MtnClim 2008 Abstracts 060308a Poster A TALE OF TWO TAILS ANDERSON, MICHAEL L. California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA 95821 California's climate is a tale of extremes. In the southeast desert, temperatures can soar and little precipitation falls. Contrast that with the north coast where temperatures fluctuate less, but precipitation can soar. In the mountains of the Sierra Nevada, both temperature and precipitation can fluctuate wildly. Observations from the 20th century indicate that these wild fluctuations have become wilder in the latter part of the century. In this tale of two tails, observations of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and runoff are examined with a focus on mountain regions. Annual totals and averages, extremes, and year-to-year fluctuations are used to determine to what extent observations have become more extreme. Some thoughts are then provided on the potential for future extreme evolution with climate change. Poster LINKING SOIL COMMUNITIES AND TREE SPECIES IN RELATION TO CARBON CYCLING IN HIGH ELEVATION FORESTS AYRES, EDWARD (1), STELTZER, HEIDI (1), WALL, DIANA H. (1,2) (1) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory and (2) Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499 There is some evidence to suggest that leaf litter decomposes faster beneath the tree species from which it was derived than beneath a different tree species, which is called ‘home-field advantage’. We tested this hypothesis for three common high elevation tree species, trembling aspen, lodgepole pine, and Engelmann spruce, in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado. Leaf litter from each tree species was allowed to decompose in stands dominated by each tree species in a factorial design. Litter mass loss was greater (~8%) for each tree species when it decomposed in its ‘home’ stand (i.e. the stand dominated by the same tree species), indicating that home-field advantage occurred. In a related laboratory experiment, litter from each tree species decomposed in the presence of soil biota collected beneath each tree species. Decomposition, measured as CO2 production, was greater for each tree species in the presence of its ‘home’ soil biota (i.e. soil biota that occurred beneath the same tree species), indicating that soil biota are responsible for home-field advantage. Climate change, bark beetle outbreaks, and other factors are altering the structure of high elevation forests. However, tree species and soil communities may respond differently to these drivers of change, which may disrupt the decomposition-related home-field advantage and alter ecosystem carbon balance. Poster SOUTHERN SIERRA CRITICAL ZONE OBSERVATORY (CZO): HYDROCHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS, SCIENCE AND MEASUREMENT STATEGY BALES, R. (1), BOYER, B. (2), CONKLIN, M. (1), GOULDEN, M. (3), HOPMANS, J. (4), HUNSAKER, C. (5), JOHNSON, D. (6), KIRCHNER, J. (2), LIU, F. (1), AND TAGUE, C. (7) (1) University of California, Merced, (2) University of California, Berkeley, (3) University of California, Irvine, (4) University of California, Davis, (5) Pacific Southwest Research Station, US Forest Service, (6) University of Nevada, and (7) University of California, Santa Barbara

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The Southern Sierra CZO is a platform for integrated, multi-disciplinary research that will provide a process-level understanding of the critical zone, establish a foundation for long-term hydrologic, (bio)geochemical and ecological studies, and improve the predictive ability of Earth system models. The underlying hypothesis is that the distribution of soil moisture throughout the catchments controls (bio)geochemical processes, including weathering and the extent of coupling among the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Mixed conifer forest dominate the observatory, which is located in the rain-snow transition zone (1,500-2,000 m), a zone that characteristically undergoes rapid seasonal changes, going from snowcover to wet soil to dry soil over a 1-2 month period. Steep gradients in temperature and precipitation patterns, along both elevation and aspect, result in a distinct lag in spring runoff in going from lower to higher elevation. Streams draining the catchments are primarily sodium and calcium bicarbonate waters. Stream total ion concentrations measured at the top of the catchments above are about half of those at lower elevation. These streams exhibit a larger average pH range (6.7-7.1) than those at lower elevation (7.2-7.1). The stepped topography is a landscape that provides links between soil formation and weathering rates to landform evolution. Our spatial sampling strategy is to capture key topographic features (slope, aspect, elevation, soil depth, streams) and use multiple tracers to characterize both longer term processes (millennia) and short term responses to current conditions. Our specific geochemical measurement strategy includes: i) year-round sampling of stream dissolved and suspended material, ii) isotopic, geochemical sampling to infer water sources, flowpaths and residence times, iii) temperature and electrical conductivity measurements at high frequency and high spatial resolution in streams, iv) geochemical and cosmogenic radionuclide measurements to provide a longer-term context in which to assess extreme events and their associated material fluxes, v) seasonally integrated measurements of deposition, and vi) soil-water sampling in different landscapes and along flowpaths. Invited Keynote Talk ADVANCES IN MOUNTAIN CLIMATE RESEARCH BARRY, ROGER G. NSIDC/CIRES and Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO The paper gives an overview of recent advances in research into mountain meteorology and climatology. Regional coverage of mountain climates is steadily increasing, particularly in central-southern Asia and the Andes. The Mesoscale Alpine Project has provided much new insight into orographic precipitation and wind systems (gap and foehn winds especially). There is increasing use of sounders and profilers in local wind and lee wave research, Satellite and airborne remote sensing of snow and glaciers in mountain terrain has had major achievements (the Cold Land Processes Experiment and the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space project, for example). Finally, climate change in mountains is receiving increased attention in the Alps, North America and the Andes. Examples are given of some of this work. Talk INFERRING THE ROLE OF CLIMATE IN THE DECLINE OF THE AMERICAN PIKA BEEVER, ERIK (1); RAY, CHRIS (2); MOTE, PHILIP (3); AND WILKENING, JENNIFER (4) (1) USGS, (2) University of Colorado-Boulder, (3) University of Washington, (4) University of Colorado -Boulder Populations of the American pika are rapidly disappearing throughout the Great Basin, especially where pika habitats (taluses) are confined to lower elevations. We present evidence that these losses are accelerating in a pattern that suggests effects of recent climate change. However, these data are well suited to testing alternative hypotheses regarding the influence of climate on a species’ distribution. We propose two hypotheses, one invoking effects of climate change within the past 60 years and the other invoking cumulative effects of climate over this same period. We employ a novel method for hindcasting climate over the past 60 years within each of 24 pika habitats, based on correlating data from the Historical Climate Network with our own recent data on talus microclimates. We consider several climate

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statistics as metrics of potential stress faced by pikas, including summer heat stress (average June-August temperature and number of days above 28 deg C) and winter cold stress (number of days below -5 deg C). For each of the 24 habitats, we model each statistic as a metric of cumulative climate (e.g., average over 60 years) or climate change (e.g., difference between two 30-year periods). We use an information-theoretic approach to compare support for different climate metrics (including multivariate models) as predictors of pika persistence across these 24 habitats. Poster RIBBON FOREST AND SNOW CONDITIONS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, MONTANA BEKKER, MATTHEW F. (1), AND FAGRE, DANIEL B. (2) (1) Department of Geography, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602, (2) USGS Biological Resources Division, West Glacier, MT 59936 Linear patterns of subalpine forests termed ribbon forest have been described in several locations in the Rocky Mountains. The origin and maintenance of these patterns have been attributed to wind-snowdrift interactions and underlying microtopography, but the dynamics of ribbon forests have not been well studied and are poorly understood. We examined the structure and dynamics of ribbons dominated by subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) and Engelmann spruce (Picea Engelmannii) in Preston Park, a glacial valley located in central Glacier National Park, Montana. We used dendrochronology and field measurements of snow depth and solar radiation to explain the timing and magnitude of advancement of ribbon forests into meadows. The species, diameter, and height of all trees, and seedlings >30 cm in height were measured in seven 2-m wide transects spanning six meadows, and 60% (n=330) of stems were cored or sectioned to determine tree ages. Winter and spring snow depth were measured along the same transects. Seedling establishment was dense, but almost exclusively limited to the east and north sides of meadows. Although forest-meadow edge patterns seemed to suggest continuous and recent invasion, tree ages indicated episodic establishment, with very few seedlings younger than 40 yr. Tree establishment is controlled by snow depth patterns, which are influenced by the pacific decadal oscillation and endogenous feedback between ribbons and snow deposition on west and south sides of meadows, enhanced snowmelt due to increased solar radiation on north and east sides of meadows, temperature, and microtopographic variability. Poster HIGH-ELEVATION PRIMARY PRODUCTION DRIVEN BY CONTRASTING EFFECTS OF GROWING SEASON LENGTH AND SOIL MOISTURE BERDANIER, AARON B. (1) AND KLEIN, JULIA A. (1,2) (1) Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, (2) Department of Forest, Rangeland and Watershed Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 While temperature is a dominant factor in high elevation ecosystems, precipitation exerts a strong influence on their structure and function. In the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, annual precipitation is dominated by winter snowfall. Snow influences vegetation by affecting both the length of the growing season and soil moisture availability. In a pilot study in 2007, we collected samples of aboveground biomass from 7 alpine and subalpine sites in Colorado. Across all sites, aboveground biomass decreased significantly with increasing winter precipitation. This response was likely due to differences in growing season length, although the interaction of soil moisture and growing season length is difficult to separate. We hypothesized that primary production would increase with an increase in growing season length. However, with low snowpack or rainfall, soil moisture is likely to constrain production below predicted levels. To explore this issue, we are establishing an experiment to examine the independent and combined effects of growing season length and soil moisture on net primary production. We will increase growing season length and summer water inputs factorially in dry and wet sites to test our hypothesis of contrasting effects. This work can help to enhance our understanding of how snow affects

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vegetative production and inform how earlier snowmelt and soil moisture changes due to climate change may affect plant production. Invited Talk ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE ON US FEDERAL LANDS BLATE, GEOFFREY M. AAAS Science & Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. EPA, Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC 20460 The combination of climate change and other environmental changes is expected to alter the future structure, composition, and functioning of ecosystems as well as the goods and services these ecosystems provide. Adaptations—adjustments in human social systems (e.g., management)—that address the anticipated adverse impacts and capitalize on any positive effects of climate change may help maintain or even enhance future ecosystem services. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is completing 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAP) to better understand climate change and its interaction with other environmental changes to affect biodiversity and the future condition of ecosystems and natural resources. SAP 4.4 reviewed potential adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems that could be incorporated into ecosystem and natural resource management and planning. An important innovation in this SAP was to explore adaptation options by first considering the management context (including desired ecosystem condition and resource management goals) and the processes organizations use to achieve their goals. Using this approach, adaptation options (and potential implementation barriers and opportunities) were explored for six federally managed lands and waters: National Forests, National Parks, National Wildlife Refuges, Wild and Scenic Rivers, National Estuaries, and Marine Protected Areas. A key conclusion was that many of the best management practices resource managers already use to address ‘traditional’ stressors of concern (e.g., pollution, invasive species, and fragmentation) will also reduce any exacerbation of these stressors by climate change. Strategic adjustment of these best management practices could enhance ecosystem resilience to climate change. I will present seven general adaptation approaches identified in the report to stimulate discussion on how federal land managers might use this information to further develop adaptation efforts. Invited Talk CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CARBON AND WATER CYCLES IN HIGH ELEVATION ANDEAN ECOSYSTEMS: MONITORING AND INSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS BROWN, SANDRA Soil-Water Environmental Group, University of British Columbia, Vancouver Canada The government of Colombia is facilitating research in high mountain Andean ecosystems to provide a scientific base for understanding climate change and land use impacts on water and carbon cycles. One component of the program has been the development of a protocol for the characterization of carbon and water cycles, which focuses on the biophysical processes, incorporates anthropogenic impacts, and focuses on water for downstream use and users. This approach is unique in that climate and land use are considered jointly, and carbon and water are linked within the decision making framework at the national and local levels. The protocol was developed with scientific input from Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, Canada and USA, and aims to establish a monitoring system to understand the impacts of both climate change and land use on the capacity of these high mountain ecosystems to regulate water flow and to accumulate carbon. The concept of pools and flow paths is utilized to investigate the impacts of climate and land use on the various compartments and ultimately on carbon and water balances. Anthropogenic influences such as ploughing, burning, forest harvesting and grazing are explicitly included. The protocol is organized in a series of blocks representing activities, analysis and decisions taken; and supporting documentation on norms, criteria and procedures. The blocks include: introduction, sub-watershed selection, research questions, secondary data, monitoring network design, monitoring program, and data systemization and analysis. The program is currently being implemented, and aims to support

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management strategies for adaptation to climate change by providing a scientific information base on the processes affecting the carbon and water cycles; their interactions, dynamics, and variability; the practices that optimize storage; and the potential implications for local communities. Poster ECTOMYCORRHIZAL FUNGI AT ALPINE TREELINE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS: BASELINE DATA AND A REVIEW IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE CRIPPS, CATHY L (1), HORAK, EGON (2) AND K. MOHATT (1) (1) Plant Sciences and Plant Pathology Department, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, (2) Institute for Microbiology, University of Innsbruck, A 6020, Innsbruck, Austria. Fungi are critical to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems yet their ecological significance is often overlooked in the context of climate change. The 1.5 million species in the Kingdom Fungi exist as saprotrophs, parasites and mutualists which includes several types of mycorrhizal fungi. Ectomycorrhizal fungi associate with woody plants, enhancing nutrient uptake and providing protection from drought, grazers, pathogens and other stressors. In addition, we now know their ecosystem services include nutrient recycling, mobilization of N and P from organic polymers, release of nutrients from mineral rock, carbon sequestration, aggregation of soil, and promotion of moisture-holding capacity in soil. These in turn affect larger ecosystem processes such as erosion and water-shed dynamics. Ectomycorrhizal fungi at tree line are primarily Basidiomycetes and Ascomycetes that only occasionally produce fruiting bodies to indicate their presence. In addition, fungi are less well known than other organisms with an estimated 5% of species named. However, significant research on ectomycorrhizal communities has progressed largely due largely through the use of molecular methods for identification of fungi on roots. Therefore we know that the composition of ectomycorrhizal communities changes across the ecological border of alpine tree line due to host specificity on many levels. In the Rockies arctic-alpine fungi occur above treeline with Salix, Dryas and Betula; some of these are used as model systems to detect change in arctic-alpine habitats. Below tree line a different set of fungi associate with conifers such as spruce and fir, and whitebark pine. Here we 1) present baseline data on the biodiversity and ecology of ectomycorrhizal fungi above and below treeline in the Rocky Mountains and 2) review studies on fungi in cold dominated regions with an environmental change component to provide context with putative predictive value. The physiological functioning of each mycorrhizal fungal species is unique. Therefore, as treeline is altered by temperature or the decline of particular tree species such as whitebark pine, the basic microbial functioning is expected to change as well. Poster PUTTING CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY INTO PRACTICE FOR WILDLIFE AND WILDLAND CONSERVATION CROSS, MOLLY S. (1), TABOR, GARY M. (2), AND THE NCEAS CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDLIFE CONSERVATION WORKING GROUP (3). (1) Wildlife Conservation Society, Bozeman, MT 59715, (2) Center for Large Landscape Conservation, Bozeman, MT 59715, (3) National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, CA. A major challenge facing biodiversity conservation is how to develop strategies that enable species and ecosystems to cope with the inevitable impacts of climate change. While a growing body of research has identified a number of adaptation options for addressing climate change, these recommendations are often too general to translate into actual management and conservation actions on the ground. The ability to implement these general recommendations is also hampered by insufficient communication between climate change scientists and conservation practitioners. Our project addresses these issues by bringing together scientists and conservation practitioners to test several general recommendations and apply them to site-based conservation decision-making at a particular location – the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We developed a framework that uses multi-stakeholder workshops to: 1) identify GYE

