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Transcript of MRF Result Updated
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8/3/2019 MRF Result Updated
1/13
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E Sept. (` cr) 1QSY12 1QSY11 % chg (yoy) 4QSY11 % chg (qoq)Net sales 2,875 2,167 32.7 2,620 9.8EBITDA 258 243 5.9 181 42.6
EBITDA margin (%) 9.0 11.2 (226)bp 6.9 206bp
Reported PAT 113 103 9.7 395 (71.4)Source: Company, Angel Research
MRF reported revenue growth of 32.7% yoy to `2,875cr during 1QSY2012. The
companys EBITDA margin contracted by 226bp yoy to 9.0% from 11.2% in
1QSY2011 on account of increased raw-material cost on the back of higherrubber prices. The company reported net profit growth of 9.7% yoy to `113cr in
1QSY2012 as compared to`103cr in 1QSY2011.
Increasing demand and radialization to improve future prospects for MRF:Growing demand in the tyre industry is expected to give a momentum to the
companys revenue going forward, since MRF is a market leader in the Indian tyre
market. Moreover, we expect the companys EBITDA margin to expand due to an
industry shift to radialization across all tyre segments. Also, rubber prices have
declined by ~31% from`243/kg in April 2011 to `185/kg as on February 20,
2012 this would further lead to margin expansion. Thus, we expect EBITDA
margin to expand by 186bp over SY2011-13E, from 8.3% in SY2011 to 10.1% inSY2013E.
Outlook and valuation: We expect MRFs revenue to post an 18.6% CAGR overSY2011-13E, aided by a conservative 8.5% CAGR volume growth and a ~7.5%
increase in realization over the same period. However, adjusted net profit is
expected to witness a CAGR of 25% over SY2011-13E to`534cr. At`9,407, MRF
is trading at PE of 7.5x its SY2013E earnings. We maintain our Buyrecommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `11,343, based on atarget P/E of 9.0x for SY2013E earnings.Key financials
Y/E Sept. (` cr) SY2010 SY2011 SY2012E SY2013ENet Sales 7,453 9,743 11,883 13,710% chg 31.6 30.7 22.0 15.4
Net Profit 348 343 456 534% chg 39.7 0.0 33.1 17.2
EBITDA (%) 11.0 8.3 9.6 10.1
EPS (`) 820 808 1,076 1,260P/E (x) 11.5 11.6 8.7 7.5
P/BV (x) 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.2
RoE (%) 22.8 14.9 16.5 17.3
RoIC (%) 28.0 16.0 20.3 18.2
EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.4 8.3 5.8 5.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP `9,407
Target Price `11,343
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 27.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 12.0
FII / NRIs / OCBs 26.2
Indian Public / Others 34.8
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 13.0 (0.8) 105.7
MRF 45.2 61.6 471.6
Beta 0.7
Automobile
Market Cap (`cr) 3,988
52 Week High / Low 10,005 / 5,527
Avg. Daily Volume 4,727
Face Value (`) 10
BSE Sensex 18,145
Nifty 5,505Reuters Code MRF.BO
MRF IN
Shareen Batatawala+91- 22- 3935 7800 Ext: 6849
MRFPerformance Highlights
Company Update | Automobile
February 22, 2012
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February 22, 2012 2
Exhibit 1:1QSY2012 performanceY/E Sept. (` cr) 1QSY12 1QSY11 yoy chg (%) 4QSY11 qoq chg (%) SY11 SY10 % chgNet Sales 2,875 2,167 32.7 2620 9.8 9,743 7,453 30.7Net raw material 2,110 1,509 39.8 1,921 9.8 7,107 5,015 41.7(% of Sales) 73.4 69.6 73.3 72.9 67.3
Staff Costs 118 100 17.9 120 (1.8) 447 371 20.3
(% of Sales) 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0
Other Expenses 390 315 24.0 398 (1.8) 1385 1249 10.8
