National Adaptation Strategy to Address Climate Change Tourism Sector in Barbados Synthesis of the...

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NATIONAL ADAPTATION STRATEGY

TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE TOURISM SECTOR IN BARBADOS

SYNTHESIS OF THE TECHNICAL REPORTS

Prepared for the

Caribbean Community Climate Change CentreBelmopan, Belize

by theCentre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies

University of the West Indies

Cave Hill Campus, Barbados

February 2009


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TechnicalReport5C/MACC02092

Copyright2009byCaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre

PublishedbyCaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre,Belmopan,Belize

DigitalEdition(November2010)

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profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided

acknowledgement

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is

made.

The

Caribbean

Community

Climate

Change

Centre

(CCCCC)wouldappreciateacopyofanypublicationthatusesthisreportasasource.

CaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre,RingRoad,P.O.Box563,Belmopan,Belize

Visitourwebsiteathttp://www.caribbeanclimate.bz

ISBN139789768236258(pdf)


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The views and opinions expressed in this report

are those of the Authors and do not necessarilyrepresent the views and opinions of theGovernment of Barbados, the CaribbeanCommunity Climate Change Centre or the World

Bank.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.........................................................................................................................

2 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................

2.1 REQUIREMENTSOF THETERMSOFREFERENCE..........................................................................................2.2 PREPARATION OF THESYNTHESISREPORT................................................................................................

3 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN BARBADOS............................................

3.1 THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF THETOURISM INDUSTRY INBARBADOS.......................................................3.2 ECONOMICVULNERABILITY OF THETOURISM INDUSTRY TOCLIMATECHANGE................................................

MYTHOLOGY(METHODOLOGY?) ANDRATIONAL.......................................................................................................RESULTS............................................................................................................................................................

4 CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES AND THREATS TO TOURISM IN BARBADOS.............................................

4.1 CLIMATECHANGEIMPACTSONCOASTALTOURISMSEALEVELRISE..........................................................

4.1.1 THE DELCAN STUDY: THE WATER LEVELS FOR BARBADOS......................................................4.1.2 THE CPACC STUDY - COASTAL VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT..................................

4.1.3 IADB STUDY: INTERMEDIATE RISK ASSESSMENT OF ST. PETER TOWNSHIP............................

4.2 CLIMATECHANGEIMPACTSONWATERRESOURCES..................................................................................4.3 CLIMATECHANGEIMPACTSONFOODPRODUCTION...................................................................................

4.4 CLIMATECHANGEIMPACTSON THELANDSCAPE........................................................................................4.5 CLIMATECHANGEIMPACTSONHEALTH(DISEASES) ...............................................................................

4.6 IMPACTSOFFLOODSANDDROUGHTS.....................................................................................................4.7 INDIRECTIMPACTS...............................................................................................................................

5 REVIEW OF EXISTING ENABLING (POLICY, LEGISLATIVE AND INSTITUTIONAL) FRAMEWORKS.......

5.1 POLICYREVIEW...................................................................................................................................

5.2 INSTITUTIONALREVIEW........................................................................................................................5.3 LEGISLATIVEREVIEW............................................................................................................................

6 RECOMMENDED STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS..........................................................................................

6.1 COMPLY WITH EXISTING PLANNING REGULATIONS& POLICIES......................................................................

6.2 MAINSTREAM NEW INFORMATION AND TECHNOLOGIES.............................................................................6.3 INITIATE THE COLLECTION OF DATA FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING............................................................

6.4 COORDINATE THETOURISM STRATEGY AND INDUSTRY SPECIFIC ADAPTATION PLANSWITH THEREGIONALCOMPREDISASTERMANAGEMENT(CDM)STRATEGY. ..........................................................................................................

6.5 CROSSCUTTINGAREAS........................................................................................................................6.5.1 Political.......................................................................................................................................6.5.2 Policy..........................................................................................................................................

6.5.3 Legislation..................................................................................................................................6.5.4 Institutional ...............................................................................................................................

6.5.5 Funding......................................................................................................................................6.5.6 Research...................................................................................................................................


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6.5.7 Human resource development..................................................................................................

6.5.8 Public awareness and outreach................................................................................................6.6 AGENCY LEVEL ACTIONS........................................................................................................................

Figures

Fig. 1: Relationship between Growth in Tourism Value-Added and Total Real GDPExpansion (Barbados)

Fig. 2: % Share of Total Employment (1976)Fig. 3: % Share of Total Employment (2006)

Fig. 4: Tourism as a Percentage of Exports (Barbados)Fig. 5: Relationship between Growth in Travel Receipts and the Current Account

Balance (Barbados)Fig. 6: Schematic Representation of Supply-side Simulation Model

Fig. 7: Impact of Climate Change on Barbados TCI

Fig. 8: Impact of Climate Change on the US TCI (JFK International Airport)Fig. 9: Impact of Climate Change on the UKs TCI (London, Heathrow Airports)

Fig. 10: Impact of Climate Change on Spains TCI (Getafe)Fig. 11: Impact of Climate Change on Mauritius TCI (Rodrigues)

Fig. 12: Monthly RainfallFig. 13: Schematic Representation of a Simplified Water Balance Scheme

Fig. 14: Total Projected Water Demand (m3)Fig. 15: Water Balance with no Climate Change (m3)

Fig. 16: Water Balance for all Cases (m3)Fig. 17: An Analysis of Demand for Water 2010, 2030, 2050

Fig. 18: The Barbados Tourism Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change

Impacts

TablesTable 1: Hurricane Strength Normalised Damage Estimates for the Caribbean

Table 2: Hurricane Strength and Potential Infrastructural Damage

Table 3: Potential Impact on Hotel Plant of Various Land Loss ScenariosTable 4: Potential Impact of Increased Hurricane Activity on Hotel Plant (2071-

2100)

Table 5: Potential Impact of Increased Hurricane Activity on Hotel Plant (2071-2100)Table 6: Scenarios for Future Sea Level Rise in Barbados Amount of Relative Sea

Level Change (mm) by Year (A.D.)Table 7: Land Loss at Specific Sites on Barbados Coast

Table 8: Summary of the Policy Recommendations related to Vulnerability(Climate Change)


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Table 9: A Summary of the Recommendations for the Legal framework related to

Vulnerability (Climate Change)

BoxesBox 1: Emissions Scenarios for Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Water

Resources.Box 2: Impact of Temperature Rise


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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARYMost Caribbean countries have embraced tourism as one of the key planks of theirdevelopment strategy. The main motivations behind this approach relate to the advantages

the industry provides relative to other exports of goods and services: (1) it allows thedestination to obtain economic benefits from characteristics that normally could not be traded

(natural and cultural attractions); (2) locally produced goods can be sold at a premium tovisitors, and; (3) goods that could not be exported due to insufficient export capability can be

sold to tourists.

The Barbados tourism product is diverse. However, tourist demand for natural coastalattractions and amenities (beaches, coral reefs, water sports, swimming, snorkelling,

sunbathing etc.) and the historical concentration of tourism infrastructure in a narrow strip

adjacent to the coast, confirms the coastal character of Barbados tourism product. Theimpacts of climate change will give rise to a range of direct and indirect impacts that will affect

the quality of the natural and built tourism product (supply) and the choices that tourists willmake in choosing or not choosing to holiday in Barbados (demand).

In order to better understand the implications of climate change for tourism in the Caribbean

and the options for addressing these projected climate change impacts, the CaribbeanCommunity Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) commissioned the preparation of a National

Tourism Sector Adaptation Strategy to Address Climate Change in Barbados. The TourismSector Adaptation Strategy focused on three critical areas producing four technical reports:

The climate change impacts to which Barbados is likely to be exposed, specifically:o The impact of sea level rise on the coastal elements of Barbados tourism

product ando changing precipitation and consumption patterns on the available potable water

supply on which the tourism industry and the population of Barbados depend

The economic implications of climate change for the Barbados tourism industry. The status and configuration of the existing enabling environment (institutional, legal,

and policy) and its ability to support and facilitate climate change adaptation planning

and action in the tourism industry.