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species and ecological processes most threatened by climate change; 2) assess the impacts of climate change on a subset of those species and processes; and 3) translate the generic adaptation recommendations into a portfolio of specific adaptation scenarios. We found that this “bottom-up” approach is necessary for integrating climate change models into on the ground conservation decision making, and is an improvement over “top-down” approaches that generate generic recommendations that are difficult to implement. Invited Talk HIDDEN CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN COMPLEX TERRAIN DALY, CHRISTOPHER Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR It is generally recognized that long-term mean climate varies spatially over complex terrain, responding to factors such as elevation, aspect, and coastal proximity. It is also generally assumed that climatic variations in time respond less strongly to these factors, and are fairly consistent on a regional basis. For example, when one location has a warmer than normal winter, other nearby locations are expected to have had a similarly warm winter. The assumption of temporal synchrony of climate is made in every field study for which data from an off-site meteorological station are used to represent conditions at the location of interest. Most methods for downscaling climate change projections from coarse-grid general circulation models do so, as well. This paper refutes the assumption of regional climatic synchrony in complex terrain, using temperature data collected from several stations at various elevations and topographic positions in the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon. Even at the monthly time step, temperature trends and variations at sites just a few km or less apart can be completely different. A main culprit is the presence of cold air drainage and pooling in valley bottoms and other local depressions. In areas free from cold air drainage, such as hill slopes and ridge tops, temperatures respond strongly to changes in flow pattern in the upper atmosphere, but low-lying areas dominated by cold air drainage do not. The result is a complex temperature landscape composed of steep gradients in temporal variation, controlled largely by gradients in elevation and topographic position. If future climate changes are accompanied by changes in the frequency distribution of upper-air circulation patterns, actual temperature responses could diverge widely between very closely-spaced locations. Sensitivity tests suggest that the magnitude of this divergence might equal or exceed that of the projected temperature change itself. There is ample evidence that cold air drainage and atmospheric decoupling occur worldwide, even in the subtropics and in very gentle terrain. Therefore, topographically-induced climate asynchrony is likely to be of global importance in understanding the implications of climate change. What should be done to address this issue? Research and measurement programs designed specifically to understand the complexities of climatic asynchrony in mountainous terrain should be established. Measurement networks that encompass a wide spectrum of elevations and topographic positions within small areas are needed. These networks should be established in a variety of climatic and physiographic settings to allow results to be generalized (or at least to offer the prospect of doing so). Since is it the exceptions to the rule of climate synchrony that are of interest, these networks must be maintained for a least ten years, with no infilling of missing data using spatial estimation methods. High-resolution, high-quality spatial data sets of elevation, hydrography, land use, canopy cover, and related variables will be required to support the development of statistical and dynamic downscaling methods at the landscape scale. Our simple first efforts to statistically model the effects were reasonably successful, at least in our study area. The challenge will be developing general statistical models that are applicable to many mountainous regions. Given that the most explanatory power in our model was offered by topographic position at the 50-m scale (and possibly finer), the challenge to dynamic downscaling will be to simulate cold air drainage and related processes at ultra-fine grid resolutions.

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Talk FIRE HISTORY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES: EVIDENCE OF MIXED-SEVERITY FIRES IN MONTANE FORESTS DANIELS, LORI D. (1), COCHRANE, JED (1,2), GRAY, ROBERT W. (3,4), AND KUBIAN , RICK (2,4). (1) Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC Canada; (2) Parks Canada Agency, Calgary, AB and Radium Hot Springs, BC Canada; (3) RW Gray Consulting Ltd, Chilliwack BC V2R 2N2; (4) School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, BC Canada We have reconstructed fire history at 30 sites and quantified the climate conditions associated with historic fires in the montane forests of the Rocky Mountains in southeastern British Columbia. Our goal is to provide baseline data on fire regimes that can be used to guide ecologically-based restoration of the historic fire regime and fuels mitigation. Of the 30 study sites, 10 sites were subjectively selected to represent old-growth forests and 20 sites were randomly selected to represent southerly, warm-aspect slopes (n = 10) and northerly, cool-aspect slopes (n = 10) in the landscape. Fire records were based on 249 fire scar samples that yielded 567 fire scars between 1509 and 2003. At the old-growth sites, the median fire intervals ranged from 10.3 to 25.6 years, with two to 123 years separating successive fires within sites. At the remaining sites, median fire return intervals ranged from 15.5 to 77.5 years, with 5 to 138 years between fires within sites. Our fire scar records included only 6 fires since 1944. Time since last fire has exceeded the maximum interval between historic fires at 16 of 28 (57%) sites. Between 1700 and 1900, fires burned during significant droughts associated with variation in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fires burned during all combinations of climate conditions, but were more likely to burn when the PDO was positive and the AMO was negative, regardless of variation in ENSO. We conclude the low incidence of fire scars in the past 60 years is partly due to climate and largely due to fire suppression. Talk DROUGHT-INDUCED VEGETATION CHANGE IN SKY ISLAND MOUNTAINS: REMOTELY SENSED PHENOLOGY ALONG GRADIENTS OF WOODY PLANT COVER DAVISON, JENNIFER E. (1,2), BRESHEARS, DAVID D. (1,3,4), AND VAN LEEUWEN, WILLEM J. D. (2,5) (1) School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85716, (2) Office of Arid Lands Studies, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85719, (3) Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85716, (4) Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85716, (5) Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85716 Global warming is projected to result in an increase in severe weather events, including drought. Recent drought coupled with warmer temperatures has been implicated in vegetation mortality in many mountain ecosystems. Drought-triggered tree die-off could be an important barometer of climate impacts, especially in Sky Island mountains where climate-vegetation gradients are steep and water limitations are particularly important. However, differentiating such vegetation changes remotely from background spatiotemporal variation remains challenging. Here we hypothesize and explore an approach for detecting die-off that considers remotely sensed spatial and temporal variation in landscape phenology along Sky Islands in concert with associated trends in amount of woody plant canopy cover. Our approach evaluates vegetation dynamics (e.g., start of season, seasonal productivity) with respect to topography, soils, and vegetation type, as well as percent woody cover, precipitation and temperature trends. Multivariate analysis showed a relationship between woody plant cover and various satellite-detected metrics of vegetation dynamics. Interannual changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation, after accounting for woody cover, related to precipitation and temperature patterns. Our results may aide in improved methods for rapidly and extensively assessing drought impacts along Sky Islands and in other mountain ecosystems.

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Poster DOWNSCALING IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAINS: A WISHLIST DETTINGER, MICHAEL U.S. Geological Survey, Scripps Institution Of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093 In recent decades, warming trends across western North America have fed a number of hydroclimatic changes, including trends towards more precipitation as rain rather than snow, less springtime snowpack, earlier snowfed streamflow, and earlier vegetation greenup. Current climate-change projections indicate that warming will continue and perhaps accelerate during the 21st Century if emissions of greenhouse gases are not mitigated. An important step in determining the effects and risks of such changes is “downscaling” (or informed interpolation) of simulated conditions from global climate models, which currently have coarse spatial resolutions of hundreds of kilometers, down to spatial scales more appropriate for hydrologic applications (about 10 km or less). Some examples of experiences with downscaling requirements and applications for climate-change assessments in California will provide the beginnings of a wishlist of desirable properties of downscaled products for western mountains. Several of these needs have been met with new, constructed-analog downscaling methods, but other desirable properties remain unresolved. Those unresolved needs will “complete” the list. Contributed Lunch Talk A FLAT-LANDER'S PERSPECTIVE ON LEARNING ABOUT COLORADO'S MOUNTAIN CLIMATES DOESKEN, NOLAN Colorado State University, Boulder, CO I left the humid, stormy but friendly flatlands of Central Illinois in 1977 and headed west along the 40th parallel to Colorado to assume the duties of Assistant State Climatologist at Colorado State University. This presentation summarizes some of the personal discoveries and experiences from the past three decades falling in love with the climate of a mountainous state. Poster ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR BIODIVERSITY IN NEW MEXICO: CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS AT REGIONAL AND LOCAL SCALES ENQUIST, CAROLYN A.F. (1), GIRVETZ, EVAN (2), AND GORI, DAVID (1) (1) The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico, Santa Fe, NM (2) The University of Washington, Seattle, WA. There is a paucity of regionally-scaled information linking the physical impacts of climate change with effects on biodiversity and practical guidance for adaptive conservation planning and management. Progress has been made with the development of newly available analysis tools. We used these tools to analyze the impacts of climate change on watershed scale hydrological units (HUC250) in New Mexico. A majority of HUCs have experienced increases in temperature with varying magnitude over the past century, with the remainder experiencing slightly cooler or no changes. Precipitation changes were more spatially heterogeneous, but variance in precipitation change showed a positive relationship with elevation. Analysis of species richness showed that watersheds with higher richness were among those becoming warmest and driest. We found that warmer-drier trends are occurring concurrently with recent forest dieback, alteration of fire regimes, declining snow pack, and population declines in sensitive species in the Jemez Mountains, a priority conservation area located in north-central New Mexico. With future projections suggesting these climate trends will continue, we conclude that these mountains and watershed are particularly vulnerable to ongoing climate change. To assist land managers, we have initiated a case study of the region focused on the identification of optimal adaptation strategies.

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Together, these analyses provide a framework for conducting an assessment of climate change vulnerability at scales appropriate for regional to local conservation planning and management. Poster MYCORRHIZAL SYMBIOSES ABOVE TREELINE IN THE PATAGONIAN ANDES OF ARGENTINA AT CERRO CHALLHUACO, A POTENTIAL GLORIA SITE: PART II FERNANDEZ, NATALIA (1,3); FONTENLA, SONIA (1,3); APPLE, MARTHA (4) AND EZCURRA, CECILIA (1,2)

(1) Laboratorio de Microbiología Aplicada y Biotecnología, Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche, Universidad del Comahue. Quintral 1250, S.C. de Bariloche (CP 8400), Río Negro, Argentina. (2) Departamento de Botánica, Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche, Universidad del Comahue. Quintral 1250, S.C. de Bariloche (CP 8400), Río Negro, Argentina. (3) CONICET – INIBIOMA. (4) Department of Biological Sciences, Montana Tech of the University of Montana, Butte, MT 59701. Mycorrhizas are symbiotic associations that improve plant fitness and influence plant biodiversity in natural ecosystems. Recent studies have suggested that climate change may play a major role in determining the structure of plant communities and mycorrhizal diversity. Describing the ecology and distribution of mycorrhizas in different habitats would give us new insights into the impacts of global change on ecosystems structure. The objective of this study was to analyze the occurrence of arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) in Andean plants of a potential GLORIA site. In March, 2006 roots from plants above treeline were collected in Cerro Catedral (an alpine ski resort) and Cerro Challhuaco (a relatively undisturbed mountain), within Nahuel Huapi National Park, San Carlos de Bariloche, Patagonia, Argentina. All samples were stained by using a modified Phillips and Hayman (1970) method. Typical AM structures (arbuscules, coils, vesicles) were documented as brightfield images. The percentage of root length colonized by AM was estimated according to McGonigle et al. (1990). A total of 42 species were determined. Mycorrhizas were observed in 76.2% of these species (23.8% were non-mycorrhizal). The 93.8% of the species capable of forming mycorrhizas were colonized by AM and 6.2% by ericoid mycorrhizas. The percentage of root length colonized by AM fungi varied widely among the species (~9% to 98%). Despite there being many things remaining to be done (such as comparing the mycorrhizal species between the mountains and analyzing how the disturbance may affect mycorrhizal communities), these results are relevant since they represent the first record of mycorrhizas in high Andean flora and constitute the initial step in the study of the importance of these fungi in the analysis of climate change. What we have investigated up to the moment is extremely valuable because it is necessary to know which species are present at these places and their mycorrhizal status in order to integrate this knowledge into future studies about climate change. Poster GLACIER CHANGES IN THE AMERICAN WEST FOUNTAIN, ANDREW G., HOFFMAN, M., AND BASAGIC, H. Department of Geology, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97201 Based on historic photographs and maps collected over the past 100 years we have developed a history of glacier change for all the major glacier-covered regions in the American West, exclusive of Alaska. Results show a similar trend for all regions, rapid glacier shrinkage in the early half of the 1900s, a slowing or slight advance for about a decade, then a resumption of retreat in the 1980s. The glaciers appear to be responding to seasonal temperature changes rather than fluctuations in precipitation. However, glaciers in different regions are responding to different seasonal temperatures. Glaciers at elevations greater than 3000m (Sierra Nevada, Front Range) are responding to warming spring temperatures, which extend the length of the melting season. Glaciers below 3000m (Olympics, Cascades, Lewis), particularly in the Northwest, respond to warming winter temperatures, which reduce the fraction of precipitation that falls as snow. Some glaciers on the stratovolcanoes of the Northwest have not changed greatly over the past 30 years, and may be due to their large elevation range. We infer

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enhanced snow fall at high elevations in the Northwest that offset snow losses at lower elevations. Recent abrupt increases in summer temperatures portend rapid glacier retreat for the near future. Poster ROOTS IN THE ROCKS: AN APPLICATION OF HERBCHRONOLOGY ABOVE TREELINE AT BARNEY ROCK GLACIER, SIERRA NEVADA, CALIFORNIA, USA FRANKLIN, REBECCA S. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson AZ 85721 Herbchronology, a technique adapted from dendrochronology, is the study of the annual growth rings in roots of certain perennial dicotyledonous plants. The presence of annual growth increments in plants in alpine and above-treeline environments is significant as it highlights the importance of herbchronology for climatic, ecological and geomorphologic applications in alpine and above-treeline ecology. I am presenting the results from a herbchronology analysis of the plants colonizing Barney Rock Glacier. This site, at 3200 meters elevation on the northeast side of the valley wall, is located below Duck Lake Pass in the eastern Sierra Nevada mountain range. Upon analysis of the secondary root xylem of the shrub Leptodactylon pungens (Polemoniaceae), a member of a circumboreal genus, I discovered the presence of annual growth rings that appear to be reflecting a common signal. I am presenting preliminary herb-chronologies for this species based on site aspect around the Barney Lake Rock Glacier. These herb-chronologies are also compared with a Pinus albicaulis chronology from the same site and with PRISM climate data from this region. Comparison can potentially determine whether or not annual growth in the root rings of these plants is controlled by regional climate, microclimate, aspect, snow pack or perhaps other factors. Talk COMBINED WATER BALANCE AND TREE-RING APPROACHES TO UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER GRAY, STEPHEN (1) AND MCCABE, GREGORY (2) (1) Wyoming State Climate Office, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 82071, (2) US Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, Denver CO 80225 Simulations from climate models suggest that average temperatures in the central Rocky Mountains will increase by 1 to 2 °C over the next 50 years, while precipitation will most likely remain within late-Holocene boundaries. In this study, the potential hydrologic effects of such warming, combined with the full range of precipitation variability experienced over the past millennium, is investigated in the Upper Yellowstone River basin in Wyoming and Montana. A water balance model that estimates basin runoff from precipitation and temperature inputs was constructed for current conditions (r = 0.92 vs. measured). The model was then run using tree-ring precipitation estimates for 1177-1895 AD combined with: (1) average observed temperatures 1896-1995; (2) reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures since 1177; and (3) IPCC temperature projections for 2025 and 2050. The resulting runoff scenarios are compared to a baseline generated from tree-ring precipitation and average observed temperatures for 1896-1995. All combinations of temperature and pre-1896 precipitation resulted in mean Upper Yellowstone runoff below the 20th century baseline. Projected temperatures for 2025 and 2050 produced the lowest mean runoff at 89 and 85% of baseline, respectively. Combining average observed temperatures with the paleo-precipitation created numerous multidecadal periods with mean runoff < 85% of baseline. Runoff during these same multidecadal droughts declined an additional 5-15% under the 2025/2050 temperature regimes. As in previous studies from the Southwestern US, these results show that 1-2 °C warming could have major negative effects on water availability in the Upper Yellowstone. Though not considered here, changing snow hydrology and runoff patterns might further exacerbate these declines. These exercises also suggest that 20th century runoff observations paint an overly optimistic picture of regional water

