [HBEFA]

Version 3.3.

In relation to development in road transport mileage and development in rail transport services,

inland waterway shipping and air transport, the TREMOD trend projection is based on the

transport volume structure of the transport integration forecast 2030 from the Federal Ministry

for Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMWI), which is also the basis of the PB 2017. The

TREMOD trend projection assumes that in the period up to 2030, diesel and petroleum will

remain the dominant sources of drive power. Alternatives (including natural gas, liquid gas)

represent only a small proportion; electric vehicles are slowly becoming more popular. The fleet

composition projection for road transport is based in TREMOD on a shifting model which takes

into account the annual new certifications and the expected operational life of vehicles in

Germany.

The development of specific emissions of atmospheric pollutants is based for road transport on

the current emissions legislation. For diesel cars, the new pollutant classes Euro 6d-Temp and

Euro 6d are taken into consideration. The evolution of energy efficiency for cars and light-duty

vehicles is in principle based on Regulations (EC) No 443/200941 and (EU) No 333/201442. In

addition, further assumptions have been made in order to illustrate the discrepancy between the

New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) and real consumption.

Future developments in the road transport services which form the basis of the With-Measures

Scenario of the PR 2017 are fully covered by the developments considered in the TREMOD trend

projection. There are no further measures to be taken into account for the With-Measures

Scenario, as future emissions legislation (Euro 6d-Temp and 6d for diesel cars) are also already

included in the TREMOD trend projection along with current energy efficiency developments.

There is also a TREMOD trend projection for other transport. For rail, inland waterway shipping

and air transport and mobile machines, account has been taken of developments in energy

efficiency and in specific emissions factors, which respectively take into account current

emissions legislation. As some of the projections were not specific to a time series, the related

trends were applied to the associated disaggregated time series in EMMa.

In the field of agriculture, the amended Fertiliser Ordinance, in force since 2 June 2017, includes

relevant regulations regarding emissions of atmospheric pollutants, in particular of ammonia

(NH3). The projection4344 is influenced significantly by the following assumptions (Thu nen

Report 56, 2018, p.18):

41 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32009R0443&from=DE; retrieved on

20/09/2018 42 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32014R0333&from=EN; retrieved on

20/09/2018 43 Offermann, F., Banse, M., Freund, F., Haß, M., Kreins, P., Laquai, V., Osterburg, B., Pelikan, J., Ro semann, C., Salamon, P.

(2018): Thu nen baseline 2017 – 2027: Agricultural economics projections for Germany. Braunschweig: Johann

Heinrich von Thu nen Institute, 116 pages, Thu nen Report 56.

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a) ‘The inclusion of digestate of vegetable origin in the output limit of 170 kg of nitrogen from

organic fertilisers per hectare and per year on average for agricultural areas used on a farm,

b) the assumption that there will be no extension of the exemptions to the upper limit of 170 kg

nitrogen per hectare from organic fertilisers,

c) fertilising with urea only with addition of urease inhibitors,

d) the requirement to use improved spreading technology for liquid agricultural fertilisers

(strip-till system/ direct application into the soil on arable land from 1 February 2020, on

permanent pasture or multi-shear forage cropping from 1 February 2025),

e) the extension of embargoes on spreading fertilisers on arable land and pasture,

f) the evidence required from 2020 of storage capacity of at least nine months for farms with

more than three livestock units per hectare,

g) the tightening of guidelines concerning nutrient comparison with plausibility check on forage

yields

h) and reduction in control value to 50 kg N/ha and 10 kg P2O5/ha.“

Almost 54 kt reduction potential up to the year 2027 in comparison to the average from the

years 2014 and 2016 is thus available through reduced ammonia emissions from spreading of

agricultural fertiliser, by means of low-emission spreading on vegetated areas and through

assumed reduction in fermentation residue. The mandatory addition of urease inhibitors when

using ureas is assessed to have a further reduction potential of around 32 kt (Thu nen Report 56,

2018, p. 48).

In addition, the reduction effects of the national and European regulations legally adopted up to

1 September 2017 in the field of air pollution control have been anticipated in the With

Measures Scenario (WM), the effect of which is not yet or not yet fully illustrated by the

Emissions Inventory 2018, which consequently still have potential for future emissions

reductions. In the project ‘NEC Directive: Further development of projections for atmospheric

pollutants for National Air Pollution Control programmes’ (PCN 3716512020) has evaluated the

reduction effect of the following measures:

a) further emission reduction through development of existing systems at combustion

plants taking into account the requirements under

o Ordinance on large combustion plants, gas turbines and combustion

engines of 2 May 2013 (13th Federal Emissions Control Regulation

(BImSchV)

o Change of 13th BImSchV of 19th December 2017 on the national

implementation of the Commission Implementing Decision on

conclusions on the Best Available Techniques in relation to the refining of

mineral oil and gas and in relation to the manufacturing of cellulose,

paper and cardboard

o Ordinance on Incinerated and Co-incinerated Waste of 2 May 2013 (17th

BImSchV)

44 The regularly updated projection of future activity rates and the influence of the Fertiliser Ordinance on emissions

from spreading fertiliser have been calculated by the Johann Heinrich von Thu nen Institute in its baseline projection

2017-2027 with the status of adoption as at March 2017, and made available to the Federal Environment Agency for

the years 2020 and 2027 in the EMMa system.

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o Ordinance on Small and Medium-sized Combustion Plants of 26 January

2010 (1st BImSchV)

b) Best Available Technique (BAT) - Conclusions of the Annex of the Implementing Decision

(EU) 2017/1442 of 31 July 2017 [LCP BREFs]

c) Directive (EU) 2015/2193 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25

November 2015 on the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from

medium combustion plants (MCP Directive)

d) Directive 2009/125/EC of 21 October 2009 establishing a framework for the stipulating

of ecodesign requirements for energy-related products (ecodesign directive); and

Regulation (EU) 2015/1189 of 28 April 2015 with regard to stipulating ecodesign

requirements for solid fuel boilers

For plants within the scope of application of the 13th and 17th BImSchV it has been assumed

that the limits established in the regulations from 2020 have been complied with in full.

Tightening these limits has been assumed in the With Measures Scenario (WM) only in cases in

which the upper end of the relative permissible range of emission levels in the yearly average

from the BAT conclusions of the Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 is lower than the

provisions of the Federal Emissions Control Regulation currently in force.

For combustion plants with a thermal input of at least 1 MW and less than 50 MW, irrespective of

the kind of fuel used, the requirements of Directive (EU) 2015/2193 (MCP Directive) have been

assessed in the With Measures Scenario, insofar as they go beyond existing German law.

In the With Measures Scenario (WM), the development of the state of technology in industrial

plants is illustrated. As the draft bill for the new version of the First General Administrative

Regulation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Technical instructions on Air Quality Control -

TA Luft) of 16 July 201845 will, according to current estimates, not lead to any additional

reduction, this new version of the TA Luft for the industrial plants sector is already included in

the With Measures Scenario (WM).

Plants with a nominal heat output between 4 kW and 1 MW (for oil and gas combustion facilities,

between 4 kW and 20 MW), which do not require approval under Section 4 of the Federal

Emissions Control Regulation, are regulated in Germany by the 1st BImSchV. All plants between

1 MW and 20 MW now fall within the scope of the MCP Directive, as of 25 November 2015. For

some plants in the smaller than 1 MW range, the Directive 2009/125/EC and associated

Implementing Regulations mean requirements have changed. Experts estimate that the

requirements of the Ecodesign Directive significantly exceed the requirements of the 1st

BImSchV in only one case: solid fuel boilers, governed by Regulation (EU) 2015/1189, are

subject to a less demanding limit under EU law, which has been taken into account in the With

Measures Scenario (WM). In addition, the scopes of application of the two regulations differ. The

Ecodesign Directive 2009/125/EC sets emission limits for solid fuel boilers in the range from 0

to 500 kW. The 1st BImSchV applies to solid fuel furnaces with a thermal input of up to 1 MW.

For solid fuel boilers under 4 kW, basic requirements for technical design are set, but no

emission limits are prescribed. Solid fuel boilers between 0 and 4 kW are thus governed by the

Ecodesign Regulation regarding emission limits from 2020. Plants between 500 kW and 1 MW

are still governed by the 1st BImSchV.

45 https://www.bmu.de/gesetz/entwurf-zur-neufassung-der-ersten-allgemeinen-verwaltungsvorschrift-zum-bundes-

immissionsschutzgeset/; retrieved on 20 September 2018

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4.1.2 Emission projection to 2030 in the With Measures Scenario (WM)

The results of the With Measures Scenario (WM) for the projected emissions of nitrogen oxides

(as NO2), sulphur compounds (as SO2), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC),

ammonia (NH3) and particulate matter with particle fraction < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) in 2020, 2025 and

2030 and the comparison thereof with the percentage reduction commitments of the NEC

Directive in relation to 2005 are illustrated in Table 23 to Table 27, separated by aggregated

source group. In each case, it is indicated in colour in the lower part of the table whether the

reduction commitment for the pollutant concerned has been met (green) or has not been met

(red) in the forecast year.