This Synthesis Report brings together the information from four technical studies, eachdesigned to identify and characterise an aspect of the climate change induced vulnerabilities to

which the Barbados tourism industry may be exposed. The technical reports highlight theclimate change induced impacts that will have the greatest affect on the Barbados tourism

product.


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The findings of the reports indicate that the greatest threats to the Barbados tourism industry

from climate change are posed by sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns leading tosevere water shortages.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment

The results of the three coastal vulnerability studies: Delcan (1994), CPACC (2001), and IADB

(2007) corroborate each other in characterising the extent of the threat to tourism, humansettlement, and national infrastructure. The independent findings of the economic vulnerability

study provide further corroboration of the projected impacts of sea-level rise. The main findingsof the technical studies were:

DELCAN (1994)

The results indicated that during the 100 year hurricane, 70% of the beaches could besubjected to inundation, 10% to occasional overtopping and 20% will be dry. During the

50 year hurricane, 59% of the reaches could be subjected to inundation, 19% tooccasional overtopping and 22% will be dry. These results were verified, in a qualitative

manner, using historical observations of flooding and shoreline damage.

On most of the south coast, extensive flooding was predicted up to and inland of themain highway. Atlantic Shores, St Lawrence, Cacrabank (now Coral Mist) and most ofHastings Rock are all located on high cliffs and therefore escape severe flooding. The

area around Graeme Hall was predicted to be extensively flooded, to 1 km inland.

A zone of flooding, approximately 150 m wide was predicted through Carlisle Bay andparts of Bridgetown.

On the west coast, the flood zone was up to 300 m wide near Brandons, the southernpart of Holetown, and Speightstown to Heywoods. Other areas that were predicted tohave flooding up to 150 m inland included Fitts Village, Paynes Bay, Goddings and

Mullins.

CPACC (2001)

For all three sea level rise scenarios extensive flooding was predicted up to and inland ofthe main highway for most of the south coast. The findings for the coastal areas with

respect to inundation were the same, and for the larger scenarios, greater than those ofthe Delcan Study. Due to the very wide beach and offshore bathymetry at Sandy Lane,

the inundation limits for all three scenarios were seaward of the coastal road. Criticalinfrastructure affected included the Bayview Hospital, Government Headquarters, the

Barbados Light and Power Limited, most of the major hotels and a number of the fireand police stations located on the coast.


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IADB (2007)

Low-lying linear settlements are located in close proximity and parallel to the coast. A number of heritage properties in the mapped hazard zone of Speightstown that are in

good condition.

A fishing village at Six Mens Bay at the north end of this stretch.

New major high value resort properties constructed within the storm surge zone. Over 300 structures and 1,000 persons potentially at risk. 13% of the population at risk are over age 65 years of age. The impact of a 150 year event is estimated to be between US$7million and 20 million.

Water Resources Assessment

In the case of the Eastern Caribbean under all three climatic scenarios examined (A1B,A2 and B2), the projections are for a substantially drier wet season (July-November), aneven drier dry season (March-April) and a marginally wetter spell at the end of the year.

Economic Assessment

Supply-side impacts

The results suggest that the greatest supply-side impact of climate will be due to sealevel rises. There is a relatively high risk of damage to a significant proportion of the

hotel plant due to land loss. These effects could also be exacerbated by the effects ofstorm surges. In addition, those hotels that are not directly affected could be indirectly

affected through higher premiums.

Demand Side Impacts

The analysis of the likely changes in the Tourism Comfort Index (TCI) for Barbados aswell as two of its major source markets suggest that the demand for travel to the islandcould decline owing to the changes in climatic patterns.

While the specific forecast for various scenarios differ somewhat, in general theprojections are quite similar: by the end of the 21st century a deterioration in Barbados

TCI combined with an improvement in the TCIs of our main source markets is likely toreduce monthly tourist arrivals by between 24 and 40 percent. This suggests that the

tourism industry could be about a third of the size than it is at present. The traditionaltourist season is likely to be hardest hit, as these months could become relatively less

attractive to visitors. The reduction in the size of the tourism industry is likely to havemultiplier effects on the entire economy due to the relative importance of the industry

to the Barbadian economy. As a result, policymakers in Barbados will need to developalternative industries to offset the declining returns from the tourism industry.


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Recommendations

The recommendations from the four technical reports were captured under four umbrella

recommendations.1. Comply with existing planning regulations and policies to reduce vulnerability to current

hydro-meteorological extremes, and in the process strengthen the enablingenvironment to serve as the platform for climate change adaptation.

2. Initiate the collection of data for climate change modeling. With the exception of theIADB study, which was limited to a small area of Barbados coast, Barbados coastal

vulnerability data is more than a decade old. There is a pressing need to augment the

existing data that was used in the Delcan (1994), CPACC (2001) and IADB (2007) coastalvulnerability studies with data from new and improved models, projections and surveys.

Technology for collecting survey data and modeling future climate scenarios isadvancing rapidly, providing more accurate data for planning and decision making.

3. Mainstream new information and technologies in support of climate change adaptationplanning into the national and sectoral planning and policy processes. The new data and

information must be formally incorporated into the national and sectoral planning anddecision making processes.

4. Coordinate the National Adaptation Strategy for the Tourism Sector and industryspecific adaptation plans with the Regional Comprehensive Disaster Management

(CDM) Strategy. The regionally endorsed CDM Strategy provides a logical frameworkwithin which climate change adaptation can be promoted and mainstreamed at the

regional, national and local levels through the Tourism Sub-committee. The value of thisapproach lies in the fact that disaster risk reduction is the pragmatic, conceptual and

operational entry point through which to engage stakeholders in the Caribbean.


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2 INTRODUCTION2.1 Requirements of the Terms of ReferenceThe consultants were required to undertake 5 specific tasks according to the Terms ofReference. These were:

1. An economic review and analysis of the current status of the tourism sector.2. A comparative review and assessment of the institutions, organizations and resources at

the national level to complement the assessment done in the pilot VulnerabilityCapacity Assessment (VCA).

3. A technical review of climate change issues and threats facing the tourism sector inBarbados with special reference to the vulnerability and adaptation assessments and

studies conducted and the predicted adverse effects of climate change.

4. An assessment of the current policy framework and future requirements to fully complywith implementation of the strategic climate change options through nationalmechanisms in Barbados.

5. Engage key stakeholders to buy in to the strategy development through socialization.The successful completion of these tasks was expected to result in the following outputs and

deliverables:1. An economic sector review2. An institutional review3. Analysis of climate change issues and threats4. A policy assessment and options5. Presentation of a draft report to a national workshop6. A final report, including a plan of action

The final strategy paper is required, among other things, to identify priorities and outline a planof action. This includes recommendations on costs, capacity building measures,

recommendations on policy, legislation and other interventions and identification of sources offunding among others to support the strategy.

The consultants were also required to facilitate a consultative workshop with stakeholders

where findings, conclusions and recommendations were to be presented and comments andviews recorded for inputs into final report and strategy.

This report is a synthesis of the outputs 1 to 5, and represents output number 6.