(% of Sales) 13.6 14.5 15.2 14.2 16.8
Total Expenditure 2,618 1,924 36.1 2,439 7.3 8,938 6,636 34.7Operating Profit 258 243 5.9 181 42.6 805 817 (1.4)OPM 9.0 11.2 6.9 8.3 11.0
Interest 32 21 52.1 27 19.2 93 63 47.4
Depreciation 65 76 (14.5) 68 (5.2) 248 261 (5.0)
Other Income 3.9 4.8 (17.3) 2.7 47.2 25 42 (39.7)
PBT 165 151 9.0 88 86.8 489 535 (8.5)(% of Sales) 5.7 7.0 3.4 5.0 7.2
Tax 52 48 7.6 177 (70.7) 274 181 51.9
(% of PBT) 31.5 31.9 201.1 56.0 33.8
Extraordinary income (484.1) 404.2 0.0
Reported PAT 113 103 9.7 (573) (119.7) 619 354 74.9PATM 3.9 4.7 (21.9) 6.4 4.8
Equity capital (cr) 4 4 4 4 4
EPS (`) 266.2 242.7 9.7 (1,352) (119.7) 1,461 835.2 74.9Source: Company, Angel Research
Stable rubber price + Better realization = Normalized OPM
During 1QSY2012, MRF reported a 32.7% yoy increase in its revenue, from
`2,167cr in 1QSY2011 to `2,875cr in 1QSY2012, on the back of increased
realization. Furthermore, the companys EBITDA margin expanded by 206bp on a
sequential basis to 9.0% from 6.9% in 4QSY2011 on account of a ~31% decline
in rubber prices from April 2011 to February 2012. Net profit increased by 9.7%
yoy to`113cr in 1QSY2012 from`103cr in 1QSY2011.
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February 22, 2012 3
Investment rationale
Indian tyre industry Demand, a growth driver
The Indian tyre industry has a size of`30,000cr (as of September 2011), of whichexports contribute `3600cr. The industry is classified into commercial vehicle tyres
(71%) and passenger vehicle tyres (22%). Commercial vehicle tyres include
medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV, 55%), light commercial vehicles
(LCV, 8%) and tractors (8%). Passenger vehicle tyres include passenger cars and
MUVs (12%), motorcycles (7%) and scooters (3%).
The three major segments of the tyre industry are original equipment (OE, 26%),
replacement (63%) and exports (11%). The performance of the industry is
influenced by the replacement segment due to a larger share of truck tyres (71%)
in the product mix.
The industry is a raw-material intensive industry, with raw material constituting
about 66% of sales turnover and 70% of operational cost.
Exhibit 2:Tyre industry statisticsFY2011Current capacity (MT/day) 6,429
Current capacity (MT/year) 2,262,857
Current sales (`cr) 59,507
Revenue per MT (`) 262,972
Investment per TPD@ (`cr) 6.1
FY201114ECAGR for volume sales 9%
Total capacity by FY2014E (MT) 2,930,466
Capacity added (MT) 667,608
Total investment (`cr) 11,569
Debt (`cr) 5,785
Equity (`cr) 7,231
Net profit in FY2011E (`cr) 950
Net profit in FY2014E (`cr) 2,410
Market capitalisation* (`cr) 9,348
PE for FY2014E (x) 3.9
Source: Angel Research; Note: Industry includes Apollo Tyres, MRF, Goodyear India, JK Tyre
and CEAT, @TPD stands for tonne per day, *As on February 22,2012
The current capacity of the tyre industry in India is ~22.6lakh MTPA with an
assumption of 352 working days, thus leading to revenue per MT of `2.6lakh.
Assuming a 9% CAGR for the next three years, the capacity is expected to increase
by ~6.7lakh tonnes to ~29.3lakh tonnes in FY2014E. Currently, investment for
expansion of one TPD is`6.1cr, of which`5cr is capex requirement and`1.1cr is
working capital requirement. Hence, the total investment required for the next
three years is `11,569cr. With the assumption of 1:1 debt-equity ratio and 20%
dividend payout for the next three years, net profit for FY2014E is expected tostand at`2,410cr, resulting in PE of 3.9x its earnings.