The following rules must be noted in relation to compliance with reduction commitments:

The reductions and the level of the reduction commitment for NOX and NMVOC are

calculated in accordance with Article 4(3) of Directive (EU) 2016/2284 without

emissions from the source group agriculture.

The reduction commitments from 2020 apply in accordance with Article 5(1) of Directive

(EU) 2016/2284 as having been set on 4 May 2012. The EMEP/EEA air pollutant

emission inventory guidebook - 2009 recommended in 2012 has neither the emission

source ‘storage and spreading of fermentation residues’ nor associated emission factors.

It is therefore possible to seek a corresponding adjustment for these emissions to verify

compliance with the NH3 reduction commitment from the NEC Directive from 2020.

As regards verification of compliance with the reduction commitment in 2020 in comparison

with 2005, these NH3 emissions are therefore derived both from the emission projections of the

With Measures Scenario for 2020 and also from the emissions in the base year 2005.

In 2020, the projection in the With Measures Scenario (WM) thus showed compliance with all

reduction commitments for all atmospheric pollutants subject to reduction under the NEC

Directive. In 2030, the reduction commitment in the With Measures Scenario (WM) is met only

for NMVOC. The indicative interim targets, which are not mandatory in the same way and which,

according to Article 4(2) of Directive (EU) 2016/2284, follow a linear reduction path between

2020 and 2030, are not met for emissions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia.

Table 22 lists which source groups already contribute to significant emission reductions in the

With Measures Scenario (WM).

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Table 22: Source groups with significant emission reductions in the With Measures Scenario

Pollutant Source groups with significant emissions reduction

Nitrogen oxide 73 % proportion of the total reduction in WM in comparison to

2005

NFR 1.A.3 – road transport

Sulphur compounds 51 % proportion of the total reduction in WM in comparison to

2005

NFR 1.A.1 – Energy industries

27 % proportion of the total reduction in WM in comparison to

2005

NFR 1.A.4 – Other combustion plants

Ammonia 64 % proportion of the total reduction in WM in comparison to

2005

NFR 3.D – Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading)

non-methane

volatile organic

compounds


2005

NFR 2.D – Industrial processes - use of non-energy

products


2005

NFR 1.A.3.b – road transport

primary PM2.5 49 % proportion of the total reduction in WM in comparison to

2005

NFR 1.A.3 – Transport


2005

NFR 1.A.4 – Other combustion plants

Accordingly, gaps in meeting requirements from 2030 become apparent, which must be closed

by further measures.

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Table 23: Emission projection for NOX (as NO2) in the With Measures Scenario (WM)

Source groups (aggregated)

NOX (as NO2)

2005 Projection

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1. Energy 1 353.0 791.5 637.5 516.3

A. Fuel combustion activities 1 351.9 790.5 636.4 515.2

1 Energy industries 289.1 260.8 256.5 219.5

2 Manufacturing industries 103.3 73.0 65.5 60.2

3 Transport 806.5 352.5 224.6 157.7

of which: road transport 738.1 302.6 179.2 117.6

4 Other combustion plants 142.0 99.7 85.7 74.1

of which: commerce, trade, services 34.6 27.2 23 522.7 20.6

of which: residential 67.2 49.6 44.5 41.1

5 Military and other minor sources 11.0 4.5 4.0 3.7

B. Fugitive emissions from fuels 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1

1 Solid fuels 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

2 Oil and gas 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

2 Industrial processes 106.3 87.5 86.4 84.0

A. Mineral Products 44.8 31.4 31.2 30.6

B. Chemical industry 29.6 29.8 29.6 28.9

C. Production of metal 27.9 22.2 21.6 20.5

D. Use of non-energy products 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6

G. Other production manufacturing and use 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

H. Other production (cellulose and paper manufacture, foodstuffs and beverages)

2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0

I. Wood-processing industry

L. Handling of bulk materials

3 Agriculture 118.0 128.1 128.3 128.3

B. Manure management (stabling and storage) 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0

D. Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading) 115.8 126.0 126.2 126.2

I. Storage of fermentation residues from energy plants 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

5 Waste and wastewater treatment 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6

B. Biowaste treatment

C. Waste incineration 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6

D. Wastewater treatment

E. Other areas

National total of source groups for which reporting is obligatory 1577 1008 853 729

Evaluation

NOX (as NO2) without NFR 3

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

With Measures Scenario (WM) Total kt 1459 882 726 603

NEC Directive Reduction Commitment % -39 % -52 % -65 %

Projected reduction in WM scenario % -40 % -50 % -59 %

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Table 24: Emission projection for NMVOC in the With Measures Scenario (WM)


NMVOCs

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1. Energy 361.1 221.6 203.9 188.9

A. Combustion of fossil fuels 274.8 148.4 130.7 115.6



3 Transport 177.7 74.6 63.2 53.3



of which: commerce, trade, services 4.5 2.7 2.0 1.6




1 Solid fuels 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4

2 Oil and gas 83.3 69.8 69.8 69.8








16.3 18.5 18.5 18.5

I. Wood-processing industry 5.9 4.1 4.1 4.1

3 Agriculture 203.1 206.7 204.6 202.5


D – Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading) 9.2 10.8 10.8 10.9



D. Wastewater treatment 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1


Evaluation

NMVOC without NFR 3

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030


NEC Directive Reduction Commitment % -13% -21% -28%

Projected reduction in WM scenario % -28% -30% -30%

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Table 25: Emissions projection for SO2 in the With Measures Scenario (WM)


SOX (as SO2)

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1 Energy 381.3 220.2 178.7 153.1




3 Transport 13.2 1.8 1.8 1.7







1 Solid fuels 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

2 Oil and gas 2.9 2.1 2.1 2.1








0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6




Evaluation

SOx (as SO2)

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030




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Table 26: Emissions projection for NH3 in the With Measures Scenario (WM)


NH3

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1 Energy 28.0 15.3 13.9 12.6




3 Transport 21.6 10.7 9.9 9.1











3 Agriculture 580.7 582.3 544.9 541.6





B. Biowaste treatment 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.5


Evaluation

NH3

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030


Total without emissions from plant-based fermentation residues kt 614 560



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Table 27: Emissions projection for PM2.5 in the With Measures Scenario (WM)


PM2.5

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1 Energy 93.2 55.2 49.6 44.9


1 Energy industry 10.7 8.0 7.9 6.7


3 Transport 46.2 22.0 20.4 19.8







1 Solid fuels 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

2 Oil and gas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


A. Mineral products 5.5 4.3 4.3 4.2






0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2


L. Handling of bulk materials 10.2 9.5 9.5 9.5

3 Agriculture 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5





E. Other areas 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7


Evaluation

PM2.5

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030




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Table 28: Emissions projections in the With Measures Scenario (WM)

Emissions in the base year 2005 2005

NOX SO2 NMVOCs NH3 PM2.5

Emissions reporting for 2018 kt 1577 473 1324 625 135

Without 3B and 3D kt 1459 1121

without emissions from plant-based fermentation residues

kt 614

Reduction commitments of NEC Directive in comparison to 2005

2020


39 % 21 % 13 % 5 % 26 %

With Measures Scenario (WM) % 40 % 36 % 28 % 2 % 33 %

kt 882 301 803 614 91

Correction of plant-based fermentation residues

% 9 %

kt 560


2025


52 % 39.5% 20.5 % 17% 34.5%


kt 726 259 787 575 85


2030


65 % 58 % 28 % 29% 43 %


kt 603 231 785 570 80

4.1.3 Description of the uncertainties linked to the emission projection in the With Measures Scenario (WM)

An estimation of the uncertainties of the emissions inventory for atmospheric pollutants is

included in the Chapter “Uncertainties” in the informative inventory report in the emissions

reporting 201846 (IIR, 2018). The uncertainty estimation of the German emissions inventory for

atmospheric pollutants has until now followed only a Tier 1 approach pursuant to the IPCC47

(2006). The current estimations for uncertainty of the inventoried emissions total of NEC

pollutants is between 10 % and 27 %. In the next step, the uncertainties based on the With

Measures Scenario in the Projection Report of the Federal Government 2017 (PR 2017) are used

to update the activity rate development. Naturally, and confirmed by comparison of previous

projections with actual occurring developments, there are big uncertainties that become even

bigger the further the projected time period moves into the future. The dissection of the total

development of the With Measures Scenario in the PR (2017) into individual components and 46 https://iir-de.wikidot.com/general-uncertainty-evaluation; retrieved on 25/06/2018 47 IPCC, 2006 - Eggleston, S., Buendia L., Miwa K., Ngara T., and Tanabe K.,(Eds). 2006: IPCC Guidelines for National

Greenhouse Gas Inventories IPCC/IGES, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Hayama, Japan

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the influence thereof on the result of the projection is shown in Image 29. It is clear here that the

projected fall in energy intensity offsets the increasing GHG emissions through projected

economic growth and leads to a reduction in greenhouse gases overall. Emission projections for

atmospheric pollutants give rise to a similar conclusion. If the energy intensity does not fall as

illustrated, the increasing activity rates as a result of economic growth will find it difficult to

compensate through technical reduction measures.

