MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

32
8/12/2019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1/32 Measurement and Verification Using Energy Lia Webster, Senior Engineer PECI

Transcript of MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

Page 1: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 132

Measurement and Verification Using Energy

Lia Webster Senior Engineer

PECI

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 232

Presentation Overview

Why are we doing MampVLEED Points

MampV Basics

Guidelines

Basic conceptsCalibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 332

Motivation for MampV

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 432

Drivers for MampV

bull Ensure energy performance

ndash Validate and improve design

ndash Identify problems improvements

bull Basis for payments ndash Performance contracts

ndash Utility programs

ndash Emission trading

ndash Energy budgets

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532

Actual vs Predicted Energy

From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED

for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632

LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5

Intent

To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time

Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan

ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III

References

bull IPMVP Vol III

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732

LEED

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832

Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance

ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification

ndash

bull Develop and implement MampV Plan

ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-

ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B

raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy

bull Plan for corrective action

ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932

New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated

ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new

ndash

ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting

ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance

bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy

consumption over time

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 2: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 232

Presentation Overview

Why are we doing MampVLEED Points

MampV Basics

Guidelines

Basic conceptsCalibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 332

Motivation for MampV

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 432

Drivers for MampV

bull Ensure energy performance

ndash Validate and improve design

ndash Identify problems improvements

bull Basis for payments ndash Performance contracts

ndash Utility programs

ndash Emission trading

ndash Energy budgets

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532

Actual vs Predicted Energy

From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED

for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632

LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5

Intent

To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time

Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan

ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III

References

bull IPMVP Vol III

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732

LEED

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832

Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance

ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification

ndash

bull Develop and implement MampV Plan

ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-

ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B

raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy

bull Plan for corrective action

ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932

New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated

ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new

ndash

ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting

ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance

bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy

consumption over time

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 3: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 332

Motivation for MampV

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 432

Drivers for MampV

bull Ensure energy performance

ndash Validate and improve design

ndash Identify problems improvements

bull Basis for payments ndash Performance contracts

ndash Utility programs

ndash Emission trading

ndash Energy budgets

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532

Actual vs Predicted Energy

From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED

for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632

LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5

Intent

To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time

Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan

ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III

References

bull IPMVP Vol III

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732

LEED

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832

Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance

ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification

ndash

bull Develop and implement MampV Plan

ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-

ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B

raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy

bull Plan for corrective action

ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932

New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated

ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new

ndash

ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting

ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance

bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy

consumption over time

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 4: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 432

Drivers for MampV

bull Ensure energy performance

ndash Validate and improve design

ndash Identify problems improvements

bull Basis for payments ndash Performance contracts

ndash Utility programs

ndash Emission trading

ndash Energy budgets

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532

Actual vs Predicted Energy

From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED

for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632

LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5

Intent

To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time

Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan

ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III

References

bull IPMVP Vol III

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732

LEED

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832

Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance

ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification

ndash

bull Develop and implement MampV Plan

ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-

ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B

raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy

bull Plan for corrective action

ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932

New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated

ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new

ndash

ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting

ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance

bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy

consumption over time

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 5: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532

Actual vs Predicted Energy

From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED

for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632

LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5

Intent

To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time

Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan

ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III

References

bull IPMVP Vol III

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732

LEED

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832

Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance

ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification

ndash

bull Develop and implement MampV Plan

ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-

ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B

raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy

bull Plan for corrective action

ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932

New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated

ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new

ndash

ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting

ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance

bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy

consumption over time

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 6: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632

LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5

Intent

To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time

Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan

ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III

References

bull IPMVP Vol III

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732

LEED

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832

Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance

ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification

ndash

bull Develop and implement MampV Plan

ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-

ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B

raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy

bull Plan for corrective action

ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932

New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated

ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new

ndash

ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting

ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance

bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy

consumption over time

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 7: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732

LEED

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832

Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance

ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification

ndash

bull Develop and implement MampV Plan

ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-

ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B

raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy

bull Plan for corrective action

ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932

New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated

ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new

ndash

ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting

ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance

bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy

consumption over time

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 8: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832

Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance

ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification

ndash

bull Develop and implement MampV Plan

ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-

ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B

raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy

bull Plan for corrective action

ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932

New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated

ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new

ndash

ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting

ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance

bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy

consumption over time

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 9: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932

New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated

ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new

ndash

ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting

ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance

bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy

consumption over time

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 10: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032

MampV Basics

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 11: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132

MampV Guidelines

983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization

International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)

EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg

FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE

ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml

ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg

CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying

Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings

California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 12: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232

International Performance

Measurement and VerificationProtocol

Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg

IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996

Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin

lsquosavingsrsquo

Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a

specific project

Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the

principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent

Four MampV approaches

ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 13: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332

IPMVPVolumes

bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings

bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit

bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications

ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006

ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 14: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432

MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description

Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters

Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use

Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data

Option D ndash Calibrated

Simulation

Simulation of whole building

energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 15: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532

Options A and B vsOptions C and D

Options A and B are retrofit-

isolation methods

Options C and D are whole-facility methods

15

measurement boundary isdrawn

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 16: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632

ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002

Measurement of Energy and Demand

Savings

3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and

1 Whole-building metering

bull Performance or Prescriptive paths

2 Retrofit isolation metering

3 Whole-building calibrated simulation

Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 17: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732

IPMVP Basic Equation

The Basic Savings Equation

Baseline Period energy

- Reporting Period energy

+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments

Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 18: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832

AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to

the same set of conditions

bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather

bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change

Baseline Period Reporting Period

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 19: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932

A Hypothetical Baseline

1000000

Baseline + Adjustments

250000

500000

750000

E n e r g y

Baseline Period Reporting Period

Metered Energy

Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 20: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032

Calibrated Simulation

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 21: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132

Option B Subsystem Model

FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 22: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232

IPMVP Option D ndash

Calibrated Simulation

IPMVP Vol III

bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline

bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use

ndash Not allowed by LEED

NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 23: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332

Avoided or Normalized

IPMVP 2007

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 24: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432

MampV Procedure

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 25: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532

Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler

ndash Create model

ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data

ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data

ndash Create modify baseline models

bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed

ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent

ndash Design MampV approach

ndash Define baseline

ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements

ndash Perform energy savings calculations

bull Cx Agent

ndash Perform operational verification

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 26: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632

Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files

bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms

bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner

ndash Useful Sub-metering

ndash Operational verification

ndash Establish expected performance

ndash Not academic exercise

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732

Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

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Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 27: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

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Calibrate the model

bull Revise modeling assumptions

ndash Update weather data

ndash Compare with measurements

ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments

Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 28: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832

Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual

ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data

ndash Verify calibration criteria are met

bull Identify possible sources and solutions

ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s

Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

T h e r m s o r k W

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

k W h

Therms

Therms DOE2kW

kW DOE2

kWh

kWh DOE2

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 29: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932

Weather DataSource Data type Link

NREL energy plus hourly

httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen

ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm

NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata

httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly

s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays

Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml

WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom

Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp

WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 30: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032

And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria

bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]

ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors

ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)

bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]

ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in

prediction

30

Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria

FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14

Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5

Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15

Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10

Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30

also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 31: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132

Calculate Savings

Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired

Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case

Energy Use kWh

Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings

Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -

Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600

Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749

Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940

31

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg

Page 32: MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232

Thank you

Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg