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Name of presenter(s) or subtitle

Russian Media Market:Trends and Forecasts

Ruslan Tagiev,

TNS Russia

September 26-27, 2005

2© 2005, TNS Gallup Media

Advertising expenditures in Russia ($, bln)

Source: AKAR

1.4 1.4

0.6 0.81.3

2.2

3.9

2.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

-59% +41% +65% +65% +31% +33%- 4%


Advertising expenditures + Forecast ($, bln)

Source: AKAR

1.4 1.4

0.6 0.81.3

2.2

3.9

6.45.9

5.34.7

2.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

-59% +41%+65%

+65%+31%

+33%

- 4%

+21%

+14%

+11%

+8%


44.1%

31.1%

18.4%

5.2%

TV

Press

Radio

Outdoor

Ad expenditures media split, 2004

Source: AKAR


Share of TV advertising ($, bln)

Source: AKAR

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

other mediaTV

1.4 1.4

0.6 0.81.3

2.2

2.9

3.9

4.75.3

5.96.4

39% 35% 32% 34% 39%42%

43%44% 45% 47%

49% 50%


Share of Regional TV + Forecast ($, bln)

Source: AKAR

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

regionalnational

0.91.2

1.7

2.1

2.52.9

3.2

77%77%

76%

75%74%

72%71%

23%

23%

24%

25%

26%28%

29%


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Advertising editions

Magazines

Newspapers

0.80.9

1.2

1.41.5

1.7

1.8

Advertising expenditures on Press + Forecast ($, bln)

Source: AKAR

44% 42% 40% 39% 38% 37% 37%34% 37%

39%40%

42%43% 44%

22%21%

21%

21%20%

20%19%


Share of Regional Press + Forecast ($, bln)

Source: AKAR

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2002 2003 2004

National

Regional

21%22%

23%

0.8

0.9

1.2


Top 10 Advertised Categories, SOV % (TV, Radio, Press,Outdoor, Cinema)

Source: TNS Gallup AdFact

cellular communication

soft drinks

detergents and cleansers

beer

dairy products

hair care products

cell phones

chocolate products

auto

shows & entertainment

2.3%

6.5%

5.6%

2.9%

3.5%

2.8%

0.6%

6.3%

2.2%

2.2%

January-June 2000 6.9%

6.3%

6.1%

5.2%

4.4%

3.9%

3.0%

3.0%

2.9%

2.7%

January-June 2005

New!

New!

New!


Advertising increase drivers

11 510 11 760 11 967 12 433 12 00612 511

13 323

14 722 15 018

10 535 10 847

40%

44% 44%41%

44%

38%

42%

47%

37%38%

49%

2000/1 2000/2 2001/1 2001/2 2002/1 2002/2 2003/1 2003/2 2004/1 2004/2 2005/1

Number of advertisers Share of top-20 advertisers, $



SOV, %

1Procter & Gamble

7.6

2 L`Oreal 3.6

3 Unilever 3.2

4 Wimm-Bill-Dann* 2.7

5 Nestle 2.7

6 Henkel Group 2.5

7 Mars 2.4

8 Danone 2.3

9 MTS 1.7

10 Wrigley 1.7

Top 10 Advertisers in Russia, January-June 2005


* Local advertisers are highlighted


SOV, %

1 Wimm-Bill-Dann 2.7

2 MTS 1.7

3 Bee Line 1.6

4 Lebedyansky 1.2

5 Baltika 1.1

6 Nefis Cosmetics 0.9

7 Kalina 0.6

8 Gemini-Film 0.6

9 Eldorado 0.6

10 Multon 0.6

Top 10 Russian Advertisers, January-June 2005



SOV, %

1 Mercury 2.6

2 L`Oreal 2.6

3 Procter & Gamble 1.7

4Samsung Electronics

1.2

5Toyota Motor Corp.

1.2

6 Volkswagen 1.2

7 BeFree 1.2

8 Don-Stroy 1.0

9 Bee Line 0.8

10 LG Electronics 0.7

Top 10 Advertisers in Press, January-June 2005



Increase in top 5 titles in each group, 2004 vs. 2003


+19%

+11%

+23%+21%

+23%

Automagazines

top-5

Advertisingeditions

top-5

Men'smagazines

top-5

Women'smagazines

top-5

Businessweeklies

top-5

TOTALNewspapers

Dailynewspapers

top-5

+28% +29%

TOTALMagazines

+34%


Time Spent Distribution Across Media

100% = all the time spent media consumption (9 hours per day)

TV: 46.6%

Press: 4.7%

Radio: 41%Audio records: 3.1%

Books: 2.5%Video, DVD: 1.4%

Internet: 0.8%

Source: Marketing Index – Russia, Dec’04 – Apr’05

© 2005, TNS Gallup Media

Time budget (Russia)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Reading magazines

Reading newspapers

Reading books

Source: Marketing Index – Russia, Dec’04 – Apr’05

Morning Night


79.783.4

88.9

88.1

85.8

84.581.9

79.6

67.4

83.8

76.8

84.6

69.682.0

87.6

81.7

80.5

all 16+

men

women

16-1920-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-6465+

high education

lower education

unemployedemployed

lower income

average income

higher income

(Moscow, all titles AIR %)

Total Readership Profile(Russia, all national titles AIR %)

62.067.1

73.7

74.7

72.3

70.264.8

58.0

41.5

74.1

57.4

69.8

46.267.7

79.3

64.9

61.4

all 16+

men

women

16-1920-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-6465+

high education

lower education

unemployedemployed

lower income

average income

higher income

Source: National Readership Survey, March-July 2005


76.479.9

70.5

67.7

70.6

79.483.3

87.1

82.6

80.8

79.6

77.5

78.278.6

78.7

78.4

77.0

all 16+

men

women

16-1920-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-6465+

high education

lower education

unemployedemployed

lower income

average income

higher income

(Moscow, Average Daily Reach%)