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supplies. Assessing water availability in the face of both anthropogenic climate change and a more realistic portrayal of precipitation variability is a key challenge for resource managers and policy makers alike. Poster RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY PRECIPITATION AND STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTED FROM BLUE OAK TREE RINGS GRIFFIN, R. DANIEL (1), WOODHOUSE, CONNIE A. (1), AND DAVID W. STAHLE (2) (1) Dept. of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, (2) Dept. of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701 The Russian River drains a 3,846 km2 coastal basin north of San Francisco. Users of the heavily regulated surface water in the Russian River Valley include a successful wine production industry, some 600,000 people in Mendocino, Sonoma, and Marin Counties, and a number of federally endangered fish species such as the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). In recent years, drought-associated water shortages and a state-mandated reduction of water imported from the neighboring Eel River Basin have been problematic for the Sonoma County Water Agency, who is required to maintain minimum flow rates for the dry season salmon run. As stakeholders and managers continue to plan for sustainability into the mid-21st Century, an investigation of the pre-instrumental hydroclimatic history could be useful. A number of 300-400 year long blue oak (Quercus douglasii, Hook. & Arn.) tree-ring chronologies were recently developed in California’s North Coast Ranges, proximate to the Russian River Valley. These moisture sensitive chronologies are precisely dated, well replicated through time, and are highly correlated with numerous instrumental records of precipitation and streamflow in the Russian River Valley. As a preliminary assessment, an average of the two longest blue oak chronologies from the north coast region was calibrated with water year precipitation averaged from two of the basin’s long precipitation records (Ukiah and Santa Rosa, 1906-2004, R2 = 0.73), and also with the water year estimates of full natural flow on the Russian River at Healdsburg (1941-2004, R2 = 0.77). Bivariate regression was used to reconstruct both precipitation and streamflow variables for the water years 1582-2004. These 423-year reconstructions exhibit dramatic inter-annual to sub-decadal variability and demonstrate the potential for using blue oak tree-ring data to study the pre-instrumental climate history of the Russian River Basin. The challenge will be to determine how best to assist resource managers in incorporating the information from the hydroclimatic reconstruction into resource planning and management. Poster TITLE? GUISAN, A., RANDIN, C., ENGLER, R., VITTOZ, P. 20th century climate change already affected mountain biotas. A pressing question is to assess how future climate change will further affect life on Earth by the end of the XXIth century. The first part of the talk briefly reviews some floristic fingerprints of climate change in the Swiss Alps. The second part presents the results of climate-envelope model projections of possible impacts of climate change on the distribution and diversity of 287 alpine plant species at local scale. It is then shown for the same 287 species, and using the newly developed MigClim model (a cellular automaton coupled with climate-envelope models), how constraining predictions by the dispersal abilities of species can yield more realistic projections and additionally assess the timing of species extinctions by the end of the century. Poster THE EFFECT OF TOPOGRAPHY AND WEATHER ON THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF SIMULATED FINE-FUEL MOISTURE GWOZDZ, RICHARD (1), DONALD MCKENZIE(1,2)

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(1) College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, (2) USDA Forest Service, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, Seattle, WA 98103 Fuel moisture is a contributing factor to fire risk and fire behavior. Changes in the amount of moisture held by a fuel particle are driven by water and energy flux. These fluxes vary across landscapes due to topography and forest cover effects that modify weather and create micro-climates. Microclimates may therefore create distinct spatial patterns of fine fuel moisture. We developed a model of fuel moisture to examine the spatial structure produced in a watershed with complex topography (Icicle Creek, Washington State, USA). Our model is largely based on the National Fire Danger Rating System (Fosberg and Deeming 1971) but includes a surface energy balance equation that allows solar radiation to modify boundary conditions. We examined the sensitivity of spatial structure to different weather patterns and different values of model parameters. Results from our model indicate that sunny humid days lead to more spatial variation and structure in fuel moisture compared to sunny dry days, on which fuels are drier across the entire landscape. These simulations suggest that the degree of spatial variation across the landscape depends on weather conditions. An increase in the number of warm, dry, sunny days will decrease landscape heterogeneity with regard to fuel moisture, potentially increasing landscape connectivity with regard to fire behavior. However, model results were very sensitive to values of the convective heat transfer coefficient, with lower values producing more distinct spatial structure. Despite this sensitivity, our mechanistic approach to modeling spatial heterogeneity in fire-spread potential dovetails with simulations from Turner and Romme (1994) and others that suggest that extreme weather conditions increase the connectivity of landscapes with respect to fire behavior. Fosberg, M. A., and J. E. Deeming. 1971. Derivation of the 1- and 10-Hour Timelag Fuel Moisture

Calculations for Fire-Danger Rating. U.s. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Fort Collins, CO.

Turner, M. G., and W. H. Romme. 1994. Landscape Dynamics in Crown Fire Ecosystems. Landscape Ecology 9:59-77.

Poster ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS OF THE WESTERN U.S. HALOFSKY, JESSICA E., AND PETERSON, DAVID L. Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, 400 N 34th Street, Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103 Climate either directly or indirectly influences a myriad of ecosystem processes, such as species distribution, the hydrologic cycle, and disturbance regimes. Likely realities of increased temperatures in the western U.S. include increased fire frequency and extent, increased insect outbreaks, increased drought, and increased vulnerability of plant and animal species to population decline and extirpation. Development of effective strategies for adaptation is imperative in order to minimize the negative impacts of climate change on western ecosystems. Adaptation strategies for Western land managers, developed from workshops with national forest managers and other sources, are summarized along with the scientific basis for their development. Invited Talk 21ST CENTURY WATER MANAGEMENT: THE MYTH OF CLIMATE STATIONARITY AND STRATEGIES FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING CLIMATE HAMLET, ALAN F. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA The foundation of U.S. water management systems, long-range planning methods, and procedures for designing water resources infrastructure are broadly predicated on the notion of climate stationarity, and the use of observed climate and/or hydrologic records to guide these activities has been, until very recently, almost universal. Many water resources agreements and operating policies in the western U.S.,

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for example, date from the inception of projects designed and built in the mid 20th century, and were based on relatively short streamflow records available at the time. In some cases these practices worked out reasonably well, in others not so well (depending on how representative the relatively short records were of actual future conditions), but the design process was generally based implicitly on an assumption of stationarity. Even recent and more innovative water resources management concepts such as “Adaptive Management” are implicitly based on ideas of climate stationarity. A growing demand for water and clear evidence of a rapidly evolving (and imperfectly understood) climate system, as well as more complete representations of climate variability from paleoreconstructions has called into question the methods that have been used in the past to manage water resources, and suggest that substantially different approaches will be required to cope with these stresses. In some instances (e.g. in the case of urban storm water management) infrastructure can potentially be made sufficiently robust that precise design standards (which are likely to remain highly uncertain) may be less important. In other cases design standards may still be needed, and deciding an appropriate margin of safety will be challenging and inherently uncertain. Where it is possible to do so, monitoring systems, combined with flexible infrastructure that can be modified as new information becomes available may be more effective than designing “permanent” infrastructure based on uncertain design standards. Many case studies have already shown that multi-objective water management systems in the West are likely to be thrown out of balance by changing hydrologic variability associated with climate change. Fixed rule curves for flood control, for example, which are commonly based on mid-20th century streamflow records and 1970’s era streamflow forecasting technologies, need updating now, and will require additional updates as the climate continues to change in the coming century. The high costs of repeated intervention as the climate system evolves suggests that more dynamic approaches that pair advanced streamflow forecasting systems (that include important climate drivers such as systematic warming) with optimization models to create “dynamic” rule curves may be a superior method for coping with evolving climate risks over the long haul. Similar approaches can also be applied to the management of water demand. Some examples include dynamic pricing or flexible water transfer/marketing schemes that are informed by forecasts. In many (if not all) cases future water resources decisions will need to be based on modeling studies rather than past observations. This change presents many challenges, and particularly so in the management of ecosystems, which are often not sufficiently well understood to create appropriate models for decision making. If models are not available, what approaches can be devised to cope with non-stationary climate risks? Poster CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON VEGETATION WATER AND CARBON CYCLYING AND SPECIES COMPOSITION IN YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK HEYN, KAVITA, A. (1), TAGUE, CHRISTINA L. (1), CHRISTENSEN, LINDSEY (2) (1) Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (2) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499 As part of the Western Mountain Initiative, this research explored potential climate change effects on vegetation productivity and drought stress in the Upper Merced River Basin, Yosemite National Park, Sierra Nevada, California. The RHESSys1 model was employed to analyze vegetation response to simulated climate scenarios. We used historical climate data for water years 1950 to 2000 as a baseline, and examined impacts of incremental 2ºC temperature increases to a maximum of 8ºC, and an elevated CO2 of 600 ppm. The responses of vegetation across the basin and two smaller ‘patches’ were examined using leaf area index, net primary productivity, and evapotranspiration (ET). The results indicated that vegetation at the higher elevations increases productivity and growth with warming temperatures, up until a temperature ‘tipping point’ of 6ºC. After this point, vegetation becomes drought-stressed as the cost of respiration becomes higher than the gross photosynthetic capacity of the plant. Lower elevations are

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more water-limited and therefore immediately demonstrated a decrease in growth and productivity with warming temperatures of 2ºC. The response of basin vegetation to temperature was complicated by the interaction of CO2, which creates a new equilibrium of productivity for vegetation as it becomes more water-efficient. However, temperature ‘tipping points’ were present even with higher CO2. This research suggests potential decreases in vegetation productivity in the basin as plants become more drought-stressed. Furthermore, results suggest the species composition of this conifer-dominated basin may change in response to increasing drought-stress. This was shown by comparing model results with Stephenson’s2 model of the relationship between actual ET and deficit as an indicator of species type for North American vegetation. Corresponding authors: Kavita Heyn kheyn@bren.ucsb.edu; Christina Tague ctague@bren.ucsb.edu Western Mountain Initiative (WMI) http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/wmi/

1. Tague, CL, and Band, LE. 2004. Regional hydro-ecologic simulation system: An object-oriented approach to spatially distributed modeling of carbon, water and nutrient cycling. Earth Interactions 8: 1-42.

2. Stephenson, NL. 1990. Climatic control of vegetation distribution: The role of the water balance. The American Naturalist 135: 649-667.

Poster CLIMATE INFLUENCES ON PLANT GROWTH: SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS IN MOUNTAIN ECOSYSTEMS OF THE WEST HICKE, JEFFREY A. (1) AND MEDDENS, ARJAN J. H. (1) (1) Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844 Climate variability and change affects plant growth through modifications to soil moisture, evaporative demand, and growing season length. Expected future warming will affect plant growth differently in different regions depending on the current climate conditions: regions where growth is limited by low soil moisture and high evaporative demand will likely experience reductions in growth, whereas regions where growth is limited by low temperatures will likely experience increases in growth. In this study we used satellite observations, a carbon cycle model, and climate information to quantify spatial patterns of net primary productivity (NPP). We analyzed NPP in five ecoregions of the western United States across 21 years to determine climate controls by elevation. We considered temperature and precipitation variability at annual and monthly time scales within these ecoregions as drivers of interannual variability in NPP. We then incorporated future projections of the region’s climate to predict the response of NPP within each ecoregion. Poster TREE DEMOGRAPHY ON MT RAINIER: FORECASTING RANGE SHIFTS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING HILLE RIS LAMBERS, JANNEKE (1), KANE AILENE (1), LARSON ANDREW (2) AND LUNDQUIST, JESSICA (3)

(1) Biology department, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98115-1800; (2) College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195-2100 (3) Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, WA 98195-2700

Humans are changing the weather – temperatures are rising and snowfall amounts are decreasing at higher latitudes and on mountains. One of the greatest challenges ecologists face is forecasting how such climate change will affect species ranges. Current approaches to this problem relate species geographic distributions to climate, and apply these relationships to climate scenarios from Global Circulation Models (GCM’s) to predict how ranges will shift with global warming. Termed climate envelope models or niche models, these methods confirm that species’ ranges will shift northward or

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uphill with global warming, but provide little guidance on the short term demographic responses of forests to climate change. To address this issue, we use data collected from Mt. Rainier to ask i) whether the growth of seedlings or adult trees is more sensitive to climate and ii) how tree performance varies with elevation. We found that seedling growth is more sensitive to fluctuations in climate than adult tree growth, implying that range expansions will be faster than range contractions. We also found that tree growth and mortality of several tree species does not decrease at upper or lower altitudinal ranges, potentially due to biotic interactions that influence range limits. In all, these results suggest the possibility of transient dynamics during range shifts, that is, migration rates that differ among species and vary over time. We also discuss future work, in which we will combine tree demographic monitoring, fine-scale climate measurements and dispersal kernel estimation to better forecast the short-term effects of increasing temperature and changing hydrological regimes on the ranges of dominant conifers at Mt. Rainier NP. Invited Talk THE CHALLENGE TO DOWNSCALE PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATES HOREL, JOHN University of Utah, Department of Meteorology, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 Models or observations cannot independently define present-day mountain climates and climate processes effectively. However, state-of-the-art data assimilation methods also struggle to define mountain climates adequately. Characteristics in mountainous regions of the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are used to illustrate the mix of modeling and observational issues that need to be addressed. Plans of the NWS Office of Science and Technology to develop the best possible real-time and retrospective analyses at resolution high enough to resolve mountain climates will be discussed. Lower confidence is generally given to the specifics of the global circulation model precipitation estimates in mountainous areas. The potential impact of future temperature changes in the intermountain West upon winter precipitation is examined using a statistical, physically based, downscaling approach. The strengths and weaknesses of statistical downscaling methods relative to data assimilation techniques are discussed. Poster A PROCESS-BASED MODELING APPROACH TO THE INTERPRETATION OF HIGH-ELEVATION TREE-RING RECORDS IN THE WESTERN US. HUGHES, MALCOLM K. (1), SALZER, MATTHEW, W. (1), AMMANN, CASPAR (2), FRANKLIN, REBECCA (1), FENBIAO NI (1). (1) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO. The world’s greatest concentration of millennial and multi-millennial, well-replicated tree-ring records is found in the high mountains of the western US. It is therefore of interest to attempt to disentangle the effects of temperature and moisture availability on them. In very broad terms, larger tree rings of a species like bristlecone pine are produced by wetter and cooler conditions near the lower elevation limit of the species, and by warmer and wetter conditions when growing near the upper limit. These features are apparent in comparisons with 4-km resolution monthly PRISM data for the period 1895 to 2006. We have also reproduced the properties of tree-ring records from the upper and lower limits of bristlecone pine using a process-based model of tree-ring growth driven by daily meteorological data from two high mountain stations, available from 1956 to 1979 (1977 at the lower elevation). Here we report the results of efforts to extend these simulations for a longer period, and apply them to a newly developed elevation transect of bristlecone pine chronologies. For this we use output for the years 1900-1999 from a realistically forced 20th-Century simulation of the coupled NCAR-CCSM-3 climate model. It is clear that temperature has played a major role in controlling tree-ring width at the highest elevations, at least during

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the 20th century. The implications of these results will be discussed in the context of recent tree-ring growth rates in bristlecone pine at the highest elevations that have been faster than in several millennia. Talk CHANGES IN DATES OF EMERGENCE FROM HIBERNATION BY CHIPMUNKS, GROUND SQUIRRELS, AND MARMOTS AT HIGH ALTITUDE IN THE COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS: AN EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE? INOUYE, DAVID W.(1,2), BARR, BILLY (1) (1) Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, PO Box 519, Crested Butte, CO 81224, (2) University of Maryland, Dept. of Biology, College Park, MD 20742 Chipmunks (Tamius minimus), golden-mantled ground squirrels (Spermophilus lateralis), and yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) are common near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (2,886 m). All three hibernate for 6 – 8 months, during which there is usually significant snow cover. Since 1974 - 1976 Barr has recorded dates of first sighting of these species during daily spring observations. These dates have changed significantly during the study, but not similarly for all species. Marmot emerge about 28 days earlier now than they did in 1976 (typically before snow has melted from their burrows), and dates are now earlier for chipmunks (~10 days) and ground squirrel (~ 9 days) than in 1974. Marmot dates have changed progressively at about the same rate over years, while dates for the other two species trended toward later (3 weeks for ground squirrels, 10 days for chipmunks) for over two decades before rapidly reversing since about 1999. Dates for chipmunk and ground squirrel sightings are significantly correlated with each other, but not with marmot dates. Dates of chipmunk sightings are significantly correlated negatively with average April temperature and positively with the first date of bare ground at a permanent snow measurement station. Dates for ground squirrels show a similar pattern. Sightings of ground squirrels and chipmunks have been as much as 19-20 days earlier or later than each other, with a mean of 0. Marmots average 4-5 days earlier than the other species but with a tremendous range (23 days earlier to 47 days later), and over years the relationship has a significant non-linear trend. Changes by marmots may be related to global warming (April temperature); changes since 1999 in the other species might be related to regional climate change that has altered winter snowpack, or to an evolutionary change in behavior.