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2.2 Preparation of the Synthesis ReportThis Synthesis Report brings together the information from four related but separate technical

studies, each designed to identify and characterise an aspect of the climate change inducedvulnerabilit ies to which the Barbados tourism industry may be exposed. The technical reports

highlight the climate change induced impacts that will have the greatest affect on Barbadostourism product, sea-level rise and water scarcity. The severity of the impacts that will result

from climate change induced sea-level rise and water scarcity provide the basis and thejustif ication for the focus of the economic assessment. Climate change will alter the prevailing

hydro-meteorological and oceanographic conditions from those with which the tourismindustry and its patrons are familiar and able to cope, to new conditions. These unfamiliar

conditions will include extreme hydro-meteorological and oceanographic events (e.g.hurricanes, storm surges, flooding, droughts, temperature extremes) which will damage

tourism infrastructure and change the characteristics of the tourism product, and hence thedesirability of the product in the estimation of its consumers (tourists). These impacts and

transformations will have measurable socio-economic consequences for the tourism industryand Barbados.

The probable negative climate change impacts and resulting transformations in the tourismproduct can be anticipated, estimated, and quantified to guide and assist in the development of

measures to prepare for, and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on the tourismindustry. This process is called adaptation1. For adaptation to be effective and sustainable the

impacts of climate change must be assessed and addressed within an enabling environment ofsupportive institutional arrangements, polices, legislation, incentives, and disincentives.

The studies that were undertaken focused on three critical areas; The climate change impacts to which Barbados is likely to be exposed, specifically:

o The impact of sea level rise on the coastal elements of Barbados tourismproduct and

o changing precipitation and consumption patterns on the available potable watersupply on which the tourism industry and the population of Barbados depend

1Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or, their effects whichmoderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory,

autonomous and planned adaptation:

Anticipatory adaptation Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed.

Autonomous adaptation Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by

ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems.

Planned adaptation Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have

changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state.


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The economic implications of climate change for the Barbados tourism industry. The status and configuration of the existing enabling environment (institutional, legal,

and policy) and its ability to support and facilitate climate change adaptation planningand action in the tourism industry.

The focus on the coastal elements of the Barbados tourism product and water resources reflect

that fact that (a) the tourism product is substantially coastal in character and location despiteattempts to diversify the product, and (b) the evidence indicates that availability of potable

water will be the most significant controlling influence on the viability of the industry.


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3 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN BARBADOS3.1 The economic importance of the Tourism Industry in BarbadosMost Caribbean countries have embraced tourism as one of t he key planks of theirdevelopment strategy. The main motivations behind this approach relate to the advantages

the industry provides relative to other exports of goods and services: (1) it allows thedestination to obtain economic benefits from characteristics that normally could not be traded

(natural and cultural attractions); (2) locally produced goods can be sold at a premium tovisitors, and; (3) goods that could not be exported due to insufficient export capability can be

sold to tourists (Mihalic, 2002). As a result of these characteristics, the industry accounts forone-third of all trade, a quarter of foreign exchange receipts and one-fifth of total employment

in the Caribbean (de Albuquerque and McElroy, 1995). Numerous authors have also attributed

most of the regions growth to the industry (see for example Latimer, 1985; Modeste, 1995).

Tourism in Barbados dates back to colonial times when wealthy British citizens would visit the

island on holiday, but it was not present on a large scale until the late 1950s and early 1960s.Currently, the sector is supported by a number of public as well as private national

organisations, including the Ministry of Tourism, the Barbados Tourism Authority (BTA), theBarbados Tourism Investment Inc. (BTI), the Tourism Advisory Council, the Needhams Point

Development Inc. and the Barbados Conference Services Ltd. in the public sector and theBarbados Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA) and the Tourism Development Corporation in

the private sector. These organisations span both the public and private sectors and have

developed over the years to address specific needs associated with furthering the evolution ofthe sector. According to the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO), a regional tourismorganisation, these institutions budgeted US$22.1 million in 2006 to promote the country in

various regions across the world.

In the early years of its existence as an independent nation, Barbados was primarily an

agriculture-based economy, with some input from the manufacturing sector. By the 1970s,however, the decline of agriculture, mainly due to the decline in the sugar industry, forced the

government to develop alternative sources of value-added. Due to the advantage that thecountry already had in this area, as a result of the pre-existence of loyal British tourists and the

physical landscape, the promotion of the tourism industry was a natural choice. As a result, thetourism industry averaged double-digit growth during the 1970s and contributed more than

12% of real GDP. By the end of 2007, tourism value-added accounted for 15.5% of real GDP,surpassing both manufacturing and agriculture, both of which had declined considerably during

those three decades (from 12.3% to 6.6% and from 10.7% to 5.4%, respectively). Furthermore,as shown pictorially in Fig. 1, downturns in tourism activity tended to lead to downturns in total

value added, indicating the countrys strong reliance on the sector.


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This strong expansion over the period 1977-2007 the growth in the sector (2.7%) surpassed that of GDP by 0.9 percentage points

led to increasing employment in the sector. Available employment statistics on the tourism industry on its own only date back to1991, but even with this short t ime span, the importance of the sector can still be seen (see Figs. 2 and 3). On average during the

period 1991-2006, the tourism sector was amongst the top five employers in Barbados and, by the end of the period, employedmore persons than the manufacturing sector, the third largest employer at the end of the seventies.

Figure 1 Relationship between Growth in Tourism Value-Added

and Total Real GDP Expansion (Barbados)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

%

Tourism Total Real GDP


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Figure 2 % Share of Total Employment (1976) Figure 3 % Share of Total Employment (2006)

With respect to wages, growth in salaries in the tourism sector outpaced that of agriculture and manufacturing over the period forwhich statistics are available (1970 to 1994), and even surpassed total wage growth for the entire economy.

As the tourism industrys contribution to GDP grew, so too did its importance within the balance of payments of Barbados. As shown

in Fig. 4, between 1971 and 2006, tourism earnings (represented by net travel credits) accounted for 65.4% of total export earnings.In fact, tourism has grown from earning roughly 50% of total exports in the 1970s, to 55% in the 1980s and 73% in the 1990s. Only in

the last few years has tourisms share of exports started to decline somewhat, leading to an average of 67.9% between 2000 and

2006.

Agriculture

10%

Other

11%

Manufacturing

15%

Construction

9% Government

36%

Commerce and

Tourism

19%

Miscellaneous

Sevices

25%

Government

21%

Commerce

13%

Construction

11%

Tourism

10%

Other

20%


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Figure 4 Tourism as a Percentage of Exports (Barbados)

Given the importance of the tourism industry, downturns in the sector tend to have a severe

negative impact on the current account balance (a relationship depicted in Fig. 5). The shadedparts of the figure show clearly that when the tourism industry does not fare well in a given

year, especially in the 1980s, there is a corresponding deterioration of the external currentaccount balance. Prior to 1980, the current account was driven primarily by agricultural

exports, while from the late 1990s onwards surging retained imports have outweighed anypositive contribution from the tourism industry.

Figure 5 Relationship between Growth in Travel Receipts and

the Current Account Balance (Barbados)

-800

-600

-400

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0

200

400

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

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$ '000

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-100

10

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50

60

%

Current Account Balance Tourism

0

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80

100

1971

1973

1975

1977

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1981

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1985

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%

Tourism


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The ability of policymakers to diversify the economy away from sugar, has allowed Barbados to

achieve an enviable level of development. Per capita income in Barbados at the end of 2006was US$9850 or about US$5180 above the average for other Small Island Developing States

(SIDS) and US$4575 more than the average for the rest of the Caribbean. These economicachievements have been leveraged to finance and ensure a fairly high level of social

development. In the most recent United Nations Human Development Report, the nation wasranked 31st in the world, one of the highest for any SIDS included in the index (UNDP, 2007).

