NASA ARMD Strategic Planning€¦ · further improve operations and support traffic growth,...

NASA ARMD Strategic PlanningInvesting in our Future

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

APPROACH

www.nasa.gov 2

U.S. leadership for a new era of flight

www.nasa.gov 3

NASA AeronauticsNASA Aeronautics Vision for Aviation in the 21st Century

ARMD Strategic Portfolio Model

www.nasa.gov 4

Strategic Thrust Roadmaps

Tech Challenges

SIP Outcomes

Drives Top-

Down Planning

Roadmaps Provide

Guidance for

Project / Center

Innovation and

Planning

Partnerships &

Performance Create a

Feedback Loop

Portfolio Elements

• In addition, there are some key additional portfolio elements

– Emerging Technical Challenges – Exploratory Research to define and enable future technical

challenges aligned to the Strategic Thrust Roadmaps

– CAS / LEARN Initiatives – Multi-Discipline and Convergent “Fast Feasibility” efforts to challenge

conventional thinking and define potentially new, transformative pathways

– Transformative Tools and Technologies – Supports single discipline advancements and

development of revolutionary physics-based tools. Utilizes community-based vision at a

discipline level to define pathway – e.g., CFD 2030

Technical Challenges, as derived from the SIP and

Strategic Thrust Roadmaps, are the primary Portfolio

Elements for ARMD

Technical Challenges have specific and track-able

value propositions to enable benefit in the aviation

system

Tech Challenges

Tech Challenges

www.nasa.gov 5

ARMD Management Structure

AA Sets the Strategic Direction and Integrated Long-

Term Investment Plan of the Mission Directorate,

Oversees its Implementation, and Sustains a National

Dialogue with Stakeholders

Directors Set the Strategic Direction of the Programs,

Manage a Portfolio of Projects, and Collaborate with the

External Community to Enable Achievement of the

Outcomes

Managers Plan and Implement Projects as a Portfolio of

Technical Challenges and Collaborate with the External

Community to Ensure Technical Challenges are Aligned to

Community Needs and Support Achievement of Outcomes

Managers Plan and Implement one (or potentially more)

Technical Challenge(s) and Collaborate with the External

Community to Ensure Technical Challenges Provide

Measurable Impact to the Customer and Support

Achievement of Outcomes

Represents primary approach of AAVP, AOSP & IASP; TAC provides “early convergent innovation” opportunities to support and

challenge ARMD strategic and tactical planning and “transformative” advancements within single disciplines and advanced methods

Aligns Responsibility and Accountability with the Strategic Portfolio Model

SIP

Outcomes

&

Roadmaps

Technical

Challenge

s

Technical

Challenge

s

AA

Programs

Projects

Sub

Projects

www.nasa.gov 6

ROADMAP PLANNING

www.nasa.gov 7

ARMD Roadmaps

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AR

MD

’s A

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ese

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axo

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my

Strategic Thrust 1

Safe, Efficient Growth in

Global Operations

Strategic Thrust 2

Innovation in Commercial

Supersonic Aircraft

Strategic Thrust 3

Ultra-Efficient Commercial

Vehicles

Strategic Thrust 4

Transition to Low-Carbon

Propulsion

Strategic Thrust 5

Real-Time System-Wide

Safety Assurance

Strategic Thrust 6

Assured Autonomy for

Aviation Transformation

Community Outcomes and

Vision & Strategy

Near Term: 2015-2025

Mid Term: 2025-2035

Far Term: Beyond 2035

Benefits, Capabilities

(Expanded Outcomes)

Research Themes

Long-Term Research Areas

that will enable the

outcomes (most outcomes

encompass multiple

research themes)

Roadmap and

Overarching Technical

Challenges

Specific measurable

research commitments

within the research themes

(most research themes

encompasses several

technical challenges (TC);

each ARMD program project

list the TC’s for which they

are responsible.

Stakeholders / Community Overview

www.nasa.gov 9

TaxpayerNASAARMD

IndustryProducts

Operators Users Airlines Service

providers

President/OMB

Congress

Standards Orgs &

RegulatorsOGAs,

Industry,Academia

Aviation

System

Outcomes

R&D / S&T

Outputs

Funding

Stakeholders

Resources

Benefits

Validated

Concepts,

Tools &

Technologies

NASA Contribution to Community Outcomes

www.nasa.gov 10

Size/Complexity connection to Lead Times/Development Cycles

2015

2025

2035

NEAR 1st Tech EIS MID 1st Tech EIS FAR 1st Tech EIS

Very Few Opportunities

Few Opportunities

ManyOpportunities

High Commercial Investment

“Bet the company”