Invited Talk IMPLEMENTING ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IN THE FEDERAL CONTEXT: FROM THE EVERGLADES TO YELLOWSTONE IOTT, SUSAN Natural Resources and Environment Team, Government Accounting Office, Boulder, CO This presentation will explore two examples of federal natural resource management—the South Florida ecosystem restoration effort and the management of Yellowstone ecosystem’s bison population. Both of these efforts involve an adaptive management approach to deal with uncertain science and multiple parties with interests in different outcomes in the areas. The presentation will illustrate where the adaptive management approaches adopted in these two examples failed to consider key aspects of the decision process that is critical in a policy context. Finally, the presentation will discuss new adaptive management guidelines published by the Department of the Interior and the potential for these guidelines to address the areas of weakness identified in the examples. Poster DECADAL HYDROLOGIC REGIMES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN BASIN, CALIFORNIA JOHNSTONE, JAMES A. Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley

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Century-long records of inputs to California’s San Joaquin River show significant decadal (12-15 yr) and biennial (2.0-2.3 yr) modes of variability. These modes are shown to be mathematically and physically coupled in a manner which produces weak biennial variability during decadal dry intervals. This coupling has contributed to a recent tendency for prolonged multi-year droughts in California and the central Western U.S, most evident during the late 1980s and early 2000s. Conversely, the biennial mode displays strong activity during decadal wet periods, producing a tendency for extreme annual flows when both modes act in combination. The linkage between these cyclical modes yields a tendency for alternating active-wet and stable-dry regimes of ~5-7 years in the San Joaquin Basin, a pattern most evident since 1950. Similar behavior is also seen in winter precipitation variability throughout the Western U.S., and is attributed to a pair of annular mode oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. Talk DIFFICULTIES IN THE MEASUREMENT AND INTERPRETATION OF HIGH ELEVATION CLIMATE DATA IN UTAH JULANDER, RANDALL P. Natural Resources Conservation Service, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT Climate change has brought an intense focus on the very limited high elevation data sets available for analysis. The NRCS Snow Survey snow course and SNOTEL data are one such data set being used to document climate change. This data collection system was installed, operated and maintained to produce water supply forecasts in the western United States and was not intended as a research quality data set. There are a whole host of limitations as to what these data once represented as opposed to what they may represent today. The systematic bias in these data must be adjusted in order to have a more accurate view of any long term change or climate sensitivity due to factors such as temperature changes. As an example, long term vegetation changes have decreased snow accumulation at many sites in Utah. This decrease in SWE correlates very nicely with observed temperature changes as both are very linear. However when sites adjacent to each other at similar elevations, aspects and latitude have dissimilar behavior - one is decreasing and the other is not, then temperature may not be the dominant cause of change. Indeed in Utah, every long term snow course that has had significant vegetative changes is declining whereas those that have no vegetation change are not. Thus the signature of temperature change may not be as dominant as that of various site physical changes. Temperature data in the SNOTEL system have significant sensor changes as well as poor mounting techniques that have compromised the data set. Temperature data are also impacted by vegetation change in many ways that may be misinterpreted. Snow water equivalent to Precipitation ratios are often misinterpreted and have significant biases not related to temperature. The soil moisture, soil temperature data set has identified bias related to topographic convergence or divergence as well as being impacted by vegetation change. Each of these areas are identified and discussed. Invited Talk ROARING FORK RIVER: A SUB-REGIONAL INITIATIVE KATZENBERGER, JOHN W. AND MASONE, MICHELLE Aspen Global Change Institute, Aspen CO 81611. We discuss the development of water resource management in the Roaring Fork Valley and how community stakeholders, elected officials and non-governmental groups have begun the process of adding climate change to the traditional set of water resource concerns. The Roaring Fork River is an important tributary of the Upper Colorado River Basin with significant in and out of basin demands on the valley’s water resource. Starting in the 1880’s, the economy was dominated by mining and ranching – a period when much of the water resource management, infrastructure and legal instruments were created.

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Post WWII, traditional activities increasingly gave way to recreational tourism, dominated initially by skiing. Population growth combined with housing development and summer and winter recreation accelerated in the 1970’s placing new demands on water resources and riparian habitat. By the end of the 20th century, the economy became equally driven by summer tourism. Present water resource management and infrastructure has evolved to accommodate these development pressures. Recently the Roaring Fork Watershed Collaborative was formed with members from a long list of stakeholder interests to develop a state of the watershed report and a watershed plan responding to the management needs and resource demands anticipated this century. Recognizing the need to add climate change to the traditional set of concerns, the report includes a section on the potential impacts of climate change to the Roaring Fork Watershed with important implications for management including adaptation strategies. Talk INFRASTRUCTURE FOR INVESTIGATING AND MONITORING COLORADO MOUNTAIN SYSTEM SENSITIVITY TO REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE AT THE EDGE OF THE COLORADO PLATEAU LANDRY, CHRISTOPHER C. (1); PAINTER, THOMAS H. (2); BARRETT, ANDREW P. (3) NEFF, JASON C. (4); LAWRENCE, COREY R. (4); CASTLE, SARA (4); STELTZER, HEIDI (5) MARSHALL, HANS-PETER (6) (1) Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies, Silverton, CO 81433; (2) Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112; (3) National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309; (4) Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309; (5) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523; (6) Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 Given the critical environmental services that mountain systems provide, and the sensitivity of mountain systems to climate forcings, a new catchment-scale venue has been developed at a sentinel site in the Southern Rocky Mountains of Southwest Colorado for snow-driven mountain system research and long-term, integrative monitoring. The San Juan Mountains range rises to elevations exceeding 4,200 m at the eastern edge of the 300,000 km2 Colorado Plateau. Rapid regional warming is predicted to increase the scope and severity of desertification and drought throughout the arid plateau while also altering patterns of precipitation in adjacent mountains. Snowmelt from the San Juan Mountains contributes a significant share to the greater Colorado River Basin, a two-part construct of infrastructure and water rights straining to meet the needs of the American Southwest, the nation’s fastest growing region. Recent interdisciplinary investigations based in the Senator Beck Basin Study Area have revealed atmospherically driven, snow-based interactions between the Colorado Plateau and the San Juan Mountains wherein dust from the Colorado Plateau is being deposited in the snowpack and influencing the timing and rate of snowmelt throughout Colorado’s mountains, the biogeochemistry of mountain soils and water, and altering earth surface energy budgets at multiple scales. A new study will assess the latter affect of dust-in-snow, in conjunction with climate warming, on the plant community in Senator Beck Basin. We show how synergies are achieved by combining integrative mountain/snow system research with long-term monitoring infrastructure at a strategically located sentinel site. The Senator Beck Basin Study Area is yielding essential new understanding of alpine processes along with verifying measurements of regional climate change impacts on Colorado’s mountains and their downstream beneficiaries. Poster IMPROVING HYDROCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST USING REGIONAL AND LOCAL SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN RUNOFF LITTELL, JEREMY S. AND HAMLET, ALAN JISAO CSES Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195-5672

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Hydroclimate reconstructions from tree rings in the Pacific Northwest have so far not yielded the reconstruction skill evident in more arid regions. We are developing regional hydroclimate reconstructions tailored to the biophysical variability in mountain watersheds within the region to increase this skill. First, tree-ring based reconstructions of streamflow in the Pacific Northwest have focused on summer drought relationships, yet as much as ninety percent of late summer streamflow derives from snowpack in high-elevation basins. There are two uncoupled modes of drought in the Pacific Northwest: summer drought and the failure of winter snowpack, so chronologies targeting both types of drought are essential to successful reconstruction. Second, significant within-region variability in basin hydrology influences the source location of water in a given season. By estimating the relative contribution and its form (rain or snow runoff) of different basins, the tree species and locations used for reconstruction can be matched to the hydrological processes that contribute most to variability in streamflow. Third, It is also more difficult to find appropriately sensitive trees in the PNW, so techniques for identifying the most sensitive trees based on topographically-driven sensitivity to climate must also be used to increase the quality of chronologies. These techniques rely on geostatistical modeling of runoff and downscaling of regional climate to local conditions using hydrological models. By combining the variability in the nature of drought, the subregional variation in source water location, and the local determinants of tree-ring chronology sensitivity, we will improve the skill of reconstructions developed in the PNW. Talk ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SOURCE WATERS FOR THE UPPER MERCED RIVER, SIERRA NEVADA, CALIFORNIA: RUNOFF DISPROPORTIONALITY, SHIFT IN FLOWPATHS AND HYDROCLIMATIC IMPLICATIONS

LIU, FENGJING (1), CONKLIN, MARTHA H. (1), AND CONRAD, MARK E. (2) (1) School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, CA, (2) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA Source waters of stream flow from three elevation bands were estimated using δ2H for 2006 and 2007 at the upper Merced River (a record wet and dry year, respectively). δ2H values in tributaries at small catchments (< 120 km2), groundwater and rock glacier outflows were well correlated with mean elevations of their drainage areas (R2 = 0.98, n = 12, p < 0.001), suggesting a lapse rate of 1.9‰/100m for δ2H in meteoric water. Contributions of source waters at three elevation bands to stream flow at Briceburg (346 m a.s.l. with a drainage area of 1,873 km2), using a mixing model based on the lapse rate and water and δ2H budgets at three gaging stations, were then compared with snow depth measured at various elevations to determine flowpaths. Results indicate that streamflow during the snowmelt season was dominated by overland flow from elevations above 1,600 m. Stream flow in summer and autumn, during which snow was depleted, was dominated by subsurface flow from elevations below 2,800 m. But the contribution of high-elevation band (> 2,800 m) to low flows was still noticeable. Stream flow in March has significantly (p = 0.002) increased since 1950 in response to the regional trend of earlier onset snowmelt and decrease in snow relative to rain in spring, but low flow in summer and autumn has not significantly changed. The lack of a trend for low flows is due to a shift in major flowpaths from overland flow to subsurface flow from snowmelt to low flow seasons. If the trend of earlier onset snowmelt continues and reduction in snow extends to higher elevations, however, low flows may tend to decrease. Information on hydrologic pathways is critical in evaluating stream flow response to climate warming in snowmelt-dominated catchments. Poster THE USA NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK: TOWARDS AN INTEGRATIVE ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACTS AT THE NATIONAL SCALE LOSLEBEN, MARK, and WELTZIN, JAKE National Phenology Network, 1955 E. Sixth Street, Tucson, AZ 85721

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Phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological phases, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species. Although phenology is a far-reaching component of environmental science, it is poorly understood relative to other ecological patterns and processes. For example, it is unclear how climatic attributes affect the phenology of different organisms, and how those attributes vary in importance on different spatial and temporal scales. We know phenology affects the abundance and diversity of organisms, and their function and interactions in the environment, especially their effects on fluxes in water, energy, and chemical elements at various scales. With sufficient observations and understanding, phenology can be used as a predictor for other processes and variables of importance at local to global scales, and phenology could drive a variety of ecological forecast models with both scientific and practical applications. The USA National Phenology Network (NPN) is a new enterprise – a national network of integrated phenological observations essential to evaluate ongoing environmental changes (www.usanpn.org). The NPN will integrate with other observation networks, including regional phenology networks, remote sensing products, emerging technologies and data management capabilities, and will capitalize on myriad educational opportunities and a new readiness of the public to participate in investigations of nature on a national scale. This talk will illustrate how integration of spatially-extensive phenological data and models with both short and long-term climatic forecasts offer a powerful agent for human adaptation to ongoing and future climate change. Talk IAI CRN 2047 DOCUMENTING, UNDERSTANDING AND PROJECTING CHANGES IN THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE IN THE AMERICA CORDILLERA- AN OVERVIEW

LUCKMAN, BRIAN H (1) AND CRN2047 MEMBERS (1) Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London, Canada, N6A 3K1

The Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI)’s Collaborative Research Networks are international, interdisciplinary research teams that are funded for five years and focus on Global Change issues in the Americas. IAI CRN 2047 was established in 2006 and involves scientists from Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Canada, Chile, Mexico and the United States. Its principal objective is to assess the ongoing effects of climate change on water resources in selected mountain regions of the Americas by documenting and understanding the variability of precipitation and streamflow; their linkages to atmospheric and sea surface temperature controls in adjacent oceans; their variation in time and space; and how they may vary in the future in response to global environmental changes. In conjunction with new IAI SGP-HD programs it also examines the potential impact of these changes on socioeconomic activity. The project focuses on the southern Andes, the Bolivian Altiplano, northern Mexico and the North American Cordillera. Study sites range from rain-fed river basins in Mexico and Chile where land use changes have significantly impacted runoff patterns, to small basins fed by rapidly diminishing glaciers that supply water to the city of La Paz in Bolivia. Major components of the project include the examination and development of contemporary and proxy climate and runoff data to establish links with the dominant causes of climate and streamflow variability over the last ca 300 years (e.g. ENSO, PDO, NAO); evaluation of the available instrumental records as representative of long term climate and streamflow variability; and documentation and modeling of the mass loss from glaciers and their contributions to streamflow in selected areas. There is a strong dendrochronological component to this work following from the activities of IAI CRN03 (1999-2005). This paper will present selected results from the first two years of the project with particular emphasis on the southern Andes, Canada and the Altiplano. Talk MAPPING TEMPERATURE ACROSS COMPLEX TERRAIN LUNDQUIST, JESSICA D. (1), PEPIN, NICK (2), AND MOTE, PHIL (3) (1) Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

