Mythbusting: The

cohort study and other NZ

fleet trends

October 2014 | Prepared by Iain McGlinchy, Principal Adviser, Technology and Transport Systems

In 2013 4.4 million kiwis owned:

• ~ 2,600,000 light petrol vehicles

• ~ 520,000 diesel powered light vehicles

► mostly vans, utes light trucks and 4WDs (very few cars)

• ~ 120,000 diesel heavy vehicles (trucks and buses)

• ~ 115,000 motor bikes

• ~ 30,000 mopeds

• Among these are:

• ~ 8,800 hybrid vehicles (~0.25% of the fleet)

• ~ 1,200 CNG powered light vehicles

• ~ 3,800 LPG powered light vehicles

• ~ 200 electric light vehicles (ie cars)

• ~ 80 electric trolley buses

• 1 electric dump truck!

The NZ vehicle fleet

About 96% (3 million) of our vehicles on road are light vehicles (ie cars, 4WDs,

vans, utes and light trucks)

Light passenger

80.4%

Light commercial

11.8%

MCycle 3.6%

Trucks 3.5% Bus

0.3%

Other 0.5%

Percentage of the fleet (2013)

The NZ vehicle fleet: where is the fuel used?

► The 4% (~120,000) that are heavy vehicles responsible for ~ 21% of fuel used

► The 12% light commercials use nearly 17% of the fuel

Light passenger

fleet 62.1%

Light commercial

fleet 16.6%

Motorcycle 0.4%

Heavy fleet 20.8%

Percentage fuel used (2013)

► 4

Changing patterns of fuel choices in light fleet

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Fuel types of light vehicles entering fleet (2000 – 2013)

Used Petrol

New Petrol

Used Diesel

New Diesel - Commercial New Diesel - Passenger

► Diesel vehicles are increasing

► Now 17% of total fleet and about 20% of vehicles entering

► Still mostly commercials and 4WDs, few passenger cars

Changing emissions standards: New vehicles

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Mar 05 Sep06 Mar 08 Sep09 Mar 11 Sep12 Mar 14

Mo

nth

ly r

eg

istr

ati

on

s

Month of first registration

NZ new petrol emissions regime

Other

Euro 6

Euro 5

Euro 4

Euro 3 or 4

Euro 3

Euro 2

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Mar 05 Sep06 Mar 08 Sep09 Mar 11 Sep12 Mar 14

Mo

nth

ly r

eg

istr

ati

on

s

Month of first registration

NZ new diesel emissions regime

Other

Euro 6

Euro 5

Euro 4

Euro 3

Euro 2Euro 4

Euro 5

Two key features:

Still large number of ‘existing model vehicles’ entering the fleet at Euro 4/IV. (Legal until 2016)

But at same time measurable growth of Euro 6! (shown in black)

Euro 4

Euro 5

Changing emissions standards: Used vehicles

Virtually all used vehicles entering the fleet now meet Japan 2005 or equivalent Euro standards

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Mar 05 Sep06 Mar 08 Sep09 Mar 11 Sep12 Mar 14

Mo

nth

ly r

eg

istr

ati

on

s

Month of first registration

Used petrol emissions regime

Japanese 05 petrol

Japanese 00/02 petrol

Japanese 98 petrol

Japanese pre-1998 petrol

Other

Japan 05

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Mar 05 Sep06 Mar 08 Sep09 Mar 11 Sep12 Mar 14M

on

thly

reg

istr

ati

on

s

Month of first registration

Used diesel emissions regime

Japanese 05 diesel

Japanese 02/04 diesel

Japanese 97/99 diesel

Japanese pre-97 diesel

Other

Euro 4

Japan 05

500

550

600

650

700

750

Ve

hic

les p

er

10

00

po

pu

latio

n

Period

Light fleet ownership per 1000 population

Fleet size

•The size of the New Zealand vehicle fleet has been increasing pretty much since records began

•But since 2007 growth has tapered off and remained almost flat for 6 years until fleet size grew again in 2013 (and 2014)

•NZ’s population has grown since 2000s, so per capita values for ownership (and travel) fell until 2013

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

Vehicle fleet and population (1988 – 2013)

Total fleet Population

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

Ve

hic

les

Vehicle Fleet (2004 - 2013) Light passenger Light commercial Trucks Bus

2007 2012

► 8

Vehicle fleet travel

•Travel has remained remarkably constant, despite economic ups and downs •Because numbers of vehicles increased it means per vehicle travel has fallen pretty consistently for light vehicles over last decade

20

25

30

35

40

Bill

ion

Ve

hic

le k

m

Period

Total Fleet Travel

Light travel Heavy travel

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

An

nu

al km

pe

r ve

hic

le

Average annual travel per light vehicle

Why did the fleet grow in 2013?