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February 22, 2012 4
Radialization to drive profitability in the long term
Radialization in the commercial tyre segment is 1518% compared to 98% in the
passenger vehicle tyre segment. Radial tyres are priced 20-25% higher than cross-
ply tyres. Capital expenditure required for radialization is expected to reduce
profitability in the short term. However, in the long term, we expect EBITDA
margins to expand.
Exhibit 3:DuPont analysis of cross-ply tyres vs. radial tyres` cr per TPD Cross-ply RadialInvestment per tonne 2.0 5.0
(less) Accumulated depreciation 1.0 -
Net investment per tonne 1.0 5.0
Working capital per tonne 0.9 1.1
Total investment 1.9 6.1
Sales 4.6 5.5
Expenses 4.2 4.4
Operating profit 0.4 1.1
Depreciation 0.1 0.2
Interest cost 0.1 0.3
PBT 0.2 0.6
Tax 0.1 0.2
PAT 0.1 0.4
OPM (%) 9.0 20.6
RoE (%) 13.6 13.6
RoCE (%) 15.8 15.8
Source: Angel Research
Manufacturing of radial tyres is far more capital intensive than cross-ply tyres as
investment per TPD for radial is almost 3.2x of cross-ply at `6.1cr. Radial tyres are
priced ~20% higher than cross-ply tyres.
Taking into account the differences in capital requirements and the consequent
impact on asset turnover, interest costs and depreciation, to generate similar RoCEand RoE, tyre companies would need to earn EBITDA margin of ~21% as
compared to about 9% being earned on cross-ply tyres. This assumption also
implies a 5% higher operating expense per TPD in absolute terms for radials.
Hence, we expect margins to increase in the long term, thus leading to a 25%
CAGR in net profit over SY2011-13E.
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Financial performance
Exhibit 4:Key assumptionsSY2012E SY2013E
Change in tyre realization 6.0 5.0
Change in rubber price - 5.0
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 5:Change in estimatesY/E Sept. Earlier estimates Revised estimates % chg
SY2012E SY2013E SY2012E SY2013E SY2012E SY2013ENet sales (` cr) 11,368 12,685 11,883 13,710 4.5 8.1OPM (%) 8.5 9.3 9.6 10.1 116bp 86bp
EPS (`) 972 1,206 1,076 1,260 10.7 4.5Source: Angel Research
Improved tyre realization to help post better revenue
We expect MRF to post a revenue CAGR of 18.6% over SY2011-13E, from
`9,743cr in SY2011 to `13,710cr in SY2013E, on the back of improved tyre
realization.
Exhibit 6:Revenue and revenue growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
SY2008 SY2009 SY2010 SY2011E SY2012E SY2013E
(%)
(`cr)
Revenue (LHS) Revenue growth (RHS)
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Expansion in EBITDA margin to improve profits
We expect the companys EBITDA margin to improve by 186bp over SY2011-13E,
on account of stable rubber prices. Even though prices of other raw materials are
witnessing an uptrend, their impact on the companys EBITDA margin is minimal,
as rubber constitutes 66% of total raw-material cost. Change in the method of
depreciation to straight line has led to lower depreciation cost (percent of gross
block), which would add to profitability. Hence, we expect net profit to post a 25%
CAGR over SY2011-13E.
Exhibit 7:EBITDA margin to bounce back
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8:PAT and PAT growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and valuation
We have revised our revenue and earnings estimates upwards due to increased
prices of tyres and stabilizing rubber prices. At current levels, the stock is trading at
PE of 7.5x SY2013E and P/B of 1.2x for SY2013E. We maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `11,343, based on a
target P/E of 9.0x for SY2013E.
Exhibit 9:One-year forward P/E
Source: Company, Angel Research
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
SY2008 SY2009 SY2010 SY2011E SY2012E SY2013E
(%)
(`cr)
EBIT DA (LHS ) EBITD A margin (RH S)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
SY2008 SY2009 SY2010 SY2011E SY2012E SY2013E
(%)
(`cr
)
PAT (LHS) PAT growth (RHS)
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
(`)
Price 2x 5x 8x 11x
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February 22, 2012 7
Exhibit 10:Relative valuationYear end Sales(` cr) OPM(%) PAT(` cr) EPS(`) ROE(%) P/E(x) P/BV(x) EV/EBITDA(x) EV/Sales(x)
Apollo Tyres FY2013E 13,580 10.2 556 11.0 12.9 7.1 1.2 4.6 0.5MRF SY2013E 13,710 10.1 534 1260.3 17.3 7.5 1.2 5.2 0.5
Source: Company
Risks
Volatile rubber prices: Rubber is the major raw material used in themanufacture of tyres. Rubber price was at a high of `243/kg in April 2011;
however, prices have come down to `185/kg as on February 20, 2012.