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(2) Department of Geography, University of Portsmouth, PO1 3HE, U.K. (3) Washington State Climatologist, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 Mountains are spatially complex and sparsely sampled. Temperatures patterns differ diurnally, synoptically, and seasonally and do not always increase linearly with elevation. However, spatial maps of temperature are imperative to understand spatial patterns of ecology, snowmelt, climate change, and frost. Fortunately, new technology has become available to monitor temperature in remote locations, such as the Onset Hobo and the Maxim i-button. Hundreds of these self-recording sensors have been deployed in Yosemite National Park, California; Niwot Ridge and Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado; the Eastern Pyrenees, France; and Mt. Rainier, Washington over the past several years. The resulting temperature data, combined with empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), can be used to identify the dominant spatial temperature patterns within each study area and how they vary in time. The spatial patterns of temperature are correlated with topography, such as windward-slope, lee-slope, valley, or ridge. Some patterns, such as nocturnal drainage and cold air pools, appear in all the study areas. Here we demonstrate an automated algorithm for using a digital elevation model to map where cold air pools and test it against data from the study sites listed above. These maps are then used to guide weather station deployments and temperature interpolation strategies. Invited Talk DEVELOPING DETAILED HYDRO-CLIMATE SURFACES FOR THE UPPER ST. MARY WATERSHED, MONTANA-ALBERTA MACDONALD, RYAN (1), JAMES BYRNE (1), STEFAN KIENZLE (1), AND DANNY BLAIR (2) 1University of Lethbridge, AB, Canada; 2University of Winnipeg, MN, Canada An understanding of local variability in climatic conditions over complex terrain is imperative to making accurate assessments of impacts from climate change on fresh water ecosystems (Daly, 2006). The derivation of representative spatial data in mountainous environments poses a significant challenge to the modelling community. This presentation describes the current status of a long term ongoing mountain hydro-climate model development program. We are developing a gridded hydro-climate dataset for the upper St. Marys basin using SimGrid (Larson, 2008; Lapp et al., 2005; Sheppard, 1996), a model that applies the Mountain Climate Model (MTCLIM; Hungerford et al., 1989) to simulate hydro-climatic conditions over diverse terrain. The model uses GIS based terrain categories (TC) classified by slope, aspect, elevation, and soil water storage. SimGrid provides daily estimates of solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, snowpack and soil water storage over space. Earlier versions of the model have been applied in the St. Mary (Larson, 2008) and upper Oldman basins (Lapp et al., 2005), giving realistic estimates of hydro-climatic variables. The current study demonstrates improvements to the estimation of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and soil water storage over the St. Mary basin. Snow survey data from the USGS were used to develop a linear relationship between average winter precipitation and elevation. This relationship is used to derive TC winter isohyets over the watershed. Better estimations of minimum and maximum temperatures over the watershed are enabled through the use of lapse rates obtained from NCEP reanalysis data for each day of the historical period (1960-1990). Soil water storage data for the upper drainage were derived with GIS and included in SimGrid to estimate soil water flux over the time period. These changes help improve the estimation of spatial climatic variability over the basin while accounting for topographical influence. Spatial hydro-climatic surfaces from the SimGrid model are applied to assess the hydrologic response to environmental change in the St. Mary watershed. Poster WHITEBARK PINE CITIZEN SCIENTISTS PROJECT: A HANDS-ON APPROACH TO MONITORING CATASTROPHIC WHITEBARK PINE LOSS IN THE GREATER YELLOWSTONE ECOSYSTEM MACFARLANE, W. WALLACE (1), LOGAN, JESSE A. (2), WILLCOX, LOUISA (3)

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(1) Geo/Graphics, Inc., 90 W. Center, Logan, UT 94321, (2) EnviroWise Design, 9C Avalon CT. Box 482, Emigrant, MT, 59027, (3) Natural Resources Defense Council, P.O. Box 70, Livingston, MT 59047 Massive outbreaks of a variety of bark beetles have recently or are presently occurring across the forests of western North America. These outbreaks include the extensive die-off of piñon pine in the south west, devastating outbreaks of spruce beetle in Alaska, and unprecedented mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the U.S. and Canadian Rocky Mountains. All of these events involve native species that are responding in unusual ways to recent global warming that has been particularly severe in the American west. Among the most ecologically disruptive of these is the eruption of sustained outbreak populations of mountain pine beetles (MPB) in high elevation, whitebark pine forests. Whitebark pine is the foundation species for high-elevation forests of the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains, including the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Loss of these forests holds important consequences concerning the ecological amenities they provide, from maintaining healthy watersheds to providing critical wildlife habitat. Although the losses that have already occurred in the GYE are substantial, no one knows their true extent. The lack of effective monitoring of bark beetle mortality in whitebark pine results from inherent limitations to the Forest Service Aerial Detection Survey (ADS) combined with insufficient funding. As a result, important policy decisions such as the delisting of the GYE grizzly bear population are being made based on inadequate and/or misleading information. In response to the lack of effective whitebark mortality monitoring, a group of concerned citizens has organized to provide reliable, on-the-ground accounting of the extent and severity of mortality. In this poster we provide background information on the ecological and societal events that led to formation of this Citizen Scientists initiative, as well as the information structure and techniques we have devised that integrate Google Groups, Google Documents, and Google Earth along with ESRI GIS software for effective implementation. Poster TRENDS IN SNOWPACK EVOLUTION, SPRING PRECIPITATION, AND STREAMFLOW IN THE CROWN OF THE CONTINENT ECOSYSTEM

MARSH, WENDY(1,2), PEDERSON, GREGORY(1,2,3), FAGRE, DANIEL(1), GRAY, STEPHEN(4) (1) U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT 59717, (2) Big Sky Institute, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, (3) School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, and (4) Water Resources Data System, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 82071 The majority of the Northern Rockies’ water resources are in the mountain snowpack. As a natural hydrologic storage reservoir, snowpack contributes between 60 and 80% of the annual runoff in the mountain watersheds of the Western U.S. The Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) is a headwaters region for the Columbia and Missouri River systems, and documentation of declining snowpack, along with earlier spring run-off, has raised significant concerns about future water resources. We examined how increases in regional temperatures, and changes in the evolution of snowpack (e.g. peak SWE to zero SWE) and seasonal precipitation are changing the hydrologic response within the CCE. Records from 37 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 14 stream gages from free-flowing rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations (MET) were analyzed. Results show a decrease in regional snowpack with peak SWE arriving earlier in the year. Snow accumulates on fewer days, and an increasing number of ablation days has resulted in a 1-2 week earlier snow melt-out (ca. 1969). SNOTEL temperature records show dramatic decreases in the number of frost/freeze-days and a rapid 2-3°C rise in the winter and spring. Interestingly, we find no evidence for a significant change in center-of-mass timing (CT) for streams within the CCE. There are, however, dramatic changes in the amount, variability, and duration of the run-off period between 50% and 75% cumulative discharge. Overall increases in spring precipitation observed at valley-MET stations and a shift from a spring snow- to a rain-dominated system explains why earlier snowmelt and decreasing snowpack have not corresponded with earlier CT in stream discharge.

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Changes in spring precipitation also likely resulted in changes between 50% and 75% cumulative discharge. These findings have important implications for ecological processes and water resources. Poster FROM A POINT TO A BASIN: COMPARING CONTINUOUS, POINT SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM AN AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION WITH EXTENSIVE, HIGH RESOLUTION BASIN-WIDE DEPTHS IN SENATOR BECK BASIN, CO MARSHALL, HANS-PETER (1,2), GLEASON, J. ANDREW (1,3), LANDRY, CHRIS (4), MCCREIGHT, JAMES (5) (1) Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; (2) Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; (3) Department of Geology and Geophysics, University Wyoming, Laramie, WY; (4) Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies, Silverton, CO;(5) National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Due to high spatial variability in snow depth and SWE that exists at scales less than 100m, the relationship between point measurements of snow and the basin-wide and regional mean depth and SWE is complex. Models typically use statistical relationships between point measurements of depth/SWE and measured stream flow, however these relationships will change with changes in climate. In addition, in locations with a short history of measurements, stream flow estimates are subject to large uncertainties. Extensive, basin-wide measurements with a highly portable microwave radar have been made throughout Senator Beck Basin over the past 2 years. These measurements are used to estimate snow depth and SWE at several million locations throughout the basin and this detailed spatial distribution is compared with snow depth measurements at two automatic weather stations, one above and one below treeline. Poster CHARACTERIZING HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY IN TRIBUTARY SYSTEMS OF THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN MATTER, MARGARET A. (1), GARCIA, LUIS A. (1) AND FONTANE, DARRELL G. (1) (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO. 80525 Increasing hydrologic variability is cited as a major cause of decreasing accuracy and lead time of water supply forecasts in the Colorado River Basin. Factors contributing to hydrologic variability include climate cycles, climate change and modifications to land use, land cover and water use. The external forcings affect temperature and precipitation conditions related to climate cycles, so this research strives to understand the underpinnings of hydrologic variability associated with climate cycles, and subsequent effects of climate change and modifications to land use, etc. over the 20th Century in tributaries of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Analysis results for three climate cycles over the 20th Century for tributaries of the UCRB show that the hydrologic variability includes: (a) complementary temperature and precipitation patterns associated with relative magnitude of annual basin yield; (b) the complementary patterns are characteristic of the type of climate cycle (e.g., warmer/drier or cooler/wetter); (c) the complementary patterns are acted upon by external forcings, including climate change and modifications to land use, which change details of the patterns; and (d) although details may change, the fundamental complementary temperature and precipitation patterns for a particular type of climate cycle (e.g., cooler/wetter cycle) remain intact. Thus, despite increasing hydrologic variability, there is predictability when variability is assessed within the context of individual climate cycles. The results may establish a foundation for improving forecast models and data to increase forecast accuracy and advance lead time by as much as 6-7 months or more. In addition, the results may also be used in downscaling climate models to regional or basin scales. Poster

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ROLE OF THE NORTHERN ANNULAR MODE IN FOCUSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MCAFEE, STEPHANIE A., RUSSELL, JOELLEN L. Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 Recent studies suggest that much of the recent hydrological change in the western United States is due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the pattern of climate change in the western United States appears to be distinct from the global pattern of warming. The western United States is warming more than the global average, much of that trend is concentrated in the spring, and there appears to be an abrupt shift to warmer conditions in the mid-1980s. This earlier spring onset is reflected in earlier snowmelt and increased wildfire activity later in the summer. We suggest that increases in the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index drive earlier spring onset. The NAM experienced a step change to more positive values in the mid-1980s. High index values are associated with 1) a reduction in storm activity, 2) increased 500 mb heights, 3) warmer temperatures, 4) changing precipitation patterns, and 5) early browning (reduced NDVI) over much of the western United States, particularly during the spring and when the mid-winter NAM index reaches values greater than +1 or +1.5, which has happened significantly more frequently since the mid-1980’s. Conversely, the winter NAM index has not fallen below -1 since the mid-1980’s, despite doing so 15 times between 1899 and 1986. Models and climate theory suggest that surface warming and stratospheric cooling related to ozone destruction will lead to higher NAM index values. This implies that while the pattern of climate change seen in the West is not unique – in fact it seems typical of high NAM index conditions – the increased frequency of those events may be linked to human alteration of the climate system and their impacts exacerbated by the general warming trend. Invited Talk ADAPTATION CHALLENGES IN THE WEST: CLIMATE, FIRE, AND INSECTS MCKENZIE, DON; PETERSON, DAVE; AND LITTELL, JEREMY University of Washington, Seattle, WA Western mountain ecosystems face a number of changes, both gradual and abrupt, from global warming. Because of the inertia in mountain forests from mature trees’ being resilient to gradually increasing temperatures, most sudden or rapid changes will likely be precipitated by changes in disturbance regimes. The principal disturbance regimes in western mountains are wildfire and insect outbreaks. We expect these disturbances to interact with each other and other changes such as loss of snowpack, increasing air pollution, and human-caused changes such as logging and forest fragmentation, to exacerbate and accelerate the direct effects of climate. We present new ideas from an ongoing thought experiment, regarding “stress complexes”, or interacting processes that force ecosystem change, to help identify specific vulnerabilities of western mountain ecosystems. Vulnerabilities to rapid irreversible changes will be perhaps the biggest challenge for adaptation. Invited Talk THE NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (NARCCAP): RESULTS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST MEARNS, LINDA O. Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO NARCCAP is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models(RCMs)and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by

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nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP reanalyses. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs that participated in the European PRUDENCE program (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and NCAR WRF. Candidate AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3, NCAR CCSM, the Canadian CGCM3 and the GFDL model. The resulting climate model runs will form the basis for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts assessments over North America. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the simulations of the regional models. There also will be opportunities for double nesting over key regions through which additional modelers in the regional modeling community will be able to participate in NARCCAP. Additional key science issues are being investigated such as the importance of compatible physics in the nested and nesting models. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple runs are being developed by geophysical statisticians. In this talk, results from Phase I of the project, the RCM simulations using boundary conditions from NCEP reanalyses, will be presented, focusing on the mountainous western North America. Climate change results from the two time slice experiments will also be presented. Poster GEOGRAPHIC, PERIGLACIAL, AND CLIMATIC RELATIONSHIPS OF AMERICAN PIKA (OCHOTONA PRINCEPS) IN THE EASTERN SIERRA NEVADA AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN MILLAR, CONNIE, BOB WESTFALL, AND DIANE DELANY USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Sierra Nevada Research Center, Albany, CA American pikas (Ochotona princeps, Order Lagomorpha) are small herbivores restricted to patchily distributed, high-elevation, talus slopes of western North America. They are vulnerable to brief exposures of direct heat and warm ambient temperatures. This condition, coupled with the geometry of decreasing area on mountain peaks, has led to the species being considered at risk from global warming, and extirpation of low-elevation sites is considered inevitable. We surveyed pika non-systematically, documenting 173 pika locations during summer and fall of 2007. These included 140 sites in the E. Sierra Nevada between W. Fork Carson River and Rock Creek Cyn, and 33 sites in six W. Great Basin ranges, including the White Mtns, Glass Mtn Range, Bodie Mtns, Monitor Pass Range, Sweetwater Mtns, and Wassuk Range. We used a rapid assessment method based on fresh pellets; this method indicates modern usage (ca ≤5 yrs) but not necessarily current occupation. The sites were distributed on all slope aspects with a slight preference to NE and E, and ranged from 1827m to 3768m. Such low elevations are not commonly reported at this latitude. Over 80% of the sites occurred in active or relict rock-ice features (RIFs), most commonly rock glaciers (cirque and valley wall) and boulder stream landforms. Periglacial RIFs create ideal habitat for pika, including distribution of rock type and size, cold-air ventilation in summer and warm-air circulation in winter (Balsch and chimney circulation), persistent wet meadows at their base, patches of vegetation scattered on the rock carapace, and conditions for predator avoidance and den habitat. The climatic envelope of our pika sites (PRISM model) overall averaged 936 mm precipitation (range 279-1610 mm); minimum temperatures averaged -3.7°C (range -6.8-0.6°C). Relative to normal distribution, minimum site temperatures were skewed toward cold values, corroborating the importance of temperature and suggesting a disequilibrium loss of populations in the warm range. Elevation and minimum temperature of pika sites were not significantly correlated, suggesting that RIF environments create adequate habitat not strongly related to elevation, a finding about RIFs we have described previously. Given documentation by pika researchers of extirpations of low-elevation historic pika populations, in our continuing work we will emphasize survey of low RIF sites for pika in hopes of elucidating vulnerabilities in those environments.

