[Ms. Schippa] What We Can Learn From Measuring Peace
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Transcript of [Ms. Schippa] What We Can Learn From Measuring Peace
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What We Can Learn From Measuring Peace
Camilla SchippaInstitute for Economics and Peace
Global Peace ConventionKuala Lumpur, 6 December 2013
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What do we know about PEACE?
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Why Measure Peace?
Never been done before
Peace is poorly understood
Peace should and can be measured
Through measuring peace its texture can be analysed
Without measurement, it is hard to know whether our actions are helping or hindering us in achieving our goals
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Defining Peace
Peace is more than the absence of war
Defined peace as the “Absence of Violence”
This definition allows for measurements of both internal and external peacefulness
“Positive Peace” is uncovered via the correlation of other data sets and indexes
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The Global Peace Index
Now in its seventh year
Ranks 162 nations (up from 121 in 2007)
According to their relative states of peace
Using 22 indicators weighted on a 1-5 scale
Developed by the Institute for Economics & Peace
Guided and overseen by a Panel of International Experts
With data collected and collated by the Economist Intelligence Unit
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22 Indicators
5 measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict such as: number of conflicts fought and number of deaths from organised conflict
10 measures of societal safety and security including: number of displaced people, terrorist activity, number of homicides, number of jailed population
7 measures of militarisation such as: military expenditure, number of armed service personnel, ease of access to small weapons
Overall score weighted 60% for internal peace & 40% for external peace.
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GPI MAP
Global Peace Index 2013
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Six-Year Trends 2008 - 2013
Publication Year
GPI average Score
Countries whose peace increased
Countries whose peace decreased
Countries with no score change
2008 1.958
2009 1.995 52 84 2
2010 2.025 58 83 2
2011 2.038 79 69 0
2012 2.046 73 80 0
2013 2.057 73 73 121 being peaceful, 5 being un-peaceful
The GPI score deteriorated by 5% over the period
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2008 compared to 2013
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
GPI scorings bands
% o
f G
PI co
untr
ies
wit
h s
core
in t
hat
band
Longer and bigger tail= less peaceful bottom ten
Split = unequal distribution of peace
The bottom ten nations have become less peaceful, Afghanistan less peaceful in 2013 than Iraq in 2008
--- 2008 --- 2013
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The fall in global peacefulness is largely driven by changes in internal peacefulness
External
Overall
Internal
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18
Global Peace Index Score - 2008 to 2013, increases in score reflect decrease in peace
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Number of deaths from organised internal conflict have significantly increased
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
World Total Number of Deaths from Internal Conflict
37,269 114,705 112,999 96,009 128,178 178,287
Source: IISS Armed Conflict Database; EIU data,
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The Pillars of Peace
“The attitudes, institutions and structures that encourage and sustain a peaceful society”
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The Pillars of PeaceThe attitudes, institutions and structures that sustain a peaceful society
Analysed over 4,700 variables covering:
o The macro-economy; o Social relationships and attitudes; o Economic and social development; o Economic and social integration; o The functioning and structure of government.
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The Pillars of Peace
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Positive Peace Index Indicators
INSERT MAP
Positive Peace 2013
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Negative Peace versus Positive Peace
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Weak Pillars = Greater Vulnerability
Big fallers with positive peace deficits in 2008:
Syria RwandaMadagascarEgypt
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IEP has developed a methodology to calculate the:
- Global Cost of Violence Containment
The economic activity that is related to the consequences or prevention of violence where the violence is directed against people or property.
Global Monetary Value of Peace
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Estimated to be US$9.46 trillion or 11% of Gross World Product in 2012
US$25 billion per day
US$1,300 per person, per year
Global Monetary Value of Peace
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Violence Containment is larger than…
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Virtuous Cycle of Reducing Violence and Violence Containment Spending
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