Given the importance of the tourism industry to the future growth and development of

Barbados, it is important to monitor and evaluate potential risks to the industry. One potentialrisk factor is climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has

projected that for the period 1990 to 2100, average global temperatures are likely to rise by1.4-3.2C, while sea levels should increase by 9-88 centimetres. Barbados and SIDS in general

are highly susceptible to rises in the sea-level since this might lead to significant beach erosionresulting from the combination of higher sea levels and increased storm activity. This erosion is

likely to affect coastal infrastructure such as roads and hotels. Belle and Bramwell (2005),

through the use of semi-structured interviews and questionnaires, collected views on the likelyimpact of climate change on the Barbados tourism industry. Most respondents felt that

damage to coastal tourism facilit ies was very likely, with large proportions also indicating thatthere will be beach changes, higher sea levels and damage to the marine ecosystem. Similar

views were shared by industry managers and policymakers.

Despite the potential impact that climate change could have on the tourism industry inBarbados, there exists little or no previous research in this area in Barbados. The main studies

have been conducted by Delcan in 1994 and CPACC in 2001 and IADB 2007. This report drawson these as well as the technical reports prepared as part of this study to present a summary of

the potential impacts that climate change will have on Barbados tourism industry. Followingthis, recommendations are made for strategic directions that Barbados should follow to ensure

that the industry adopts the appropriate adaptation measures to protect this vital industryfrom the impacts of climate change. Since the coastal components of Barbados tourism

product constitute the basis of the tourism industry and are at greatest risk from climatechange, econometric evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on the Barbadian

tourism industry focuses on the coastal tourism product.

3.2 Economic Vulnerability of the Tourism Industry to Climate ChangeMythology (Methodology?) and Rational

Supply Side

The tourism industry provides a service to its clients, tourists. As a result , tourism supply isnormally measured in terms of carrying capacity. The World Tourism Organisation defines the

capacity of a particular destination as the level of visitors use an area can accommodate(WTO/UNEP, 1992). There are three main conceptual bases for carrying capacity: (1) social; (2)


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economic, and; (3) ecological. Social capacity refers to the visitor density at which the number

of unplanned interactions among individuals begins to reduce their enjoyment of theexperience. Economic carrying capacity, on the other hand, is the number of visitors that

maximises the net revenue of the destination (number of visitors times per capita payment lessinfrastructure and support costs), while ecological carrying capacity is the number of visitors

that produces no irreversible ecological change to the ecosystem of the particular destination.

This study employs the economic measure of carrying capacity. Climate change can impact onthe economic carrying capacity of Barbados, since it is likely to lead to the loss of some hotel

plant due to sea level rise, flooding as well as increased storm activity. On the basis of theDelcan and CPACC reports, the Ministry of Physical Development Environment (2001) reported

that the sea level was likely to rise by 0.2m by 2020, 0.5m by 2050 and 1m by 2100 for thesouth and west coasts of the island. In addition, on the south coast a zone of flooding is

predicted in excess of 1 km inland, while on the west coasts it could be up to 300m in someareas. To simulate the effects of these various scenarios, information on the location and

distance of hotels, guesthouses and apartments in Barbados was collected. This information

was then employed to identify the hotels as well as the potential number of rooms that couldbe affected in the scenarios described above.

Climate change is also expected to lead to rise in extreme hurricane events. While the total

number of hurricanes is unlikely to change by the end of the 21st century, the total number ofcategory five hurricanes (wind speeds greater than 155 mph) are expected to increase by a

third to 5, the number of category four hurricanes to 36 and the number of category threestorms to 92. Based on estimates by Williams and Sheets (2001), the probability of any of these

hurricanes affecting Barbados is 8.3 percent, while the probability of a major hurricane is 2.3percent.

Because of the rarity of hurricane events impacting on Barbados, there is little historical data to

use regarding the potential impact of these climatic condit ions on the economy. As analternative, therefore, one can use the experiences of other Caribbean islands to draw

inferences regarding the impact of these events. Table 1 compares hurricane strength to thenormalized damage estimates for various Caribbean countries. The results suggest that

category 1 storms are likely to cause a loss of GDP of about 5 or less percent. In contrast, a

category 5 storm causes damage over and above the countrys total national income.


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Table 1: Hurricane Strength Normalised Damage Estimates for the Caribbean

Country Name ofHurricane/Date

Saffir/Simpson(SS) scale

Normalised Damage

Estimates (1998 US

Dollars)

GDP (US

Dollars)

% of

GDP

St. Kitts andNevis

Georges/September-October 1998

Category 2 $800 million $287million

279%

US VirginIslands

Georges/September-October 1998

Category 1 $100 mill ion $1.8 billion 5%

Puerto Rico Georges/September-October 1998

Category 1 $3.5 billion $57 billion 6%

US VirginIslands

Marilyn/ September1995

Category 3 $3.1 billion $1.8 billion 172%

St. Maarten Luis/August-September1995

Category 3 $2.7 bil lion n.a. n.a.

Puerto Rico Hugo/September 1989 Category 3 $1.5 bil lion $57 bil lion 3%

St Lucia Allen/ August 1980 Category 3 $617 million $658

million

94%

Puerto Rico Claudette/July 1979 Tropical Storm $2 million $57 bil lion


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Combining the information on the projected number of storms and strike probabilities, allowsthe researchers to simulate the possible impact of increased hurricane activity on tourism

capacity in the Caribbean. A schematic representation of the model is provided in Figure 6.

Figure 6Schematic Representation of Supply-Side Simulation Model

Demand side

One of the most important elements of the destination experience is climate. The TCI,discussed earlier, provides researchers with a numerical measure of the effects that climate can

have on a visitors experience. A change in the TCI of the destination or that of its major sourcecountries can therefore have an impact on the demand for travel.

The main modification to the original TCI is that the total hours of sunshine was replaced by

mean visibility. This modification was done to account for the negative effects that poor

visibility might have on the visitors experience. The climate data used in this study are monthlymean observations from 1973-2008. For Barbados, observations are taken at the Grantley

Adams International Airport , for the UK at the London WEA Centre and for the US at John F.

Kennedy (JFK) International Airport.

Data on climate scenarios are obtained from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

The database provides projections from four models: (1) the Canadian Centre for ClimateModelling and Analysis Coupled Global Climate Model, CGCM2, (Flato and Boer, 2001); (2)

Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO2, (CSIRO,1996); (3) Parallel Climate Model, PCM, (Washington et al., 2000), and; (4) the UKs

Sea level

rise

Hurricaneactivity

Land loss

Flooding and

inundation

Wind

speed

Hotel

Plant


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Meteorological Office Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HADCM3). Four emissions scenarios (A1,

A2, B2 and B1) outlined by the IPCC are also examined.

The emissions scenarios assume that the main driving forces of future greenhouse gas

trajectories will continue to be demographic change, social and economic development, andthe rate and direction of technological change. The A1 and B1 scenarios are based on the low

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 1996 population projections: theworld population is expected to rise to 8.7 billion by 2050 and fall toward 7 billion by 2100 due

to a reduction in fertility as well as mortality. In contrast, the B2 scenario uses the long-term

United Nations (UN) Medium 1998 population projection of 10.4 billion by 2100, while the A2scenario assumes a high population growth of 15 billion by 2100 owing to a significant decline

in mortality for most regions (see IPCC, 2000, for greater details). All scenarios exclude surpriseor disaster scenarios and do not consider additional climate initiatives, such as the United

Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the emissions targets of theKyoto Protocol.

The four models and four emission scenarios provide 16 combinations of climate model and

emission scenarios that cover 93 percent of the possible range of global climate changeenvisaged by the IPCC. Since each of the scenarios is just as likely, the average of the 16

scenarios is employed, as well as one standard deviation below and above. These forecastedclimate indicators are used to calculate anticipated change in the TCI for Barbados as well as

the US and UK and therefore present an assessment of the change in the tourism features ofboth Barbados as well as two of its major source markets.