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Talk HOW WELL DO FIRST FLOWERING DATES MEASURE PLANT RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE? MILLER-RUSHING, ABRAHAM J. (1,2), INOUYE, DAVID W. (1,2), AND PRIMACK, RICHARD B. (3) (1) Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, (2) Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, (3) Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215 First flowering dates are occurring earlier than they did in the past in many locations around the world. It is often assumed, implicitly or explicitly, that the changes in first flowering dates describe the phenological behavior of entire populations. However, first flowering dates represent one extreme of the flowering distribution and may be susceptible to undesirable confounding effects. We used long-term observations of flowering in Colorado and Massachusetts to test whether changes in population size and sampling frequency affect observations of first flowering dates. We found that the effect of population size on first flowering dates depended on location. Changes in population size strongly affected first flowering dates in Massachusetts but did not affect them in Colorado. The lack of effect in Colorado may reflect the rapid onset of spring after snowmelt and fixed developmental schedules of the plants at this sub-alpine site. We also found that changes in sampling frequency can impact on observed changes in first flowering dates and other aspects of the flowering distribution. Similar to the effect of declines in population size, lower sampling frequency caused later observations of first flowering. However, lower sampling frequency, if maintained consistently throughout a study, did not significantly affect estimates of changes in flowering dates over time or in response to climate. Researchers must consider changes in population size and sampling frequency when interpreting changes in first flowering dates. In some cases, past results may need to be reinterpreted. When possible, researchers should observe the entire flowering distribution or consider tracking peak or mean flowering dates to avoid the confounding effects of population size and sampling frequency. Poster ASSESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF THE NRCS SNOTEL SYSTEM IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN NOLIN, ANNE W. AND BROWN, AIMEE Department Of Geosciences, Wilkinson 104, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331 The Columbia River is the third largest in the United States and its basin encompasses an area of almost 907,700 km2. The Columbia River Treaty negotiation process will begin in 2014 and a key area of concern is the impact of climate change on seasonal snowpacks. Approximately 50% of the annual precipitation in the mountains of the region falls as snow during the winter months. There are 290 SNOTEL sites in the basin, ranging in elevation from 914 m to 2919 m. The goal of this research is to determine how representative SNOTEL site locations are of the snowpack in the Columbia River basin. We use a digital elevation model and gridded climate data from PRISM to assess basin hypsometry, snow-covered area, and the area of “at-risk” snow in the basin. For the Willamette sub-basin of the Columbia, the average elevation SNOTEL site elevation is 1132 m (maximum = 1500 m, minimum = 609 m). In the Willamette, 13% of all the lands in the basin are at elevations above 1200 m. However, there are no SNOTEL sites in the upper 1707 meters of elevation, resulting in the sites failing to represent about 50% of the snow covered area in the basin. These underrepresented elevation bands are where the climatologically stable snowpacks are located, projected to be the main snow-derived water source in future climate scenarios. We expand upon this research, presenting results for the full Columbia River basin and looking specifically at key sub-basins within the Columbia. Poster GLACIER MELT MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO SUMMERTIME UPPER HOOD RIVER STREAMFLOW

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NOLIN, ANNE W. (1), PHILLIPPE, JEFF (1) (1) Department Of Geosciences, Wilkinson 104, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331 Mount Hood is the tallest mountain in Oregon and its 6 of its 11 glaciers feed into the five irrigation districts in Hood River Valley. The objectives of this research are to: 1. determine the interseasonal and interannual proportions of glacier meltwater to streamflow in the

Upper Middle Fork Hood River; 2. estimate changes in glacier meltwater production on timescales of 10- to 50-years and impacts on

low flows in the Upper Middle Fork Hood River. Our approach uses a combination of direct streamflow measurements and a snowmelt-runoff model. During summer 2007, we installed water height recorders at the termini of Eliot and Coe glaciers and at locations several kilometers further downstream. These were calibrated using in situ discharge measurements. Isotope tracers were also used to compute the relative contributions of water from glacier melt and groundwater. Our measurements indicate that during the lowest flow period of the summer, roughly 74% of the water in the Upper Middle Fork Hood River is derived from glacier melt. These data also served to calibrate a glacier melt-runoff model. To assess the effects of future glacier recession on late summer streamflow, we ran the model for progressively smaller glacier areas, holding temperature at modern levels. Our projections indicate that in about fifty years, the glacier melt contributions to streamflow in the Upper Middle Fork Hood River will have declined by about 50%. We also examined the sensitivity glacier-derived streamflow of the glaciers to changes in temperature using a fixed glacier size but changing temperature. Lastly, we examine the relative contributions of the debris-covered and debris-free portions of the glaciers to overall streamflow. Poster A “GLORIA” LONG-TERM MONITORING SITE FOR DETECTION OF CLIMATE-INDUCED CHANGES IN ALPINE PLANT COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, COLORADO, USA NYDICK, KOREN (1) AND CRAWFORD, JULIE (2) (1) Mountain Studies Institute, Silverton, CO 81433, (2) University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy

In the summer of 2006 the Mountain Studies Institute (MSI) initiated a long-term monitoring program to detect climate-induced changes in alpine plant communities in the San Juan Mountains. MSI’s project is one “target area” in the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA). This international program now has 35 active target areas, with 6 in the USA. The San Juan site currently is the most southerly target area along a transect in the Rocky Mountains. Ninety-nine plant species were identified at the San Juan target region, with 22, 58, 56 and 43 species found in plots on each of four mountain summits from highest to lowest elevation. The average number of species found across all target regions globally is 92 and the median is 79. The San Juan target region also has an educational component. Undergraduate students from Fort Lewis College and Truman State University participated in the field work. In addition, the baseline data are being analyzed as a PhD dissertation exploring plant-environment relationships and the effect of taxonomic resolution. The plots will be re-surveyed in 2011 and every five years thereafter with soil temperature dataloggers being downloaded more frequently.

Talk THE SAN JUAN CLIMATE INITIATIVE: A SCIENTIST-STAKEHOLDER PARTNERSHIP FOR UNDERSTANDING AND ADAPTING TO PLACE-BASED CLIMATE CHANGE NYDICK, KOREN Mountain Studies Institute, Silverton, CO 81433

While climate change science has progressed rapidly, the relevance and applicability of this science to local-scale understanding and decision-making is lacking for many geographic areas. Place-based

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studies of climate change are clustered around well-established research centers, leaving other areas void of information. When information does exist, it is not often at the wrong scale or is otherwise inaccessible to the stakeholders who need it. Nor are there tools readily available that would help managers to incorporate climate science into their local planning. The San Juan Mountain/Four Corners region is one such geographic area that currently is under-served by climate science and adaptation planning. The San Juan Climate Initiative seeks to increase scientific understanding of climate change and its effects in this region and to synthesize this information into usable formats and tools for land managers and other stakeholders. The San Juan Collaboratory was formed to further develop the San Juan Climate Initiative and also address other pressing environmentally-based issues in this region. This partnership of the Mountain Studies Institute, University of Colorado at Boulder, Fort Lewis College, San Juan Public Lands Center (USFS/BLM) and others is well positioned to take on this initiative and to develop a model for other under-served regions. I will describe several efforts underway, others that are planned, and opportunities for additional collaboration.

Invited Talk ADAPTATION CONSIDERATIONS FOR NATIONAL FOREST MANAGEMENT IN LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE O’HALLORAN, KATHY A. (1) AND DAVID L. PETERSON (2) (1) US Forest Service, Olympic National Forest, 1835 Black Lake Blvd SW, Olympia, WA 98512, (2) US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 400 N 34th St, Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103 Management of our National Forest lands is becoming ever more critical and more challenging in the face of climate change. The Olympic National Forest managers are just beginning to understand the potential impacts of a changing climate. Climate research has not been readily available to managers and published literature is often hard to interpret for a specific locale. With the formation of a research management partnership, Olympic managers and scientists have developed a conceptual basis for framing management considerations in light of climate change. Several of the key concepts for adaptation are: managing for the future and recognizing that historical information may not be a good predictor; managing for diversity at multiple scales; and cross boundary collaboration. Closer interaction with the science community is needed to jump start the technological transfer of existing information as well as assist managers as we deal with increasing levels of uncertainty. Talk MULTI-SCALE RECONSTRUCTIONS OF SNOWPACK VARIABILITY FOR KEY WATERSHEDS IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA: TREE-RINGS PROVIDE INSIGHTS ON THE PAST 500 TO 1000 YEARS PEDERSON, GREGORY(1,2,3), GRAY, STEPHEN(4), GRAUMLICH, LISA(2), FAGRE, DANIEL(1), AND SHINKER, J.J.(5) (1) U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT 59717, (2) School of Natural Resources, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, (3) Big Sky Institute, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, (4) Water Resources Data System, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 82071, (5) Department of Geography, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 82071 One of the most robust lines of evidence for climate change impacts in the Western US is the decline in snowpack during the latter half of the 20th century. It is critical to ascertain whether this trend is anomalous relative to long-term patterns of snowpack dynamics. We are using tree-ring data networks coupled with NRCS snowcourse based reconstructions of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) to reconstruct snowpack variability at multiple watershed scales. Snowcourse records provide the raw data needed to generate calibration datasets of April 1 SWE. Records span 1930 to present, and were utilized to generate historic SWE anomalies from the scale of individual USGS level 6 watershed to the entire Upper Colorado River Basin. Across multiple watershed scales historic SWE records were used in combination with more then 600 existing and recently collected tree-ring chronologies to produce 500 to 1000 year

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records of April 1 SWE variability. Initial work targets key high-mountain headwaters for the Upper Colorado, Upper Yellowstone/Missouri, and Columbia/Saskatchewan Rivers. For the Colorado Plateau region, 9 out of 17 level 6 watersheds achieve quality reconstructions (R2> 0.45) of April 1 SWE, and a reconstruction extending back to 1181 AD was produced for the entire Upper Colorado River Basin. Preliminary analyses show marked interannual to multidecadal variability in total April 1 SWE. Comparisons with existing proxy records of Pacific Basin climate show coupled ENSO and PDO influences on the total amount of mountain snowpack in these regions. The strength and sign of these relationships is shown to vary over time and on a watershed-by-watershed basis. These and other results exemplify why long-term records are essential baseline information for evaluating recent and future changes in mountain snowpack. The overarching goal of this project is to lay the foundation for snowpack reconstructions that encompass high mountain areas in all of western North America. Poster TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICAN MOUNTAINS: A GLOBAL CONTEXT PEPIN, NICK C. (1), LUNDQUIST, JESSICA (2) (1) Department Of Geography, Buckingham Building, Lion Terrace, University of Portsmouth, P01 3HE, U.K.; (2) Department Of Civil And Environmental Engineering, University Of Washington, Wilcox 165, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. We examine surface temperature trends (1948-2002) from over 1000 homogeneity adjusted stations from the GHCNv2 and CRUv2 surface datasets with a focus on high elevation sites (over 500 metres above sea-level). 552 of these sites are in North America with elevations ranging up to 3000 m, the vast majority in the west of the United States. Mean warming in North American mountains (+0.12°C/decade) exceeds the global average, and over 80% of sites have positive slopes. However, despite model predictions of enhanced warming at higher elevations, there is no simple increase in trend magnitude with elevation. Other factors are clearly more influential, most importantly mean annual temperature. There is a marked enhancement of warming rates at sites where mean annual temperatures are at present near 0°C and as temperatures rise well above this critical threshold warming rates reduce. This is clear evidence that cryospheric changes (earlier snowmelt in spring, reduced snowpack, melting glaciers) are magnifying temperature response in this critical zone. There are also strong relationships between trend magnitude and topography, incised mountain valley sites showing much more rapid change on average than mountain peaks, which are show less variable warming rates. This is because local factors such as urbanisation and land-use change enhance spatial heteorogeneity at valley sites, while mountain peaks and exposed slopes are better indicators of regional scale forcing. We should expand our database of mountain summit observing locations for this reason. Poster RESPONSES OF BURYING BEETLE LIFE-HISTORY TO CHANGE IN ELEVATION: A RECIPROCAL TRANSPLANT EXPERIMENT. PONTIUS, KIRA E. (1,2), SMITH, ROSEMARY J. (1,2) (1) Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID 83209, (2) Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Gothic, CO 81224 Local climate or its correlate, elevation, can influence life-history strategies. I examined how the burying beetle, Nicrophorus investigator, alters reproductive decisions based on breeding elevation in a montane environment (Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory). N. investigator is a carrion beetle that reproduces on small dead rodents. Through a reciprocal transplant study, I bred 138 beetle families at two elevations (~2800-3200m), replicated at 3 sites. Larvae in each family were weighed and counted, left overwinter, and collected upon emergence the subsequent year. I determined that parents reduce the number of larvae produced when they are moved to a higher elevation and provide greater parental care. Beetles also have greater overwinter survival at higher elevations. Beetles emerge earlier at lower elevations and emergence date is correlated with snow melt date and snow depth each year. These results indicate that

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the breeding environment exerts an affect on burying beetle behavior and life-history indicating a plastic response to change in environment. This has implications for predicting effects of climate change on populations.

Poster MIDGE-BASED AIR TEMPERATURE INFERENCE MODEL PROVIDES EVIDENCE FOR PEAK HOLOCENE WARMTH AT ~5200 YR BP IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, USA PORINCHU, DAVID F. (1), REINEMANN, SCOTT (1), MARK, BRYAN (1), AND BOX, JASON (1) Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 Changes to hydrology arguably comprise the most critical potential impact of climate change to the Intermountain West of the United States. Great Basin National Park (GBNP) exemplifies the heightened concern over present and future water availability in this region given a proposed pipeline project to supply growing population centers in the south. Explicitly reconstructing the regional and sub-regional responses of the thermal and hydrologic regimes in the Great Basin to climate forcing during the Holocene will provide valuable insight to the nature of future local responses to climate change. Our recent research indicates that subfossil midge remains recovered from sub-alpine lakes in GBNP can provide robust air temperature reconstructions spanning the 20th and 21st centuries. The chironomid-based air and water temperature reconstructions were developed using inference models based on a 90 lake data set from the Great Basin of United States with the air temperature inference model calibrated with air temperature obtained from the PRISM dataset (Oregon State University). A Holocene core extracted from Stella Lake, a small sub-alpine lake located in GBNP, was analyzed for magnetic susceptibility, LOI and subfossil midges. Application of the chironomid-based inference model, described above, to the Stella Lake midge stratigraphy indicates that notable changes in LOI and MJAT characterize the record. Of particular interest is the midge-inferred increase in MJAT which occurred at ~ 5200 cal yr BP. Continued high resolution analysis of subfossil midge remains recovered from Stella Lake will enable reconstruction of Great Basin paleotemperatures over a longer time-scale, put contemporaneous changes into context and increase our understanding of the linkage between these localized changes and regional climate dynamics. Understanding the magnitude and range of past climate variability is vital for predicting future water availability and secondary ecological responses to climate change for this region. Invited Talk CLIMATE SERVICES IN SUPPORT OF ADAPTATION PULWARTY, ROGER S. National Integrated Drought Information System, NOAA Climate Program, Boulder Colorado USA 80302 Climate variability and change impacts national and local goals, within and across sectors, including, water, energy, health, agriculture, ecosystem management, and the coastal zone. In recognition of this long-standing observation, there is enabling legislation in the U.S. Congress to establish a National Climate Service, led by NOAA, as part of the reauthorized U.S. Global Change Research/Climate Change Science Program. Climate services have been defined as the timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge to decision makers. In this paper we map the evolution of the idea of climate services and describe the network and infrastructure existing and needed to develop and coordinate such services. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information necessary to inform adaptation and mitigation across sectors, and under changing baselines and extremes, represent critical emergent needs. While existing "service-type" activities can be identified in many settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), we show that the problem is actually one of crafting effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"), coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and most importantly highlighting common interests among the different groups.

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Onging implementation of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS Act 2006; Public Law 109-430) is showing that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessment and usable information requires knowledge provision systems for early warning across temporal and spatial scales, and anticipatory coordination between implementing agents and information providers. Integrated resources management (e.g. water, coastal zone, high elevation ecosystems) provides an important framework to achieve adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. An effective climate service would facilitate integrated appraisals of adaptation and mitigation options across multiple sectors and across an appropriate (user- dependent) ensemble of near and longer-term future climates. We assess how these integrated service perspectives (such as NIDIS) have been developed, communicated and have value in improving decision-making processes for adaptation in a changing climate.

Talk PAST AND FUTURE CHANGES IN ALPINE TUNDRA IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS RANDIN, CHRISTOPHE F. (1,2), HUMPHRIES, HOPE, C. (1), LISTON, GLEN E. (3), HIEMSTRA, CHRISTOPHER A. (3), YOCCOZ, NIGEL G. (4), BOWMAN, WILLIAM D., SEASTEDT, TIMOTHY R., SUDING, KATHARINE N. (5) AND WILLIAMS, MARK W. (1) (1) INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0450,USA, (2) DEE, University of Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland, (3) CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375, USA, (4) Institute of Biology, University of Tromsø, 9037 Tromsø, Norway, (5) Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Irvine Irvine, CA 92697-2525, USA

Improving our understanding of climate, snowpack and alpine plant distribution interactions at fine spatial resolutions (meters or 10s of meters) is an enduring goal of alpine plant ecology. Understanding and quantifying these interactions is required to anticipate and predict future species patterns given anticipated temperature and precipitation changes.