Increased volatility in rubber prices would have a direct impact on the
companys EBITDA margin and consequently the profit.
Exhibit 11:Rubber price trend
Source: Rubber Board (*MTD)
(9)
(6)
(3)
0
3
6
9
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Fe
b-1
1
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
*Fe
b-1
2
(%)
(`/kg
)
Rubber price Change in price (%)
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MRF| Company Update
February 22, 2012 8
The company
MRF manufactures rubber products such as tyres, tubes, flaps, tread rubber and
conveyor belts. The company is a market leader in the tyre industry with a ~30%
market share currently.
Exhibit 12:Market share (India)
Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
MRF is also a leader in the passenger car tyre segment with a 20.3% market share
and holds a second position in the MHCV segment with a ~19.5% market share.
Exhibit 13:Product mix (tonnes)
Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Apollo tyres MRF Ltd JK tyres Ceat tyres Goodyear Tyres
MHCV49%Passenger cars
12%
MUV2%
LCV9%
Tractor10%
OTR3% Motorcycle10% Scooter5%
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MRF| Company Update
February 22, 2012 9
Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone)
Y/E Sept. (` cr) SY2008 SY2009 SY2010 SY2011 SY2012E SY2013EGross sales 5,716 6,142 8,080 10,645 12,916 14,902Less: Excise duty 671 478 628 902 1,033 1,192Net Sales 5,045 5,664 7,453 9,743 11,883 13,710
Other operating income - - - - - -
Total operating income 5,045 5,664 7,453 9,743 11,883 13,710% chg 14.8 12.3 31.6 30.7 22.0 15.4
Net Raw Materials 3,458 3,710 5,015 7,107 8,337 9,540
Other Mfg costs 496 505 693 779 1,046 1,206
Personnel 270 311 371 447 570 658
Other 414 457 557 605 784 919
Total Expenditure 4,638 4,981 6,636 8,938 10,738 12,323
EBITDA 406 682 817 805 1,145 1,387% chg (6.4) 67.9 19.7 (1.4) 42.3 21.2
(% of Net Sales) 8.1 12.0 11.0 8.3 9.6 10.1
Depreciation&Amortisation
170 249 261 248 322 418
EBIT 237 433 556 557 823 969% chg (15.6) 82.8 28.4 0.2 47.8 17.7
(% of Net Sales) 4.7 7.6 7.5 5.7 6.9 7.1
Interest & other charges 66 69 63 93 178 214
Other Income 41 34 42 25 36 43
(% of sales) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3
PBT 211 398 535 489 681 798% chg 88.5 34.2 (8.5) 39.1 17.2
Tax 67 145 181 274 225 263
(% of PBT) 31.6 36.5 33.8 56.0 33.0 33.0
PAT (reported) 145 253 354 215 456 534Extraordinary(Expense)/Inc.
