MULTIPLE UNITS GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS - SCI …...Forecast, Fleet, Suppliers, Procurement Projects...

2018

MULTIPLE UNITS – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS

Forecast, Fleet, Suppliers, Procurement Projects

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© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Multiple Units – Global Market Trends 2

MULTIPLE UNITS – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS Forecast, Fleet, Suppliers, Procurement Projects Available in English from 17th May 2018. Now you can also purchase the data annex in Excel format (see overview data sheets on page no. 6 for more information). This study entitled “Multiple Units - Global Market Trends” provides a comprehensive overview into the structure, installed bases, procurements, manufacturers and development trends in the rail vehicle segment analysed. Based on current developments in rail transport, this study delivers an analysis and sound estimate of the market for diesel and electric multiple units. Referring to the successful preceding study from 2015 and experience from more than 2 000 projects in the field of railway technology, SCI Verkehr has verified the central input data in the past few years. All chapters of the preceding study have been reviewed and comprehensively updated. In concrete terms, the market study “Multiple Units - Global Market Trends” provides:

– A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for multiple units including an in-depth analysis of all relevant markets of the individual countries

– A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning operational purposes, quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potentials

– An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of multiple units in the individual regions

– Analysis of market shares of manufacturers as well as a forecast of new procurement and after-sales volumes (in EUR) of multiple units for each region up to 2022

– Overview of the multiple units’ manufacturers including a brief description of the current range of products and services in the annex to the study

– A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of multiple units for regional and local transport in the form of diagrams

– A list of operators’ rolling stock fleets and the current procurements of regional and local transport multiple units in the annexes to the study

Explore our additional offer of the data annex in Excel format

– All in this study displayed figures and graphs concerning markets, installed bases and deliveries are transparently and comprehensively available

– Apply the data sets for an individual evaluation and configuration or to access and supplement available market data

All in all, the study provides a well-founded analysis of the worldwide market for diesel locomotives. The study therefore provides both companies established in the railway industry as well as active and potential operators with important information for operational and strategic planning. SCI Verkehr analyses markets from the bottom up: based upon systematic observation of the railway markets, a detailed worldwide database of the installed base and projects forms the basis for in-depth studies on the various segments of the railway industry and the most important regional focus markets. Through the continuous production of its MultiClient Series, SCI Verkehr systematically analyses 35 core countries and more than 100 individual markets for railway industries. These studies also go into further detail regarding technological and railway operational aspects, which are not illustrated in this study.

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SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company specialising in the markets and economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad and we specialise in market and strategy issues for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and rail industry, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and economics departments in public administrations at national, regional and municipal levels. Contact: SCI Verkehr GmbH Alexander Apking Tel.: +49 221 93178 0 E-Mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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CONTENT

1 Executive Summary: The World Market for Multiple Units ................................................ 18

1.1 Market Overview ......................................................................................................................... 18

1.2 Installed base / Age structure .................................................................................................... 22

1.3 Manufacturers / Products / Market shares ................................................................................. 25

1.4 Market volume and market development .................................................................................. 27

2 Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study........................................................... 39

2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis ................................................................................................ 39

2.2 Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market ......................................................................... 41

2.3 Market Analysis Methodology .................................................................................................... 52

3 The Market for Multiple Units in Western Europe .............................................................. 56

3.1 Total Market................................................................................................................................ 56

3.2 Germany ..................................................................................................................................... 67

3.3 France ........................................................................................................................................ 73

3.4 United Kingdom ......................................................................................................................... 79

3.5 Italy ............................................................................................................................................. 88

3.6 Spain .......................................................................................................................................... 92

3.7 Switzerland ................................................................................................................................. 96

3.8 The Netherlands ....................................................................................................................... 100

3.9 Austria ...................................................................................................................................... 105

4 The Market for Multiple Units in Eastern Europe ............................................................. 110

4.1 Total Market.............................................................................................................................. 110

4.2 Poland ...................................................................................................................................... 119

4.3 Czech Republic ........................................................................................................................ 123

4.4 Hungary .................................................................................................................................... 126

4.5 Turkey ...................................................................................................................................... 129

5 The Market for Multiple Units in Asia ............................................................................... 133

5.1 Total Market.............................................................................................................................. 133

5.2 China ........................................................................................................................................ 143

5.3 India .......................................................................................................................................... 147

5.4 Japan........................................................................................................................................ 152

5.5 South Korea ............................................................................................................................. 157

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6 The Market for Multiple Units in North America ............................................................... 160

7 The Market for Multiple Units in South America .............................................................. 170

8 The Market for Multiple Units in the CIS .......................................................................... 180

8.1 Total Market.............................................................................................................................. 180

8.2 Russia ....................................................................................................................................... 190

9 The Market for Multiple Units in Africa / Middle East ...................................................... 194

10 The Market for Multiple Units in Australia / Pacific Region ............................................. 205

APPENDIX

Appendix A: Manufacturers .......................................................................................................... 215

Appendix B: Fleet structures ........................................................................................................ 265

