Multi-Step Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS)
Transcript of Multi-Step Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS)
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Multi-Step Automatic Calibration Scheme(MACS)Terri S. Hogue
Soroosh Sorooshian, Hoshin Gupta,Claire Tomkins, and Travis Booth
October 22, 2002
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Advanced Calibration Techniques NWSRFS
AHPS = Calibration Issues
~ 4000 River Forecast Points
Small % with calibrations
Manual – reliable, quality,
but TIME-CONSUMING
Automatic – reliable, quality,
and EFFICIENT (fewer man-hours)
= Within existing code !!
GOAL:
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
ManualUser knowledgeExcellent model calibrationsComplicated and highly labor intensiveExpertise not easily transferred
AutomaticUser knowledgeSpeed and power of computerObjective procedureEasy to useResults not generally acceptable
Manual vs. Automatic Calibration
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Optimization Algorithm (SCE-UA)
−= ∑=
n
ttobstsim QQnDRMS
1
2,, )(1
Objective Function(Root Mean Square)
Historical Data
Prec
ip. (
mm
)Fl
ow (c
ms)
Time (days)
Automatic Calibration
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
4.- Flatness Flat near optimum with significantly different parameter sensitivities
3.- Roughness Rough surface with discontinuous derivatives
2.- Local Optima
Many small "pits" in each region
More than one main convergence region
1.- Regions of Attraction
Difficulties in Optimization
5.- Shape Long and curved ridges
Development of “Global Search Algorithm: SCE-UA”Duan, Gupta, and Sorooshian, 1992
Response Surface
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Performance: SCE-UA vs. Simplex
Simplex
SCE - UA
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Prec
ip. (
mm
)Fl
ow (c
ms)
Time (days)
Results from Automatic single criteria calibration of SAC-SMA model
Good fit to higher flowsPoor fit to low flows
Motivation for Multi-step / Multi-objective
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Multi-step Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS)
3-step automatic calibration process
Use of different objective functions with various model parameters
Process:1) Baseflow Parameters2) High Flow Events – Snow melt, etc.3) Fine-tuning – baseflow, ET parameters …
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
SNOW-17SCF SIMFMAX MFMIN
SAC-SMA
Upper ZoneUZTWM PCTIMUZFWM UZK
ZPERC REXP
LZTWM LZFSM LZFPMLZSK LZPK PFREE
SAC-SMA
Lower Zone3 - LOG (6)
( )2,,∑ −=tobsQtsimQ LOGLOGLOG
1 - LOG (16)
Multi-step Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS)
−= ∑=
n
ttobstsim QQnDRMS
1
2,, )(1
2 – DRMS (10)
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Methods for Calibration
15 Headwater Basins – varying size (160-5195 km2)
10 lumped basins5 multi-level basins (elevation bands)
~ 40 years historical dataCalibration: ~ 11 yearsValidation: ~ 40 years (entire period)
RFC parameter ranges RFC statistics / hydrographs for evaluationDRMS, %Bias, Monthly statistics, etc…
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Office ofHydrology
Test Basins - NWS
15 Study Sites
Semi-distributed“multi-tiered”** Need for better methodology
2
3
6
1
3
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Overall DRMS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
NC-1NC-2NC-3NC-4NC-5NC-6
SE-1SE-2SE-3
CB-1CB-2CB-3
AK-1AK2
Study Basins
DR
MS
RFCMACS
Evaluation of Calibrations
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Evaluation of Calibrations
Overall Percent Bias
-30-25-20-15-10
-505
10152025
NC
-1
NC
-2
NC
-3
NC
-4
NC
-5
NC
-6
SE
-1
SE
-2
SE
-3
CB
-1
CB
-2
CB
-3
AK
-1
AK
2
Study Basins
%B
ias
RFCMACS
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
Multi-step Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS)
NCRFC
South River, IA
SERFC
Flint River, GA
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
AKRFC
Talkeetna River
Multi-step Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS)
180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 2800
5
10
15
Tra
nsf
orm
ed
Flo
ws
(cm
s) Obs oRFC−−MACS −
Water Year1962
LMRFC
Leaf River
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
CBRFC – previous work !
• Previous rationale: examine the proportional area and contribution to flow of the three regions. The region considered to make the most significant contribution to flow, which may also comprise the largest proportion of total area, is calibrated initially. Other elevations bands follow, typically lower region next and lastly upper zone.
• In order to not bias the automatic calibration results, mid-point values of each parameter range were used for the parameters not being calibrated in the initial run.
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
CBRFC Basins
Gila (GILN5)1976-1987 1950-1993
RFC MACS RFC MACS% Bias 6.57 2.68 -4.36 -5.4DRMS 10.186 8.677 8.562 7.315
Virgin (NFUV1)1977-1988 1951-1998RFC MACS RFC MACS
% Bias 4.69 3.98 -15.15 -2.89DRMS 2 1.97 2.239 2.199
Animas (DRGC2)1982-1993 1950-1994
RFC MACS RFC MACS% Bias 1.69 0.76 -0.12 0.72DRMS 10.718 8.82 9.873 9.506
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
CBRFC Basins
Monthly %Bias: 44-yr. Period Basin DRGC2
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan.
March May Ju
ly
Sept.
Nov.
Month
%B
ias
RFC
MACS
Flow Group %Bias: 44-yr. Period Basin DRGC2
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
5.54- 17.73- 55.39- 177.26- 553.93+
Flow Group
%B
ias
RFC
MACS
Monthly %Bias: 43-yr. Period Basin GILN5
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan.
Feb.
March
April
MayJu
ne July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct. Nov.
Dec.
Month
%B
ias
RFC
MACS
Flow Group %Bias: 43-yr. Period Basin GILN5
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
0-1.7
7-5.5
4-17
.73-
55.39
-17
7.26-
553.9
3+
Flow Group
%B
ias
RFC
MACS
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
CBRFC Basins - Gila
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
CBRFC Basins - Animas
Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian AreasSAHRASAHRA
MACS – Comments
Time-saving, reliable, quality calibrations Application to 15 Basins / 5 RegionsStatistics and Hydrographs comparable to RFCs
Application / Implementation to other RFC regions in progress
More Work on Multi-tiered systems (CBRFC)