MSEC ORIENTATION AUGUST 21, 2003 COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS MSEC Orientation 2003 Michael...
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Transcript of MSEC ORIENTATION AUGUST 21, 2003 COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS MSEC Orientation 2003 Michael...
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
MSEC Orientation 2003
Michael I. ShamosCo-Director
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Is eCommerce dead?
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SOURCE: PWC
May 12, 2003
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Which is the largestused-car dealer in the U.S.?
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
The Internet Bubble
NASDAQ 19-YR CHART
NORMAL GROWTH
BUBBLE
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
What Happened?
• New Technology• Gold Rush• “Irrational Exuberance”• Disdain for profit• Fraud by Stock Brokers
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
The Bubble Expanded
NASDAQ 9-YR CHART
NORMAL
GROWTH
GOVERNMENTINTERNET
SPONSORSHIPENDS 5/95
INTEGRATEDWEB BROWSER
6/98
AMAZON IPO5/97
EBAY IPO5/98
WEBMETHODS IPO 2/00
NASDAQPEAK 3/00
WEBVANIPO 11/99
ETOYS IPO 5/99
BLODGETT AMAZONPREDICTION 12/98
PAINE WEBBERQUALCOMM
PREDICTION 12/99
SEPT. 11, 2001
WEBVAN BKRPT 7/01
ETOYS BKRPT 3/01
BOO.COM BKRPT 5/00
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KITA
JULY 24, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
373
543
339
77 66
(projected)
10
U.S. Initial Public Offerings
Time2001 2002 2003200019991998
NASDAQIXIC
5000
2004
1000
MAY 12 CLOSE1541.40
MARCH 10, 20005048.62
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
The Index Phenomenon
• Most companies in an industry can’t beat their stock index
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
eCommerce Forecasting• B2B (World)
– Prediction in 1999: $1.3 trillion by 2003– Actual: $2.4 trillion (50% U.S.)– 2004: online B2B 10% of World Economic Product
• B2C (U.S)– Prediction in 1999: $108 billion by 2003– Actual: $95 billion (including 9/11, recession & war)
• Productivity– Prediction in 2000: $250 billion/yr by 2005– Actual pace: $450 billion/yr– Average saving $4,500/household, triple the tax cut
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Auto Industry
• 60% of new-car buyers use the Internet• 53% use the Internet before a test drive• “Internet-influenced”• 48 million U.S. users visited automotive websites
in just March 2003• 4% of new-car buyers actually purchase on the
Internet
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Retail
• 4Q (Christmas) online sales up 40% in 2002• Overall retail up 34% in 2002 to $48B• Increase of 30% expected in 2003• Real Estate
– In 2002, almost 50% of home buyers Internet-influenced
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
B2B eBusiness Growth
SOURCE: PWC
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Changing E-Business
Goal: attract VC moneyFocus: Speed, IPOMetric: Revenue growth,
not profit
Goal: Integrate EB within existing business.
Focus: Efficiency, optimization
Metric: Economic value
Static Brochure(1994-1996)
• Product information• Financial statements• Contact information
Transactions(1996-1999)
• Product catalog• Online ordering• Online payments• Order tracking• Build-to-order
Automated Business Processes (1999-)
• Personalized content• Interactivity• Real-time integrated data (warehouses)• Business intelligence (OLAP)
SOURCE: A. BHATTACHERJEE
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Native Language of Internet Users 03/03
SOURCE: GLREACH.COM
• ENGLISH WAS 49% IN 2001 40% IN 2002
• KOREAN DOWN FROM 4.4% IN 2002
• CHINESE GREW FROM 9.8% TO 11.9%, RISE OF 21% IN 1 YEAR
• ENGLISH WILL DROP TO UNDER 25%
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Language of Web Pages
English 68.4%
Japanese 5.9%
German 5.8%
Chinese 3.9%
French 3.0%
Spanish 2.4%
Russian 1.9%
Italian 1.6%
Portuguese 1.4%
Korean 1.3%
Other 4.4%
Total Web pages: 313 B
0.8% OF WORLDPOPULATION
SOURCE: VILAWEB.COM
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
The MSEC Program
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Who You Are• 31 students from 6 countries:
U.S. (9), Korea (18), China (1), Taiwan (1), France (1), Thailand (1)
• 23 international students: 74%, same as last year• 5 women: 16%
• M.S. (3)• MBA (2)• M.A. (2)
• Most popular first name: Seung (4). All exceptSeung-eul unique if middle name is included.