In addition to this, there are uncertainties regarding the evaluation of future reduction potentials

of strategies and measures already adopted and considered in the With Measures Scenario (WM)

of the National Air Pollution Control Programme. The uncertainties of the projection of absolute

national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants in kilotonnes up to 2030 is thus naturally

very much dependent on the uncertainties of the greenhouse gas emissions projection.

Image 29: Component analysis for development of greenhouse gas emissions from energy use in the Projection Report of the Federal Government 2017 (PR 2017, p.272)

Source Target

Mio. t CO2e ggü. 2014 Millions of t CO2e in comparison to 2014

THG-Intensität (fossile Brennstoffe) GHG intensity (fossil fuels)

Fossiler Primärenergieanteil Fossil primary energy share

Energieintensität Energy intensity

BIP pro Kopf GDP per capita

Bevölkerung Population

Emissionsreduktion ges. Overall emission reduction

To further estimate the sensitivity of the emission projections to activity rate changes, the

measures of the With Measures Scenario have been calculated using both activity rate scenarios

from the Projection Report 2017. The results are set out in Table 29. Ammonia is not included in

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the table, as on the basis of the Thu nen baseline projection (Thu nen Report 56, 2018), in both

activity rate scenarios there are only very small differences in this regard.

Table 29: Emissions projections in the With Measures Scenario (WM) with different activity rate scenarios of the Projection Report 2017

WM projection with different activity rate scenarios NOX SO2 NMVOCs PM2.5

2020

With Measures Scenario (WM) based on reference projections for climate projection (PB 2017, WMS) kt 882 301 803 91

With Measures Scenario (WM) based on reference projections for climate projection (PB 2017, WFMS) kt 874 293 802 90

2025



2030



4.2 Description of the projected improvement in air quality in the With Measures Scenario (WM)

4.2.1 Modelled background NO2 concentrations

The clear drop in projected NOX emissions from road transport up to 2030 shows clearly in the

difference map of the absolute annual average of the background concentrations per grid cell in

comparison with 2005. In highly polluted, congested areas, a drop in the modelled background

pollution of up to 10 µg/m³ is has been recorded. An even steeper drop is to be expected across

Germany in the annual average measured for congested areas. This conclusion must however be

confirmed by small-scale hotspot modelling, taking into account further location-specific

assumptions.

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Image 30: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for NO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

4.2.2 Modelled background SO2 concentrations

The difference in the annual average per grid cell between 2005 and the background

concentrations modelled in the With Measures Scenario (WM) for 2030 reflects the principal

decline in emissions from large combustion plants larger than 50 MW and other combustion

plants smaller than 1 MW. This means reductions within close range of the source of 4 µg/m³

and in areas with corresponding population density to reductions between 1 and 2 µg/m³.

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Image 31: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for SO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

4.2.3 Modelled background NH3 concentrations

The low development of ammonia emissions between 2005 and 2030 in the With Measures

Scenario based on Thu nen baseline projection leads to only small modifications in the modelled

ammonia concentrations. The difference map of the modelled annual averages per grid cell

shows a corresponding image.

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Image 32: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for NH3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

4.2.4 Modelled background PM2.5 concentrations

The modelled PM2.5 background concentrations have seen a universal drop of 2 to 8 µg/m³

compared to 2005 in the annual average. On the basis of the high proportion of secondary

particulate matter from emissions from precursor substances, no conclusion can be drawn

spatially about the reduction of primary particulate matter sources. The reduction in modelled

background concentrations seems to be particularly high in densely populated areas.

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Image 33: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for PM2.5 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

4.2.5 Modelled background O3 concentrations

The difference from 2005 and the annual average of ozone concentrations modelled in the With

Measures Scenario (WM) for 2030 shows a clear increase in congested areas and conurbations

by up to 10 µg/m³. The number of days with high peak concentrations (see Image 35) has fallen,

however. The reduction in peak concentration can be traced back to a reduction in emissions of

ozone precursors, with the increase in the modelled annual average being due to the drop in NOX

emissions.

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Image 34: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for O3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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Image 35: Result of the EURAD-model runs 2005 and WM-2030 for the number of days of exceedance of the O3 target under the same meteorological conditions

4.2.6 Summary of results of dispersion modelling

Table 30 shows the average difference of annual averages per grid cell of the hourly background

concentrations of selected atmospheric pollutants modelled in the With Measures Scenario

(WM) for 2005 and 2030. For NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5, significant reductions are already

forecast in the scenario without further measures. For ozone annual averages, a marked increase

is forecast on average. The ammonia concentrations hardly change, as the projected ammonia

emissions also fall by only 9 % in comparison with 2005. Presumably, also due to the reduction

in other precursor emissions of secondary particulate matter build-up in several regions, there is

a reduced availability of binding partners and ammonia remains in the air for longer, meaning

that concentrations have not decreased in comparison to 2005.

Table 30: Difference of modelled annual average of background concentrations under the same meteorological conditions for 2005 and 2030 in the With Measures Scenario (WM)


NO2 -6.4

Ozone +4.7

NH3 +0.1

SO2 -1.2

PM10 -4.9

PM2.5 -5.1

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5 Options for strategies and measures for complying with emission reduction commitments from 2020 and from 2030 and indicative interim targets from 2025

5.1 Further options for action for climate protection

Measures relating to climate protection have an extensive impact on emissions of atmospheric

pollutants.

According to the German Energy Act and the monitoring report of the Federal Network Agency

and the Federal Cartel Office for 201748 (BNetzA, 2017) and the associated published data49, in

the years 2016 to 2019 respectively, by 1 October around 2.7 GW electric net nominal capacity

from lignite has been and is being converted into standby mode (cf. Table 31). Standby mode,

governed in the German Energy Act with effect from 30 July 2016 is already included in the WM

scenario.

Table 31: Lignite power stations transferred into standby mode up to 2020 (amended following BnetzA, 2017).

Year Blocks converted to standby mode Electrical net nominal capacity

2016 Buschhaus (MIBRAG) 352 MW

2017 Block P and Q in Frimmersdorf (RWE Power AG) 562 MW

2018 Block E and F in Niederaußem (RWE Power AG)

Block F in Ja nschwalde/Peitz (Vattenfall)

594 MW

465 MW

2019 Block E in Ja nschwalde/Peitz (Vattenfall)

lock C in Neurath/Grevenbroich (RWE Power AG)

465 MW

292 MW

In the With Further Measures Scenario (WFMS) of the Projection Report of the Federal

Government 2017 (PR 2017), further strategies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions and their impact upon the development of activity rates have been evaluated.

These measures have been essentially

taken from the interdepartmental ‘Action Programme for Climate Protection 2020’50 and

the ‘National Energy Efficiency Action Plan’51.

48 https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Allgemeines/Bundesnetzagentur/Publikationen/

Berichte/2017/Monitoringbericht_2017.pdf;jsessionid=CCF2757975CABD18FE839CC127DABAFD?__blob=publicati

onFile&v=4; retrieved on 14/08/2018 49 https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sachgebiete/Energie/Unternehmen_

Institutionen/Versorgungssicherheit/Erzeugungskapazitaeten/Kraftwerksliste/Veroeff_ZuUndRueckbau_2018_2.xls

x;jsessionid=FB889BE1764759EEBCFAF7152F498CDD?__blob=publicationFile&v=4; retrieved on 14/08/2018 50 https://www.bmu.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Aktionsprogramm_Klimaschutz/aktionsprogramm_

klimaschutz_2020_broschuere_bf.pdf; retrieved on 10/07/18

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Furthermore, the German cabinet adopted the Climate Protection Plan 205052 on 14 November

2016. It illustrates the route to making Germany a greenhouse-neutral zone in the year 2050.

Firstly, the plan divides the greenhouse gas reduction target of 55 % by the year 2030 into the

sectors energy industries, construction, transport, industry, and agriculture. The WFMS assesses

the development of installed power plant capacity

In comparison to the assumptions in the With Measures Scenario of the Projection Report 2017,

there are for example selected differences, represented in the following table and also relevant to

the emissions of NOX, SO2 and PM2.5.

Table 32: Differences in projected developments of primary energy consumption between WMS and WFMS in the Projection Report 2017 (PR 2017)

2014 2030

WMS

2030

WFMS

Primary energy consumption 13 227 PJ 11 226 PJ 10.666 PJ

of which: lignite 1 580 PJ 1 078 PJ 1 009 PJ

of which: hard coal 1 725 PJ 1 441 PJ 1 024 PJ

of which: mineral oil 4 561 PJ 3 940 PJ 3 773 PJ

The With Measures Scenario (WM) has thus been newly calculated in a next step with the

activity rates of the With Further Measures Scenario (WFMS) of the PR 2017 so as to assess the

reduction potentials for NOX, SO2 and PM2.5 which arise from the climate protection targets and

further climate protection measures considered in the WFMS.

In order for example to generate the further reduction assumed in the WFMS of the Projection

Report from 2020 to 2030 of primary energy consumption for producing electricity and heat

from lignite in large combustion plants pursuant to the 13th BImSchV, further power plants must

be transferred to standby mode, beyond the transfers which have already taken place. From the

perspective of complying with the NEC Directive, at least the development paths assessed in the

With Further Measures Scenarios of the Projection Report 2017 should be applied. Particularly

for the SO2 reduction commitment from 2030, a suitable reduction of coal-fired power

generation plays a decisive role. Displacement effects to other energy carriers, offsetting these

emission reductions, should be avoided here (e.g. displacement of power generation from lignite

to hard coal).