NASA OUTPUTS contribute toCOMMUNITY OUTCOMES

SYSTEM VEHICLE SIZE/COMPLEXITY

Large Fixed Wing, 5-7 years1-2 opportunities

Complex National System, (ERAM datacom) 5-15 years1 opportunity

Large Vertical Lift, 3-5 years2-3 opportunities

Complex Single Domain SystemATD-1, 5-10 years 3-5 opportunities

Small VL/FW, 1-2 yearsMany opportunities

Targeted system improvementsDWR, 3-5 years many opportunities

COMMUNITY OUTCOMES

ARMD Outcomes, Benefits and Capabilities

www.nasa.gov 11

Strategic Thrust 1: Safe, Efficient Growth in Global Operations

2015 2025 2035

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ATM+1 Improved NextGen Operational Performance in

Individual Domains, with Some Integration Between Domains

ATM+2 Full NextGen Integ. Terminal, En Route, Surface,

and Arrivals/Departures Operations to Realize TBO

ATM+3 Beyond NextGen Dynamic Autonomous

Trajectory Services

Ben

efi

ts

Improved domain efficiency at the earliest possible date,

supporting cost savings and reduction of environmental

impact

System efficiency, predictability and reliability gains to

further improve operations and support traffic growth,

including UAS

Dynamic, fully autonomous trajectory services enabling

rapid adaption to meet user demand or respond to

system perturbations

Cap

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NA

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• ATD demos

• Domain Metering and Domain TBO technologies

• Collaborative Decisions Making

• Guidelines & Standards for initial UAS integration in the

NAS

• Improved weather and hazard awareness, prediction

and alerting technologies

• Weather integrated into core traffic management

functionalities

• Safety analyses for new airspace concepts

• Safety technologies for new vehicle concepts

• Modeling & Sim Tools to test new ATM & NextGen

Concepts

• Requirements for a secure CNSi system for TBO

• Gate to gate TBO/TFM technologies in conjunction

with the FAA

• Novel ATM capabilities brought on by disruptive

technologies

• Technologies, Guidelines & Standards for integration

of all vehicles types into the NAS

• Integrated autonomous UAS operations & new vehicle

types into the NAS

• Technologies for safe global operations with all-

weather capability, multi-domain situational awareness

and prognostic safety awareness, prediction and

alerting

• Enhanced Modeling & Sim Tools with predictive &

alerting capabilities

• Introduction of cyberphysical systems to enhance

safety

• Secure CNSI architecture requirements to support

autonomous operations

• Technologies and concepts beyond NextGen

• Advanced automation technologies allowing

autonomy integrated into the NAS

• Safe routine access of all vehicle types & classes in

the NAS

• Technologies for safe global operations with resilient

degradation

• Adaption of advanced computational methods &

platforms, critical data infrastructure/data sharing

• Modeling to include real-time multi-vehicle near

continuous optimization with real-time data

• Robust CNSi enabling increasing autonomous

operations


www.nasa.gov 12

Strategic Thrust 2: Innovation in Commercial Supersonic Aircraft

2015 2025 2035

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Supersonic Overland Certification Standard Based on

Acceptable Sonic Boom Noise

Introduction of Affordable, Low-boom, Low-noise, and

Low-emission Supersonic Transports

Increased Mission Utility and Commercial Market

Growth of Supersonic Transport fleet

Ben

efi

ts

Rules preventing overland supersonic flight are replaced

with noise certification standards for en route supersonic

noise. Market is opened for new supersonic aircraft

New market for fast point to point transportation is served

by environmentally compatible small supersonic aircraft.

New business and job growth opportunities for

manufacturers

A variety of air transportation markets will be served by

supersonic aircraft with capacities as large as 200

passengers. These aircraft will offer rapid travel with

competitive economics and reduced environmental

impact

Cap

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AS

A O

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• Low boom design tools

• Fundamental data on the characteristics of low noise

waveforms in real atmosphere

• Scientifically valid data on community response to low

noise supersonic overflight

• Models for extrapolating community response to fleet

impacts

Technologies enabling the first and second generations of

supersonic transports with emphasis on acceptable

community and en route noise and high altitude emissions.

ATM technologies & procedures for efficient supersonic &

terminal ops

Vehicle Capabilities

• Business aircraft economics

• Mach: 1.6–1.8

• Range: 4,000 n.mi.

