MS ritger Hagfræ i Áhrifavaldar gengislei niMS ritger! Hagfræ!i Áhrifavaldar gengislei!ni...
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MS ritger! Hagfræ!i Áhrifavaldar gengislei!ni Hagrannsókn me! áherslu á íslenska hagsmuni Elís Pétursson Lei!beinandi: Gylfi Zoëga Hagfræ!ideild Október 2013
Transcript of MS ritger Hagfræ i Áhrifavaldar gengislei niMS ritger! Hagfræ!i Áhrifavaldar gengislei!ni...
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Hagfræ!i
Áhrifavaldar gengislei!ni Hagrannsókn me! áherslu á íslenska hagsmuni
Elís Pétursson
Lei!beinandi: Gylfi Zoëga
Hagfræ!ideild
Október 2013
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Model 1: OLS, using observations 1-25 Dependent variable: pt12
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const -19.3981 7.42637 -2.6121 0.01628 ** pim 4.28469 1.41394 3.0303 0.00636 *** pop 0.0166073 0.0506719 0.3277 0.74635 er 3.0779 1.19569 2.5742 0.01769 **
Mean dependent var 12.61009 S.D. dependent var 19.81542 Sum squared resid 4300.594 S.E. of regression 14.31049
R-squared 0.543637 Adjusted R-squared 0.478442 F(3, 21) 8.338654 P-value(F) 0.000765
Log-likelihood -99.81887 Akaike criterion 207.6377 Schwarz criterion 212.5132 Hannan-Quinn 208.9900
!
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Model 2: OLS, using observations 1-25
Dependent variable: pt24
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value const -34.2415 16.6617 -2.0551 0.05252 * pim 11.1123 3.17229 3.5029 0.00212 *** pop -0.0243302 0.113687 -0.2140 0.83260 er 4.64649 2.68264 1.7321 0.09793 *
Mean dependent var 27.56026 S.D. dependent var 43.80957 Sum squared resid 21647.87 S.E. of regression 32.10686
R-squared 0.530035 Adjusted R-squared 0.462897 F(3, 21) 7.894715 P-value(F) 0.001030
!
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Log-likelihood -120.0208 Akaike criterion 248.0416 Schwarz criterion 252.9171 Hannan-Quinn 249.3938
!
KM `39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!Ka!S8,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lcm!~!N/),01*)#17!7T7,>!
! Model 3: OLS, using observations 1-25
Dependent variable: pt36
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value const -41.6623 22.9654 -1.8141 0.08397 * pim 16.7466 4.37247 3.8300 0.00097 *** pop -0.0392769 0.156698 -0.2507 0.80452 er 4.64102 3.69756 1.2552 0.22321
Mean dependent var 38.01754 S.D. dependent var 60.64152 Sum squared resid 41126.55 S.E. of regression 44.25389
R-squared 0.534016 Adjusted R-squared 0.467447 F(3, 21) 8.021982 P-value(F) 0.000945
Log-likelihood -128.0426 Akaike criterion 264.0853 Schwarz criterion 268.9608 Hannan-Quinn 265.4375
!
VM `39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!JH!S8,/9/!)PP%/2,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lcm!~!NT9)9!7T7,>!
Model 4: OLS, using observations 1-25
Dependent variable: pt12R
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value const 1.57301 3.46859 0.4535 0.65484 pimR 0.609989 0.155692 3.9179 0.00079 *** popR -0.00592935 0.150702 -0.0393 0.96899 erR 0.274939 0.154089 1.7843 0.08883 *
Mean dependent var 13.00000 S.D. dependent var 7.359801 Sum squared resid 606.8753 S.E. of regression 5.375763
R-squared 0.533173 Adjusted R-squared 0.466483 F(3, 21) 7.994843 P-value(F) 0.000962
Log-likelihood -75.34156 Akaike criterion 158.6831 Schwarz criterion 163.5586 Hannan-Quinn 160.0354
!
[M `39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!HV!S8,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lcm!~!NT9)9!7T7,>!
!
[g!
Model 5: OLS, using observations 1-25 Dependent variable: pt24R
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const 3.2302 3.85185 0.8386 0.41113 pimR 0.618494 0.172895 3.5773 0.00178 *** popR 0.0244017 0.167354 0.1458 0.88546 erR 0.108628 0.171115 0.6348 0.53240
Mean dependent var 13.00000 S.D. dependent var 7.359801 Sum squared resid 748.3970 S.E. of regression 5.969753
R-squared 0.424310 Adjusted R-squared 0.342069 F(3, 21) 5.159323 P-value(F) 0.007900
Log-likelihood -77.96168 Akaike criterion 163.9234 Schwarz criterion 168.7989 Hannan-Quinn 165.2756
!
aM `39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!Ka!S8,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lcm!~!NT9)9!7T7,>!
Model 6: OLS, using observations 1-25
Dependent variable: pt36R
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value const 4.04816 4.01342 1.0087 0.32462 pimR 0.571517 0.180147 3.1725 0.00459 *** popR -0.00144181 0.174373 -0.0083 0.99348 erR 0.118528 0.178292 0.6648 0.51342
Mean dependent var 13.00000 S.D. dependent var 7.359801 Sum squared resid 812.4958 S.E. of regression 6.220151
R-squared 0.375003 Adjusted R-squared 0.285718 F(3, 21) 4.200058 P-value(F) 0.017804
Log-likelihood -78.98890 Akaike criterion 165.9778 Schwarz criterion 170.8533 Hannan-Quinn 167.3301
!
jM `39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!JH!S8,/9/!)PP%/2,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lgm!~!N/),01*)#17!7T7,>!