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Jan

-00

Jul-

00

Jan

-01

Jul-

01

Jan

-02

Jul-

02

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Exch

ange

Rat

e (Y

en t

o N

Z$)

Nu

mb

er

of

veh

icle

s

Monthly vehicle registrations of all light vehicles vs the exchange rate Jan 2000 - Jun 2014

Registrations of used light vehicles All light vehicles Exchange rate

As the economy has recovered, so too has the car market!

VEHICLE AGE

Average age of vehicles in our fleet has been steadily

rising since around 2000

BUT The fleet has not got older in 2014 for first time since 2000

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Avera

ge a

ge (

years

) Light fleet average age 2000 – 2013 and first three quarters of

2014

Quarterly

data

Annual

data

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

240,000

Ve

hic

les

Year of manufacture

Light fleet vehicle year of manufacture Dec 2013

Age distribution of NZ light vehicle fleet (Dec 2013)

1996

► 13

► We have a completely disproportionate number of vehicles built 1995 – 1997

► These were largely imported in the early 2000s

It is the bulge of Japanese used vehicles that is getting

older

Average age of NZ New is staying pretty constant while Japanese-used rising steadily

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

16.00

17.00

18.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Light fleet average age by new/used

Light NZ new Light Used Imports

What will happen to fleet age in coming years?

-300000

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Entry and exit of light vehicles Entry Exit

En

tere

d

Exite

d

► The Ministry has spent a lot of time

trying to model the aging of the vehicle

fleet.

► We found that the rates of scrappage

are more important than imports, but

are virtually impossible to predict

accurately

► Although imports were up in 2013 over

previous years, 2013 had the lowest

level of vehicle scrappage since 2002!

► 2014 data so far shows scrapping has

not increased so fleet likely to continue

to grow

►Short answer is we don’t know what will happen to vehicle age!

SO, WHO OWNS ALL THESE OLD

VEHICLES?

The cohort study

► In 2014 Ministry of Transport commissioned Emission Impossible to analyse who

owned these old vehicles and what, if anything, we could determine about their social

characteristics

► The study used the 2012 census data and data from the Motor Vehicle Register

► Study was carefully monitored to ensure privacy of all individuals

► Study looked at a range of variables such as average income of the census area unit

that vehicles were registered to, the age of owners, fuel type, and many other

variables that we thought might affect ownership

► The study built on an earlier, smaller study that had looked at Auckland and we

wanted to broaden it out to look at if there were regional differences

Study is not yet published.

Vehicle ownership is remarkably egalitarian

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Fre

qu

en

cy o

f o

ccu

rre

nce

Social Deprivation Index

Dunedin

1990 1996 2005

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Fre

qu

en

cy o

f o

ccu

rre

nce

Social Deprivation Index

Auckland 1990 1996 2005

Increasing wealth

Model year of vehicles

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Fre

qu

en

cy o

f o

ccu

rre

nce

Social Deprivation Index

Rotorua

1990 1996 2005

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Fre

qu

en

cy o

f o

ccu

rre

nce

Social Deprivation Index

Whangarei

1990 1996 2005

► There are no obvious patterns for poorer people to own older vehicles

SO, DOES VEHICLE AGE MATTER

AND HOW DOES IT RELATE TO

FUEL USE?

Fuel use vs fleet size

• There is very little evidence that age

and fuel economy are linked

• Since 1988 (when reliable data starts

for vehicle fleet) there has been a

very close relationship between fuel

use and size of fleet (R2 = 0.94)

• Appears other variables, like state of

economy, (or changes to fleet age)

are not strongly affecting fuel use

Fuel data from “All Domestic Transport” at http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/data/oil

► 20

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Tota

l nu

mb

er

of

veh

icle

s

Fue

l use

(P

J)

Vehicle fleet and population

Land Transport Fuel use (from MED) Total fleet

On average, older vehicles travel less

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Dis

tan

ce t

rave

lled

per

ye

ar (

km)

Age of vehicle (years)

Average distance travelled per year by vehicle of given age (2000 - 2013)

•New vehicles travel half their total lifetime km in their first 5-6 years! •If you replace an older vehicle with a younger vehicle, on average it will travel further

Average age of scrapping

Average age of fleet

Average age of used vehicles entering the fleet

Engine sizes of older vehicles are usually smaller

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Engi

ne

siz

e (

CC

)

Age of vehicle (in years)

Average engine size of vehicles of given age in the NZ light fleet

2005

2012

Average age of scrapping

Average age of fleet

Average age of used vehicles entering the fleet

On average, if you replace a vehicle with a newer model the replacement will have a larger engine Impact of decline in large petrol engined vehicles, but increase in diesel 4WD

Quick conclusion

►This means, that on average, if we had a younger fleet (as a result of

actively getting rid of our existing older vehicles) the resulting fleet would

probably have a larger engine size and travel further than our current

fleet!