6 4 7 (404) - -
ADJ. PAT 139 249 348 619 456 534% chg 79.5 39.7 78.2 (26.4) 17.2
(% of Net Sales) 2.7 4.4 4.7 6.4 3.8 3.9
Basic EPS (`) 326.9 586.7 819.6 808.4 1,075.7 1,260.3Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 326.9 586.7 819.6 808.4 1,075.7 1,260.3% chg 79.5 39.7 (1.4) 33.1 17.2
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Balance Sheet (Standalone)
Y/E Sept. (` cr) SY2008 SY2009 SY2010 SY2011 SY2012E SY2013ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 4 4 4 4 4 4Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 1,117 1,357 1,686 2,294 2,737 3,259
Equity share warrants
Shareholders Funds 1,121 1,361 1,691 2,298 2,741 3,263Minority Interest - - - - - -
Total Loans 1,249 672 1,354 2,285 2,971 3,565
Deferred Tax Liability 10 (12) (15) 142 142 142
Total Liabilities 2,380 2,021 3,030 4,725 5,854 6,970APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 2,423 2,734 3,368 3,832 4,981 6,476
Less: Acc. Depreciation 1,556 1,801 2,039 1,860 2,182 2,601
Net Block 867 934 1,329 1,971 2,799 3,875Capital Work-in-Progress 444 285 498 1,135 908 636
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 69 149 73 73 73 73
Current Assets 1,997 1,388 2,095 3,148 3,927 4,513Cash 102 60 45 57 244 264
Loans & Advances 300 98 127 256 258 297
Inventory 984 650 1,111 1,526 1,830 2,111
Debtors 610 580 811 1,308 1,595 1,841
Current liabilities 996 734 964 1,602 1,853 2,127
Net Current Assets 1,001 654 1,131 1,545 2,074 2,386Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 2,380 2,021 3,030 4,725 5,854 6,970
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February 22, 2012 11
Cash Flow Statement (Standalone)
Y/E Sept. (` cr) SY2008 SY2009 SY2010 SY2011 SY2012E SY2013EProfit before tax 211 398 535 489 681 798
Depreciation 170 249 261 248 322 418Change in Working Capital (113) 305 (492) (403) (342) (293)
Other income 67 40 34 217 (36) (43)
Direct taxes paid (67) (145) (181) (274) (225) (263)
Cash Flow from Operations 269 847 157 277 401 618(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (576) (153) (844) (1,101) (922) (1,222)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments 12 (73) 84 - - -
Other income 41 34 42 25 36 43
Others (43) (41) (68) (35) - -
Cash Flow from Investing (566) (232) (786) (1,111) (887) (1,179)Issue of Equity - - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 414 (577) 682 931 686 594
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (10) (12) (25) (12) (13) (13)
Others (78) (67) (43) (73) - -
Cash Flow from Financing 326 (657) 614 846 673 581Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 29 (42) (15) 12 187 20
Opening Cash balances 73 102 60 45 57 244Closing Cash balances 102 60 45 57 244 264
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Key RatiosY/E Sept. SY2008 SY2009 SY2010 SY2011 SY2012E SY2013EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 28.8 16.0 11.5 11.6 8.7 7.5P/CEPS 12.9 8.0 6.6 6.8 5.1 4.2
P/BV 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3
EV/Sales 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
EV/EBITDA 12.5 6.5 6.4 8.3 5.8 5.2
EV / Total Assets 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.0
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 326.9 586.7 819.6 808.4 1,075.7 1,260.3
EPS (fully diluted) 326.9 586.7 819.6 808.4 1,075.7 1,260.3
Cash EPS 726.7 1,174.7 1,434.6 1,392.4 1,834.9 2,247.4
DPS 23.4 29.2 58.3 25.0 30.0 30.0
Book Value 2,643.4 3,210.9 3,987.5 5,419.3 6,464.9 7,695.3
Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 4.7 7.6 7.5 5.7 6.9 7.1
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 2.8 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.3
ROIC (Post-tax) 9.1 17.9 15.0 11.0 11.9 10.8
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 4.3 4.6 4.1 2.8 4.5 4.4
Leverage (x) 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0
Operating ROE 13.8 22.4 23.0 18.7 19.0 17.2
Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 11.2 19.6 21.9 11.8 15.5 15.1
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 14.7 26.1 28.0 16.0 20.3 18.2
ROE 13.2 20.0 22.8 14.9 16.5 17.3
Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.4
Inventory / Sales (days) 71 42 54 57 57 57
Receivables (days) 44 37 40 49 49 49
Payables (days) 78 54 53 65 63 63
WC (ex-cash) (days) 61 48 41 48 51 53
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0
Net debt to EBITDA 2.7 0.7 1.5 2.7 2.3 2.3
Interest Coverage 3.6 6.3 8.8 6.0 4.6 4.5
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F b 22 2012 13
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
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