Multibagger stock ideas
17
-
Upload
ankit-goyal -
Category
Documents
-
view
2.665 -
download
4
description
Transcript of Multibagger stock ideas
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 1 of 16
Index of Contents
Preface
Approach I – Buying Stocks With Low Price in Relation to Earnings
Approach II – Buying Stocks With Low Price in Relation to Book Value
Approach III – Buying Stocks With Low Price in Relation to Liquidating Value
Approach IV – Buying Stocks Using Benjamin Graham’s Magic Multiple
A Universe of Stocks ‘On Sale’
2
4
6
8
10
11
© Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited
15, Khetan Bhavan. 198, J Tata Road, Churchgate, Mumbai - 20 Tel: (022) 6143-4055 | Fax: (022) 2202-8550 | E-mail: [email protected]
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 2 of 16
Preface
Stock markets had a bumper 2009. And those who invested at the right time would be laughing
their way to the banks. But what about those who missed the rally? They would certainly be
itching to make up for lost time and invest right away.
However, it may not be that easy anymore. The huge run up in stocks has done one harm. It has
made valuations expensive and thus there are fewer stocks that are available at cheap valuations
than what was the case in March 2009 when the current rally started.
But why look for cheap stocks? Will any good stock not suffice? Certainly not!
Buying stocks should not be different from buying things on sale in a supermarket or waiting for
the car companies to offer special incentives. The time to buy stocks is when they are on sale
i.e., selling cheap, and not when they are priced high because everyone wants to own them.
The objective of this report is to validate this very fact – stocks selling cheap tend to give better
returns over a long period as compared to those selling at expensive valuations, all things
remaining same.
As part of the analysis that went into preparing this report, we dug deeper into history and
studied whether the approach of buying cheaply valued stocks has delivered good returns over
the long run. For the purpose of our analysis, and to be in sync with the current times, we took a
time in history when the broader stock markets were expensively valued as they seem to be as of
now.
The year we have used as our base is 2000 - when the dot-com bubble was in its prime and the
benchmark BSE-Sensex was trading at around 23 times earnings.
And what has been the conclusion of our study?
Less valued stocks, bought even when the markets were seemingly expensive like they were in
the year 2000, have performed brilliantly over the next ten years. Whether one bought stocks
trading at low P/E, or low P/BV, or even low liquidation value (we will explain this in a bit), the
returns have been great.
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 3 of 16
Using this analysis as a backdrop, we have compiled some lists of stocks that pass these ‘low
priced’ criterion as of now. You can treat this as a universe from which to find your next multi-
bagger stocks.
But just a word of warning here – these lists present just the universe of stocks that pass these
criterion. One still needs to analyse a company’s past performance record, its management
credibility, and future prospects before making the final buying decisions.
We hope this report is of some help to you in your search for some brilliant long-term
investment opportunities.
Here’s to your long term financial well-being.
Warm regards,
Team Equitymaster
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 4 of 16
Approach I - Buying Stocks With Low Price in Relation to
Earnings
Stocks bought at low price/earnings (P/E) ratios offer higher earnings yields than stocks bought
at higher P/E ratios. The earnings yield is the yield that shareholders would receive if all the
earnings were paid out as a dividend.
Investing in stocks that are priced low in relation to earnings includes investments in companies
whose earnings are expected to grow in the future. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, ‘value’ and
‘growth’ are joined at the hip. A company priced low in relation to earnings, whose earnings are
expected to grow, is preferable to a similarly priced company whose earnings are not expected
to grow.
The fact that buying low P/E stocks can get you better returns than stocks trading at high P/E is
validated by the under-mentioned chart. It shows the average returns of stocks over the past 10
years across different range of P/E multiples.
Data Source: CMIE Prowess
Excludes banking & financial companies,
and stocks with market capitalisation below Rs 10 bn
As the chart shows, stocks in the year 2000 with P/E multiples of less than 5 times, or even
those with multiples of between 5 and 10 times, have generated the biggest returns over the
following ten years.
Remember we are talking of a year when the dot-com bubble was at its peak, and so were Indian
markets (BSE-Sensex) that were trading at a P/E of almost 23 times. Needless to say, returns
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
<5 5 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 25 >25
% R
etu
rns
ove
r 10
ye
ars
P/E in January 2000
Avg. return for stocks based on P/E
From a universe of 206 of BSE-500 stocks that were listed 10 years back
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 5 of 16
from the Sensex since then till date has been just around 200% that will form part of the
category that has generated the least return as per the above chart.