• Passengers: 6–90

• Sonic boom Noise: 70-75 PldB

• Airport noise: ICAO Ch. 14 w/margin

• Cruise Nox Emissions <10 g/kg fuel

Technologies enabling supersonic transports that are

competitive in airline market with emphasis on high

efficiency and light weight for improved economics

Tech. for supersonic airline ATM

Vehicle Capabilities

• Airline economics

• Mach 1.3–1.6 overland, higher over water

• Range: 4,000–5,500 n.mi

• Passengers: 100–200

• Sonic boom Noise: 65–70 PldB

• Airport noise: 15 EPNdB below Ch. 14

• Cruise Nox Emissions <5 g/kg fuel

• Reduced particulates & H2O vapor


www.nasa.gov 13

Strategic Thrust 3a: Ultra-Efficient Commercial Vehicles–Subsonic Transport

2015 2025 2035

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Aircraft concepts & procedures that meet the

demands of airlines and flying public with

necessary fleet level efficiency gains to achieve

carbon neutral growth by 2020 (= 2005 level)

Aircraft concepts & procedures with revolutionary

improvements in operational and aircraft

efficiency to reduce carbon output of the fleet

below

2005 levels

Aircraft concepts & procedures with

transformational capabilities to enable 50

percent reduction (by 2050) in fleet-level carbon

output below 2005 levels

Ben

efi

ts

• Improvement of fleet efficiency by 1.5 percent

per year thru 2020

• Established technology path for achieving

carbon neutral growth

• Competitive R&D & manufacturing processes

for cost reduction

• Minimize need for market-based economic

measures

• Highly competitive, environmentally friendly

US aircraft products enabling carbon

neutrality

• Minimized effect of market based economic

measures for carbon neutrality on US

aviation industry

• Cost-effective, technology driven US

aviation products enabling continuation of

US leadership position

• 50 percent reduction of fleet level carbon

output by 2050 compared to 2005 levels

Cap

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Efficient manufacturing and development tools and

processes

Lower weight, drag, noise airframes

Higher propulsive and thermal efficiency for low

noise, Brayton cycle UHB turbofans

Limited supply of alternative fuels

Efficient manufacturing and development tools

and processes


Higher propulsive and thermal efficiency for low

noise, Brayton cycle UHB turbofans, perhaps

pervasive use of geared, LPR designs

Large supply of alternative fuels

Efficient manufacturing and development tools

and processes


Advanced propulsive cycles and associated

technologies for very low carbon output

High coupled and integrated wing body nacelle

aircraft configurations


www.nasa.gov 14

Strategic Thrust 3b: Ultra-Efficient Commercial Vehicles–Vertical Lift

2015 2025 2035

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Increased capability of vertical lift configurations

that promote economic benefits and improve

accessibility for new and current markets

New vertical lift configurations and technologies

introduced that enable new markets, increase

mobility, improve accessibility, and reduce

environmental impact

Vertical lift vehicles of all sizes used for

widespread transportation and services,

improved mobility and accessibility, with

economic benefits and low environmental

impact

Ben

efi

ts

Reduction in direct operating cost, increased

accessibility to noise-sensitive areas, and growth

in new and current markets enabled by

improvements to performance, efficiency and

noise.

New markets and applications enabled by unique

technologies and configurations. Mobility and

accessibility increased through reliable, safe and

quieter operation in a wider range of locations

and conditions.

Economic, environmental, and public benefits

realized through a spectrum of vertical lift

vehicle configurations that provide services,

transportation, and unique mission capability.

Cap

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NA

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Generation 1 Capabilities:

• Validated tool for modeling noise from entire

vehicle

• Validated tools for multi-discipline vehicle

design, analysis and optimization

• Tools for mission analysis and configuration

trade studies

• Technologies for pilot workload reduction

• Design for improved turbomachinery efficiency

• Approach for high power-transmission

efficiency established

• Lower drag for increased speed, range,

payload and lower fuel burn


• Process to characterize and predict human

response to noise

• Validated tool to calculate acoustic footprint

in real-time

• Efficient alternative propulsion options

• On-board systems to enhance safe

operations in icing conditions, degraded

visual environments and confined or urban

areas

• Validated, high-fidelity computational

algorithms for full configuration simulations

• Tools for mission analysis and CONOPS of

unconventional configurations


• Best practices for integration of lift and

propulsion systems

• Methods for real-time low-noise operations

• Active and prognostic condition-based

maintenance systems to reduce life-cycle

costs

• Methodology to analytically certify

composite primary structure for loads and

impact response

• Advanced experimental methods for

ground and flight test validation of

configurations


www.nasa.gov 15

Strategic Thrust 4a: Transition to Low-Carbon Propulsion-Enable Use of Alternative Jet Fuel

2015 2025 2035

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Introduction of Low-carbon Fuels for Conventional

Engines and Exploration of Alternative Propulsion

Systems

Initial Introduction of Alternative Propulsion

Systems

Introduction of Alternative Propulsion Systems

to Aircraft of All Sizes

Ben

efi

ts

• Physics-based tools & concepts optimizing use

of drop-in fuels at ≤ 50% alt fuel blend (current

cert.)

