NAND Flash and The Future of Enterprise Storage• Enterprise-Grade SSD: 2007: ... -TDK -...
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NAND Flash and The Future of Enterprise StorageEnabling Products or Enabling Profits?
John MonroeResearch Vice President
Gartner Storage Group
Joseph UnsworthResearch Director
Gartner Semiconductor Group
IDEMA DISKCONSeptember 2008
He who foretells the future lies, even if he tells the truth.—Arab Proverb
Infinitely self-similar,never the same…
Mobile
Desktop
Enterprise
Where Do We Come From? What are We? Where Are We Going?
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Why SSDs in the Enterprise?
• HDDs have made enormous advances in capacity, cost per GB and reliability but much more limited advances in performance.
• With HDDs, enterprise IOPS per GB have actually declined.• There will be a growing need for “storage network accelerators” (SNAs) in
a variety of enterprise applications.
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Key Issues1. What are the key market trends and applications fueling data growth?
2. What are the storage technologies and architectures that best address the complexity, cost and environmental challenges faced by IT professionals?
3. What are the current NAND flash industry dynamics?
This image can serve as a kind of metaphor for “seamless integration,” reflecting a coalescence of storage systems that can—with endless, scalable replication, simplicity and beauty—“solve” the problem of infinity at every edge.
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The Evolving Storage Landscape
• The Internet has one key purpose: The quick transport of digital data in multiple forms to multiple locations. All other uses have evolved from that initial aim.
• Increased storage at any point in the World Wide Web increases the possibilities for storage in every part of the Web. We are only beginning to see the enormous implications of that simple sentence.
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Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies
Source: Gartner June 2008“Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies, 2008” (G00158208)
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HDDs and SSDs in the Enterprise:A Spectrum of Opportunity
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5.4K/7.2K-RPM HDDs
10K/15K-RPM HDDs
Enterprise-Grade SSDs
• High Capacity SATA HDDs: 2007 – 11.48M Units 2012 -- 16.82M Units
• High-Performance FC/SAS HDDs: 2007 – 29.86M Units 2012 – 37.16M Units
• Enterprise-Grade SSDs: 2007 -- 473K Units 2012 – 7.2M Units
Total Multiuser Markets
Units (M)
He who foretells the future lies,even if he tells the truth.
—Arab Proverb
SATAHDDs
FC/SASHDDs
SSDs
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From the Consumer to the Data Center:The Management of Complexity is Complex• New dimensions in corporate and personal computing will demand (among
other things)…
- More storage capacity and quick, seamless access to enormous databases
- More cost-effective and power-efficient storage infrastructures
- More degrees of data security and more widespread uses of data encryption
- Better archiving and disaster recovery systems
- Better data management and enterprise content management
- Better compliance strategies
- Better IT operations to respond to enhanced SLAs
Both HDDs and SSDs will play key roles in the future management of storage complexity.
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Flash Landscape & Enterprise-Grade SSD Demands
• WHY SSD in ‘Tier 0’ Storage?- To Replace HDD For Performance, NOT Storage
100X+ Read Performance10X+ Write Performance
- Power Efficiency, Thermal Resistivity, Reliability
• Not All Flash is Created Equal: SLC vs. MLC- SLC Twice As Fast, 10X Endurance Cycles…BUT- SLC is $6/GB vs. $1.50/GB for MLC- 93% Current NAND Output Is MLC
• SLC NAND Flash Attributes:- Very Low Latency Reads: (~50us)- Relatively Slow Writes: (>200us)- Limited Endurance Cycles: Ranging from 100K-2M
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Corporate Interest in SSD is Growing
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Sun Microsystems ZFS Hybrid Pool Example (From IDF Shanghai)
Same $ Budget Spent
RESULT
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Enterprise-Grade SSD: New Perspectives
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
3.5" SSD2.5" SSD1.8" SSD
Enterprise-Grade SSD SegmentationUnits (M) 2012
256GB E-Grade SSD is ~$500 OEM Price
256GB PC SSD is ~$50(Read Applications)
New Form Factors- NAND DIMM- Sub-1.8” Disc- Others Evolve
• Enterprise-Grade SSD: 2007: 473K Units, $157.4M 2012: 7.2M Units, $1.4B
- 2007 Enterprise-Grade SSD Sales Breakdown: • Netcom: 36%, Enterprise Storage: 19%, Industrial/Military: 40%, Medical: 5%
- 2012 Enterprise-Grade SSD Sales Breakdown:• Netcom: 22%, Enterprise Storage: 65%, Industrial/Military: 12%, Medical: 1%
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Controller Enables Enhanced SSD Functionality• Multiple Channel Support for Optimizing NAND
Interleaving (8,16, and more Channels)• Advanced Wear-Leveling Algorithms• Bad Block Management: 8bit,12bit+ ECC/EDC• Native SATA, Fiber Channel, PCIe SupportController Leaders Controller Challengers
SSD Suppliers- STEC- SanDisk- Toshiba- Micron/Lexar- Mtron- Samsung- Intel- HyperStone- SST
- Silicon Motion- Phison- Marvell- LSI Logic- TDK- InComm- SkyMedi- Many, Many Custom Solutions
- STEC- Smart Modular- SanDisk- Toshiba- Samsung- Intel- Imation/Mtron- Micron- BitMicro- Fusion IO
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SSD Vendor Competitive Positioning
18%
5%
20%
5% 17%7%
2%
2%
5%
2%17%
Samsung
STEC
SanDisk
Adtron
SmartModular
BitMicro
mtron
Hagiwara
Apacer
SiSystems
Others
2007 Leaders- Samsung Takes #1 Position behind PC SSD Sales- STEC Main Focus on non-PC SSD Segment- SanDisk Mix of both PC and non-PC Segment
Beware the Flood Of New Entrants
• Key Players: Intel, Toshiba, Micron, Seagate, etc
• Currently Over 70 SSD vendors- Most Will Fail
• Controller Essential for Quality- Leaders: STEC, SanDisk, Toshiba, Intel, Samsung, Marvell, SIMO, Phison, but many developing own solutions.
