College Admission Counseling 2015: Trends, Resources, and PolicyDavid Hawkins, National Association for College Admission Counseling

Top Five: I. Trends in College Admission

II. New & Noteworthy: Counselor Resources

III. Counselor advocacy

Who is NACAC anyway?

Presentation Overview

Top 5 Trends in College Admission

1. Number of High School Graduates: Actual and Projected

1975

-76

1977

-78

1979

-80

1981

-82

1983

-84

1985

-86

1987

-88

1989

-90

1991

–92

1993

–94

1995

–96

1997

–98

1999

–00

2001

–02

2003

–04

2005

–06

2007

–08

2009

–10

2011

–12

2013

–14

2015

–16

2017

-18

2019

-20

2021

-22

2023

-24

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Num

ber o

f stu

dent

s (th

ousa

nds)

Note: Includes both public and private high school graduates.Source: US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2013). Digest of Education Statistics. (Table 210.10).

Peak 3.45 million in 2011-12

Actual and Projected Numbers of Public High School Graduates, by Region: 1999–00, 2009–10 and 2023–24

(in thousands)

SOURCE: US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2013). Digest of Education Statistics. (Table 219.20).

Northeast Midwest South West -

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

454

648

861

591 557

727

1,105

740

501

674

1,212

778

1999-00(actual)

2009-10(actual)

2023-24(projected)

2. Applications: Percentage of Students Submitting Three or More and Seven or More Applications, 1990 to 2013

SOURCE: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA. Annual The American Freshman reports.

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

61 60 62 63 62 61 62 61 63 64 67 67 67 70 68 71 71 71 74 75 77 79 77 81

9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 16 16 17 18 19 22 23 25 29 2832

Submitted three or more applications Submitted seven or more applications

Perc

enta

ge o

f stu

dent

s

3. Trends in Average Acceptance Rate at Four-Year Colleges

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201358.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

69.6

71.470.7

71.4

69.8

67.9 68.1

66.5 66.566.0

67.1

68.7

69.769.0

68.267.2

66.3 66.565.8

63.7 63.763.0 62.8 63.2

Public Private

Note: The list of colleges was drawn from the 2002-2013 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) using the online IPEDS Data Center. For each year of data, institutions were selected using the following criteria: US location, four-year, not-for-profit, baccalaureate degree-granting, and Title-IV participating. Institutions that indicated having open admission policies were then excluded. Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2011-12). US Department of Education, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Trends in Average Yield Rate at Four-Year Colleges

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201130.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

51.450.6

49.1 48.947.5

48.4

46.2

42.9 42.9 42.641.3

39.7

47.8

45.7 45.544.2 43.8 44.2

43.3

38.4 38.4

36.435.4

34.3

Public Private

Note: The list of colleges was drawn from the 2002-2013 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) using the online IPEDS Data Center. For each year of data, institutions were selected using the following criteria: US location, four-year, not-for-profit, baccalaureate degree-granting, and Title-IV participating. Institutions that indicated having open admission policies were then excluded. Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2011-12). US Department of Education, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

4. Admission Strategies: Percentage of Colleges Using Early Admission Strategies and Wait Lists

Early Decision Early Action Wait List

Total 18.3% 32.4% 42.6%

Control

Public 8.9 26.7 35.6

Private 22.9 35.1 45.8

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.

Percentage of Colleges Reporting Increases in Early Applications

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

4337

5863

49 49 47

38

5550

56

68

56

80

70

81

65

74 72

62

69

78

Early Decision Early Action

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.

FactorConsiderable importance

Moderate importance

Limited importance

No importance

Grades in college prep courses 81.5% 10.4% 7.4% 0.7%Strength of curriculum 63.7 24.8 8.1 3.3Admission test scores (SAT, ACT) 58.3 29.5 10.0 2.2Grades in all courses 51.5 37.4 8.9 2.2Essay or writing sample 22.2 37.8 22.6 17.4Student’s demonstrated interest 20.1 34.0 23.9 22.0Counselor recommendation 15.9 43.9 24.7 15.5Teacher recommendation 15.2 35.3 33.5 16.0Class rank 14.1 43.9 28.3 13.8Extracurricular activities 9.6 40.6 33.9 15.9Interview 7.8 21.2 27.9 43.1Portfolio 7.5 30.6 32.5 29.5Subject test scores (AP, IB) 6.4 9.4 34.3 49.8SAT II scores 6.0 10.9 23.7 59.4State graduation exam scores 3.4 10.1 28.4 58.2

Work 2.6 17.1 51.3 29.0

5.Factors in the Admission Decision

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.

Factors Showing Most Change in “Considerable Importance” Rating: 1993 to 2013

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Demonstrated Interest

Essay

Class rank

Admission test scores

Grades in all courses

Perc

enta

ge o

f col

lege

s

Considerable importance

Moderate importance

Limited importance

No importance

High school attended 3.3 24.1 33.7 38.9

Alumni relations 3.3 21.2 19.0 56.5First-generation status 2.6 16.7 28.9 51.9State or county of residence 2.2 25.1 26.6 46.1

Race/ethnicity 1.9 7.0 17.8 73.3Gender 1.9 12.3 17.9 67.9Ability to pay 1.8 18.1 38.7 41.3

Percentage of Colleges Attributing Different Levels of Importance to the Influence of Student Characteristics on the Evaluation of Factors in the Admission Decision: 2013

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.

Top 5 New & Noteworthy Tidbits

• What is PPY?

• What could it mean for counselors?

• Improved discussions about financing college• Financial Aid/FAFSA information nights held earlier• Fall workload increases• College/University requests for earlier visits

1. Prior-Prior Year Tax Data for FAFSA

NACAC PPY Web Page

2. College Scorecard

Sample Scorecard

3. ED Counselor Toolkit

4. CFPB Award Letter Comparison Tool

5. Trusted Sources

Top 5 Advocacy Issues for School Counselors and College Advisors

1. Students Per Counselor at Public Schools

SOURCES: Common Core of Data. Elementary/Secondary Information System (ELSi) tableGenerator. (2011-12) US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics..

• Each public school counselor responsible for 475 students, on average

• In the Northeast:New York 400:1Connecticut 503:1Pennsylvania 387:1New Jersey 350:1

2. Reach Higher Initiative

3. The Council of National School Counseling and College Access Organizations

• NACAC, ASCA, College Board, ACT, ACA, NCAN, NCAC, SREB/Go Alliance, CACREP

• Stay tuned: new web site for counselors and college access professionals

4. Supreme Court: Fisher v University of Texas

5. NACAC Affiliates

Advocacy for College Admission Counseling:

• Equitable access to college preparatory curriculum• Support for school counselors and college advising• Support for need-based financial aid for college• Protecting students against fraud and abuse• Supporting higher education for undocumented students

Questions?

• Thank you, Marist College!

• For more about NACAC:

www.nacacnet.org