• Most popular surnames: Lee (4), Yang (3), Cho (2)
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Who You Are
• Software/IT (10)• Recent graduates (6) • Consulting (4)• Government (2)• Management (non-IT) (2)• Engineering (1)• Insurance (1)
• Average age: 29
• Average years of work experience: 5
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Undergraduate Majors
• Computer Science (9)• Engineering & Science (7)
– Aerospace Engineering (1)– Chemical Engineering (4)– Electrical Engineering (2)– Mechanical Engineering (1)– Physics (1)
• Business/Administration/Economics (4)• Psychology/Political Science/Sociology (4)• Spanish (1)
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Undergraduate Schools
CMU 1 SUNY (Buffalo) 1
Hankuk U Foreign Studies (Seoul) 2 SungKyunKwan U (Suwon) 1
Michigan State (East Lansing, MI) 1 Tsinghua University (Beijing) 1
National Tsinghua (Hsinchu, Taiwan) 1 U of California (Berkeley, CA) 1
New York U (NY) 1 U of California (Los Angeles) 1
Pohang U (Pohang) 1 U of Pittsburgh 1
Rensselaer Polytechnic (Troy, NY) 1 U of Southern California (LA) 1
Seoul National U (Seoul) 4 Washington U (St. Louis, MO) 1
Sogang U (Seoul) 3 Wake Forest (Winston-Salem, NC) 1
Soongsil U Seoul) 1 Yonsei U (Seoul) 4
Stanford (Palo Alto, CA) 1
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Graduate Schools
Georgetown U (Washington) 1
Macalester College (St. Paul, MN) 1
National Tsinghua (Hsinchu, Taiwan) 1
Penn State (State College, PA) 1
U Massachusetts (Amherst, MA) 1
Yonsei U (Seoul) 2
Degrees: Comp. Sci./EE (4) Internet Technology (1) MBA (2)
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
What is eCommerce?
• Application of electronic technology to business process re-engineering
• How does technology affect business processes and enable new business models?
• How do business considerations influence technology uptake?
• You need to know business• You need to know technology• So the program is ½ business, ½ technology
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
The Technology Side• eCommerce Technology• Communications and Networking• Java for eCommerce• The Internet• Computer Security• Electronic Payment Systems• Web-based Information Architectures• Human-Computer Interaction• eCommerce Systems Design• Databases + electives• PRACTICUM
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
12-Month Plan
Aug - Oct Mini 1. Rigorous preparation CONFUSION
October Recruiting/job placement begins TERROR
Oct - Dec Mini 2. Rigorous preparation MAYBE I CAN DO THIS
Jan - Mar Mini 3. Applications, electives IT ALL MAKES SENSE
Mar - May Mini 4. Applications, electives THIS IS EASY
May - Aug Minis 5 - 6. Practicum IT COMES TOGETHER
Aug. 2004 GraduationIT WAS WORTH IT
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Opportunities• Most wired (and wireless) campus in the U.S.• Largest academic computer science research establishment in the U.S. (250
professionals). Ranked #1.• Business school (#17 U.S. News, #2 in Information Systems, #2 in Quantitative
Analysis, #3 in Production/Operations)• Computer Emergency Response Team• Birthplace of numerous eCommerce technologies:
– Lycos– NetBill– Postal Information-Based Indicia
• CMU graduates have developed:– Java– SSL– AltaVista
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Student Clubs/Committees• Feedback Committee
– Organized by students– Committee of 3 meets with Directors within 2 weeks of start
of each mini– Purpose: report course problems, make suggestions
• Speakers Committee– Purpose: arrange for outside speakers
• eCommerce Club• Website Committee
– Works on eCommerce website
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
eCommerce Practicum
• A real problem from a real company that pays real money for a solution. 28 Practicums from 20 sponsors:
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
Automating the Rivers:
Port of Pittsburgh CommissionPracticum Project
2003
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MSEC ORIENTATION
AUGUST 21, 2003
COPYRIGHT © 2003 MICHAEL I. SHAMOS
eCommerce Technology 20-751
• Reading assignment for Monday, August 25:
Chapter 1 of Chan et al., E-commerce: Fundamentals and applications