One of the reduction targets of the phase-out pathway adapted from greenhouse gas emissions

would make it possible in particular to meet the SO2 reduction commitments of the NEC

Directive without further measures in industrial process heat generation installations.

51 https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Publikationen/Energie/nationaler-aktionsplan-energieeffizienz-

nape.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=8; retrieved on 10/07/18 52 https://www.bmu.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Klimaschutz/klimaschutzplan_2050_bf.pdf; retrieved

on 17 August 2018

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The Commission set up by the German government in June 2018, “Wachstum, Strukturwandel

und Bescha ftigung (WSB)” (Growth, Structural Change and Employment) recommended in its

final report of 26 January 2019, inter alia, that power generation from coal in Germany should

end, if possible by 2035 and at the latest by 2038.

These recommendations relate to the installed capacity, not to the quantity of power produced

by individual plants and fuel inputs in the individual plants; the latest figures are in any case

necessary for preparing emission projections. In addition, there are several commission

recommendations which are yet to be adopted into legal regulations.

For these reasons, the accelerated phase-out recommended by the WSB Commission of coal-fired

electricity has not yet been considered in the current scenario. In the following chapters,

however, the emissions development resulting from an altered energy scenario with certain

assumptions is estimated.

The objective reaching scenario based on the recommendations of the WSB Commission ‘65 %

renewable energy and coal action’ has been drawn up by r2b energy consulting GmbH and was

made available to the Federal Environment Agency for preliminary assessment of potential

reduction of atmospheric emissions on 25 March 2019 by the Federal Ministry for Economic

Affairs and Energy.

Following adoption of the legal regulations in this regard currently being drafted, which is not to

be expected before the end of 2019, the emission reductions resulting therefrom and an updated

list of emission reduction measures has been updated accordingly.

5.2 Further options for action - NOX

In the assumption of an energy scenario which corresponds to the recommendations of the WSB

Commission, there would be in 2030 emission reductions of over 32 kilotonnes in addition to the

emission reductions which are linked to the WFMS reference projections. For this estimate,

different assumptions have been made in relation to the shutdown sequence, the efficiency rate

and emission values of the individual plants, the total electricity consumption in certain sectors,

the import-export balance of electricity production and the capacity expansion of low-emissions

renewable energy carriers (in particular wind and PV), which are subject to corresponding

uncertainties.

Furthermore, where there are differences with the projections made in this National Air

Pollution Control Programme, further measures are taken. These are represented where

necessary as part of the next revision of the National Air Pollution Control Programme.

For the source group of medium combustion plants, the implementation of the MCP Directive

(EU) 2015/219353 in German law is now almost complete54. However, as this took place after the

above-mentioned key date, these measures are assigned to the WAM scenario.

Significant emission reductions are therefore to be expected for medium natural gas and biogas

engines, and in medium combustion plants for solid biomass, other solid fuels and heavy fuel oil.

Thus it is to be assumed that corresponding conversion for natural gas and biogas engines and


02/07/2018 54 Adoption by the German government of a 44th BImSchV of 18/03/2019, expected to come into force from July

2019.

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for plants that use heavy fuel oil is completed by 2030. Regarding the use of solid biomass and

other solid fuels, it has been assumed that by 2030, 50 % of plants comply with the provisions of

the draft ordinance for new plants.

There is further reduction potential for NOX emissions in the field of road transport. In the With

Measures Scenario, a further, steeper decrease in NOX emissions is already anticipated.

Nevertheless, it seems appropriate, particularly in relation to NO2 pollution at monitoring

stations in congested areas, to make increased effort. Thus a combination of different measures

in road transport have been assessed for their effects on mileage and implicit emission factors. In

this combination of measures, possible actions as a consequence of the various diesel summits of

the German government and other measures already introduced in different policy areas are

assessed in relation to their effects on the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. In this way, there

is also impact on other atmospheric pollutants. The package of measures assessed for road

transport comprises the following assumptions:

Software update diesel cars (and light-duty vehicles) Euro 5/6 and environmental bonus

(repurchase of diesel cars Euro 4 and older).

Hardware retrofitting for diesel buses to reduce NOX emissions

Development and strengthening of the environmental alliance

Updating of NO2 limits. For cars, the proposal by the European Commission (average

reduction of CO2 emissions in the new car fleet of 30 % in 2030 in comparison to 2021),

which assumes a greater proportion of e-vehicles in 2030 than previously in the

TREMOD trend projection, is used as a basis for the calculations. For the calculation of

the WAM scenario, a proportion of e-vehicles of 15 % has been assumed from 2025.

Further measures which were not assessed as part of the road transport measures package are

measures for digitalisation of the transport systems and for electrification of road transport as

part of the ‘Emergency Programme for Cleaner Air 2017-2020’ and the measures included in the

‘Concept for cleaner air and the securing of individual mobility in our towns’ from 1 October

2018 for retrofitting hardware of communal vehicles and of delivery and trade vehicles.

The absolute emissions from the agricultural sector remain almost constant; the relative

proportion of total emissions thus increase. Agricultural NOx emissions are however not

compliance-relevant for the reduction commitments in the NEC Directive.

5.3 Further options for action - NMVOC

For the emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), the projections already

include the reduction commitments in the With Measures Scenario. Due to the high sensitivity of

the projection to economic input data, it can however quickly happen that further options for

action are requested in order to return to the predefined reduction path. Relevant reduction

measures are to be found mainly in the field of application of solvent-based products, due to its

proportion of the total emissions. Reduction options have been comprehensively evaluated in an

expert report commissioned by the Federal Environment Agency through the Institut fu r

O kologie und Politik GmbH (O KOPOL).

The assessment reveals an overall reduction potential of up to 90 kt by 2030 in comparison with

emissions in 2015 according to emissions reporting 2017. In principle, product-related

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measures governed by European law can be distinguished from plant-related measures which

can also be established nationally. On a European level, further product-related regulations are

less likely, according to expert views. There is further scope for reduction within the national

area of responsibility by limiting the solvent content of road marking paints to a maximum of

two percent by weight in public tenders for road painting. EU provisions in the plants sector are

currently expected exclusively through further BAT conclusions. Nationally, an amendment of the

31st BImSchV55 is possible, with reduction in threshold values on the basis of the already

existing monitoring deficiency being considered as critical and an extension to other plants only

seeming promising for digital printing, as this is used on a widespread basis for coding in larger,

already monitored package printing plants. The replacement of solvent-based paints and

lacquers by water-based paints and lacquers is however accompanied, according to expert

opinion, by a greater use of biocides, which ensure longer shelf life after opening.

The absolute emissions from the agricultural sector remain almost constant; the relative

proportion of total emissions thus increases. Agricultural NMVOC emissions are however not

compliance-relevant for the reduction commitments in the NEC Directive.

5.4 Further options for action - SO2

For emissions of relevant sulphur compounds (as SO2), the With Measures Scenario (WM) falls

short of the reduction commitment in the NEC Directive by almost 40 kt. This is reduced by

taking into account the further climate protection measures in the WFMS in the Projection

Report to almost 10 kt. To date, no specific air pollution control measures specifically for

reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions have been quantified.

The effects of implementation of climate protection targets through successive reduction of coal-

fired power generation should eliminate the shortfall in meeting the reduction commitment in

time. By adopting the recommendations of ‘Wachstum, Strukturwandel, Bescha ftigung’56

commission, the assumptions made on the basis of the previous chapter would produce an

additional reduction potential of over 34 kt. The emission reduction commitments for SO2 would

thus be reached.

An alternative reduction option, not expected to prove necessary in the event of clear reduction

of coal-fired power generation, is in the field of industrial production. Almost a quarter of the SO2

emissions forecast for 2030 is caused to a significant extent by sinter, glass, cement and steel

production. There is high reduction potential here in requiring a switch of fuels used to low-

sulphur fuels or more efficient technologies for waste gas cleaning.

There are also knock-on effects from the Ordinance on Large Combustion Plants, Gas Turbines

and Combustion Engines detailed in Chapter 5.2 (44th BImSchV).

55 31st Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on limiting emissions of

volatile organic compounds in the use of organic solvents in certain installations)(31st BImSchV 56 https://www.kommission-wsb.de/WSB/Navigation/DE/Home/home.html

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5.5 Further options for action - PM2.5

Retention of the requirements of the 1st BImSchV for solid fuel boilers which go beyond the

provisions of the EU Regulation (EU) 2015/118957 can make a contribution, according to current

activity rate projections and an underlying worst-case appraisal of the consequences of the EU

regulation in the With Measures Scenario (WM), of almost 3 kt to necessary additional reduction.

The combination of measures described in Chapter 5.2 in relation to road transport and the 44th

BImSchV can also contribute to the reduction of direct PM2.5 emissions.