• Tools (physics-based) for identifying potential of

>50% blends

• Techniques & measurement system methods to

enable informed decisions on standards of

emissions

• Concepts available for optimizing use of drop-

in fuels for 50-100% alt fuel blends

• Identify feasibility & potential of non-

conventional (non-drop-in) fuel concepts

• Alternative aircraft/propulsion system

concepts utilizing non-conventional fuels

available for consideration

Cap

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• Lab-scale experimental/validation & analytical

data of combustion & combustion products

• Quantified ground & in-flight engine emissions

& contrail data from use of standard &

alternative jet fuels

• Advanced measurement techniques for engine

& combustion rig emissions

• Physics-based combustion & contrail formation

models including alternative jet fuel effects

• Combustion & combustor concepts leveraging

attributes of alternative jet fuels

• Physics-based combustion & combustor

models with verified effects of alternative jet

fuels in 50-100% blends

• Combustion & combustor concepts optimized

for drop-in fuels in 50-100% blends

• Contrail microphysics model for predicting

effects of increased combustion efficiency &

fuel hydrogen content

• Combustion & combustor concepts for non-

drop-in fuels


www.nasa.gov 16

Strategic Thrust 4b: Transition to Low-Carbon Propulsion-Enabling Electric/

Hybrid Electric Propulsion

2015 2025 2035

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Introduction of Low-carbon Fuels for Conventional

Engines and Exploration of Alternative Propulsion

Systems

Initial Introduction of Alternative Propulsion

Systems

Introduction of Alternative Propulsion Systems

to Aircraft of All Sizes

Ben

efi

ts

• Established experience and knowledge base

allowing for industry investment and market

growth

• Certified operational aircraft in limited

applications/markets

• Improved fuel economy and lower carbon

emissions in limited applications

• Improved acoustics

• Improved fuel economy

• Low carbon emissions

• Lower operating costs

• Enhanced safety

Cap

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• Electrified Turbofan designs

• HEP PAI and DEP concepts

• Advanced electric machines & power

electronics

• Integrated electric and turbine controls

• Advanced energy storage technology

• Advanced power transmission and

management technology

• Small aircraft and vertical lift flight demos

• Thin haul commuter flight demo

• Power and propulsion system integrated test

beds

• Modeling, sizing, design and analysis tools

• Medium size vertical lift flight demos

• Electric air vehicle certification

• Experience designing, building and operating a

variety of small electric and HEP aircraft and

vertical lift vehicles

• An array of Government and Industry

development and test facilities

• Optimized architectures

• Optimized flight operations

• Improved energy storage

• Advanced materials applied to HEP

• High fidelity models

• Single aisle transport flight demo

• Large vertical lift flight demo

• Extensive experience designing, building and

operating electric and HEP aircraft and

vertical lift vehicles

• Industry has full design and test capability

• Increased & more flexible control


www.nasa.gov 17

Strategic Thrust 5: Real-time System-Wide Safety Assurance

2015 2025 2035

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Doman Specific (Real-time) Safety Monitoring and

Alerting Tools

Integrated Predictive Technologies with Domain

Level ApplicationAdaptive Real-time Safety Threat Management

Ben

efi

ts

Expanded system awareness through increased

access to safety relevant data and integrated

analysis capability; improved safety through initial

real-time detection and alerting of hazards at the

domain level and decision support for limited

operations

NAS-wide availability of real-time detection and

alerting with initial assured decision support for

mitigation response selection

Integrated detection, alerting and decision

support tools; adaptive human-automation

teaming for optimum threat management

Cap

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• Safe/normal operation baseline

• Initial continuous real-time monitoring

• Real-time anomaly and precursor identification

• Real-time alerting of safety hazards

• Mitigation response capability for selected

applications

• Integrated system-level continuous monitoring

in system-wide architecture

• Assured access and analysis of secure data

• Trustworthy decision support tools

• Proactive safety assurance under uncertainty

• Real-time intelligent safety monitoring

• In-time integrated threat detection, prediction

and mitigation process in a high dynamic

environment

• Predictive safety-case for highly-automated

and evolving aviation systems


www.nasa.gov 18

Strategic Thrust 6: Assured Autonomy for Aviation Transformation

2015 2025 2035

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Introduction of aviation systems with

