N. Barry Lyons Consulting; 2012 Update for New Construction Condos in Toronto.
-
Upload
richard-silver-sothebys-international-realty-canada -
Category
Real Estate
-
view
1.740 -
download
0
description
Transcript of N. Barry Lyons Consulting; 2012 Update for New Construction Condos in Toronto.
Investors Rule! Dynamics of the GTA Condo Apartment Market
Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell
March 2nd, 2012
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: UrbanToronto, 3Dementia, February 2010
Source: RealNet Canada Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board and NBLC
51% 43% 45%
50% 48% 51%
44% 42% 49%
56%
48%
49%
57% 55%
50% 52%
49%
56% 58%
51%
44%
52%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F
# U
nit
s
High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales Greater Toronto Area, 2002 to 2012F
Resales
New Sales
199 High-Rise Apartment Buildings, 46,387 Units Completed Since 2000
(Dufferin, Bloor, DVP and Lake Ontario)
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
905 416
Tota
l Sal
es
(# U
nit
s)
New High-Rise Sales 905 vs 416 Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Etobicoke North York Scarborough Toronto
Tota
l Sal
es
(# U
nit
s)
New High-Rise Sales By Former 416 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Tota
l Sal
es
(# U
nit
s)
New High-Rise Sales By 905 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Studio 4%
1-Bed 20%
1-Bed+Den 28%
2-Bed 21%
2-Bed+Den 20%
3-Bed & Up 2%
Penthouse 3%
Other 2%
New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Greater Toronto Area, 2005
Studio 2%
1-Bed 21%
1-Bed+Den 34%
2-Bed 24%
2-Bed+Den 12%
3-Bed & Up 2%
Penthouse 3%
Other 2%
New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Greater Toronto Area, January 2012
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board and NBLC
Source: NBLC, RealNet Canada Inc. and RBC
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000Ja
n-0
6
Ap
r-06
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-08
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ave
rage
Sal
e P
rice
Nu
mb
er
of
Sale
s
Monthly High-Rise New Sales and Resales and Average Pricing Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2012
New Sales Resales New Price Resale Price
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Jan
-05
Ap
r-05
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-06
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-08
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
# o
f A
ctiv
e H
igh
-Ris
e S
ite
Un
sold
Inve
nto
ry (
# o
f U
nit
s)
New High-Rise Unsold Inventory and Site Count Greater Toronto Area, 2005 to 2012
High Rise Inventory
High Rise Site Count
8,534
3,906
9,832
12,279
10,066
15,046
14,608
15,407
12,942
11,783
15,788
14,102
24,938
25,454
21,608
7,576
2,303
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
Total Units
New High-Rise Occupancies Greater Toronto Area, 2000 to 2016F
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Opera – 741 square foot Three-Bedroom Unit at Peter Street Condos
Source: Site Marketing Materials
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
900
920
940
Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
Ave
rage
Un
it S
ize
(sq
. ft.
) New High-Rise Average Unit Size (sq. ft.)
Greater Toronto Area, 2004 to 2012
905’s New Downtowns
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
905’s New Downtowns
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Mississauga
Vaughan
905’s New Downtowns
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Richmond Hill
Changing Dynamic of Downtown Toronto
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Planned New Downtown Toronto Office Buildings
Source: BMO Capital Markets
10 York
Waterfront Parks Coming Along Underpass Park – Waterfront Toronto
]
Changing Dynamic of Downtown Toronto
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Underpass Park, Waterfront Toronto
Pan Am Athlete’s Village: 2015
View East from Front and Cherry
Transit Solutions
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Union Station Redevelopment Doubling Capacity
Where Should Transit Go? Downtown Relief Line?
The Big Unknown – Future Role of Investors
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
Investor Driven Condo Launch Format
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
STAGES DESCRIPTION
First round of selling, lowest possible pricing. Investors purchase with a “Platinum Agent”. A Platinum Agent is a high-volume broker or sales representative who has the best relationships with condo developers. Platinum Agents typically sell 10 or more units in a project (sometimes as much as 50 units). These units are usually ‘allocated’ in advance. Typically 10-15 Platinum Agents in a given project.
A VIP Agent is a broker or sales representative that has sold a unit or multiple units for the specific developer in the past. A typical project launch will have anywhere from 50-300 VIP agents. These agents will NOT have units allocated to them in advance.
Once the VIP stage is over, the developer will open its doors to all brokers and sales representatives. Again, prices are typically raised for this new phase of selling. Individual investors and buyers, however, are still not permitted to walk in and purchase without the representation of a broker or agent.
At the start of sales, the developer will typically launch a website for the project (i.e. ABCcondos.com). The website will provide very limited details, and include a ‘registration form’ for individual investors and buyers. It is usually during this phase where individuals are asked to come in and purchase providing them priority over the general public.
By this phase, the developer will have started their major ad campaign, creating awareness for the project to the general public. This is often accompanied by a ‘Grand Opening’ event, where the public is invited to come in and purchase.
1 PLATINUM AGENTS
2 VIP AGENTS
3 GENERAL AGENTS
4 PRE-REGISTRATION
5 PUBLIC GRAND OPENING