A successive phasing out of coal-fired power generation for achieving climate protection targets

also makes a contribution to the reduction of direct PM2.5 emissions. The activity rate

development in the With Measures Scenario of the Projection Report 2017 creates an additional

reduction of almost 2 kt and thus leads in combination with the other options for action to

meeting the reduction commitment in the NEC Directive from 2030 for PM2.5.

Furthermore, in relation to the air quality targets and local pollution, incentives can also be put

in place for using low-emission fuels in private households. In relation to the strong link between

demand and price, an incentive effect can thus be achieved.

5.6 Further options for action - NH3

The ammonia emissions forecast in the With Measures Scenario do not comply with the

reduction commitment in the NEC Directive from 2030 and the linear reduction path to 2020. As

in the projections for both 2020 and also 2030, almost 95 % of ammonia emissions are

generated by the agriculture source group, short-term, medium-term and long-term reduction

measures are urgently necessary.

The package of measures represented here comprises individual measures interacting with one

another. For example, an emissions reduction in stabling and storage leads for example to

additional nitrogen being produced with agricultural fertilisers and thus can create additional

ammonia emissions on farmland and pasture. Such interaction is taken into account in the

calculation. The reduction potentials entered in the table are in each case the additional effect of

the measure under the assumption that all previously listed measures have already been

implemented. If a measure were to be adapted or erased, this would have an impact on the

predicted effect of the measures following in the table.

The basis of the calculations is the Thu nen Report 56 from 2018 with the agricultural economics

projections for Germany (Thu nen-Baseline 2017 – 2027).

The sum of the reduction contributions depends upon the nature of the implementation. It may

be that incentive measures are not sufficient. In order to achieve the contributions listed in the

table; (Sub-) legislative regulations may consequently be necessary.

57 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32015R1189&from=EN; retrieved on

02/07/2018.

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Table 33: Further options for action in the agriculture source group and their additional reduction potential in comparison with the With Measures Scenario (WM)

2005 2020 2025 2030

Total ammonia emissions according to emissions reporting for 2018

NH3 kt 625

* without emissions from plant-based fermentation residues

NH3 kt 614*

NEC Directive Reduction Commitment NH3 % -5 % -29 %

total ammonia emissions permissible (according to emissions reporting 2018)

NH3 kt 583* 513 444

WM projections for total ammonia emissions using the Thünen baseline projection (Thünen Report 56)

NH3 kt 560* 575 570

Remaining additional necessary reduction in comparison with baseline

NH3 kt -61 -126

Ammonia reduction measures

Further reduction potential in

comparison with baseline

kt

Baseline

Urea is incorporated within four hours or stabilised with urease inhibitors

DüV (2017) Already assessed at

the baseline

No use of wide-spreading devices for liquid agricultural fertilisers on cultivated farmland or pasture

Incorporation of poultry manure on uncultivated farmland within four hours

Package of further

options for action

No use of wide-spreading devices on uncultivated farmland

Law relating to fertiliser**or

incentive measures

-3 -6

Immediate incorporation (< 1 h) of liquid agricultural fertiliser on uncultivated farmland

-7 -6

Immediate incorporation (< 1 h) of solid agricultural fertiliser on uncultivated farmland

-5 -16

Non-covered outdoor storage for slurry/fermentation residues are covered at least with foil or comparable technology Non-legislative

emissions control

regulations (here: TA-Luft

draft, status: 16 July 2018) or

incentive measures

-4 -8

N-reduced animal feed with 20 % emissions reduction with reduced N-excretion in stabling subject to approval under BImSchG (G and V plants/ >lower BImSchV limit), pigs and poultry

-3 -16 70% emissions reduction in stabling subject to approval under BImSchG (G plants pigs and poultry without turkeys = upper BImSchV limit) e.g. through exhaust air purification

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further systematic measures (40% emissions reduction) in stabling subject to approval under BImSchG (V plants pigs and poultry = lower BImSchV limit)

Slurry neutralisation in stabling and storage

Slurry cooling

Downsizing of the slurry channel

Measures for rapid separation of urine and faeces in stables

Rubber inserts in running surfaces

Urease inhibitors in stables

Spreading of liquid agricultural fertiliser on cultivated farmland and pasture only with injections/incision technology or neutralisation by means of addition of acid


incentive measures

-16 -48

50 % of underfloor storage of slurry is replaced by outdoor storage at least with foil covering

Non-legislative regulation or

incentive measures

-1 -2

5 % reduction of N-excretion through optimised, N-adapted animal feed for cows

Non-legislative regulation or

incentive measures

-5 -9

System-integrated measures in stabling and storage for cows (from 100 cows, 25 % emissions reduction)

-4 -9

Reduction of overall balance surplus by 20 kg N/ha (reduction of deductible losses, reduction of use of synthetic N-fertilisers)


incentive measures

-12 -13

Reduction effect of the package of further options for action (**with

exemptions for small and micro-businesses) -60 -133

Additional options for

action

UAN N-fertiliser Application with urease inhibitor

Law relating to fertiliser, incentive measures

The package of further options for action leads to, under the given assumptions, the necessary

reduction in comparison with the With Measures Scenario up to the year 2030 of 126 kt. The

calculation of reduction potential in 2025 took place under different assumptions in relation to

the technical feasibility and proportionality of the individual measures, through which the

necessary reduction of around 60 kt can be achieved.

For the following reasons, it is necessary that the coordinated measures package provides a

buffer to the additional emission reduction necessary to reach the reduction commitment. In this

regard, possibilities for targeted promotion of emission-reducing measures should also be

tested.

Uncertainties of the Thu nen Baseline Projection

o Development of milk production

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o Development of application quantities of synthetic N-fertilisers

o Development of a proportion of urea-based fertilisers into synthetic N-fertilisers

o Displacement effects with agricultural fertiliser spreading through provisions of

amended fertiliser ordinance

o Development of the amount of plant-based fermentation residues

o Number of farms which receive exemptions from an agency determined by the

competent Federal State authority to low-emission spreading of liquid

agricultural fertilisers on cultivated farmland or pasture (Fertiliser Ordinance §6

Paragraph 3 Sentence 4 and 5)

o Exceedances of the incorporation deadlines for agricultural fertilisers on

uncultivated farmland of four hours due to the non-passability of the soil

resulting from unforeseeable weather events (Fertiliser Ordinance §6 Paragraph

1 Sentence 2).

Uncertainties regarding the proportion of farms which will have the best available

techniques under the current stipulations by 2030.

Predefined exemptions for agricultural small and micro-enterprises pursuant to

Annex III Part 2 Section C of the NEC Directive, specific to each measure, for farms

smaller than 50 livestock units and with less than 20 ha agricultural land.

Furthermore, in bringing together the options for action, consideration was given to effective

emission reduction along the processing chain, to synergies with climate protection objectives

and to a no-deterioration rule for N-entries into the soil in relation to the objectives for reducing

nitrate pollution.

The acidification of slurries and fermentation residues prior to application or in stables and

storage is currently being extensively discussed in Germany. The methods for acidification of

slurry already used in stables promise high reduction potential and are, according to the BAT

conclusion (EU) 2017/302, the Best Available Technique. An assessment process was carried out

pursuant to the criteria of the European Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) 2010/75/EU.

However, the legal implementation in Germany must be tested.

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5.7 Reduction potential of further options of action

Table 34: Further options for action for reaching reduction commitments and their additional reduction potentials in comparison with the With Measures Scenario (WM)

2025 2030

NOX SO2 NMVOCs NH3 PM2.5 NOX SO2 NMVOCs NH3 PM2.5

WM Scenario kt 726 259 787 575 85 603 231 785 570 80

Reduction potentials of further strategies and measures in the field of climate protection in accordance with PR 2017-WFMS and r2B scenario 65 % renewable energy and coal phase-out

With-Measures Scenario based on reference projections for climate protection (PR 2017, WFMS) kt -17.2 -17.8 -1.5 -1.1 -24.6 -26.6 -2.0 -1.6

WSB Commission recommendation according to r2B projection in the energy industries sector kt -24.7 -29.6 -0.7 -0.4 -1.3 -32.3 -34.8 -0.9 -0.5 -1.5

Reduction potentials of further options for action and measures under implementation relating to air pollution control policy (building on PR 2017-WFMS and r2B scenario 65 % renewable energy and coal phase-out)

Current version of 44th BImSchV kt -17.8 -0.2 -31.2 -0.2 -0.1

Maintenance of the 1st BImSchV kt -1.7 -1.3

Road transport measures package kt -11.3 -3.9 -0.1 -0.3 -7.2 -5.5 -0.2 -0.3

Agriculture measures package kt -60.1 -133.0

Fuel switching or waste gas cleaning in the field of industrial furnaces kt -8.6 -8.2

Amendment of 13th BImSchV for selected fuels other than coal kt -2.0 -2.1

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5.8 Further information for measures in the field of agriculture

Table 35: Additional information relating to measures from Annex III Part 2 of Directive (EU) 2016/2284 in the agricultural sector Table 2.6.4. of Implementing Decision (EU) 2018/1522

Measure included in the programme?

Are there deviations from the guidelines? If yes, which modifications have been carried out?