Country-Specific Model

The TCI offers an assessment of the potential implications that climate impact has on theattractiveness of a destination. It does not, however, present a quantitative assessment of the

prospective impact on tourism demand. To obtain such an estimate, a standard demand modelis augmented with the TCIs for Barbados as well as that for its main source markets.

The study utilises monthly data over the period 1973M1 to 2007M12. Observations on monthly

tourist arrivals data is taken from the Central Bank of Barbados Economic and Financial

Statistics(various issues). The income of source countries, proxied by the index of industrialproduction, prices and the exchange rate are all taken from the International Monetary Fund

(IMF)s International Financial Statistics (IFS) (online edition). Since monthly observations on air

fares are unavailable over the sample period, oil prices are employed as a proxy under theassumption that these two variables should be highly correlated.

Combining the scenarios for future climatic conditions has provided estimates of the direct

effects of climate change on tourist arrivals to the island. In addition, merging this data with

estimates of average visitor expenditure gives a dollar estimate of the impact on the tourismindustry and the overall economy.


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Global Model

There are also possible indirect effects of climate change on the local tourism industry. Theseindirect effects are liable to occur as potential visitors from major source markets adjust their

travel patterns as a result of climate change. An estimate of these substitution effects arisingfrom climate change is obtained using the global climate model of Hamilton et al. (2005). The

model is chosen since it takes into account the substitution effects resulting from climatechange for large database of countries. The starting point of the model is the matrix of bilateral

tourism flows. The model is then shocked under various scenarios for climate change toevaluate the indirect effects of climate change. Tourism supply is modelled as a function of the

relative attractiveness of the destination, while tourism demand is determined by income in thesource country as well as its climate.

The simulation model works as follows: the number of tourists going on an international

holiday is determined by the demand side of the model. These visitors are then allocated to

various destinations based on their attractiveness. Merging this data with forecast of climatechange in various destinations provides an estimate of the indirect effects of climate change.

Results

Supply-Side ImpactsThree scenarios are considered and are in line with those outlined by the Ministry of Physical

Development Environment (2001) expectations for increases in sea levels: (1) 0.2 metre rise insea levels (2020) estimated to lead to a maximum of 3.3 metres of land loss; (2) 0.5 metre rise

in sea levels (2050) estimated to lead to a maximum of 8 metres of land loss, and; (3) 1 metre

rise in sea levels (2100) estimated to lead to a maximum of 32 metres of land loss. Thesimulated results for these three scenarios are provided in Table 3. The model suggests thatgiven the proximity of most hotels to the beach, a 0.2 metre rise in sea levels could likely

impact on about 12 hotels or about 7 percent of the total number of hotels in the island. Thesehotels account for 122 rooms or about 3 percent of the room stock. Assuming about a 56

percent occupancy rate, this translates into an annual reduction in revenue of about $3.5million. The long-term projected rise in sea levels, about 0.5 and 1 metre, is likely to have more

severe effects: both scenarios are likely to impact over 40 percent of hotels and lead to a

reduction in revenue of around $100 million.


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Table 3: Potential Impact on Hotel Plant of Various Land Loss Scenarios

Land Loss (m)/Sea Level Rise(m)

3.3/0.2 m 8/0.5 m 32/1 m

Number of Hotels Affected 12 68 72

% of Hotel Plant 7.1 40.5 42.9

Number of Rooms Affected 122 2315 2487

% of Hotel Rooms 2.7 51.6 55.4

Loss Revenue 3,475,785.

5

98,723,011.

5

105,886,574.

5

N.B.: Assumes a 56 percent occupancy rate for the year.

It is also likely that climate change can lead to greater tropical storm activity. To account forthese effects the model combines information on the projected number of hurricanes, strike

probabilit ies and likely devastation to evaluate the impact on the local industry. Although thenumbers of devastating hurricanes are likely to rise, the expected impact on Barbados is likely

to be small due to Barbados relatively low strike probability. For example, while 5 category 5hurricanes are likely to pass through the region by the end of the 21st century, Barbados low

strike probability implies that the expected damage to the hotel plant is relatively small (only181 rooms over the period costing about $37,000 in loss revenue). In contrast, relatively more

damage is to be expected from category 3 storms as about 92 of these are expected to passthrough the region by the end of the 21st century, leading to expected loss revenue of about

$2.5 million.

Table 4: Potential Impact of Increased Hurricane Activity on Hotel Plant (2071-2100) by lowstrike probability

Type of Hurricane

Category 3

(Expected

Number = 92)

Category 4

(Expected

Number = 36)

Category 5

(Expected

Number = 5)

Number of rooms

affected 11,992.0 4,692.5 180.6

Per year 399.7 156.4 6.0

Loss Revenue 2,449,782.44 958,610.52 36,894.31

Per year ($) 81,659.41 31,953.68 1,229.81



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The result above assumes a rather low strike probability, 8.3 percent, based on historical

experience. It is likely that the past might not be a good indicator of future strike probabilit ies.Table 5 considers higher strike probabilities to investigate the potential impact on the hotel

plant in the island. The table shows that if the expected total damage from storms affecting theisland between 2071 and 2100 are likely to rise from $3.4 million to $6.3 million if the strike

probability rises to 15 percent and $8.5 million if the strike probability rises to 20 percent.

Table 7: Potential Impact of Increased Hurricane Activity on Hotel Plant (2071-2100) by highstrike probability

Strike Probabil it y = 15 percent

Type of Hurricane

Category 3

(Expected

Number = 92)

Category 4

(Expected

Number = 36)

Category 5

(Expected

Number = 5)

Number of rooms

affected 21,672.2 8,480.4 1,177.8

Per year 722.4 282.7 39.3

Loss Revenue 4,427,317.7 1,732,428.7 240,615.1

Per year ($) 147,577.3 57,747.6 8,020.5

Strike Probabil it y = 20 percent

Type of HurricaneCategory 3

(Expected

Number = 92)

Category 4

(Expected

Number = 36)

Category 5

(Expected

Number = 5)

Number of rooms

affected 28,896.3 11,307.2 1,570.5

Per year 963.2 376.9 52.3

Loss Revenue 5,903,090.2 2,309,904.9 320,820.1

Per year ($) 196,769.7 76,996.8 10,694.0


The results provided above suggest that the greatest supply-side impact of climate will be due

to sea level rises. There is a relatively high risk of damage to a significant proportion of the


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hotel plant due to land loss. These effects could also be exacerbated by the effects of storm

surges. In addition, those hotels that are not directly affected could be indirectly affectedthrough higher premiums.

Demand-Side Impacts

This section of the report evaluates the potential effects of climate change on the demand bypotential travellers to visit the island.

Tourism Features

One potential impact of climate change is that it can change the characteristics of the travellershome country as well as the tourist destination. If climate change makes the visitors home

country much more attractive, it is likely that rather than vacationing abroad, many personswould choose to take their holidays at home. Similarly, if climate change makes the tourist

destination less attractive to visit, this can also lead to a reduction in the number of travellersseeking to visit.

To provide an empirical evaluation of these potential effects of climate change on Barbados

tourism features, Barbados average Tourism Comfort Index (TCI) is calculated for the period1973 to 2008 and the results are plotted in Figure 7. The figure suggests that on average, the

best t ime to visit Barbados is between December and April. This finding matches well thetraditional tourist season in the island: during these five months of the year, the island receives

almost 50 percent of annual visitor arrivals.

Figure 7 also plots the likely changes to Barbados tourism features occurring under the IPCCs

four likely emissions scenarios. The results suggest a possible flattening out of the islands TCI

under scenarios B1 and B2. The improvements in the islands TCI in the middle months of theyear occur primarily as a result of a reduction in precipitation during the traditional rainyseason. In contrast, under the A1 and A2 scenarios, the summer seasons are anticipated to be

unbearable for visitors, due a rise in the average temperature in these months to 30oC, witheven higher daily maximum temperatures. As a result , under both the A1 and A2 scenarios the

TCI for Barbados is likely to decline.