Western Europe ................................................................................................................. 265 1

Eastern Europe .................................................................................................................. 278 2

Asia .................................................................................................................................... 284 3

North America ................................................................................................................... 290 4

South America ................................................................................................................... 291 5

CIS ..................................................................................................................................... 292 6

Africa / Middle East ........................................................................................................... 294 7

Australia / Pacific .............................................................................................................. 295 8

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DATA ANNEX IN EXCEL FORMAT

DATA SHEETS OVERVIEW

1 Market Overview

1.1 World Market Overview (Pivot)

1.2 Transport Performance (Pivot)

1.3 Market Volume (Pivot)

1.4 World Market Overview (Data)

1.5 Transport Performance (Data)

1.6 Market Volume (Data)

2 Installed Base

2.1 Installed Base Country (Pivot)

2.2 Installed Base Operator (Pivot)

2.3 Installed Base Age (Pivot)

2.4 Installed Base Top Speed (Pivot)

2.5 Installed Base Country (Data)

2.6 Installed Base Operator (Data)

2.7 Installed Base Age (Data)

2.8 Installed Base Top Speed (Data)

3 Deliveries

3.1 Deliveries Segment (Pivot)

3.2 Deliveries Manufacturer (Pivot)

3.3 Deliveries Power (Pivot)

3.4 Deliveries Segment (Data)

3.5 Deliveries Manufacturer (Data)

3.6 Deliveries Power (Data)

4 Additional Tables

4.1 Additional Figures

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Extract from the Study 8 The Market for Multiple Units in the CIS Market overview

The market for multiple units in the CIS currently has a volume of EUR XXX million. More than 95% are EMUs. While the EMU market will see a slight decrease in the next few years, the market volume for DMUs is expected to grow significantly, but starting from a low level. The after-sales segment is expected to grow for both types. […] Market Environment / Transport Market Railways in the CIS are of high importance, as the region is characterised by wide geographical dimensions and rather poorly-developed road infrastructure. Sparsely-populated areas are nonetheless connected through railway lines, but multiple unit passenger services rarely operate in these areas. The use of EMUs and DMUs is mainly for urban or suburban services as well as for regional services between cities. […]

CIS EMU Trend DMU Trend

Units 2017 X XXX XXX

Average development 2017-2022 (p.a.) −1.0% −1.8%

Average age 2017 (in years) XX XX

Average volume 2016-2018 (EUR million p.a.) XXX XX

Average development 2017-2022 (p.a.) −X.X% +XX.X%

Volatility market volume 2017-2022 (S.D.) X.X% XX.X%

Average volume 2016-2018 (EUR million p.a.) XXX XX

Average development 2017-2022 (p.a.) 3.2% 2.9%

Volatility market volume 2017-2022 (S.D.) 3.5% 14.3%

Boom/Strong Growth Small Growth Stagnation Small Decrease Clear Decline

Volume: > +5%p.a. +2 to +5% p.a. 0 to +2% p.a. -2 to 0% p.a. < -2% p.a.

Installed base: > +1.5%p.a. +0.5 to +1.5% p.a. -0.5 to +0.5% p.a. -1.5 to -0.5% p.a. < -1.5% p.a.

Insta

lled

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Figure 1: Transport development in the CIS

In 2016, CIS passenger rail performance was 192 million passenger-km, which represents about X% of global passenger transport performance. Russia accounts for two third of the region’s transport performance. Ukraine (XX%) and Kazakhstan (X%) are in second and third place. […] Installed base/age structure Electric Multiple Units The CIS has a large EMU fleet, accounting for about X% of the global stock. Overall, the number of units operated is difficult to quantify due to a lack of documentation of many of old vehicles from the Soviet period.

SCI Verkehr assumes that about XX XXX EMU cars are currently operated in the CIS. Russia has led the market, with large procurements in the last ten years. Procurements together with the scrapping of old trains have led to a relatively young fleet.

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Passenger rail performance [%]

Index 100 = 228,970 million pkm

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Rail transport performance - Development in the CIS between 2012 - 2016 [Index 2012 = 100]

Installed base and age structure – EMU in the CIS

Country Current installed base [units]

Current installed base [cars]

Average cars per unit Average age

Russia X XXX XX XXX X.X XX.X

Ukraine XXX 3 750 X.X XX.X

Belarus XX XXX 8.7 XX.X

Kazakhstan 60 XXX X.X XX.X

[…] […] […] […] […]

Total X XXX XX XXX X.X 21.3

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

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Figure 2: Age structure multiple units in the CIS

Diesel multiple units The very low number of only about XXX DMUs in the overall CIS region is an indication of the dominance of electric traction. The DMUs in the region account for around X% of the global fleet. One DMU consists on average of around 3.2 cars, and is thus much shorter than the average EMU. […] Manufacturers/Products/Market Shares Electric Multiple Units The main local producer – Russian manufacturer Transmashholding (TMH) – is still market leader for multiple units in the CIS region. The market has diversified, however, with more international competitors and new joint ventures. […]