The 350x500m study area is located at 3500 m elevation on Niwot Ridge, in the alpine tundra of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. To parameterize species distribution model (SDM), we assessed the spatio-temporal changes of 80 plant species using 81 permanent plots covering 17 years (records in 1989,1990,1995,1997 and 2006). Partial triadic analysis showed a shift of species structure in vegetation plots from 1989-2006. Correspondence analysis of 1989 and 2006 inventories revealed an important species composition shift in plots located at the interface between wet meadow and snowbed communities. In addition, these two communities changed the most during this time period. Analysis of climate data suggest that these community changes are associated with warmer temperatures during the melting period in late spring and summer.

To obtain a predictive capacity for the SDM given anticipated modifications of temperature and moisture, a spatially explicit model of snow accumulation and ablation (SnowModel) was driven by 17 years of daily meteorogical data (1989-2006) to yield maps of snow depth and soil moisture. Snow depth and soil moisture explain up to 80% of plant spatial distributions within the study area. Thus, robust projections of SDM are possible using simulated proxy variables and future projections of temperature and precipitation patterns over the 21st century.

Talk ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE 20TH CENTURY RANGWALA, IMTIAZ Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, NJ 08901.

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I will present an analysis of trends in observed climate variables including surface air temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth for the San Juan Mountain (SJM) region in the southwest Colorado during the 20th century (1906-2005). These observations were obtained for the National Weather Service (NWS), SNOTEL and Snow Course stations. My analysis suggests a 2 oC warming between 1906 and 2005. A 1.5 oC warming between 1920-2005 is also concurrent with the temperature trends obtained for the western Colorado from an independent analysis. An abrupt warming in the SJM region (0.62 oC/decade) between 1990 and 2005, confirmed at both the NWS and SNOTEL station, was found to be among the highest in the contiguous United States. The seasonal trends in warming during the 1985-2005 period vary between the NWS and SNOTEL stations – higher warming in winter at the NWS sites, and in spring and summer at the SNOTEL sites. I expect these differences to be associated with the elevation of these sites, which becomes important for the timing of snowmelt processes. SNOTEL stations are 2500 ft higher than NWS stations on average. Annual snowfall at the NWS sites has reduced by about 25% between 1995-2005, which is consistent with a 25% reduction in snow depth at Snow Course sites, and a 40% reduction in SWE at both SNOTEL and Snow Course sites for the same time period. On a monthly basis, April demonstrates the largest decrease in snow depth during the 1995-2005 period, even though, the snowfall during April has not changed significantly over that period. Trends in precipitation in the SJM region are weakly correlated to the Pacific climate indices (ENSO, PDO) until 1970s, however, these relationships completely breakdown between 1985 and 2005.

Talk CLIMATIC AND TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ON THE MASS BALANCE OF A RECEDING CIRQUE GLACIER, GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, MONTANA REARDON, BLASE A. (1), HARPER, JOEL T. (1), FAGRE, DANIEL B. (2), AND DESKINS, A.M. (1) GEOSCIENCES Geosciences Department, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, (2) U.S.G.S. Northern Rockies Science Center, West Glacier, MT 59936 In the U.S., the dramatic retreat of glaciers in Glacier National Park (GNP) has become an icon for a worldwide trend that is both an effect of, and evidence for, global climate change. While the loss of glacier area in GNP is higher than in other mountain areas in the contiguous U.S., there have been no quantitative studies of changes in glacier mass or volume in GNP, and nearly all of the glaciers there exist at sizes and sites in which their climate sensitivity may be complicated by local topographic processes. It is thus unclear how directly the dramatic retreat reflects regional climate trends. We present the results to date of an ongoing study of the mass balance of Sperry Glacier, one of the largest remaining glaciers in GNP, that aims to partition the climatic and topographic influences controlling its retreat. We used a glaciological approach for direct measurements of mass balance in 2005 and 2006, which gave annual net balances -1.22 and -0.87 m w.e. respectively. To calculate multi-decadal mass balances, we used a geodetic method that compared digitized 1950 and 1960 maps of the glacier surface with a DEM of the 2007 glacier surface created from a differential GPS survey. For the older and longer periods, mean annual net balances were substantially less negative (-0.27m w.e. a-1 for 1950-60; -0.37 m w.e. a-1 for 1950-2007). Using proxies for accumulation and ablation, we determined that the 2005 and 2006 balance years were among the driest and warmest, respectively, of recent decades. The cumulative negative balance since 1950 suggests that while topographic influences measurably affect Sperry Glacier’s mass balance, it responds primarily to climate, and that despite year-to-year temperature and precipitation variations, the regional climate is growing ever more unfavorable for small glaciers.

Invited Talk WESTERN MOUNTAIN CLIMATE FOR 2007-2008 IN PERSPECTIVE REDMOND, KELLY T. NOAA Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, 89512-1095 The winter of 2006-2007 left a significant precipitation deficit, especially in the western half of the West. The Sierra Nevada was especially affected, with snowpack among the lowest on record. After a

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somewhat promising start, the long-standing drought in the Colorado River system resumed as Lake Powell dropped further. Summer brought a mixed monsoon, tending to favor Arizona over New Mexico. July was exceptionally warm in the northern Rockies. La Nina formed and intensified steadily into autumn and winter, feeding expectations of yet another dry winter Southwest as those in the Northwest braced for more Moss Helper than usual. After the driest rainy season on record, southern California experienced another round of devastating fires during a very strong Santa Ana event, reminiscent of those just 4 years earlier. Flames consumed over 500,000 acres and 2000 homes, with more than $2 billion in losses. The ensuing winter (2007-2008) proved to be somewhat puzzling in its precipitation patterns. Wet pockets could be found in the Southwest, and dry pockets in the Northwest. Much of the intermontane West ended up wet, with the largest percentage excess seen in the San Juan Mountains, a successful attempt by the atmosphere to impress the attendees of MTNCLIM 2008. For the first time in over a decade or more, very few parts of the West reported significant precipitation deficits for the winter months. Also, many parts of the interior West reported an unusually cool or even cold winter, and the West reported its first cool winter in many years. In February the jet stream shifted north and the southwest dried out, and the circulation pattern began to strongly resemble the canonical La Nina pattern expected in the West. With low antecedent soil moisture from the previous winter and the extremely dry spring on the heels of a promisingly wet mid-winter, streamflow prospects for the Sierra Nevada dropped considerably, to well-below average values. Cool conditions in the central Rockies and upper Colorado River basin helped retain the snow pack, and near MTNCLIM time the snowmelt inflow to Lake Powell was expected to be near 120 percent of average, the highest in over a decade. However, combined Mead-Powell contents remained less than half of capacity. Talk IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GREATER SAGE-GROUSE (Centrocercus urophasianus) POPULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS: UNDERSTANDING THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE, ALTERED FIRE REGIMES AND EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE SCHRAG, ANNE M. (1), RITTER, JOY (2), AND FORREST, STEVE C. (1) (1) World Wildlife Fund-Northern Great Plains Program, 202 S. Black, Ste.3, Bozeman, MT 59715 (2) American Wildlands, 321 E. Main, Ste. 418, Bozeman, MT 59715 Habitat degradation, emerging infectious disease, altered fire regimes and global climate change are leading to the decline of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations throughout the West. While mounting evidence suggests that habitat fragmentation (including energy development) may lead to the eventual decimation of the sage-grouse population, it is unclear what role climate change may have in the equation. This study addresses this the potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on sage-grouse distribution in the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies (including Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota and South Dakota) through the following objectives: 1) how will climate change impact the distribution of Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate v. wyomingensis) and silver sagebrush (Artemisia cana); 2) how will climate change impact fire regimes and what will be the resultant impacts on the distribution of shrubland versus grassland distribution; and 3) how will climate change impact the occurrence of West Nile virus? We used the following modeling techniques to accomplish our objectives: 1) MAXENT, a maximum entropy model, was used to forecast spatial changes in distribution of the two sagebrush species; 2) VDDT/TELSA, a landscape simulation model, was used to forecast impacts of climate change on the distribution of shrubland and grassland; and 3) a .NET ArcGIS-based degree-day model was used to forecast occurrence of West Nile virus (WNv) in the study area. Preliminary results suggest a potential overall contraction of range into areas that are currently developed for energy or are highly likely to be developed in the future. In addition, we found that shifts are likely to occur in heterogeneous ways that are contrary to the popular belief that species will move northward and upslope with climate change. We expect to find similarly heterogeneous shifts in ecotypes and WNv occurrence. We expect that shifts in ecotypes, such as shrublands and grasslands, as well as occurrence of WNv, will also show great spatial variation across the study area. The results of this study will provide data to aid in policy decisions, such as listing the sage grouse under the ESA, as well as management of the species with respect to increased energy development in the region.

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Talk INNOVATIVE STORMWATER MANAGEMENT IN MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES: AN ADAPTATION APPROACH TO INCREASED CLIMATIC VARIABILITY. SCHREIER, HANS Institute for Resources & Environment, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C. Canada Mountain communities are particularly vulnerable to increased storm events and it is becoming evident that conventional stormwater systems are no longer adequate. A wide range of innovative techniques are now available to minimize stormwater runoff from individual properties but they need to be integrated with systems developed in the neighborhoods and within the watershed. Zero runoff from individual properties is possible for most low and intermediate storms using roofwater collection and infiltration systems, minimizing impervious surfaces, creating green roofs and requiring significant amounts of topsoil in the garden area. A water balance model has been developed to determine what the need and the capacity of these systems should be. The innovations at the property level need to be linked to systems built in the neighborhood that deal with street runoff and larger storm events. Pervious pavement, permeable parking lots, and streets with no curbs, gutters and pipes are developed to minimize stormwater generation. For very large storms selective areas are being identified for flood storage in the form of ponds and wetland that can not only detain the water but filter out a significant amount of pollutants. The combination of these measures is the best adaptive management strategy for mountain communities in order to cope with increased storm variability. Examples of these innovative techniques are currently being tested in many communities and examples of successful adaptation techniques that are cost effective and more environmentally friendly will be presented. Poster VERIFICATION OF GRIDDED CLIMATE DATA IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SIMERAL, DAVID B. (1), ABATZOGLOU, JOHN, T. (1), REDMOND, KELLY T. (1), AND MCCURDY, GREG, D. (1) (1) Desert Research Institute (DRI), Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), Reno, NV 89512 We present preliminary analysis and results from several DRI-WRCC observational networks located in the central and eastern Sierra Nevada as well as in the White Mountains of California. Specific sites chosen for analysis include three geographically distinct locations including: a mountain valley (Owens Valley), three high-elevation mountaintop sites (Mt. Warren, Slide Mountain, White Mountain Peak), and two forested sites (Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, Onion Creek Experimental Forest). Our overall objectives were twofold: 1) to compare fine-scale temperature observations (maximum, minimum, and mean) with the climate mapping system, PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model), utilizing Geographic Information Systems; and 2) to examine how well mountaintop temperature and wind observations correlate with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. Poster SNOW AVALANCHE PATH ECOLOGY: EXAMPLES FROM THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, COLORADO SIMONSON, SARA (1,4), STOHLGREN, THOMAS (1,2), LANDRY, CHRIS (3), AND FASSNACHT, STEVEN (4) (1) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523; (2) US Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO 80526; (3) Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies, Silverton, CO 81433 USA; (4) Earth Sciences Watershed Program, Geosciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523

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We present results from an initial evaluation of landscape ecology approaches to characterize avalanche paths based on patterns of plant species composition and evidence of disturbance. Combined with snow system monitoring data and records of historical avalanche incidents, landscape patterns of plant diversity can be used to quantify and map the frequency and magnitude of snow slide events. Below treeline, forest vegetation can shelter slopes, slowing the redistribution of snow due to wind and shading the snow surface from solar radiation. Intact forest vegetation can influence the formation of cohesive slabs and potentially prevent the initiation of snow slides. However, many avalanches occur high above treeline in steep alpine terrain. Once a snow slide is initiated, the mass of moving snow can mobilize anything in its path. Near Silverton, Colorado, a series of snow storms in January of 2005 resulted in many avalanche paths running full track at 30 and 100 year return frequency. Many avalanches cut fresh trimlines, widening their tracks by uprooting, stripping, and breaking mature trees. Powerful avalanches deposited massive piles of snow, rocks, and woody debris in their runout zones. We used cross-section discs and cores of representative downed trees to detect dendro-ecological signals of past snow avalanche disturbance, including variation in the relative width of annual growth rings, formation of traumatic resin ducts, development of reaction wood in response to tilting, and impact scars from the moving snow and associated wind blast. Our preliminary measurements of plant diversity and disturbance along the elevation gradient of an avalanche path near Silverton indicate that avalanche activity contributes to the high local plant species diversity, influences patterns of forest cover, and provides opportunities for new seedling establishment. Poster DIFFERENTIAL EFFECTS OF ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION ON ASPEN LITTER DECOMPOSITION IN RELATION TO PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY SMITH, WILLIAM K. (1), STELTZER, HEIDI (1), TREE, ROGER (2), MATTHEW WALLENSTEIN (1), GAO, WEI (1, 2), AND PARTON, WILLIAM J. (1) (1)Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80521, (2) UV-B Monitoring and Research Program, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, C), 80521

Altered ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion, changing cloud conditions, and decreased snow cover may affect litter decomposition and thus the carbon balance of western U.S. ecosystems. Litter decomposition rates vary across biomes, and patterns of decay indicate UV-B radiation accelerates litter decay in environments where precipitation is infrequent. In these environments, water availability constrains biotic activity, so that photodegradation by UV-B radiation increases litter decay rates. We conducted a litter decomposition experiment using aspen (Populus tremuloides) litter to determine if the effects of UV-B radiation on litter decomposition vary in relation to precipitation frequency and biotic activity. Aspen was selected as the model species, because it is economically important and has a wide-distribution that includes high elevations where UV-B radiation is elevated. Precipitation frequency was manipulated by returning soil to 60% water holding capacity at 4-, 12- and 24-day intervals. Artificial UV-B irradiance was supplied by fluorescent UVB-313 lamps and included control (0 kJm-2d-1), ambient (7.8 kJm-2d-1), and elevated (10.4 kJm-2d-1) treatments determined using biologically weighted clear-sky field measurements. The experiment also included a direct manipulation of biological activity through sterilization. Our results show that UV-B radiation does not consistently accelerate litter decomposition. Using Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) we show that the combination of a negative UV-B effect and a positive effect of biotic activity best explained litter decay rates observed in the 4-day water treatment (wr=0.68, r2=0.70) and a positive UV-B effect alone best explained litter decay rates observed in the 24-day water treatment (wr=0.511, r2=0.59). In the 12-day water treatment, there was equal support in the data for no treatment effects (wr=0.373, r2=0.43) and the effect of biotic activity (wr=0.331, r2=0.43). UV-B radiation will likely increase in the western U.S. as conditions become more arid and its effect on litter decomposition and the consequences for ecosystem carbon losses will depend on patterns of precipitation. Invited Talk

