Multi-Index Drought Monitoring: A Global Drought...
Transcript of Multi-Index Drought Monitoring: A Global Drought...
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring:
A Global Drought GeoServer
Amir AghaKouchak, Zengchao Hao, and
Navid Nakhjiri
University of California, Irvine
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
Different drought indices based on different climate variables (e.g.,
Precipitation, soil moisture):
• Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
• Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI)
• Standardized runoff Index (SRI)
• Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
SPI 2012-1
-120 -100 -80
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SSI 2012-1
-120 -100 -80
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PSI 2012-1
-120 -100 -80
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SPI 2012-2
-120 -100 -80
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SSI 2012-2
-120 -100 -80
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PSI 2012-2
-120 -100 -80
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SPI 2012-3
-120 -100 -80
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SSI 2012-3
-120 -100 -80
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PSI 2012-3
-120 -100 -80
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SPI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
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SSI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
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PSI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
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Multi-Index Drought Monitoring SPI 2007-1
-120 -100 -80
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SSI 2007-1
-120 -100 -80
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MSDI 2007-1
-120 -100 -80
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SPI 2007-2
-120 -100 -80
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SSI 2007-2
-120 -100 -80
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MSDI 2007-2
-120 -100 -80
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SPI 2007-3
-120 -100 -80
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SSI 2007-3
-120 -100 -80
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MSDI 2007-3
-120 -100 -80
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SPI 2007-4
-120 -100 -80
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SSI 2007-4
-120 -100 -80
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MSDI 2007-4
-120 -100 -80
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Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
3-, 6- and 12-month drought conditions based on Standardized Precipitation
Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) for Climate Division 3 in
California.
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
A Multi-Index Approach Using a Joint Distribution Function
),( yYxXPp
)(),( YGXFCp
C is the copula and F(X) and G(Y) are the marginal cumulative distribution
functions of precipitation (X) and soil moisture (Y), respectively
Multi-Index Standardized Drought Index (MSDI)
pMSDI 1
where ɸ is the standard normal distribution function.
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
Deriving the Joint Distribution of Precipitation and Soil Moisture
)(),( YGXFCp
Non-Parametric Models Yue et al., 1999
where n is the length of the observations; and mk is the number of the pair (xi, yi) for xi ≤ xk and yi ≤ yk
112.044.0),(
nmyxP kkk
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
3-month SPI, SSI, MSDI
for Climate Division 3 in
California.
Monthly precipitation
and soil moisture from
1/1932 to 12/2010
Precipitation : NCDC
Soil Moisture: CPC
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
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3
4
5
Year
3--Month
SPI SSI JDI
1990 1992
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
1988
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
1976
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
MSDI
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
3-month SPI, SSI, MSDI
for Climate Division 5 in
California.
Monthly precipitation
and soil moisture from
1/1932 to 12/2010
Precipitation : NCDC
Soil Moisture: CPC
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Year
3--Month
SPI SSI JDI
1976 1978
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
1988 1990 1992
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
MSDI
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
SPI 2007-1
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
45
SSI 2007-1
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
45
MSDI 2007-1
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
45
SPI 2007-2
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
45
SSI 2007-2
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
45
MSDI 2007-2
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
45
SPI 2007-3
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
45
SSI 2007-3
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
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MSDI 2007-3
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
45
SPI 2007-4
-120 -100 -80
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35
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SSI 2007-4
-120 -100 -80
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35
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MSDI 2007-4
-120 -100 -80
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1-Month SPI and SSI Derived
Using NASA MERRA-LAND
Precipitation and soil moisture
Data.
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
SPI 2007-1
-120 -100 -80
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35
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SSI 2007-1
-120 -100 -80
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35
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MSDI 2007-1
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
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SPI 2007-2
-120 -100 -80
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35
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SSI 2007-2
-120 -100 -80
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35
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MSDI 2007-2
-120 -100 -80
30
35
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SPI 2007-3
-120 -100 -80
30
35
40
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SSI 2007-3
-120 -100 -80
30
35
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MSDI 2007-3
-120 -100 -80
30
35
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SPI 2007-4
-120 -100 -80
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SSI 2007-4
-120 -100 -80
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35
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MSDI 2007-4
-120 -100 -80
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1-Month SPI and SSI Derived
Using NASA MERRA-LAND
Precipitation and soil moisture
Data.
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
1-Month SPI and SSI Derived
Using NASA MERRA-LAND
Precipitation and soil moisture
Data.
SPI 2012-1
a30354045
SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1
SPI 2012-2
b30354045
SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2
SPI 2012-3
c30354045
SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3
SPI 2012-4
d
-120 -100 -80
30354045
SSI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
MSDI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
0
2
4
SPI 2012-1
a30354045
SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1
SPI 2012-2
b30354045
SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2
SPI 2012-3
c30354045
SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3
SPI 2012-4
d
-120 -100 -80
30354045
SSI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
MSDI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
0
2
4
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
Probability of detection (POD) of drought using 1-month SPI, SSI and MSDI
Month
PO
D
SPI 2012-1
a30354045
SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1
SPI 2012-2
b30354045
SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2
SPI 2012-3
c30354045
SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3
SPI 2012-4
d
-120 -100 -80
30354045
SSI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
MSDI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
0
2
4
SPI 2012-1
a30354045
SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1
SPI 2012-2
b30354045
SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2
SPI 2012-3
c30354045
SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3
SPI 2012-4
d
-120 -100 -80
30354045
SSI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
MSDI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
0
2
4
SPI 2012-1
a30354045
SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1
SPI 2012-2
b30354045
SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2
SPI 2012-3
c30354045
SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3
SPI 2012-4
d
-120 -100 -80
30354045
SSI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
MSDI 2012-4
-120 -100 -80
0
2
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SPI 2012-04 SSI 2012-04 MSDI 2012-04
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
0.2
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0.8
1
a
SPI SSI MSDI
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
0.2
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1
Month
b
SPI SSI MSDI
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
Probability of detection (POD) of drought using 1-month SPI, SSI and MSDI
Month
PO
D
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
a
SPI SSI MSDI
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Month
b
SPI SSI MSDI
Probability of detection (POD) of drought using 6-month SPI, SSI and MSDI
Month
PO
D
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
a
SPI SSI MSDI
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Month
b
SPI SSI MSDI
A Global Drought GeoServer
http://drought.eng.uci.edu/index.html
A Global Drought GeoServer
http://drought.eng.uci.edu/index.html
A Global Drought GeoServer
http://drought.eng.uci.edu/index.html
A Global Drought GeoServer
Soil Moisture
Precipitation
Soil Moisture & Precipitation
A Global Drought GeoServer
http://drought.eng.uci.edu/index.html
3-, 6
-Mon
th Forecast
~ 30 Years Satellite-Based Rainfall Data
1979 NOW
9-18
Mon
ths Re
al-Tim
e
A Global Drought GeoServer
http://amir.eng.uci.edu/publications/12_RG_Drought_CDR_ERL.pdf
Short-term forecasts of
Drought Likelihood
based on CFSv2
simulations
Thank You for
Your Attention