Measures for limiting NH3 emissions: The Member States set out good agricultural practice for reducing ammonia emissions from national recommendations for good agricultural practice from the year 2014, comprising at least the following points: a) nitrogen management, taking into account the whole nitrogen cycle; b) livestock feeding strategies; c) low-emission spreading of slurry; d) low-emission slurry storage; e) low-emission animal housing systems; f) possibilities of limiting ammonia emissions from using mineral fertilisers.

The updating of good specialist practice happens continually. The brochures for describing good specialist practice for reducing ammonia emissions from agriculture are currently being updated58.

The Member States prohibit the use of ammonium carbonate fertilisers

Currently not relevant in Germany

If necessary, adapting legislation

Preventing negative impact on agriculture small and micro-enterprises When carrying out the aforementioned measures, the Member States ensure that the impact on small and micro-enterprises is taken into account to its full extent. Member States may, for instance, exempt small and micro-enterprises from those measures where possible and appropriate in view of the applicable reduction commitments.

Chapter 5.6

58 Brochures under review.

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6 Strategies and measures (including timetable for adopting measures, implementation and success monitoring and competent agency)

6.1 Report on the strategies and measures selected for implementation (including competent agency)

All options for action included in Chapter 5 are necessary for achieving the reduction

commitments; only for NOx and SO2 is there a slight buffer. The implementation of measures

takes place generally by means of legislation on a federal level and enforcement on a regional

level. Overall, the measures forming part of existing household and financial planning principles

in the departments (including jobs and positions) are implemented subject to the availability of

the necessary budgetary resources.

6.2 Assessment of consistency with plans and programmes in other policy fields

The strategies and measures that have been selected in the National Air Pollution Control

Programme for achieving the reduction commitments of Directive (EU) 2016/2284 in some

cases have considerable synergy effects with other political fields.

There is a particularly high level of consistency with the policy field of climate change, as the

emission of atmospheric pollutants correlates in many cases with the emission of climate gases.

In the field of climate protection, the federal government is currently preparing the first

measures programme for implementing the climate protection plan 2050. A successive reduction

of coal-fired power generation will contribute both in the measure programme in climate

protection and also in the National Air Pollution Programme to the respective targets/reduction

commitments.

The assessments in this programme are based on the projections of the Projection Report 2017.

This is the most recently published official GHG projection of the German government. The

reference developments of GHG emissions in the draft of the integrated National Energy and

Climate Plan (NECP) are provisional. A corresponding draft of the NECP has been sent to the

European Commission. The final version of the NECP will be sent by the end of 2019.

It is to be assumed that for the final version of the NECP, an energy scenario is generated taking

into account the recommendations of the WSB Commission or any existing decision of the

German government for implementing these regulations. In the present report, consideration

has already been given to the impact of an energy scenario as an option for action which

quantifies the effect of an earlier phasing-out of coal-fired electricity on atmospheric pollutants

than that assumed in the WFMS in the Projection Report 2017.

Plans and programmes relating to agricultural policy also have a considerable impact on

emissions development, in particular ammonia emissions. The further development of the EU

Common Agricultural Policy and its implementation in Germany sets the framework conditions

for emissions themselves and also for the eligibility of emission reduction measures.

There are further synergies of selected measures in the National Air Pollution Control

Programme, in particular with plans and programmes in the fields of health, biodiversity, water,

nitrogen and sustainability. Examples are:

the national action programme for protection of bodies of water against pollution caused

by nitrates,

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the action programme for insect protection (under review),

the livestock strategy,

the farming strategy (under review),

the action programme for integrated nitrogen reduction (under review) and

the German sustainability strategy.

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7 Report on emission projection, development of air quality and on the impact on the environment in the NEC compliance scenario for meeting reduction commitments (WAM - With Additional Measures)

7.1 Emission projection to 2030 and assessment of emission reduction in comparison to 2005 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)

Tables 36ff. show the provisional results per pollutant in the With Measures Scenarios (WM) and

NEC compliance (WAM) for 2025 and 2030. Additionally, in the projection year 2020 the NEC

Compliance Scenario (WAM) has additional reductions in comparison with the With Measures

Scenario (WM), these are however not relevant for meeting the reduction commitment. In the

With Measures Scenario (WM), after 2020 there are shortfalls in meeting the reduction

commitments of the NEC Directive and the designated linear reduction path (cf. Article 4 of the

NEC Directive and § 3 of the 43rd BImSchV). In total, with the combination of activity rate

development according to the WFMS of the Projection Report 2017 (cf. Chapter 5.1) and the

options for action quantified in Chapters 5.2 to 5.6, the reduction commitments of the NEC

Directive are met in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM). The results are set out in colour

according to compliance with the reduction commitments. For the projection year 2025, the

results are represented in cursive.

The NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) comprises the following options for action.

a) Climate protection measures in the WFMS of the Projection Report 2017

b) Phasing out of power generation using hard coal and lignite in accordance with

recommendations from the “Growth, Structural Change, Employment” Commission.

c) National implementation of the MCP Directive (EU) 2015/2193 pursuant to the

Resolution of the German government of 18 March 2019, expected to come into force

from July 2019

d) Retention of the regulation for solid fuel boilers under the 1st BImSchV

e) Road transport measures package – environmental bonus and software update for cars,

hardware retrofitting for buses, promoting an environmental alliance, updating of CO2

limits for cars

f) Agriculture measures package (cf. Chapter 5.6)

g) If necessary, promote a switch of fuels used in industrial production to low-sulphur fuels

or more efficient technologies for waste gas cleaning

h) Only if urgently necessary to meet the reduction targets for NOX to 2030: Amendment of

13th BImSchV for selected fuels other than coal

It is generally assumed that all further measures will show reduction effects from 1 January

2025 at the latest and their implementation will accordingly be completed beforehand.

As already demonstrated in the previous chapters, the German government is currently

preparing a legislative procedure to govern the phasing out of power generation using hard coal

and lignite. Decisions regarding phasing-out are not expected before the end of the year 2019. As

the phase-out path will also have a considerable impact on the emissions of atmospheric

pollutants, the German government will take the phase-out path actually decided upon as a basis

when reviewing the National Air Pollution Control Programme.

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According the current status, the implementation of the WSB Commission recommendations

should have particular impact on the measures necessary to meet reduction commitments for

the atmospheric pollutants NOX and SO2.

Table 36: Projected emissions development in NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)

Reduction

commitments of NEC Directive in comparison

to 2005

2025 2030

NOX SO2 NMVOC

s NH3 PM2.5 NOX SO2 NMVOC

s NH3 PM2.5

52 % 39.5 % 20.5 % 17 % 34.5 % 65 % 58 % 28 % 29 % 43 %

WM Scenario % 50 % 45 % 30 % 8 % 37 % 59 % 51 % 30 % 9 % 41 %

kt 726 259 787 575 85 603 231 785 570 80

Reduction potentials of further strategies and measures in the field of climate protection in accordance with PR 2017-WFMS and r2B scenario 65 % renewable energy and coal phase-out

a) kt -17.2 -17.8 -1.5 -1.1 -24.6 -26.6 -2.0 -1.6

b) kt -24.7 -29.6 -0.7 -0.4 -1.3 -32.3 -34.8 -0.9 -0.5 -1.5

Reduction potentials of further options for action and measures under implementation relating to air pollution control policy (building on PR 2017-WFMS and r2B scenario 65 % renewable energy and coal phase-out)

c) kt -17.8 -0.2 -31.2 -0.2 -0.1

d) kt -1.7 -1.3

e) kt -11.3 -3.9 -0.1 -0.3 -7.2 -5.5 -0.2 -0.3

f) kt -60.1 -133.0

g) kt -8.6 -8.2

h) kt -2.0 -2.1

NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)

% 55 % 57 % 30 % 18 % 40 % 65 % 66 % 31 % 30 % 44 %

kt 653 202 781 514 81 506 161 776 436 75

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Table 37: Emissions projection for NOX (as NO2) in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)


NOX (as NO2)

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1 Energy 1 353.0 739.8 564.5 418.8

A. Fuel combustion activities 1 351.9 738.7 563.4 417.7



3 Transport 806.5 333.8 212.8 149.5







1 Solid fuels 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

2 Oil and gas 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4








2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0



3 Agriculture 118.0 128.1 128.3 128.3








E. Other areas


Total source groups for which reduction is obligatory 1459 830 653 506

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Table 38: Emissions projection for NMVOC in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)


NMVOCs

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1 Energy 361.1 218.1 197.9 180.6

A. Fuel combustion activities 274.8 144.8 124.6 107.3



3 Transport 177.7 72.5 59.3 47.8







1 Solid fuels 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4

2 Oil and gas 83.3 69.8 69.8 69.8








16.3 18.5 18.5 18.5



3 Agriculture 203.1 206.7 204.6 202.5



I. Storage of fermentation residues from energy plants




D. Wastewater treatment 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

E. Other areas

National total of source groups for which reporting is obligatory

1323 1,006 985 979

Total source groups for which reduction is obligatory 1121 799 781 776

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Table 39: Emissions projection for SO2 (as SO2) in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)


SOx (as SO2)

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1 Energy 381.3 184.5 131.1 91.5