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Figure 7 Impact of Climate Change on Barbados TCI

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Max=100

Historical Average A1 A2 B1 B2

The demand for overseas trips by individuals in Barbados key source markets is also likely to beaffected by climate change. Figures 8 and 9 provide the simulated results for the four likely

emissions scenarios in the US (JFK International Airport) and UK (Heathrow Airport),respectively. In the case of the US, the TCI is forecasted to deteriorate under all four emission

scenarios due to the combined effects of greater precipitation and higher temperatures. Incontrast, the UKs TCI is anticipated to improve slightly, particularly during Barbadoss tourist

season: December to April. The improvement in the UKs TCI occurs primarily due to a rise inaverage temperatures during these periods. Such a shift in the climatic patterns in the UK could

potentially reduce the demand for trips to the island for travellers from this source market.


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Figure 8 Impact of Climate Change on the US TCI (JFK International Airport)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


Max=100


Figure 9 Impact of Climate Change on the UKs TCI (London, Heathrow Airport)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0


Max=100


In addition to an analysis of Barbados key source markets, it is also of interest to analyse thepotential impact of climate change on potential competitors. Figures 10 and 11 plot the results

for Spain and Maurit ius, respectively. In the case of Spain, the TCI is forecasted to deteriorateunder all four emission scenarios due to the combined effects of greater precipitation and


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higher temperatures. In contrast, Mauritius TCI is anticipated to improve under all four

emission scenarios. The improvement is anticipated to occur primarily due to a reduction inprecipitation and lower maximum temperatures.

Figure 10 Impact of Climate Change on Spains TCI (Getafe)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0


Max=100


Figure 11Impact of Climate Change on the Mauritius TCI (Rodrigues)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0


Max=100



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Country-Specific ModelThe analysis of the likely changes in the TCI for Barbados as well as two of its major source

markets suggests that the demand for travel to the island could decline owing to the changes inclimatic patterns. The TCIs, however, cannot provide an estimate of the likely number of

visitors that could be loss due to this deterioration in the tourism features of Barbados andimprovement of those of our main source markets. To obtain such an estimate, a model of the

demand for travel has to be employed.

The coefficient of income is positive and statistically signif icant, suggesting that on average a10 percent rise in the income of individuals in Barbados key source markets results in a 4

percent expansion in arrivals from that market. A rise in the relative TCI of Barbados also has apositive and statistically significant impact on tourist demand. This finding suggests that the

climatic features of Barbados as well as its main source markets can have a significant influenceon long-run tourist arrivals.

The relative price of goods and services in Barbados compared to those in key source marketswas negative and statistically significant. The results of analysis indicate that for every 1

percent increase in prices in Barbados above those of its main source markets, tourist arrivalsfall by 0.3 percent. The results seem to indicate that visitors to the island are not very price

sensitive, and this is probably reflective of Barbadoss reputation as an upmarket destination.

While the specific forecast for various scenarios differ somewhat, in general the projections arequite similar: by the end of the 21st century a deterioration in Barbados TCI combined with an

improvement in the TCIs of our main source markets is likely to reduce monthly tourist arrivalsby between 24 and 40 percent. This suggests that the tourism industry could be about a third

of the size than it is at present. The traditional tourist season is likely to be hardest hit, as thesemonths could become relatively less attractive to visitors. The reduction in the size of the

tourism industry is likely to have multiplier effects on the entire economy due to the relativeimportance of the industry to the Barbadian economy. As a result , policymakers in Barbados

will need to develop alternative industries to offset the declining returns from the tourismindustry.


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4 CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES AND THREATS TO TOURISM IN BARBADOSThe IPCC Working Group II 2007 report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability linked SIDSwith the following foci of attention: climate change, issues in adaptation to climate change,

coastal tourism, coral reef degradation and coral bleaching, wild faunal diversity/nature-basedtourism and, extreme events. In a recent report concerning climate change and tourism UNEP

(2008) stated that climate variable play a direct role with respect to tourist decision-making andactivities and indirect effects also have substantial affects on tourism activities, perceptions of a

location, and the capacity of firms to do business. However, it was also noted that it is difficultto isolate the direct observed impacts of climate change upon tourism activity (UNEP, 2008).

The following sections detail some of the potential direct and indirect impacts of climatechange on the Barbados tourism industry.

4.1 Climate Change Impacts On Coastal Tourism Sea Level RiseSea level rise is expected to pose one of the greatest threats to tourism in Barbados. It will

exacerbate wave and storm surge effects occurring with hurricanes. The island will remainvulnerable whether or not the trend in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes is linked toclimate variability or climate change.

Given the economic importance of the tourism industry to Barbados and the concentration of

the major elements of the tourism product in a narrow swath adjacent to the shore line, therehave been three major studies undertaken which looked at climate change and its effect on the

coastline. In particular the impacts of sea-level rise under different scenarios were investigated.

The first study was undertaken by Delcan International as part of the Feasibility Studies on

Coastal Conservation. The key results of this study are contained in the report Water Levels forBarbados (Delcan 1994). The second study was undertaken by Caribbean Planning forAdaptation Global Climate Change Project (CPACC, 2001). The third study was a coastal risk

assessment for the IADB funded Adaptation for Climate Change and Disaster Mitigation:

Township Planning Strategies for Storm Surge in the Caribbean Project (Delcan, 2007).

4.1.1 THE DELCAN STUDY: THE WATER LEVELS FOR BARBADOSThe ability to predict future sea levels (water levels) relative to the Barbados shoreline, under a

range of weather conditions is an essential precondition to sound development planning andengineering design. The areas of design and planning in which this kind of information is

essential include:a) structural design (including a structures elevation above sea level) of coastal and

marine structures, such as groynes, piers, moorings, revetmentsb) the design of gullies and coastal drainage channels to maximize the efficiency

with which storm water is discharged into coastal wasters


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c) water resources management and the prediction and estimation of salt waterintrusions into coastal aquifers

d) the modeling of natural sand transport by coastal waves and currents and beachstability modeling; and

e) the establishment of minimum elevations above mean sea level for futureconstruction of building foundations drainage structures, soak-away pits roads(with associated drainage) and other infrastructure.

These design decisions have direct relevance for the level of exposure and vulnerability toextreme climatic events and climate change induced impacts to which structures in the tourism

industry will be exposed.

Two objectives of Delcans investigation of projected trends in coastal water levels aroundBarbados were:

to provide sea-level data for use in coastal structure design to provide guidance in the establishment of regulatory measures pertaining to the use

and development of the shoreline of the south and west coasts

In order to produce information on future sea levels that took into account the affects of globalclimate change the Delcan team supplemented the standard water level components such as

tidal, wave induced, and meteorological water levels with estimates of sea level rise. Theresulting projections for sea water levels were intended to inform planning decisions and

engineering design.

At the time of the study, sea-level had been rising by approximately 3.0mm yr-1 over thehistorical period covered by tide gauge data. For planning purposes UNEP (1989)

recommended that a projected rate of sea level rise of 5.0 mm yr-1

be used for Caribbeanregional modelling. This rate of sea-level rise was used by Delcan to calculate future climate

change induced water levels around Barbados. A high range scenario of 10mm yr-1 for climatechange induced sea level on a global scale was adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC, 1990).

The DELCAN Study used the historical (3.0mm yr -1), UNEP (5.0 mm yr -1), and IPCC (10mm yr-1)estimates of sea-level rise to calculate sea-levels (sea level stands) at five points in time

between 2000 and 2100 (Table 6). The medium projection based on an estimated rate of sea-level rise of 5 mm-1 was used for design purposes.


