MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 WP 8 MONITORING & FORECASTING CENTRE for...
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Transcript of MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 WP 8 MONITORING & FORECASTING CENTRE for...
MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013
WP 8
MONITORING & FORECASTINGCENTRE for North-West Shelf
MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – Cork /16-17 April 2013
Work Package Main Objectives
MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013
Main objectives: • Developments for two Atlantic Margin Model (AMM) releases during the project
• AMM3.0• Development from start of project• Operational implementation was planned for November 2013
• Likely to be delayed to early 2014 due to critical operational changes• Will be used in reanalysis
• AMM4.0 • Implementation originally planned for May 2014
• May be delayed beyond end of project
• Development of multi-model uncertainty estimates• Development from May 2012• Implementation planned for Apr 2014
Partnership
MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013
WP Leadership being handed over from Adrian Hines to Ed
Blockley with effect from Annual MeetingWP8 Lead
Met Office
Met Office
Met Office
System Evolution
MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013
• Objectives and achievements: • AMM3.0 development:
• Multi-model ensemble development:• V0 in place for SST, SSS, surface currents and transports• V1 under development
• Main difficulties encountered• Development of components to contribute to AMM3.0 has gone smoothly…• ….but next need to bring these together into the upgrade package
Item Status
Bulk formulae Development complete
Boundary scheme Baltic outflow from BAL MFC in testing
River data from E-HYPE In testing
Update to new NOOS bathymetry
Waiting for EMODNET
Item Status
Vertical coordinates Development complete
Diffusion schemes update
Smagorinsky coded coded; Griffies in testing
PPM vert. / horiz. tracer advection
In testing
Improve ERSEM parameterisations
Zooplankton prey selectivity tested
NEMOVAR (SST only) Technical tests complete
Production Evolution
MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013
• Objectives• No product changes planned during first year of project• Only planned product update is:
• Upgrade vertical resolution of the hourly products• Planned for November 2013
• Minor changes• Product name changes changes for V3 release • netCDF4 being produced, with post-processing to netCDF3 • DirectGetFile dropped in favour of new FTP
Improvements: use of bulk forcing (Alex Arnold, Met Office)
• Forcing using fluxes computed in NWP model being replaced by use of CORE bulk formulae
• Leads to cooler SSTs• More scope for tuning
Differences from OSTIA SST
Annual mean for 2011
Direct Forcing
CORE bulk
formulae
Improvements: new stretching function for s-coordinates (John Siddorn / Rachel Furner, Met Office)
• New stretching function (Siddorn and Furner, 2013) to allow:– User specified top and bottom cell height – Flexibility to focus resolution near surface or seabed
Increases diurnal temperature range in idealised flux experiment
(% increase)/100
Reduces horizontal pressure gradient errors for an idealised seamount case with a
realistic temperature stratification
Original New
Improvements: testing of vertical mixing schemes (Maria Luneva, NOC)
Distance (km)
Scanfish data
Canuto
Kantha-Clayson
Four different parameterizations of vertical mixing have been tested: - Turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme - Generic Length Scale scheme with (k-ε) closure based on
- Canuto (2001) structural functions - Kantha-Clayson, 1994 (KC94) - KC94 with Kantha 2004 constants
Two year simulations compared with SCANFISH obs for 2001 in the North Sea
Conclusions: - Standard TKE scheme is too diffusive - Canuto (2001) gives better pycnocline depth, but also very diffusive. - (k-ε) with KC94 gives sharper thermocline and better structure of horizontal fronts.
Scanfish sections
Isotherms along a Scanfish section
Improvements: ERSEM developments (Momme Butenschon, PML)
ERSEM+SMP
ERSEM
Developments implemented in ERSEM• Modelling the Stoichiometric Modulation of
Predation (SMP, Mitra 2006)• Modelling of zooplankton efficiency
depending on nutritional status of prey • Allows improved modelling of top-down
control of phytoplankton community succession
• Successful representation of late summer blooms absent in previous model formulations
• Implementation of the Bacteria-OM submodel (Polimene et al., 2006)
• Sub-model to represent the cycling of organic matter through bacteria
• Enables explicit modelling of bacterial growth efficiency and the microbial carbon pump
Improvements: use of NEMOVAR for SST assimilation (James While, Met Office)
• Data assimilation has been upgraded to the latest version of the NEMOVAR 3D-VAR system
• A new parameterised error covariance scheme has been developed– Currently undergoing testing– Limits the spreading of information across
temperature and salinity fronts– Parameterised correlation length scales can
change daily, allowing some flow dependence • Unlike statistically estimated correlations
Correlation from NMC method + localisation
Parameterised Correlation
Improvements: multi-model ensemble (MME) (Inga Golbeck / Frank Janssen, BSH)
• First version (V0) of MME in place for SST, SSS, surface currents and transports
SST North Sea
Ensemble mean
Standard deviation
Ensemble mean of NOOS
Color of arrows: Number of models included in the calculation of the MME
Color of transects: Variation coefficient calculated for each transect (Brown 1998)
CV ≤ 1 1 < CV ≤ 3 CV >3
Surface currents: Progressive Vector Diagrams (PVD)
First period summary and next steps
MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013
First year progress• Good progress with developments targeted for inclusion in AMM3.0
• Most expected developments on target for inclusion• Also good progress with development of multi-model ensemble
• V0 running• V1 preparations well advanced
First year issues• AMM3.0 implementation to be delayed due to operational change constraints
• Knock-on impact on subsequent implementations
Second year priorities• Bring together component changes to build AMM3.0
• Operational implementation in early 2014• Use in reanalysis later this year
• On-going development of multi-model ensemble• Implementation of V1 in April 2014