►Suggests that actively intervening to create a younger fleet to reduce

CO2 emissions, would probably not work

►Although if fleet size shrinks as older used vehicles are scrapped and

NOT replaced then fuel use may fall

►Separate study by MOT (not published) shows that any increased travel

by newer vehicles replacing older vehicles would have a net negative

effect on safety due to increased exposure.

► 23

BUT HAVEN’T VEHICLES GOT

MORE EFFICIENT OVER TIME?

Efficiency vs weight

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

0

5

10

15

20

25

wei

ght

in k

g

Litr

es/1

00

km

Fuel economy and weight of selected Holden Commodore models 1980 - 2002

City highway Weight (kg)

Data provided by Australian govt official (pers com). Checked against published figures where

possible.

1.2l 1.8l

1.2l 1.8l

Much of the benefit of

increasing technical efficiency

has been traded off against

weight and increased power

► 25

THE REAL WORLD IS A SPECIAL

CASE!

On-road fuel use in New Zealand

No relationship between aging of the fleet and changes in on road fuel economy Also, we see no strong link between modelled figures and in-service figures

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

l/1

00

km

Year

On road fuel economy (l/100km) for NZ petrol vehicles compared with recorded fuel economy

NZ - on-road fuel economy NZ-average certified efficiency all light vehicles entering

•Between 2001 and 2013 the average age of light fleet increased from 11. 6 years to 13.53 years (1.9 years) • On road fuel economy effectively stayed the same • From 2005 certified efficiency of petrol vehicles entering the NZ fleet improved from 9.03 l/100km to 7.82 l/100km

► 27

There has been a growing divergence between modelled

fuel economy and real world fuel use in Japan as well

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

l/1

00

km

Year

Fuel economy (l/100km) for Japanese passenger petrol vehicles

Japan - Average efficiency based on standard test ENTERING

Japan - Average efficiency based on standard test IN USE

Japan - Average efficiency - ACTUAL

Source: http://www.jama-english.jp/publications/sustainable_mobility_2012.pdf

•~65% improvement in rated fuel consumption for vehicles entering •But only ~10% change in real world fuel consumption •Vehicle fleet about half age of NZ, but same on-road fuel use! •Over this time the Japanese fleet average age also increased from 4.88 in 1995 to 8.07 in 2013 (~3 years)

No relationship between aging of the fleet and fuel use. Again, we see divergence between modelled figures and in-service figures

► 28

Similar divergence between rated fuel consumption and real

seen world in independent European testing

Source: http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_LabToRoad_20130527.pdf

• European research also shows that steady divergence between fuel economy measured by manufacturers compared with results from real world driving

• Strong suggestion from this and Japanese data that manufacturers build cars to pass the test, not for real world

• This may partly explain why we are not seeing expected changes in the fuel economy in the real world

• Also, other variables, like congestion may also have gotten worse over this time

► 29

Harmful NOx emissions are also not falling

Source: TNO 2013 R11891 Investigations and real world emission performance of Euro 6 light-duty vehicles

► Vehicles have been built to

comply with the drive cycle

► Unfortunately no one drives

like the drive cycles

► European on-road trials are showing Euro 5 NOx may actually be worse than Euro 4

► Euro 6 is possibly only slightly better for urban and worse for motorway than Euro 5

Fortunately, it’s not all bad news

The same 2014 report from TNO concluded:

Particulate emissions and CO and HC emissions of Euro 5 diesel vehicles are under

control under real world conditions as a result of the applied DPF (diesel particulate

filter) and oxidation catalyst

BUT, and it is a big but, this assumes that the technology is maintained

Source: TNO 2013 R11891 Investigations and real world emission performance of Euro 6 light-duty vehicles

Harmful emissions are also not falling

The European Commission has also effectively said the same thing:

► Successive generations of Euro standards and fuel quality standards have been

agreed so as to control vehicle emissions in the EU. The required reductions have

been delivered, with one exception: NOx emissions from light-duty diesel engines.

Real-world NOx emissions from Euro 5 cars type-approved since 2009 now exceed

those of Euro 1 cars type-approved in 1992, and are in the region of five times the

limit value.

While it is too soon to say for sure, it does look like we will have a Euro 6 B or

Euro 7, with a drive cycle that more accurately reflects the real world.

Source: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/;ELX_SESSIONID=9JB1JFTJVwPpxGm7BGzJLBXV1hT2rPGXn8BvtnVgCg21Hvxn98hp!1125658998?uri=CELEX:52013DC0918

Contact

Iain McGlinchy

Principal Adviser

Technology and Transport Systems

Ministry of Transport

(04) 439 9295

i.mcglinchy@transport.govt.nz

www.transport.govt.nz

► 33