But even if one had picked up low P/E stocks (P/E of less than 10 times) then, the returns till
date would have been spectacular. As against this, those who picked up stocks with P/E
multiples of over 10 and 20 times have generated considerably lesser returns. The performance
of stocks trading at above 25 times has been poor to say the least.
It must be noted that the analysis for this chart excludes small-cap companies, or those with
market capitalisation of less than Rs 10 bn. This does away with the argument that the base for
fastest growing stocks might have been lower. The analysis also excludes stocks of banking and
financial companies, as P/E is not the right metric to assess their valuations. Price to book value
is, as we will study in the next chapter.
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 6 of 16
Approach II - Buying Stocks With Low Price in Relation
to Book Value
Apart from P/E, another ratio that is commonly used to value stocks is price to book value or
P/BV. This is arrived at by dividing the market price of a share with the respective company's
book value per share. Book value is equal to the shareholder's equity (share capital plus reserves
and surplus). Book value can also be arrived at by subtracting current liabilities and debt from
total assets.
Stocks priced at less than book value are purchased on the assumption that, in time, their market
price will reflect at least their stated book value, i.e., what the company itself has paid for its
own assets. All things remaining constant, such stocks generate higher returns over the long run
as compared to stocks that trade at higher P/BV ratios.
Data Source: CMIE Prowess
Excludes stocks with market capitalisation below Rs 10 bn
See for instance the chart above. Stocks trading at P/BV of less than 1 time or even 1.5 times in
the year 2000 have far outperformed those that traded at a higher valuation (1.5 times and
above). Analysis for this chart also excludes companies with market capitalisation of less than
Rs 10 bn.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
<1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2.0 2.0 to 3.0 >3.0
% R
etu
rns
ove
r 10
ye
ars
P/BV in January 2000
Avg. return for stocks based on P/BV
From a universe of 206 of BSE-500 stocks that were listed 10 years back
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 7 of 16
Based on this analysis, it becomes clear that buying a basket of low P/BV stocks may get you
outstanding returns over the long term. But you may do even better if you can determine which
of the low P/BV stocks are worth purchasing and which are about to go bankrupt. Looking for
companies with a good overall track record, and manageable to low debt among stocks trading
at discount to their book value can present great investment opportunities.
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 8 of 16
Approach III - Buying Stocks With Low Price in Relation
to Liquidating Value
The idea here is to buy stocks at a cost less than their net current asset value (NCAV), and
thereby giving no value to the fixed assets. But why just current assets? Because it includes
items like cash and other assets that can be turned into cash within one year, such as accounts
receivable and inventory, and is therefore a good measure of a company’s worth if it were to be
liquidated. This was a stock selection technique successfully employed by Benjamin Graham.
Graham believed that stocks selling below NCAV were worth more dead than alive. He stated if
a stock was selling below liquidating value, either the price is too low or the company should be
liquidated. He also states that stocks are ‘real’ bargains as per the NCAV method only if these
companies are in no danger of squandering these assets, and have formerly shown a large
earning power on the market price.
The fact that the NCAV rule works cannot be doubted. But it is difficult to find stocks that sell
at a discount to NCAV in bull markets. It was the case in 2000 as well. While there were several
stocks that were trading at low P/E and P/BV, but not many were trading at discount to their
respective NCAV.
As such, for our analysis, we have studied the premium on NCAV at which stocks from our
universe were trading at then. And the result is that - stocks that were trading at the lowest
premium to the NCAV (less than 5 times NCAV) in the year 2000 have returned the most in the
subsequent ten years. As compared to this, stocks trading at multiples of more than 5 times
NCAV have turned out a poor performance over these years.
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 9 of 16
MC-Market capitalisation, NCAV – Net current asset value; Data Source: CMIE Prowess
Excludes banking & financial companies, and stocks with market capitalisation below Rs 10 bn
0
750
1,500
2,250
3,000
<5 5 to 10 10 to 15 >15
% R
etu
rns
ove
r 10
ye
ars
Avg. return for stocks based on MC/NCAV
From a universe of 206 of BSE-500 stocks that were listed 10 years back; Excludes bank stocks
MC/NCAV (Times) as in March 2000
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 10 of 16
Approach IV - Buying Stocks Using Benjamin Graham’s
Magic Multiple
If you are confused which of the first two ratios - P/E or P/BV - to use to determine whether a
stock is trading cheap, Benjamin Graham has a ‘magic’ formula to suggest!
