NADP Ammonia Workshop Washington, DC October 23,...
32
1 Ammonia Regulation – Are We Ready? NADP Ammonia Workshop Washington, DC October 23, 2003 Dave Mitchell Planning Manager San Joaquin Valley APCD
Transcript of NADP Ammonia Workshop Washington, DC October 23,...
1
Ammonia Regulation –Are We Ready?
NADP Ammonia Workshop Washington, DCOctober 23, 2003
Dave MitchellPlanning Manager
San Joaquin Valley APCD
2
California Air Basins
• California has 15 air basins
• SJV Air District largest in state
• 25,000 sq. mi.
• 250 mi by 80 mi
• 3.3 million people
• Nation’s no. 1 ag region
3
Importance of Agriculture to the San Joaquin Valley
• 250 commodities
• $13 billion/year
• 15% US veg prod.
• 38% US fruit prod.
• No. 1 Dairy County in US – Tulare, No. 2 Merced, No. 3 Stanislaus
4
San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Statusn Severe Nonattainment for federal 1-
hour ozone, Serious for 24-hour PM10, and annual PM10 standards
n Expect to be designated nonattainment for the federal 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 standards
5
Regulatory Pressuresn 2003 PM10 Plan commitment to control
ammonia if research indicates it would expedite attainment
n PM2.5 attainment plan due in late 2007
n State mandated CAFO air regulations deadline for District adoption July 2005 (PM10 and precursors)
n California Environmental Quality Act Environmental Impact Reports
6
What do elected boards need to help make decisions?
n Assurance that “sound science” was used to identify the cause of the problem
n Evidence that the proposed solution will be effective
n Knowledge that stakeholder concerns, including scientific ones, have been addressed
7
What do Board members dislike about science in the regulatory process?n The time required to complete
research – results too laten Making decisions when substantial
uncertainty remainsn Worst case – faulty conclusions result
in adopting costly regulation that provides little or no benefits to public health (or the opposite)
8
Extent of Ammonium Nitrate and Sulfate Jan 01 Episode
n Bakersfield 96 µg/m3 7 µg/m3
n Hanford 94 7n Fresno 74 4n Modesto 84 7n Nitrate high throughout the basin in
urban and rural areas
Nitrate Sulfate
9
Winter PM10 Season
Valley Fog Conditions • Strong, low inversions for long periods
• Light winds
• Low temps
• Woodsmoke, ammonia and NOx abundant
• Fugitive dust if no precipitation
10
SJVAB Ammonia Inventoryn Dairy 240 t/dn Poultry 46 t/dn Beef 40 t/dn Composting 15 t/dn Fertilizers 15 t/dn Soil – Natural and Ag 14 t/dn Other Livestock 9 t/dn Domestic 5 t/dn Motor Vehicles 5 t/dn Landfill 3 t/dn Other 6 t/d
o Total 397 t/d
11
Dairy Ammonia Sources
Cow feeding and collection areas
Anaerobic lagoon
Manure Management
12
CAFO Emission Issuesn Need process based emission factors
o Identify each emission point
o Identify processes and conditions allowing ammonia to volatize
o Identify environmental factors and management practices that cause emissions to vary
n Cross media impacts
o Ensure measures that reduce air emissions do not increase water contamination
13
CAFO Control Issuesn Percentage of ammonia volatized
immediately after urine hits the groundn Does limiting nitrogen content of feed
impact animal productivity?
n Keeping ammonia in solution during cleanup of wet manure
n Lagoon water pH control – does this just delay release?
n Is indoor composting of manure really feasible on a large scale?
14
Aerosol Modeling Issues
n Attempted UAM-Aero modeling for 2003 PM10 Plan
n Calif. Regional Particulate Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) data not available for modeling
n Used IMS-95 dataset with much lower PM10 and nitrate episodes than 2001
n Results were mixed
15
PM on January 05, 1996
16
PM on January 06, 1996
17
Bakersfield – Van Horn School
18
Kern Wildlife Refuge
19
Fresno – Einstein Park
20
Southwest of Chowchilla
21
Findings based on UAM-Aeron O3 performance satisfactory except for
Bakersfield where we see an “O3 hole”n Nitrate performance satisfactory
n Over-prediction of sulfate and carbonaceous PM in urban areas but satisfactory in rural areas
n Severe under prediction of HNO3
n Performance for NH3, NO, and NO2 mixed
22
Sensitivity of NitrateJan. 05, 1996
23
Sensitivity of NitrateJan. 06, 1996
24
Sensitivity Scenarios for Nitrate
25
26
27
28
Major Features of Carrying Capacity Diagramsn Up to 50% precursor reductions
o Least responsive to VOC reductionso Rural sites are NOx limited
o Response is nearly linearn Beyond 50% precursor reductions
o Sites behave as expectedo Response not linear
29
Is NH3 limitation at Bakersfield real?n Emissions
o Significant amount of NOxemissions in area
o No large sources of NH3(inventory not verified)
n Measurementso 0.25 to 0.3 µmole/m3 of excess
NH3
30
Questions Raised by the Resultsn Is the ammonia inventory understating
emissions from a source in areas showing a deficiency?
n Is the model inaccurately depicting the atmospheric chemistry?
n Do both the inventory and model have critical flaws?
n What causes the non-linearity of NOx to nitrate formation?
n What happens at 100 µg/m3 nitrate?
31
Resolutionn Ammonia measurements most convincing
evidence of excessn Weight of evidence supports NOx only
control strategyn Used 1.5/1 NOx/nitrate ratio in rollbackn CRPAQS final reports due in 2005n Ammonia inventory improvements for
CAFOs underwayn 2005 PM10 Plan update, PM2.5 and regional
haze plans will revisit this issuen Is the San Joaquin Valley ready for
ammonia control? - no
32
Contact Information
o Dave MitchellSJVAPCD1990 E. Gettysburg Ave.Fresno, CA 93726
o 559-230-5800
o Email [email protected]
San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control DistrictSan Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District