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ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN FOREST MANAGEMENT – A MANAGAMENT AGENCY RESPONSE SPITTLEHOUSE, DAVID L. Research Branch, BC Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W9C2 Climate change will challenge the ability of forest management agencies to meet society’s needs. Climate change will act in concert with global competition, changing consumer demands for forest products and social values. Users of forest and range resources will have differing vulnerabilities to change. An important component of adaptation will be balancing differing values. Recent increases in fire and insect infestations in British Columbia and consideration of carbon as a commodity has highlighted the need for all of the forestry community to become engaged. The Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative (FFEI) was established by the British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range to develop a plan to adapt our forest and range management framework to a changing climate. It has two desired outcomes: ecosystems remain resilient to stress caused by climate change, human activity, and other agents of change; and ecosystems continue to provide the services, products, and benefits society depends on. Initial objectives are: to establish baseline information for forecasting and monitoring ecosystem changes; and to forecast how a range of climate change scenarios might affect key species and ecological processes over time. Adapting the forest to climate change includes revising species selection guidelines, facilitated migration of species, and developing fire-smart landscapes. Adaptation of forest management techniques includes changing rotation age, revising conservation objectives and developing forest policy to encourage adaptation. However, society and the management agencies must also respond by changing expectations on the use forest and range resources because management can only influence the timing and direction of adaptation at selected locations. Although it will be a number of years before adaptive actions will be implemented “on the ground, in the forest”, consultation, capacity building and vulnerability assessments constitute the first steps in the adaptation process. Poster MULTI-PROXY STUDIES IN PALEOLIMNOLOGY – HOW MANY PROXIES IS ENOUGH? STARRATT, SCOTT U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025 The use of multiple proxies to evaluate environmental change is becoming increasingly common in paleolimnology studies. The proxies utilized in a given study are controlled by the research questions that need to be answered, as well as the characteristics of the site. A reliable chronology is essential to a multi-proxy study. In late Quaternary and Holocene studies AMS 14C dating of plant material (needles, seeds) can provide sub-centennial resolution. Recent sediments (last 200 years) can be dated using 210Pb, 137Cs, or 241Am. In rare cases, a record of annual, and at times, seasonal variability, can be obtained from varved sediments. In most cases, however, physical and biological processes yield a record of variability that is integrated over a period of several years. In some instances, the sediments may contain recycled material from other parts of the basin. Understanding the seasonal cycle of biological and detrital sediment input and the temporal nature of the sediment record preserved are critical in choosing the appropriate proxies. Proxy data from two lakes in northern California are divided into physical (density, magnetic susceptibility, grain size, loss-on-ignition, geochemistry, stable isotope) and biological (diatoms, pollen). The data from the lakes are compared to the record of physical and biological proxies at Ocean Drilling Program Site 1019, located on the northern California margin. The results from Medicine Lake suggest that additional proxies are needed to evaluate the effect that changes in the catchment basin such as variations in sediment influx rates or lake level have on the composition of the diatom flora. At Swamp Lake, the addition of carbon and nitrogen isotope data, identified the primary organic matter contributors, but did little to explain the pattern of biogenic silica variation. The question of the minimum number of calibrations sites necessary for adequate characterization of modern limnological conditions is also addressed.

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Talk FIELD-BASED VEGETATION MONITORING THROUGH SPECTRAL TECHNOLOGIES: SUCCESSES AND LIMITATIONS STELTZER, HEIDI (1) AND CHONG, GENEVA (2) (1) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory and (2) Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499; (2) US Geological Survey Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center and Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Jackson, WY 83001-2353 New approaches to monitor vegetation are needed to detect and understand the effects of land use and global environmental changes on ecosystem structure and function in western U.S. mountain regions. Spectral technologies that measure the intensity of light reflected from the earth’s surface can provide improved quantitative assessment of vegetation at many scales. These technologies, which are regularly used for airborne and space-based assessments of vegetation (i.e. remote sensing), can also be used on ground-based platforms (i.e. near-surface sensing). Although spectrometers, multi-band sensors, or multi-spectral cameras have often been used on ground-based platforms to develop models for interpreting remotely sensed data, near-surface sensing has less frequently been used to monitor vegetation in field-based monitoring programs or experimental climate change studies. Yet, using spectral technologies to collect closely sensed data could transform field-based vegetation monitoring. Closely sensed data can be used to monitor plant physiology, phenology, community composition, and ecosystem structure and function in response to land management and environmental change. These technologies have the potential to improve data quality and reduce the cost of vegetation monitoring in field-based studies. We will discuss successes and limitations of using near-surface sensing for vegetation monitoring in our research. Examples we will discuss include the use of multi-spectral imagery to structure a sampling plan in a spatially heterogeneous ecosystem, to monitor vegetation in alpine tundra and in a semi-arid steppe ecosystem, and to characterize vegetation cover and soil carbon pools in restored grasslands. Interdisciplinary collaborations are essential to further advance these technologies and enable widespread use. Talk TAKING THE PULSE OF MOUNTAIN FORESTS: THE CORDILLERA FOREST DYNAMICS NETWORK (CORFOR) STEPHENSON, NATE (1), DUQUE, ALVARO (2), ALVAREZ, ESTEBAN (3), CARILLA, JULIETA (4), DANIELS, LORI (5), GRAU, RICARDO (4), GREENWOOD, GREG (6), HARMON, MARK (7), ORREGO, SERGIO (2), VAN MANTGEM, PHIL (1), VEBLEN, TOM (8) (1) US Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, 47050 Generals Hwy #4, Three Rivers, CA 93271, USA (2) Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Calle 59A # 63-20, Medellín, Colombia, (3) Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. (ISA), Calle 12 sur No. 18-168, Medellín, Colombia, (4) Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (UNT), Laboratorio de Investigaciones Ecológicas de las Yungas (LIEY), cc 34 (4107) Yerba Buena, Tucumán, Argentina, (5) University of British Columbia, Department of Geography, 217-1984 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z2, Canada, (6) Mountain Research Initiative, University of Bern, Erlachstrasse 9A Trakt 3, 3012 Bern, Switzerland, (7) Oregon State University, Department of Forest Science, 321 Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA, (8) University of Colorado, Department of Geography, 110 Guggenheim, Boulder, CO 80309, USA Ongoing global changes may have far-reaching effects on forests, and hence on society. Additionally, forests sequester the majority of the terrestrial biosphere’s carbon, making them potentially key contributors of feedbacks to global climatic changes. However, even though networks of long-term forest plots are powerful tools for detecting, understanding, and forecasting forest changes, broad-scale international networks so far have been limited to tropical lowland forests. Thus, with the assistance of the Mountain Research Initiative and as a working group of the larger America Cordillera Transect of scientific research, we have established the Cordillera Forest Dynamics Network (CORFOR). CORFOR

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is unique in maintaining hundreds of long-term forest monitoring plots across extraordinarily broad latitudinal and elevational gradients – from the tropics through both the northern and southern temperate zones (Canada to Argentina), and from near sea level to 3500 m. Further environmental variability is added by east-west precipitation gradients crossing the Cordillera, broad gradients of topography and soils, and a wide variety of land use and disturbance histories. CORFOR thus offers unique opportunities to understand environmental controls of forest structure, composition, biodiversity, and dynamics, and thus drivers of forest change. We present some of our findings so far, revealing strong environmental controls of forest dynamics, and possible ongoing temperature-driven changes in forests.

Poster ESTABLISHING GLORIA* LONG-TERM ALPINE MONITORING IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SWERHUN, KRISTINA (1), JAMIESON, GLEN (2), SMITH, DAN J. (1) AND TURNER, NANCY J. (3) (1) Department of Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria, B.C. V8N 3L1, (2) Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, B.C. V9T 6N7, (3) School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, B.C. V8P 5C2 This research established long-term alpine monitoring in southwestern British Columbia by following the protocol outlined in the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine environments (GLORIA). Sites for long-term monitoring were established on the Mount Arrowsmith Massif on Vancouver Island (Arrowsmith Biosphere Reserve) and in close proximity to Whistler Mountain (Garibaldi Provincial Park) in the summer of 2006. The aim of the GLORIA project is to develop a long-term, world-wide database of standardized observations of alpine biodiversity, vegetation patterns and mountain-top temperature. In both the Arrowsmith and Whistler target regions, the most dominant species in terms of cover were woody plants and included mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana), white mountain-heather ( Cassiope mertensiana) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). Thirty-nine vascular plant species were common to both target regions, 36 species were inventoried only in the Arrowsmith region and 28 species were only recorded in the Whistler region. No conclusive trends in species numbers were evident from baseline data. With plans to monitor and resurvey at five- to ten-year intervals, the sites established in this project document current plant species composition, and will allow assessment over the long term of changes in biodiversity attributable to change in climate. *Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (www.gloria.ac.at) Poster ECOTONES AND VEGETATION BANDS: 70 YEARS OF VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA THORNE, JAMES (1), DOBROWSKI, SOLOMON (2), BOYNTON, RYAN (1), THRASHER, SARAH (1), BJORKMAN, JACKIE (1), SAFFORD, HUGH (3) (1) Department Environmental Science and Policy, UC Davis, Davis CA 95616, (2) Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 95812, (3) USFS, Vallejo, CA 94592 The Wieslander Vegetation Type (VTM) survey provides landcover and vegetation plot data from the 1930s for over 50,000 km2 of the central and northern Sierra Nevada Mountains. Comparison of the historic data to modern landcover maps and plots permits assessment of vegetation change by area occupied, by elevation of ecotones, by transition of vegetation types, and by estimates change in forest structure. For map-based analyses, we standardized scales between historic and contemporary maps with a 300m grid. For each grid cell we assigned a majority vegetation type in each time period. We sampled historic temperature and precipitation by month to 40-year averages around 1934 and current time and assigned estimated changes in climate to every cell. We also sampled topographic variables and fire frequencies to the same grids. We used map-based changes in vegetation type area extent, ecotone elevation and a transition matrix to identify changes that could be related to climate change.

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We present upslope shifts in the lower edge ecotones for vegetation types dominated by Pinus ponderosa, P. jeffreyi, Abies magnifica, Subalpine conifers and mixed hardwood conifers. Upper edge Ecotone advancing shifts for Sierra Mixed Conifer and Montane hardwood conifers, and retracting shifts for Ponderosa pine, are presented. We also present evidence of expansion of hardwoods in their current elevational belt, an expansion consistent with expected future climate conditions. Many changes measured through use of the historic vegetation maps and climate data that are consistent with future expected climate conditions. We examined whether these changes could be corroborated with measurements using vegetation plots from the two time periods. The plots from each time period were used as samples of the landscape, rather than being revisited. Plots were used to examine elevation distributions of species in each time, and to examine changes in basal area, in 4 size classes.

Talk WIDESPREAD INCREASE OF TREE MORTALITY RATES IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES VAN MANTGEM, PHILLIP J. (1), STEPHENSON, NATHAN L. (1), BYRNE, JOHN C. (2), DANIELS, LORI D. (3), FRANKLIN, JERRY F. (4), FULÉ, PETER Z. (5), HARMON, MARK E. (6), SMITH, JEREMY M. (7), TAYLOR, ALAN H. (8), VEBLEN, THOMAS T. (7) (1) USGS, Sequoia and Kings Canyon Field Station, 47050 Generals Highway, Three Rivers, CA 93271, (2) Rocky Mountain Research Station, 1221 South Main Street, Moscow, ID 83843, (3) Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, 217-1984 West Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T IZ2, (4) College of Forest Resources, Box 352100, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, (5) School of Forestry and Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Box 15018, Flagstaff AZ 86011, (6) Department of Forest Science, 210 Richardson Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, (7) Department of Geography, Campus Box 260, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, (8) Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 Old growth forests are expected to be near demographic equilibrium, with generally equivalent recruitment and mortality rates that remain constant through time. However, we present evidence that in recent decades annual mortality rates have increased substantially and significantly (0.71% to 1.14%) in old growth forests across the western United States. Our data consist of repeated censuses of >60,000 trees from 76 permanent plots (average starting year = 1984, average ending year = 2001) distributed across major western US forested regions (Pacific Northwest coastal ranges, Cascades, Sierra Nevada, northern Arizona, northern and central Rocky Mountains). Mortality rates not only increased in each of these regions, but also within dominant taxonomic groups (Abies, Pinus, Pseudotsuga, Tsuga; with the single exception of Calocedrus), and across elevational zones and tree size classes. Increasing mortality is not likely due to increasing competition, as stand density and basal area significantly declined during our observations. Increasing mortality rates are correlated with both increasing temperatures and increasing climatic water deficits. While these correlations do not prove causation, they suggest that recent warming trends may have contributed to a widespread response in old growth forests, potentially leading to systematic changes in stand structure, habitat quality, fire hazard, and carbon storage. Invited Talk MANAGING RESOURCES IN AN ERA OF UNCERTAINTY WELLING, LEIGH Climate Change Coordinator, National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Rapid climate change presents significant threats to National Park resources and resource values. While resource management decisions must be based on future expectations, the future under climate change cannot be predicted with as much accuracy and precision as we would like. Climate change scenario planning offers a tool for developing a science-based decision-making framework in the face of an

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uncertain future. Scenario planning does not require precise future predictions, but explores a range of predictions to allow us to begin thinking through what appropriate responses might be. By helping to envision alternative futures, scenarios can be used as a tool to identify policies and actions that will lead to various outcomes. Major benefits of this approach are (1) increased understanding of key uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, and (3) improved capacity for adaptive management. An overview of scenario planning will be presented along with case study results from Joshua Tree National Park. Poster A RECORD OF LONG-TERM HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER WISE, ERIKA K Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research and Department of Geography, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 A multitude of activities and livelihoods depend on rivers systems that originate in the mountains of western Wyoming. This area experiences a high degree of hydroclimatic variability due to physiographic, meteorological, and teleconnection influences. Additionally, much of the West is in the midst of a multi-year drought that has placed a renewed sense of urgency on water availability issues. This study presents a preliminary first dendrochronological streamflow reconstruction for the upper Snake River at Jackson Dam. Tree-ring samples were collected from Pinus flexilis, Pinus Ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii trees in Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana, allowing for a study of the climatic processes that impact the watershed on time scales longer than those available from the instrumental record. Tree-ring cores were dated to the calendar year through crossdating, and ring widths were measured. Correlation and response function models were used to establish relationships between climatic variables and tree growth, and a statistical model was created to calibrate and validate the reconstruction of annual streamflow. Objectives of this project include helping place recent climatic events in the context of natural climatic variability and providing water managers with a record of long-term natural variability to aid planning for and mitigating high-flow and drought impacts. Poster INTERPRETING AND REFINING THE CLIMATE SIGNAL IN MILLENNIAL-LENGTH 5-NEEDLE PINE CHRONOLOGIES WOODHOUSE, CONNIE (1), GRAY, STEPHEN (2), HUGHES, MALCOLM (3), KIPFMUELLER, KURT (4), PEDERSON, GREG (5), SALZER, MATTHEW (3), BROWN, PETER (6), AND LUKAS, JEFFREY (7) (1) Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, (2) Wyoming State Climate Office, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 82071, (3) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, (4) Department of Geography, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, (5) School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, (6) Rocky Mountain Tree-Ring Research, Ft. Collins, CO 80526, (7) Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 In the western U.S., long-lived 5-needle pines (Pinus flexilis, P.albicaulis, P. balfouriana, P. aristata, and P. longaeva) have great potential to provide high-resolution, multi-millennial length records of past climate. These pines are widely distributed, grow at or near tree line, and in conjunction with their length of record, may provide useful spatiotemporal estimates of temperature and moisture. However, the relationship between growth and climate in these species is often complex and difficult to interpret. We have undertaken a systematic survey of all available 5-needle pine chronologies in the western U.S. to assess climate/growth response, and to develop a basis for understanding how these chronologies may be most appropriately use in climate reconstructions. We are using a range of strategies to investigate the nature of the climate signal in these trees and the best ways to isolate and extract the proxy climate information. Investigations include spatial and trend analyses, wavelet decomposition, process modeling,

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and comparisons of these chronologies with those known to have a robust climate signal. To date, a common database has been generated, and a set of preliminary results has been generated. At a May workshop, we synthesized results so far, and these results are presented here. The ultimate goal of this two-year project is to produce results to guide future work, both in terms of the use these 5-needle pine chronologies as proxies for climate data, and for identifying species and locations to be targeted for new collections that would be useful for studying past climate.