2007 SSD Market ShareTotal Market = $259.6 Million
Note: Excludes Some Low-Cost Discrete NAND Solutions embedded on the PCB
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Preliminary 3Q08 Update: NAND Oversupply for 18 Months!
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1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q0990%
95%
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NAND Flash Supply NAND Flash Demand Sufficiency
Billions ofMegabytes
Supply/DemandSufficiency
Short-Term Supply/Demand Sufficiency
2007: 101.5% = Oversupply2008: 103.5% = Oversupply2009: 99.2% = Shortage
Source: Adjusted: Gartner September, 2008“NAND Flash Supply and Demand, Worldwide, 1Q07-4Q09: 3Q08”
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Capacity Increases Despite Losses
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Q10
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Q20
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Q30
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Q40
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Q20
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Q40
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300mm200mm
Wafers (Thousands 200mm Eq.)300mm Capacity Is a Costly
Necessity in Commodity NAND
Limited Revenue Growth…2006 +12.5%2007 +14.8%2008E -10.1%
…Yet Spending Continues!2007 CapEx $11.5B, +30%2008 CapEX $9.46B, -17%2009 CapEx $10.41B, +9.5% Further Declines Likely Given Losses
And More to Come, Despite recent Delays…
-300mm Capacity Grows from 40% in 1Q07 to 70% in Q408
- Every Major Vendor has a 300mm Fab Ramp in 2009Source: Gartner August, 2008
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NAND Flash Market Forecast: 2008 Collapse, Recovery 2H09/2010
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CAGR 07-12Gigabytes (M) 64.1 229.3 703.1 1,945 4,684 10,415 22,074 42,022 75,101 107.7%Bit Growth 222% 258% 207% 177% 141% 122% 112% 90% 79%
Rev
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(Bill
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of D
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12.5%14.8%
-10.1%15.1%
69.6%
19.5%
CAGR07-12
ASP 1GB eqv. 109.4 52.1 19.1 7.94 2.97 1.54 0.87 0.43 0.25 -49.8%ASP Change -47.4% -52.3% -63.3% -58.5% -62.7% -48.2% -43.6% -50.0% -41.6%
NAND Revenue -4.9%
70.6%
4.4%CAPEX Spend
2007$11.5B, +30%
2008E$9.26B, -19%
2009E$9.71B, +5%
Going Negative
Likely Down~15%
Source: Gartner, August 2008Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide--Forecast Database [SEQS-WW-DB-DATA]
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A Few Inconclusive Conclusions
• NAND flash will be the "tip of the iceberg" —HDDs will power the massive bulk of storage content hidden in the "ocean" of available data.
• Technology providers and end users must realize that a spectrum of opportunity in emerging applications is far more compelling than any kindof disruptive battlefield.
• Alliances between HDD and NAND flash technology providers should serve to enlarge the library of forms in which storage is a necessary element, thereby enhancing the variety and valueof storage products and services.
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Thank You for Your Time And Attention
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http://www.sandisk.com/Products/Catalog(1135)-SanDisk_RSMMC_Reduced_Size_MultiMediaCard.aspx
NAND Flash and The Future of Enterprise StorageEnabling Products or Enabling Profits?Why SSDs in the Enterprise?Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware TechnologiesHDDs and SSDs in the Enterprise:A Spectrum of OpportunityFrom the Consumer to the Data Center:The Management of Complexity is ComplexCorporate Interest in SSD is GrowingEnterprise-Grade SSD: New PerspectivesSSD Vendor Competitive PositioningPreliminary 3Q08 Update: NAND Oversupply for 18 Months!Capacity Increases Despite LossesNAND Flash Market Forecast: 2008 Collapse, Recovery 2H09/2010A Few Inconclusive ConclusionsThank You for Your Time And Attention