It is the multiple of a stock’s P/E and its P/BV.
Graham has put an upper limit to the output of this ratio - 22.5. This he derived using a
maximum P/E of 15 times, and maximum P/BV of 1.5 times - the highest multiples he was
ready to pay for stocks.
Our analysis shows that, on applying this multiple to our universe, stocks where the output of
P/E multiplied by P/BV was lower then 22.5, have generated more returns than those whose
output was greater than 22.5.
Data Source: CMIE Prowess
Excludes banking & financial companies,
and stocks with market capitalisation below Rs 10 bn
0
450
900
1,350
1,800
<10 10 to 22.5 >22.5
% R
etu
rns
ove
r 10
ye
ars
Graham's multiple as in January 2000
Avg. return for stocks based on Graham's multiple
The Most Profitable Approach to Stock Picking February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 11 of 16
A Universe of Stocks ‘On Sale’
After reading the above approaches to picking up cheap stocks, you must be wondering whether
this can work in the current environment where stocks across the board are looking expensive.
Before we dispel your doubts, remember that we have done the above analysis with the year
2000 as a base - a year when the dot-com bubble was in its prime and the broader markets were
trading at expensive levels.
Even now, when the Sensex is trading at around similar valuation levels, you can still find cheap
stocks using all these four approaches. We will make your task easier by producing four lists of
stocks using all these methods.
But we must warn you that all these lists present just the universe of stocks that pass these
criterion. One still needs to analyse a company’s past performance record, its management
credibility, and future prospects before making the final buying decisions.
In short, it is important to do a proper homework before jumping on to opportunities that present
them as having low P/E, low P/BV, low price as compared to liquidating value, and low as per
Graham’s ‘magic’ multiple.
These valuations criteria can just be considered as one of the important stepping-stones in your
search for multi-bagger stocks.
But these are stones you would not want to trip over!
So read the next four pages very carefully. You never know your next multi-bagger(s) could be
out of these.
Disclaimer: Stocks listed in the following four tables are just representative of the ideas
and must not be treated as recommendations from Equitymaster
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 12 of 16
I. Stocks With Low Price in Relation to Earnings
Company Name P/E
Hindustan Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 2.52
Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 4.56
Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. 4.77
J K Cement Ltd. 5.07
Kesoram Industries Ltd. 5.39
S R F Ltd. 5.50
Indian Oil Corpn. Ltd. 5.71
Madras Cements Ltd. 5.83
Birla Corporation Ltd. 6.06
Strides Arcolab Ltd. 6.39
Electrosteel Castings Ltd. 6.70
Graphite India Ltd. 6.71
Binani Cement Ltd. 6.76
Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd. 7.16
Heidelberg Cement India Ltd. 7.35
Alok Industries Ltd. 7.37
Prism Cement Ltd. 7.42
Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corpn. Ltd. 7.71
Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. 7.71
Shree Cement Ltd. 7.97
Geodesic Ltd. 8.00
India Cements Ltd. 8.10
Rolta India Ltd. 8.11
Gitanjali Gems Ltd. 8.29
A B G Shipyard Ltd. 8.29
Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. 8.39
Nava Bharat Ventures Ltd. 8.45
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Co. Ltd. 8.57
Monnet Ispat & Energy Ltd. 9.07
Dalmia Cement (Bharat) Ltd. 9.26 Excludes banking & financial companies,
and stocks with market capitalisation below Rs 10 bn
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 13 of 16
II. Stocks With Low Price in Relation to Book Value
Company Name P/BV
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. 0.47
Gitanjali Gems Ltd. 0.56
Essar Shipping Ports & Logistics Ltd. 0.71
Alok Industries Ltd. 0.74
Reliance Communications Ltd. 0.74
Videocon Industries Ltd. 0.78
Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. 0.82
D C M Shriram Consolidated Ltd. 0.83
Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. 0.87
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Co. Ltd. 0.90
Moser Baer India Ltd. 0.91
Vijaya Bank 0.93
Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd. 0.93
Oriental Bank Of Commerce 0.93
Indian Overseas Bank 0.96