bounded autonomy, capable of carrying

out function-level goals

Introduction of aviation systems with flexible

autonomy based on earned levels of trust,

capable of carrying out mission-level goals

Introduction of distributed collaborative aviation

systems with assured autonomy, capable of

carrying out policy-level goals

Ben

efi

ts

• Efficiency and NAS capacity

• Increased robustness and resilience in

operations

• Enhanced vehicle performance

• Initial UAS applications benefits

• Increased NASA system flexibility, efficiency

and capacity

• Prognostic safety

• New vehicles designed to leverage autonomy

• Reduced costs at all levels

• Multi-vehicle UAS applications benefits

• Extreme flexibility and adaptability for large-

scale systems, with extreme levels of

reliability and recovery from disturbances

• Advanced prognostic safety

• Further reduced costs at all levels

Cap

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• Advanced prescribed automation and initial

goal-directed and adaptive automation

• Initial world views from local sensors and limited

data exchange

• Applied to aviation system components and

small-scale systems.

• Predominantly human-supervised; higher levels

of machine independence under carefully

controlled conditions

• Mission-level goal-directed adaptive

automation

• Large-scale detailed world views using

advanced sensors and networks

• Applied to large-scale integrated systems

• Human/machine teams with many levels of

control, depending on specific situations;

extensive machine-based learning

• Campaign-level goal-directed adaptive

automation, embedded within all system

elements

• Adaptive collaboration based on extensive

shared world views

• Highly distributed large-scale collaborative

systems that constitute integral parts of

larger systems they support

• Human/machine teams, with humans

primarily specifying strategic goals; many

stems self-protect and self-heal

SIP ALIGNED PROGRAM / PROJECT

PLANNING PRIORITIES

www.nasa.gov 19

Planning Priorities

• Thrust 1 – Safe, Efficient Growth in Global Operations

- Transition from Terminal Area optimization to Gate-toGate TBO

• Secure FAA and industry support for the progression of current NextGen

plans to the initial and full deployment of TBO beyond the 2020

• Plan for the acceleration of Gate-to-Gate, 4D Trajectory Based Operations

(TBO) to enable the achievement of the full NextGen Air Traffic Management

(ATM) vision

• Develop initial SMART-NAS testbed requirements and capabilities to support

TBO and Real-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance

• Thrust 2 – Innovation in Commercial Supersonic Aircraft

- Initiate Low Boom Flight Demonstrator Project

• Transition management of the Low Boom Flight Demonstrator (LBFD) to IASP

in FY 2016.

• Develop Project and Technical plans and refine cost and schedule estimates

• Develop Commercial Supersonic Technology project objectives, technical

content, and funding requirements for FY 2017 to FY 2023. Study of near and

far term approaches to enabling low carbon supersonic operations.

www.nasa.gov 20

Planning Priorities

• Thrust 3 – Ultra Efficient Commercial Vehicles

– Initiate planning for Flight Demonstration of N+2 / N+3 configurations and technologies

• Develop approach and plans for a suite of ultra-efficient subsonic transports;

initiate industry studies

• Develop analysis, ground test, and other risk reduction activities to support the

development of New Aviation Horizon’s (NAH) X-planes

– Develop plans for research and ground demonstration of small core engine technologies

– Develop plans for research and technology development for flex fuel combustors that

operate at higher alternative fuel fractions. In addition, planning should anticipate

supporting the community with additional alternative fuel characterization tests

– Develop plans to fully implement CFD 2030

– Additional Planning Elements

• Develop a strategic outlook for structures and materials beyond Advanced

Composites Project (ACP) completion

• Develop a strategic outlook on key vertical lift research and partnerships that

benefit U.S. industry while incorporating new opportunities in hybrid/all electric

propulsion, autonomy, and low noise small vehicles

• Thrust 4 – Transition to Low Carbon Propulsion

– Develop baseline plans for hybrid-electric propulsion research and development,

consistent with Thrust 4 roadmapping, including technical challenges that utilize

research results from small-scale demos, such as SCEPTOR

www.nasa.gov 21

Planning Priorities

• Thrust 5 - Real-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance

– Develop a comprehensive assessment of ARMD’s Verification

and Validation (V&V) efforts

– Develop initial, focused TCs and funding requirements to

implement the Thrust 5 roadmap

• Thrust 6 - Assured Autonomy for Aviation Transformation

– Develop a cohesive framework and strategy for achieving full

integration of UAS into the NAS (AOSP & IASP)

– Develop initial, focused TCs and funding requirements

(beyond current funded UAS TCs) to implement the Thrust 6

roadmap

www.nasa.gov 22

Thank You

www.nasa.gov 23

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