3 Transport 13.2 1.8 1.7 1.6







1 Solid fuels 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

2 Oil and gas 2.9 2.1 2.1 2.1








0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6



3 Agriculture

B. Manure management (stabling and storage)

D. Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading)






E. Other areas

National total of source groups for which reporting and reduction are obligatory

473 265 202 161

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Table 40: Emissions projection for NH3 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)


NH3

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1 Energy 28.0 15.0 13.5 11.9




3 Transport 21.6 10.7 9.8 8.9







1 Solid fuels 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2 Oil and gas

2 Industrial Processes 13.7 12.5 12.5 12.4




D. Use of non-energy products





3 Agriculture 580.7 582.3 484.8 408.6





B. Biowaste treatment 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.5

C. Waste incineration


E. Other areas

National total of source groups for which reporting is obligatory

625 613 514 436

Total source groups for which reduction is obligatory (only for 2020)

614 560

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Table 41: Emissions projection for PM2.5 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)


PM2.5

2005 Application

2020 2025 2030

kt kt kt kt

1 Energy 93.2 53.3 45.1 40.2




3 Transport 46.2 21.7 20.2 19.5







1 Solid fuels 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

2 Oil and natural gas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0








0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2


L. Handling of bulk materials 10.2 9.5 9.5 9.5

3 Agriculture 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5








E. Other areas 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7

National total of source groups for which reporting and reduction are obligatory

135 89 81 75

7.2 Description of the uncertainties linked to the WAM projection

In order to estimate the sensitivity of the results illustrated in Chapter 5 and 7.1 in the NEC

Compliance Scenario (WAM) the following uncertainty reports have been carried out on the

impact of different energy scenarios on NOx emissions as an example.

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For provisional assessment of the recommendations of the “Growth, Structural Change,

Employment” Commission, the fuel inputs in the r2B-scenario of August 2018 ‘Objective

reaching scenario with 65 % renewable energy and coal action’ for the energy sector have been

used as a basis. The assumptions in the remaining source groups have been retained in

accordance with the WFMS of the Projection Report 2017.

The following uncertainties arise for quantification of emissions of atmospheric pollutants:

- Amount of total power required: There are uncertainties inter alia regarding power

required for the transport sector and power required for heat supply to buildings (heat

pumps in connection with new technologies) and personal need for power generation.

- Covering the power requirement from national and international sources (import-export

balance) / price development of energy carriers: Depending on the price development of

energy carriers, in the scenarios either higher electricity import or higher domestic

production coupled with higher exports are assumed. Which energy carriers are used to

generate energy in each case depends upon the level of projected emissions in Germany

and abroad. Additionally, should the actual overall power requirement increase over the

current projection, the market price is likewise the deciding factor regarding energy

carriers and capacities in Germany and abroad to be used to cover any shortfall in supply.

- Expansion of capacities in the field of low-emission renewables (wind, PV, water,

(geothermal energy)): Should the expansion of low-emission renewables not meet the

targets in place up to 2030, the above-mentioned uncertainties determine which energy

carriers will cover any gap in supply.

- Distribution of power generation among energy carriers in the different plant categories:

As currently the question remains open as to the sequence in which plants using hard

coal and lignite should be taken off the grid, a sequence different to assumptions may

arise due to decisive emissions factors of the plants or a change in emission reduction.

The assessable uncertainties according to the present data set are in accordance with the

aforementioned factors with a maximum (added up):

- Overall power requirement: ± 4 kt NOX in 2030

- Import-export balance: ± 3 kt NOX in 2030

- Proportion of renewables: ± 5 kt NOX in 2030

- Distribution of power generation per energy carrier in the different plant categories

(with different emissions factors): ± 7 kt NOX in 2030

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7.3 Description of the projected improvement in air quality in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)

Table 42 shows the average difference of annual averages per grid cell of the hourly background

concentrations of selected pollutants modelled on the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) for 2005

and 2030.

For NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5, and ozone, there are relatively small differences to the With

Measures Scenario. Reference is also therefore made for the evaluation of the map

representation to the explanatory text in Chapter 4.2. The ammonia concentration, in contrast to

the model results in the With Measures Scenario (WM), falls. The difference between the

difference maps in WM and WAM is thus clear in the case of ammonia. The drop is primarily due

to reduced emissions from keeping livestock and spreading agricultural fertiliser and thus is

more marked in regions with high numbers of livestock in north-west and south-east Germany

than in other regions. In the extreme south-west of Germany, a slight increase in the annual

average of ammonia concentrations is modelled, which is presumably due to the steeply

decreasing NOX emissions in this region and the therefore possibly limited binding partners for

secondary particulate matter build-up.

The current calculations do not allow conclusions to be drawn about the development of total

local NO2 pollution, as only background pollutants have been modelled and no small-scale

modelling has been carried out. For stations which in 2005 were more than 7 µg/m³ over the

annual limit for NO2 of 40 µg/m³, future compliance can only be estimated using high-resolution

hot-spot modelling, taking into account the impact of national measures on additional local

pollution and other specifically local developments, such as for example the predicted fleet mix

for a region.

Table 42: Difference of modelled annual average of background concentrations under the same meteorological conditions for 2005 and 2030 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)


NO2 -6.7

ozone +4.7

NH3 -0.8

SO2 -1.3

PM10 -5.4

PM2.5 -5.6

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Image 36: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for NO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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Image 37: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for SO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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Image 38: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for NH3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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Image 39: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for PM2.5 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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Image 40: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for O3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions

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Image 41: Result of the EURAD-model runs 2005 – WAM-2030 for the number of days of exceedance of the O3 target under the same meteorological conditions

7.4 Projected impact on the environment in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)

The modelled background deposition falls in the NEC Compliance Scenario in comparison to

2005 for all compounds investigated across the area average at an annual average between 20

and 66 %. The results must be validated with other model comparisons and are therefore to be

considered as provisional.

Table 43: Model results for dry and wet deposition in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) and difference in relation to 2005

2005

NEC Compliance Scenario

2030

Dry deposition Average deposition Absolute difference Relative difference

kg/(ha . a) kg/(ha . a) kg/(ha . a) %

NOX 1.2 0.4 -0.8 -66

SO2 1.3 0.7 -0.6 -49

NH3 2.6 1.9 -0.7 -25

Wet deposition

NO3 3.3 1.9 -1.4 -43

SO4 3.9 3.1 -0.8 -20

NH4 5.1 3.8 -1.3 -24

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8 References Federal Network Agency (2017): Monitoring Report 2017, Federal Network Agency Unit 603 and Federal Cartel Office

Energy Monitoring Working Group, 13.12.2017

DLG, 2018 – Osterburg, B., Rösemann, C., Fuß, R., Wulf, S. (2018): Reduction targets. Ammonia concerns us all. Cover story

Issue April 2018, DLG communications.

EU Guidance Document, 2018 - Zglobisz, N., Menadue, H., Williamson, T., Dore, C., Goodwin, J. (2018): Guidance on the

elaboration and implementation of the initial National Air Pollution Control Programmes under the new National Emissions

Ceilings Directive (2016/2284/EU), Service Request 10 under Framework Contract ‘Air quality and emissions: preparation for

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Annexes

A Annex - Emission sources according to Nomenclature for Reporting (NFR)

NFR Code Long name

1 Energy

1A Fuel combustion activities

1A1 Energy industries

1A1a Public electricity and heat production

1A1b Petroleum refining

1A1c Manufacture of solid fuels and other energy industries

1A2 Manufacturing industries

1A2a Stationary combustion in manufacturing industries and construction: Iron and steel

1A2b Stationary combustion in manufacturing industries and construction: Non-ferrous metals

1A2c Stationary combustion in manufacturing industries and construction: Chemicals

1A2d Stationary combustion in manufacturing industries and construction: Pulp, Paper and Print

1A2e Stationary combustion in manufacturing industries and construction: Food processing, beverages and tobacco

1A2f Stationary combustion in manufacturing industries and construction: Non-metallic minerals

1A2gvii Mobile Combustion in manufacturing industries and construction: (please specify in the IIR)

1A2gviii Stationary combustion in manufacturing industries and construction: Other (please specify in the IIR)

1A3 Transport

1A3ai(i) International Aviation LTO (civil)

1A3aii(i) Domestic aviation LTO (civil)

1A3bi Road transport: Passenger cars

1A3bii Road transport: Light duty vehicles

1A3biii Road transport: Heavy duty vehicles and buses

1A3biv Road transport: Mopeds & motorcycles

1A3bv Road transport: Gasoline evaporation

1A3bvi Road transport: Automobile tyre and brake wear

1A3bvii Road transport: Automobile road abrasion

1A3c Railways

1A3di(ii) International inland waterways

1A3dii National navigation (shipping)

1A3ei Pipeline transport

1A3eii Other (please specify in the IIR)

1A4 Other sectors

1A4ai Commercial/institutional: Stationary

1A4aii Commercial/institutional: Mobile

1A4bi Residential: Stationary

1A4bii Residential: Household and gardening (mobile)

1A4ci Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing: Stationary

1A4cii Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing: Off-road vehicles and other machinery

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1A4ciii Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing: National fishing

1A5 Military and other sources

1A5a Other stationary (including military)