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Table 6: Scenarios for Future Sea Level Rise in Barbados Amount of Relative Sea Level Change(mm) by Year (A.D.)

Design Criteria

The selection of appropriate design criteria requires the assessment of acceptable levels of risk.For the purpose of the Delcan Study a 1:100 year risk level was proposed for flooding and aminimum 1:50 year for the design for coastal structures and a suggested freeboard (the

distance between estimated water level and the top of a structure) of 0.5 m be applied tocoastal structures.

The predicted elevation of water levels was calculated and presented for the 50 and 100 year

return period events respectively for each stretch of coastline (reach) on the south and westcoasts of Barbados. For each reach information was provided on three parameters:

The flooding potential within the reach. Design water depths at the shoreline for future detailed breaking wave height

calculations. The suggested design elevation to withstand flooding.

Study Results

The results indicated that during the 100 year hurricane, 70% of the reaches could be subjectedto inundation, 10% to occasional overtopping and 20% will be dry. During the 50 year hurricane,

59% of the reaches could be subjected to inundation, 19% to occasional overtopping and 22%will be dry. These results were verified, in a qualitative manner, using historical observations of

flooding and shoreline damage.This information was mapped using Global Information System

(GIS) technology to plot the flooding limits on the west coast at scales of 1:2500 and 1: 1250.The potential flooding areas were delineated.

This information on flooding potential did not consider the flooding that may result fromsurface run-off caused by the intense rainfall which often accompanies tropical storms and

hurricanes.


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The elevated sea levels described in Delcan report will serve as a barrier causing rain-related

run-off to accumulate over land to a depth that matches the increased sea-level. The volume ofwater expected to overtop a beach crest or shoreline structure during a storm was not

determined. The areas of concern where flooding was predicted are listed below:

On most of the south coast, extensive flooding was predicted up to and inland of themain highway. Atlantic Shores, St Lawrence, Cacrabank (now Coral Mist) and most ofHastings Rock are all located on high cliffs and therefore escape severe flooding. The

area around Graeme Hall was predicted to be extensively flooded, to 1 km inland.

A zone of flooding, approximately 150 m wide was predicted through Carlisle Bay andparts of Bridgetown.

On the west coast, the flood zone was up to 300 m wide near Brandons, the southernpart of Holetown, and Speightstown to Heywoods. Other areas that were predicted tohave flooding up to 150 m inland included Fitts Village, Paynes Bay, Goddings and

Mullins.

4.1.2 THE CPACC STUDY - COASTAL VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENTThe goal of the CPACC project was to build capacity in the Caribbean region for the adaptation

to climate change impacts, particularly sea level rise. This was accomplished through thecompletion of vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning, and capacity building activities.

Participating countries in CPACC included the majority of CARICOM members. These are:Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica,

Saint Lucia, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent, and Trinidad and Tobago. Pilot coastal vulnerability

assessment studies were conducted for Barbados, Grenada and Guyana to assess the impact ofsea-level rise on coastal infrastructure and tourism, water resources, and the tourism industry,

respectively.

For the vulnerability risk assessment undertaken for Barbados a number of methodologies wereanalysed. The methodologies analysed included the IPCC common methodology, the US

Country Studies Programme, the South Pacific Island Methodology, the Research Institute forKnowledge and the UNEP Handbook methodology. Analysis of these methodologies revealed

that the UNEP methodology was the most appropriate. The UNEP methodology offered theflexibility of the utilization of limited data (which is quite prevalent in the Caribbean) and has a

good conceptual basis.

The CPACC project amended the UNEP methodology by utilizing a screening assessment. Thescreening assessment is a rapid way of assessing the coastal vulnerability, identifying areas for

detailed study as well as identifying priority needs. The screening assessment identified that

climate change impacts to the tourism sector was of key concern for Barbados with theprincipal impacts expected from sea level rise being coastal erosion, inundation and saltwater

intrusion into coastal aquifers.


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The scenarios used in the risk assessment were 0.2m sea level rise by 2020, 0.5m by 2050 and0.9-1m by 2100. The pilot sites selected for Barbados focused mainly on the south and west

coasts where the main tourism facilit ies were located. This corresponded to the areas assessedunder the Delcan Study.

Land loss and shoreline retreat utilizing the Bruun Rule was calculated for the pilot sites

Holetown, Sandy Lane, Brighton and Speightstown on the west coast and Casuarina, GraemeHall and Dover on the south coast. Land loss and shoreline retreat was also calculated for

Catt lewash on the east coast.

Table 7 below shows the land loss at different locations. Many of the pilot sites were keytourism areas, where any beach represents a crit ical compromise in the quality of the tourism

product. Most beaches in Barbados are only 12-15m in width and have extremely gentlegradients thus any land loss at these beaches would be devastating.

Table 7: Land Loss at Specific Sites on Barbados Coast

Utilizing the Water Levels Report for Barbados (Delcan 1994), further analysis was undertaken

on predicted elevations of water levels during a hurricane event with an average return periodof 100 years.

For all three sea level rise scenarios extensive flooding was predicted up to and inland of the

main highway for most of the south coast. The findings for the coastal areas with respect toinundation were the same, and for the larger scenarios, greater than those of the Delcan Study.

Due to the very wide beach and offshore bathymetry at Sandy Lane, the inundation limits for allthree scenarios were seaward of the coastal road. Critical infrastructure affected included the

Bayview Hospital, Government Headquarters, the Barbados Light and Power Limited, most ofthe major hotels and a number of the fire and police stations located on the coast.


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4.1.3 IADB STUDY: INTERMEDIATE RISK ASSESSMENT OF ST. PETER TOWNSHIPSmith Warner International in association with Environmental Solutions Limited undertook arisk assessment for the Project Adaptation for Climate Change and Disaster Mitigation:

Township Planning Strategies for Storm Surge in the Caribbean. The general objective of theProject was to facilitate a process that would assist the Caribbean region in the development of

adaptation strategies and capacity needed to deal with the impact of severe weather eventsanticipated to occur in association with climate change. Jamaica and Barbados were used as

pilot cases for the Caribbean in the preliminary phase of the project.

The risk assessment report presented the general methodology followed in the assessment ofthe risks associated with storm surge hazards in the area of St. Peter Township, Barbados.

This assessment included: The preparation of storm surge hazard maps for the area of St. Peter Township; The assessment of the vulnerability of the critical elements of each community

to storm surge hazard; and

The utilization of the storm surge hazard maps and the vulnerability assessmentto determine risk associated with storm surge impact.

The general approach to the exercise involved mapping infrastructure and resources using GIS

technology and superimposing the extent of modelled projections of coastal inundation fromstorm surges enhanced by climate change induced sea-level rise. The residential communities

and other land uses; demographics patterns, economic assets, infrastructure and other criticalfacilities were mapped and compared with overlays representing the modelled extent of future

storm surge hazards. Legislation, governance and institutional capacity were also evaluated inthe context of risk management requirements (Delcan, 2007).

Storm surge hazard inundation maps were produced for the area of St. Peter Township,

Barbados, and for the 50-yr, 100-yr and 150-yr return periods.

Summary of Hazard Analysis and Mapping

The main findings of the hazard analysis relating to methodological design and assessedvulnerability were:

The data requirements necessary for the study of storm surge hazards includedthe knowledge of the hurricane history (history of extreme events) of the studyarea, as well as reliable bathymetric and topographic data.

The need for the consideration of the issues related to global warming andclimate change was apparent. As such, the study took into account the increaseof the frequency and intensity of storms in the Caribbean, as well as the global

sea level rise.


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The wave/wind directions resulting in higher storm surge levels and significantwave heights at the shoreline were from the WSW, W, WNW and NW.