Model 7: OLS, using observations 1-18
Dependent variable: pt12L
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value const -14.6785 7.89273 -1.8598 0.08406 * pim 4.2529 1.48078 2.8721 0.01230 ** pop 0.00367692 0.049273 0.0746 0.94157 er 2.37738 1.25074 1.9008 0.07812 *
Mean dependent var 12.88181 S.D. dependent var 19.27405
!
aI!
Sum squared resid 2623.632 S.E. of regression 13.68949 R-squared 0.584560 Adjusted R-squared 0.495537 F(3, 14) 6.566410 P-value(F) 0.005351
Log-likelihood -70.37838 Akaike criterion 148.7568 Schwarz criterion 152.3182 Hannan-Quinn 149.2478
cM `39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!HV!S8,/9/!)PP%/2,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lgm!~!N/),01*)#17!7T7,>!
Model 8: OLS, using observations 1-18
Dependent variable: pt24L
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value const -22.5852 16.9639 -1.3314 0.20434 pim 9.18717 3.18265 2.8866 0.01195 ** pop -0.029579 0.105903 -0.2793 0.78410 er 3.44178 2.68822 1.2803 0.22124
Mean dependent var 25.31656 S.D. dependent var 39.18806 Sum squared resid 12119.90 S.E. of regression 29.42290
R-squared 0.535760 Adjusted R-squared 0.436280 F(3, 14) 5.385604 P-value(F) 0.011242
Log-likelihood -84.15098 Akaike criterion 176.3020 Schwarz criterion 179.8635 Hannan-Quinn 176.7930
!
gM `39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!Ka!S8,/9/!)PP%/2,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lgm!~!N/),01*)#17!7T7,>!
Model 9: OLS, using observations 1-18 Dependent variable: pt36L
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const -23.7233 23.0212 -1.0305 0.32025 pim 11.9043 4.31908 2.7562 0.01546 ** pop -0.0460739 0.143717 -0.3206 0.75326 er 3.35663 3.6481 0.9201 0.37310
Mean dependent var 31.39284 S.D. dependent var 50.56946 Sum squared resid 22320.46 S.E. of regression 39.92891
R-squared 0.486574 Adjusted R-squared 0.376555 F(3, 14) 4.422609 P-value(F) 0.021903
Log-likelihood -89.64688 Akaike criterion 187.2938 Schwarz criterion 190.8552 Hannan-Quinn 187.7848
!
!
aJ!
JIM ̀ 39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!JH!S8,/9/!)PP%/2,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lgm!~!NT9)9!7T7,>!
Model 10: OLS, using observations 1-18
Dependent variable: pt12RL
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value const 3.56027 2.97185 1.1980 0.25081 pimR 0.472771 0.19356 2.4425 0.02845 ** popR -0.229234 0.187023 -1.2257 0.24053 erR 0.381698 0.193514 1.9725 0.06864 *
Mean dependent var 9.500000 S.D. dependent var 5.338539 Sum squared resid 228.7644 S.E. of regression 4.042316
R-squared 0.527834 Adjusted R-squared 0.426656 F(3, 14) 5.216863 P-value(F) 0.012582
Log-likelihood -48.42178 Akaike criterion 104.8436 Schwarz criterion 108.4051 Hannan-Quinn 105.3346
!
JJM ̀ 39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!HV!S8,/9/!)PP%/2,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lgm!~!NT9)9!7T7,>!
Model 11: OLS, using observations 1-18
Dependent variable: pt24RL
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value const 3.89739 3.18486 1.2237 0.24125 pimR 0.496458 0.207434 2.3933 0.03127 ** popR -0.195421 0.200429 -0.9750 0.34610 erR 0.288711 0.207385 1.3921 0.18560
Mean dependent var 9.500000 S.D. dependent var 5.338539 Sum squared resid 262.7350 S.E. of regression 4.332065
R-squared 0.457719 Adjusted R-squared 0.341516 F(3, 14) 3.938962 P-value(F) 0.031363
Log-likelihood -49.66786 Akaike criterion 107.3357 Schwarz criterion 110.8972 Hannan-Quinn 107.8268
JHM ̀ 39)*%(/9/!/9:0/*2%7*13,3,7/*!O/*!%1S!(1.39!1*!(3##3(!(3#!S19/#01*9<E#7)Q!S19/#2E#.%2UT#=/!+7!71,73%2#T.(%!%/S($S3%!8!Ka!S8,/9/!)PP%/2,/9/!71,73%#139,3!$!P*E%1,()SQ!S1(,/!S19!#$./,3!lgm!~!NT9)9!7T7,>!
Model 12: OLS, using observations 1-18
Dependent variable: pt36RL
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
!
aH!
const 4.12417 3.18934 1.2931 0.21690 pimR 0.505464 0.207726 2.4333 0.02896 ** popR -0.20637 0.20071 -1.0282 0.32129 erR 0.266784 0.207676 1.2846 0.21978
Mean dependent var 9.500000 S.D. dependent var 5.338539 Sum squared resid 263.4736 S.E. of regression 4.338150
R-squared 0.456195 Adjusted R-squared 0.339665 F(3, 14) 3.914839 P-value(F) 0.031944
Log-likelihood -49.69313 Akaike criterion 107.3863 Schwarz criterion 110.9477 Hannan-Quinn 107.8773
!
!
!
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