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No info before 1978 1978-1982 1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 2013-2017

Installed base / Age distribution in the CIS [units]

EMU DMU© SCI Verkehr GmbH

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Figure 3: Market shares EMU in the CIS

– In the last few years, Transmashholding (TMH) has increased its capacities by […]

– Siemens is present through its joint-venture […]

– Since 2015, Alstom has held a 33% share in TMH. Further, in 2017 Alstom signed an agreement […]

– Stadler has successfully established relations in the CIS region, but will face strong competition. […]

Diesel multiple units The DMU market is small in the region. Only a few larger orders have been registered. As for deliveries outside Russia, the following important deliveries have been documented: […] Market volume and market development Electric Multiple Units The current market volume for new vehicles is around EUR XXX million per year; for after-sales services it is around EUR XXX million per year. The market for new vehicles will slightly increase in the next few years. The market development is influenced by the following drivers:

TMH51%

Siemens38%

Stadler10%

CRRC1%

EMU deliveries per manufacturer in the CIS region [2013-2017; units]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Total: ~xxx units

Drivers of EMU procurements

Brief description Relevance Trend

Fleet structure

– Demand for replacements due to the disposal of many older vehicle series, with replacement programmes mainly in Russia.

– […]

Investment funds – […]

– […]

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Important current and planned procurement projects Russia dominates the CIS markets and is analysed in detail in section 8.2. The following procurement projects are known of outside Russia:

– Stadler will produce more EMUs for the Belarussian market in its Minsk plant. […]

– Ukrainian state railway UZ has presented plans […]

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Market volume EMU in the CIS region [EUR million]

OEM AS© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Rail infrastructure – […]

– […]

Relevance for procurements: = very high, = high, = medium, = low, = none

5-year trend: = strongly increasing, = increasing, = constant, = decreasing = strongly decreasing

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

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Annex A: Manufacturers (Example)

Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (CAF)

Overview

Head Office: Calle José Miguel Iturrioz, 26, 20200 Beasain, Gipuzkoa, Spain

Website: www.caf.net

Shareholders: Cartera Social 29.56%, Bilbao Bizkaia Kutxa Fundacion Bancaria 14.06%, […]

Management: Andrés Arizkorreta García (Chairman and CEO)

Employees (2017): X XXX

Turnover (2017): EUR X XXX million

Profit (2017): EUR XXX million (EBITDA)

Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarrilles (CAF) is one of two leading Spanish rolling stock manufacturers, the other being Talgo. CAF has successfully implemented a strong internationalisation strategy in recent years.

The company’s 2017 financial results showed a slight increase in sales, […]

Internationalisation has been a goal of CAF for a long time due to […]

The following are among the largest orders of the recent past: A series of up to 100 multiple units for […]

Production sites

Today, CAF has X different manufacturing sites in X countries: […]

– CAF also operates maintenance facilities in cities such as […]

– In August 2017, CAF announced its intentions to establish a UK site which is to be located […]

Sites of final assembly for EMUs and DMUs

Country Site Products Remarks

Brazil […] […]

Employees: XXX

Total area: XXX,XXX m2

Production area: XX,XXX m2

Production capacity: XXX cars p.a.e

France Bagnères de Bigorre HST, EMU, DMU, metro, LRV, PC

Employees: 110

Total area: 42,000 m²

Production area: 23,500 m2

Production capacity: 50 cars p.a.e

[…]

Product segments

Segment Market shares

(2013-2017) Important platforms

Description and main customers of platform

EMU […] […] […]

DMU […] […] […]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

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Annex B: Fleet structures (Example) Italy Electric multiple units

Installed Base / Operator

Delivery / Operator (2013-2017)

Installed Base / Age distribution

Delivery / Manufacturer (2013-2017)

Installed Base / Top Speed

Delivery / Top Speed (2013-2017)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Trenitalia

Ente Autonomo Volturno

FerrovieNord

Metropolitana di Roma

Gruppo Torinese Trasporti

Ferrotramviaria

Others

Installed base / Operator [units]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Trenitalia

FerrovieNord

TPER

Sistemi Territoriali

Ente Autonomo Volturno

Ferrotramviaria

Others

Deliveries 2013-2017 / Operator [units]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

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No info before 1978 1978-1982 1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 2013-2017

Installed base / Age distribution [units]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

56%

27%

7%

5%3% 2%

Deliveries / Manufacturer [units]

Alstom

Stadler

CAF

Firema

AnsaldoBreda

Newag

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

total: ~250 units

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No info up to 80 80-99 100-119 120-139 140-160 over 160

Installed Base / Top speed [units in km/h]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

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No info up to 80 80-99 100-119 120-139 140-160 over 160

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© SCI Verkehr GmbH

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MULTIPLE UNITS GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS - SCI …...Forecast, Fleet, Suppliers, Procurement Projects...

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Transcript of MULTIPLE UNITS GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS - SCI …...Forecast, Fleet, Suppliers, Procurement Projects...