Syndicate Bank 0.97
Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd. 0.99
Uco Bank 1.00
Federal Bank Ltd. 1.00
Karnataka Bank Ltd. 1.03
Amtek Auto Ltd. 1.03
Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd. 1.03
Chennai Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 1.05
Bajaj Auto Finance Ltd. 1.07
Bank Of Maharashtra 1.07
India Cements Ltd. 1.09
J K Cement Ltd. 1.11
Ballarpur Industries Ltd. 1.11
South Indian Bank Ltd. 1.11
Electrosteel Castings Ltd. 1.12 Excludes stocks with market capitalisation below Rs 10 bn
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 14 of 16
III. Stocks With Low Price in Relation to Liquidating Value
Company Name MC/NCAV
Gitanjali Gems Ltd. 0.7
Eicher Motors Ltd. 1.4
Omaxe Ltd. 1.4
I V R Prime Urban Developers Ltd. 1.4
Jai Corp Ltd. 1.8
Ingersoll-Rand (India) Ltd. 1.9
Puravankara Projects Ltd. 2.0
Mahindra Lifespace Developers Ltd. 2.0
Parsvnath Developers Ltd. 2.0
Redington (India) Ltd. 2.2
P T C India Ltd. 2.2
Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd. 2.3
U T V Software Communications Ltd. 2.3
Edelweiss Capital Ltd. 2.5
Zuari Industries Ltd. 2.5
Graphite India Ltd. 2.7
Maharashtra Seamless Ltd. 2.8
Electrosteel Castings Ltd. 2.9
I C I India Ltd. 3.0
Dredging Corpn. Of India Ltd. 3.2
Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd. 3.3
S Kumars Nationwide Ltd. 3.3
Sobha Developers Ltd. 3.4
B E M L Ltd. 3.4
Peninsula Land Ltd. 3.4
Geodesic Ltd. 3.5
Anant Raj Inds. Ltd. 3.5
Shriram E P C Ltd. 3.8
Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. 4.1
Infotech Enterprises Ltd. 4.1 MC - Market capitalisation, NCAV - Net Current Asset Value;
Excludes banking & financial cos., and stocks with market capitalisation below Rs 10 bn
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 15 of 16
IV. Stocks With Low Price in Relation to Graham’s Multiple
Company Name Graham multiple
Hindustan Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 2.8
Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. 4.1
Gitanjali Gems Ltd. 4.6
Alok Industries Ltd. 5.5
J K Cement Ltd. 5.6
Kesoram Industries Ltd. 6.5
S R F Ltd. 6.5
Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd. 6.7
Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. 6.9
Electrosteel Castings Ltd. 7.5
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Co. Ltd. 7.7
Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 7.9
India Cements Ltd. 8.8
Indian Oil Corpn. Ltd. 9.2
Graphite India Ltd. 9.3
Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corpn. Ltd. 9.4
D C M Shriram Consolidated Ltd. 9.8
Videocon Industries Ltd. 10.3
Birla Corporation Ltd. 11.2
Madras Cements Ltd. 11.3
Heidelberg Cement India Ltd. 11.5
Dalmia Cement (Bharat) Ltd. 11.6
Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. 11.7
Monnet Ispat & Energy Ltd. 12.2
A B G Shipyard Ltd. 13.7
Prism Cement Ltd. 14.2
Geodesic Ltd. 15.1
Rolta India Ltd. 15.6
Zuari Industries Ltd. 15.8
Binani Cement Ltd. 15.8 Note: Data as on January 20, 2010; Click on the company name to get more information on the stock;
Excludes banking & financial companies, and stocks with market capitalisation below Rs 10 bn;
Source (for all tables): CMIE Prowess
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks February, 2010
Four Proven Approaches to Picking Multibagger Stocks Page 16 of 16
To know more about how Equitymaster can help you earn extraordinary returns, call us at 1800-
209-3786 or Email us at [email protected]. We will be delighted to hear from you!
Disclaimer
This booklet a) is for Private Circulation only and not for sale. b) is only for information purposes and Equitymaster Agora Research Private Ltd (Equitymaster) is not providing any professional/investment advice through it and Equitymaster disclaims warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, as to any matter/content contained in this booklet, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Equitymaster will not be responsible for any loss or liability incurred by the user as a consequence of his taking any investment decisions based on the contents of this booklet. Use of this booklet is at the user’s own risk. The user must make his own investment decisions based on his specific investment objective and financial position and using such independent advisors as he believes necessary. Information contained in this Report is believed to be reliable but Equitymaster does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