Total TV Audience Profile(Russia, Average Daily Reach%)

75.880.4

71.3

65.8

72.3

77.782.3

88.1

85.8

80.3

78.8

78.1

80.278.4

75.0

78.3

77.8

all 16+

men

women

16-1920-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-6465+

high education

lower education

unemployedemployed

lower income

average income

higher income

Source: Gallup TV Index, 2005


26.722.9

21.8

22.1

23.0

27.226.7

28.3

21.4

28.3

20.7

27.1

18.924.6

28.1

24.7

22.6

all 16+

men

women

16-1920-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-6465+

high education

lower education

unemployedemployed

lower income

average income

higher income

(Moscow, Daily Newspapers AIR %)

Newspapers vs. Magazines Audience Profile, Moscow(Moscow, Monthly Magazines AIR %)

51.654.5

78.8

73.2

66.2

58.649.5

39.1

21.8

58.5

43.4

58.9

28.550.9

69.7

50.0

53.2all 16+

men

women

16-1920-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-6465+

high education

lower education

unemployedemployed

lower income

average income

higher income



11.28.8

7.1

7.6

8.9

10.911.7

12.1

8.8

8.3

7.9

11.1

6.310.2

13.3

9.8

13.9

all 16+

men

women

16-1920-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-6465+

high education

lower education

unemployedemployed

lower income

average income

higher income

(Russia, Daily Newspapers AIR %)

Newspapers vs. Magazines Audience Profile, Russia(Russia, Monthly Magazines AIR %)

26.532.5

47.1

44.8

36.9

32.125.5

18.5

10.7

26.1

25.6

32.6

13.929.8

48.3

39.7

29.8all 16+

men

women

16-1920-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-6465+

high education

lower education

unemployedemployed

lower income

average income

higher income



19.3%

17.9%17.9%

17.0%16.3%

16.7%17.3%17.6%17.5%

Dec'02 -Apr'03

Mar'03 -Jul'03

May'03 -Oct'03

Dec'03 -Apr'04

Mar'04 -Jul'04

May'04 -Oct'04

Sep'04 -Feb'05

Dec'04 -Apr'05

Mar'05 -Jul'05

Women’s magazines

Groups of Titles with Increasing Audience (Russia)

4.0%3.8%3.9%3.6%3.5%

3.2%

2.3%2.3%2.3%

Dec'02 -Apr'03

Mar'03 -Jul'03

May'03 -Oct'03

Dec'03 -Apr'04

Mar'04 -Jul'04

May'04 -Oct'04

Sep'04 -Feb'05

Dec'04 -Apr'05

Mar'05 -Jul'05

Men’s magazines

Source: National Readership Survey - Russia


9.4%9.5%9.4%9.3%9.0%9.1%

6.6%6.3%6.7%

Dec'02 -Apr'03

Mar'03 -Jul'03

May'03 -Oct'03

Dec'03 -Apr'04

Mar'04 -Jul'04

May'04 -Oct'04

Sep'04 -Feb'05

Dec'04 -Apr'05

Mar'05 -Jul'05

Daily newspapers

Groups of Titles with Stable Audience (Russia)

2.6%2.8%2.9%2.6%2.7%

3.1%

1.8%1.8%1.9%

Dec'02 -Apr'03

Mar'03 -Jul'03

May'03 -Oct'03

Dec'03 -Apr'04

Mar'04 -Jul'04

May'04 -Oct'04

Sep'04 -Feb'05

Dec'04 -Apr'05

Mar'05 -Jul'05

Business weeklies



4.0%4.3%

4.9%

4.0%3.8%4.0%

2.9%2.9%2.8%

Dec'02 -Apr'03

Mar'03 -Jul'03

May'03 -Oct'03

Dec'03 -Apr'04

Mar'04 -Jul'04

May'04 -Oct'04

Sep'04 -Feb'05

Dec'04 -Apr'05

Mar'05 -Jul'05

Computer magazines

Computer and Auto Magazines (Russia)

16.0% 16.0% 15.8%

20.0%

18.4% 18.7%20.1%

21.1%20.1%

Dec'02 -Apr'03

Mar'03 -Jul'03

May'03 -Oct'03

Dec'03 -Apr'04

Mar'04 -Jul'04

May'04 -Oct'04

Sep'04 -Feb'05

Dec'04 -Apr'05

Mar'05 -Jul'05

Auto magazines



«Age Pyramid» - RF Census 1989

Ths. persons

Age1890

1900

1960

1940

1950

1970

1910

1980

1930

1920

Year of Birth

Birth-rate: 1st World WarDeath-rate: 2nd World War

Birth-rate: famine, collectivization

Birth-rate: «1st war wave»

Birth-rate: «2nd war wave»

Men Women

Source: Goscomstat RF


«Age Pyramid» - RF Census 2002

Ths. persons

Age

Birth-rate: 1st World WarDeath-rate: 2nd World War

Birth-rate: famine, collectivization

Birth-rate: «1st war wave»

Birth-rate: «2nd war wave»

Men Women1910

1920

1980

1960

1970

1990

1930

2000

1950

1940

Year of Birth

Birth-rate: «3rd war wave»;

Birth-rate: Perestroyka reforms


Summary


Рост рекламного рынка на 36% до 2008 года

Замедление темпов роста рекламного рынка

Рост доли ТВ

Рост аудитории глянцевых журналов, стабильная аудитория газет и безнес изданий

Увеличение конкуренции со стороны новых медиа

Увеличение доли бюджетов на интернет, кино, indoor

Увеличение аудитории интернета – прямая конкуренция для b-t-b, рекламных и новостных изданий

Изменение демографического состава

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