The static storm surge levels predicted at the shoreline differ for the differentareas of St. Peter Township, being higher in the areas of Cobblers Cove,Speightstown City Centre and Almond Beach Hotel, and lower in the rest of the

areas. The maximum values (for each of the three return periods investigated) of the

static storm surge level (SSSL) predicted at any of the shoreline areas and for anyof the wave/wind directions considered, were selected as the critical levels for

planning and preparedness activities. The predicted significant wave heights at the shoreline differ also for the

different areas of St. Peter Township. The highest wave heights seem to occur inthe area of Goddings Bay.

The development of the study showed that the accuracy of the topographic datadetermines the accuracy of the prediction of the storm surge extent. As such, it

was recommended that a safety band be applied, in addition to the predicted

storm surge extent. The need for the study of the joint occurrence of inland flooding and storm surge

flooding was also evident in order to assess the full vulnerability of the area. Thisrepresented a limitation in the completeness of the analysis of the coastal flood

hazard associated with a hurricane event.

Summary of Vulnerability and Risk Issues

The vulnerability and risk assessment exercises highlighted a number of features at risk,including:

Low-lying linear settlements are located in close proximity and parallel to the coast. A number of heritage properties in the mapped hazard zone of Speightstown that are in

good condition.

A fishing village at Six Mens Bay at the north end of this stretch. New major high value resort properties constructed within the storm surge zone. Over 300 structures and 1,000 persons potentially at risk. 13% of the population at risk are over age 65 years of age. The impact of a 150 year event is estimated to be between US$7million and 20 million.

4.2 Climate Change Impacts On Water ResourcesThe most recent IPCC Assessment Report (2007) and the IPCC Technical Paper VI ClimateChange and Water (2008) provide the outputs from mult iple General Circulation Models (GCM)

and they have indicated that for the Caribbean Region the impact of climate change will be ageneral decrease in precipitation, run-off and soil moisture coupled with an increase in

evaporation and temperatures.


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In order to generate more localised projections at higher levels of resolution than those

produced by the IPCC using GCMs, the UWI Mona Climate Studies Group, the CaribbeanCommunity Climate Change Centre and UWI Cave Hill have collaborated to employ the Hadley

Centres PRECIS regional climate modelling system to downscale the results of the GlobalCirculation Models (GCMs). The output from this modelling work has provided a more detailed

insight into the regional effects of climate change on the Caribbean Region.

Box 1: Emissions Scenarios for Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources.

Three emission scenarios were used for developing PRECIS regional climate models; the A1B,

B2 and A2, broadly speaking the A1B emissions scenario is one of continued economic

growth with the introduction of more efficient energy technologies an a balanced use of all

energy sources, in other words what might be called a medium emissions scenario. In

contrast the A2 scenario is a high emissions based on: a world of independently operating,

self-reliant nations; continuously increasing population; regionally oriented economic

development; and slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to

per capita income.

The B2, a low emissions scenario is based on assumptions of: continuously increasing

population, but at a slower rate than in A2; emphasis on local rather than global solutions to

economic, social and environmental stability; intermediate levels of economic development;

and less rapid and fragmented technological changes (IPCC, 2007).


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The main conclusions concerning

temperatures and precipitation,arising from this modelling work are

as follows. On averagetemperatures would exhibit an

annual warming of between 1and5 C through the Caribbean,

depending on the region andscenario. The warming would be

greater in the northwest Caribbeanterritories of Cuba, Jamaica,

Hispaniola and Belize than in the eastern Caribbean island chain. Also, there would be greaterwarming in the summer months than in the cooler and traditionally drier earlier months of the

year. Many Caribbean islands are likely to become increasingly water-stressed in the future, asa result of climate change irrespective of the climate scenario employed (Arnell, 2004, Taylor et

al., 2007).

The pattern that emerges suggests a drying across the Caribbean basin. The decreases in

rainfall range from 25% to 50% depending on the scenario and part of the Caribbean basin. Theeffect of climate change appears to be to enhance the existing climatic pattern making the

wet and dry zones wetter and drier respectively, during the first 4 6 months of the year. Forthe months of May to October the entire Caribbean is up to 25% drier.

Despite the widely varied conditions which drive the different climate scenarios, there is a large

degree of agreement between the different climate models with respect to rainfall patterns in

the Caribbean. In the case of the Eastern Caribbean under all three climatic scenarios examined(A1B, A2 and B2), the projections are for a substantially drier wet season (July-November), aneven drier dry season (March-April) and a marginally wetter spell at the end of the year.

Using the outputs of the PRECIS models to assess projected temperature and precipitation

patterns for Barbados, there is agreement among models for significant increases in meanannual minimum and maximum temperatures by approximately 1C and 2C respectively by

2050.

The impact of changes in precipitation patterns were assessed using the monthly percentagechanges in rainfall for the three scenarios. The results indicate that rainfall will be significantly

reduced during the wet season (Fig. 12). In terms of the impact on the relative length of the wetand dry seasons there appears to be a small amount of change with the dry season being

perhaps slightly longer.


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Figure 12 Monthly Rainfall

There will be a shift in the number of days between significant rainfall events during the wetseason. This would imply that more rain will fall during the average rainfall event, resulting in

an increase in the intensity of rainfall, even though the overall volume of rain is decreasing. Thischange in rainfall pattern will have implications for flooding. With more rain falling in a shorter

period of time, the percent of the rain that contributes to surface run-off will be expected to

increase. With more of the reduced overall volume of rain contributing to surface run-off, less

will seep into the ground to recharge the islands aquifers. This had implications for theavailability of water for consumption.

Water Availability

Water availability was taken as a function of changes in overall water storage. In order to asses

this using a simplified systems approach two components are necessary; knowledge of what isbeing input into and the outputs from the water system. The simplified approach adopted is

shown in Fig. 13.


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Figure 13 Schematic Representation of a Simplified Water Balance Scheme

The basic input into the system is the rain that falls on Barbados. This is determined from

existing records of rainfall and its distribution over the island. The outputs are the emissions,discharges and primary output the demand for water. Rainfall minus the emissions and

discharges is taken as being the effective recharge to the aquifers that can be harnessedthrough abstraction in order to meet the various demands for water. The fact that there are no

significant surface water resources; streams, lakes or other water bodies allows this simplifiedprocedure to be adopted.

Summary of Water Demand

The following graph (Fig. 14) summarises the overall projection of water demand. The solefactor accounting for the decrease in total demand is the introduction of leakage reduction

measures.

The reason for the hump between 2030 and 2040 is due to the fact that the magnitude of the

reductions in domestic demand is offset by (less than) increases in agriculture and tourism.After 2040 this is reversed.


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Figure 14 Total Projected Water Demand (m3)

Total Demand

60,000,000

60,500,000

61,000,000

61,500,000

62,000,000

62,500,000

63,000,000

Year

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

Year

Demandm^3

Water Balance

Of interest for this study is the relative change in the water balance rather than the absolute

amount in storage. The net change in water balance is therefore the difference between therecharge amount and the overall water demand. For the purposes of this exercise the period of

analysis was taken as being between 2010 and 2050.

Three cases were investigated. The baseline case has no allowance for climate change (Fig. 15)whist the remainder take into account the impact of climate change based on emissionscenarios A1B, A2 and B2 on recharge (Fig. 16). Conservatively no corresponding allowance hasbeen made for the impact of climate change on demand i.e. the observation that water

consumption is positively correlated with climate has not been factored in and may thereforeunderestimate overall water demand in the future.

The effects of climate change on recharge have been factored in by 2025: following discussions

with Dr. Leonard Nurse. For the period 2010 2025 a linear t ransit ion between current andclimate changed levels of recharge has been allowed for.


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Water Balance Results

The results of the water balance are shown in the following figures.

Figure 15 Water Balance with no Climate Change (m3)

Water Balance - No Climate Change

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

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