1A5b Other, Mobile (including military, land based and recreational boats)

1B Fugitive emissions from fuels

1B1 Solid fuels

1B1a Fugitive emission from solid fuels: Coal mining and handling

1B1b Fugitive emission from solid fuels: Solid fuel transformation

1B1c Other fugitive emissions from solid fuels

1B2 Oil and natural gas

1B2ai Fugitive emissions oil: Exploration, production, transport

1B2aiv Fugitive emissions oil: Refining / storage

1B2av Distribution of oil products

1B2b Fugitive emissions from natural gas (exploration, production, processing, transmission, storage, distribution and other)

1B2c Venting and flaring (oil, gas, combined oil and gas)

1B2d Other fugitive emissions from energy production

2 Industrial processes

2A Mineral products

2A1 Cement production

2A2 Lime production

2A3 Glass production

2A5a Quarrying and mining of minerals other than coal

2A5b Construction and demolition

2A5c Storage, handling and transport of mineral products

2A6 Other mineral products (please specify in the IIR)

2B Chemical products

2B1 Ammonia production

2B2 Nitric acid production

2B3 Adipic acid production

2B5 Carbide production

2B6 Titanium dioxide production

2B7 Soda ash production

2B10a Chemical industry: Other (please specify in the IIR)

2B10b Storage, handling and transport of chemical products (please specify in the IIR)

2C Metal production

2C1 Iron and steel production

2C2 Ferroalloys production

2C3 Aluminium production

2C4 Magnesium production

2C5 Lead production

2C6 Zinc production

2C7a Copper production

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2C7b Nickel production

2C7c Other metal production (please specify in the IIR)

2C7d Storage, handling and transport of metal products (please specify in the IIR)

2D Use of non-energy products

2D3a Domestic solvent use including fungicides

2D3b Road paving with asphalt

2D3c Asphalt roofing

2D3d Coating applications

2D3e Degreasing

2D3f Dry cleaning

2D3g Chemical products

2D3h Printing

2D3i Other solvent use (please specify in the IIR)

2G Other product use (please specify in the IIR)

2H other production

2H1 Pulp and paper industry

2H2 Food and beverages industry

2H3 Other industrial processes (please specify in the IIR)

2I Wood processing

2J Production of POPs

2K Consumption of POPs and heavy metals (e.g. electrical and scientific equipment)

2L Other production, consumption, storage, transportation or handling of bulk products (please specify in the IIR)

3 Agriculture

3B Manure management (stabling and storage)

3B1a Manure management - Dairy cattle

3B1b Manure management - Non-dairy cattle

3B2 Manure management - Sheep

3B3 Manure management - Swine

3B4a Manure management - Buffalo

3B4d Manure management - Goats

3B4e Manure management - Horses

3B4f Manure management - Mules and asses

3B4gi Manure management - Laying hens

3B4gii Manure management - Broilers

3B4giii Manure management - Turkeys

3B4giv Manure management - Other poultry

3B4h Manure management - Other animals (please specify in IIR)

3D Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading)

3Da1 Inorganic N-fertilisers (includes also urea application)

3Da2a Animal manure applied to soils

3Da2b Sewage sludge applied to soils

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3Da2c Other organic fertilisers applied to soils (including compost)

3Da3 Urine and dung deposited by grazing animals

3Da4 Crop residues applied to soils

3Db Indirect emissions from managed soils

3Dc Farm-level agricultural operations including storage, handling and transport of agricultural products

3Dd Off-farm storage, handling and transport of bulk agricultural products

3De Cultivated crops

3Df Use of pesticides

3F Field burning of agricultural residues

3I Agriculture other (please specify in the IIR)

5 Waste and wastewater treatment

5A Biological treatment of waste - Solid waste disposal on land

5B Biological treatment of waste

5B1 Biological treatment of waste - Composting

5B2 Biological treatment of waste - Anaerobic digestion at biogas facilities

5C Waste incineration

5C1a Municipal waste incineration

5C1bi Industrial waste incineration

5C1bii Hazardous waste incineration

5C1biii Clinical waste incineration

5C1biv Sewage sludge incineration

5C1bv Cremation

5C1bvi Other waste incineration (please specify in the IIR)

5C2 Open burning of waste

5D Wastewater handling

5D1 Domestic wastewater handling

5D2 Industrial wastewater handling

5D3 Other wastewater handling

5E Other waste (please specify in IIR)

121

B Annexes– Emissions data relating to Chapter 3.1.1 NOX emissions in Germany 2005-2016 (in kt)

Source categories 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy industries 289.1 297.7 312.9 305.3 296.7 313.5 316.1 307.9 311.1 299.8 294.4 294.7

Manufacturing industries 103.3 104.1 104.5 104.5 97.6 104.0 102.9 92.2 88.7 88.3 88.7 88.2

Transport 806.5 785.9 726.2 648.8 597.9 582.2 566.2 552.0 548.4 531.3 505.3 486.2

Households and small consumers 142.0 145.7 124.9 138.9 133.5 144.2 131.7 134.8 135.8 123.3 126.9 129.4

Military 11.0 8.5 7.4 6.8 6.7 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.6

Fugitive emissions from fuels 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0

Industrial processes 106.3 107.0 109.5 100.7 84.1 91.2 92.5 89.7 88.9 89.1 86.9 85.9

Agriculture 118.0 118.1 112.2 121.2 112.5 114.3 124.6 120.2 122.9 125.0 131.0 126.4

Waste 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5

Total emissions 1 578 1 568 1 499 1 428 1 331 1 357 1 341 1 304 1 302 1 263 1 239 1 217

NOX emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany (in kt)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cars - petrol 138.1 119.0 104.9 83.9 72.8 61.9 56.3 48.5 44.4 41.4 37.1 35.1

Cars - diesel 139.3 143.6 148.2 148.7 153.4 158.9 172.6 179.6 195.8 211.2 210.3 213.7

Cars - other 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0

Light-duty vehicles 44.3 44.6 43.5 40.4 38.5 36.8 36.6 35.0 35.1 35.6 35.0 34.6

Heavy-duty vehicles (including buses) 412.6 410.0 361.2 307.4 267.9 261.3 236.3 228.3 213.6 184.2 167.3 143.9

Powered-two-wheelers (PTWs) 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8

Railway transport 20.6 18.7 18.0 17.4 15.4 15.4 15.9 13.3 12.9 11.6 11.9 10.9

Coastal and inland waterway shipping 32.1 29.7 30.6 30.0 29.1 27.6 28.3 28.3 28.4 29.9 26.4 30.2

Other mobile sources 4.3 4.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.4

Domestic air transport 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.8 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.1 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.5

Transport overall 806 786 726 649 598 582 566 552 548 531 505 486

122

NMVOC emissions in Germany 2005-2016 (in kt)




Transport 177.7 172.9 154.9 136.2 126.9 117.9 114.0 106.2 103.7 102.5 96.9 96.5


Military 3.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8



Agriculture 203.1 199.3 200.1 204.1 204.5 201.2 200.7 204.1 208.7 210.3 207.0 204.1

Waste 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Total emissions 1 323 1 335 1 270 1 212 1 115 1 230 1 145 1 119 1 105 1 029 1 039 1 052


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cars - petrol 102.4 90.9 83.4 73.2 68.1 62.6 60.5 55.7 54.3 53.6 50.5 50.2

Cars - diesel 8.4 7.9 7.5 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.5




NMVOC from evaporated fuels 11.8 20.3 17.9 14.5 13.7 13.0 12.9 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.2 12.4

other 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3


123

NH3 emissions in Germany 2005-2016 (in kt)




Transport 21.6 20.4 19.4 18.1 17.0 15.5 15.0 13.7 13.1 12.8 11.9 12.0


Military 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Animal husbandry (stabling and storage) 269.4 265.7 268.8 269.0 269.8 263.2 263.6 267.6 268.9 270.8 267.0 264.5

Spreading manure including pasturage 310.1 313.5 315.4 321.6 335.1 322.2 351.7 337.3 352.6 353.0 366.6 361.4

Agriculture - other 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3

Waste 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5

Total emissions 625 626 628 633 646 626 656 643 660 662 670 663

SO2 emissions in Germany 2005-2016 (in kt)




Transport 13.2 8.7 9.1 8.9 7.3 5.3 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 1.7 1.9


Military 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1



Waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total emissions 473 474 458 454 398 411 401 382 374 359 364 356

124

PM2.5 emissions in Germany 2005-2016 (in kt)




Transport 46.2 43.2 40.9 37.3 33.5 31.6 30.5 29.1 27.9 27.2 25.6 25.0


Military 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2



Agriculture 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6

Waste 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7

Total emissions 135 131 126 120 114 121 116 110 109 104 103 101

PM2.5 emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany (in kt)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cars - petrol 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

Cars - diesel 10.5 9.3 8.4 7.2 6.3 5.6 5.1 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.0

Cars - diesel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Railway transport 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.4

Coastal and inland waterway shipping 5.2 3.6 3.7 3.5 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.2

Other mobile sources 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Domestic air transport 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Emissions from tyre and brake abrasion 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.4

Emissions from road wear 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1


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