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MPAT TE-11Scenario Brief Scenario Brief

22 January 2007

UNCLASSIFIED

•Pacifica Subcontinent: 2,300,000 sq km

•N-S length: 3,100 km; E-W width: 1,400 km

•1,400 km SW of Japan; 2,200 km W of Hawaii

Conflict Region –Pacifica Subcontinent

•Republic of Arcadia

•Dominion of Kuhistan

•Republic of Tierra del Oro

•Kingdom of Sonora

•Republic of Free Mojave

•New country formed out of Kuhistan, Sonora, Tierra del Oro

•Island of Isla del Sol

•Colonial dependency of Iberia

A History of Strife –Six Political Entities

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•Pacifica originally settled by peoples from Northeast Asia, the South Pacific, & finally northern Europe in 8th & 9th century.•Iberian (Europe) explorer “discovers” Pacifica in 1503, and is followed by other European powers who colonize various parts of Pacifica.•African settlers arrive in 18th and 19th century.•By late 19th century, present countries except Mojave are in existence.•Countries reflect multi-ethnic, multi-religious composition of original settlers and later waves of immigrants.

Early History

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•Ethnic strife and other issues result in formation of Free Mojave in 2004, carved out of Kuhistan, Sonora and Tierra del Oro.•Sonora also looses a significant portion of its army which defects to help form the new country.

•Sonora and Tierra del Ora have engaged in conflict in 2005 and 2006, necessitating UN sanctioned intervention.•Arcadia suffered major internal disturbances requiring UN sanctioned intervention.

Early History (con’t.)

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•Complex mountain ranges (Cascades, Rockies) and major river systems (Columbia, Snake) in north; rivers occasionally flood during spring•Basin and range country in south•Temperatures from -30 C in winter to 38 C in summer•Annual precipitation ranges from less than 20 cm to more than 50 cm•Kuhistan is generally arid; water is a major political and social issue

Kuhistan – Geography

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Salt Lake City

Salt Lake City

Provo

St. George

Cedar City

Boise

Spokane

Kuhistan – Major Cities

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•Federated dominion•Head of State is Albion monarch-Queen Charlotte

•Parliamentary democracy•Eight provinces•Capital: Boise•Judicial

•Municipal courts (petty criminal offenses, civil suits)•Courts of first jurisdiction at provincial level; Court of Appeals in Boise; final appeals referred to Albion House of Lords

•Police•Local•Provincial•National (under Ministry of Justice and for criminal matters crossing provincial boundaries.

Kuhistan - Government

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Kuhistan-Military

•General comments•Varied weapons and equipment sources•Poor condition due to economy, lack of continued Soviet and Russian support and the current conflict•Training status described as “fair”•Factions based on ethnic background exist, but no overt tendencies towards disloyalty•Army’s Missile Command, Air Force and Navy fiercely loyal and nationalistic

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•Military Force Structure•Army (75,000)

• Three geographical commands (North, Central, South)• Division-sized unit is core of each command• Centralized Special Forces and Missile Forces Command

•Navy (10,000)• Three geographical commands based in larger cities• Essentially coastal patrol capabilities

•Air Force (10,000)• Fighter, Home Defence, Air Transport Command• Main missions are ground support and transportation

•Force details provided in Force Structure handout

Kuhistan – Military

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•Population: 6,834,000 (68% urban)•Spokane 196,305•Boise (capital) 189,847•Salt Lake City 181,266•Provo 105,170

•Ethnic Breakdown:•European 47%•Mixed European/Norlander 27•Mestizo 11•Norlander 6•African 4•Other 5

Kuhistan – Population

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•Religion•Christian (Protestant) 47%•New Zionist 23•Christian (Catholic) 22•Muslim 3•Other 5

•Language•English (official language), primarily•Spanish, German, various indigenous languages

Kuhistan – Religion/Language

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•Economy•GNP: US $45 billion / US $6,600 per capita•Agriculture (heavy reliance on irrigation)

• Fruits, wheat, potatoes, cattle, poultry

•Timber, wood products, paper•Coal•Mining (gold, silver, lead)•Steel (small)•Chemical industry (fledging and with Russian assistance)•Nuclear power generation (Russian assistance)

•Economy is essentially stagnant

Kuhistan – Economy

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•Railroads: connect major cities: Salt Lake City, Pocatello, Boise, Spokane•Highways: extensive inter-province system linking major cities and cities in rest of Pacifica•Waterways: Columbia and lower Willamette accommodate ocean-going vessels•Commercial Air Facilities: Salt Lake City is main hub. Spokane and Boise have major facilities•Ports: Major ports include Idaho Falls, Pocatello, Salt Lake City

Kuhistan – Transportation/Infrastructure

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•Received significant aid and assistance from Soviet Union•Member of the “Non-aligned Movement” during Cold War•Soviet Union trained, equipped military and police, financed economic growth•Collapse of Soviet Union in 1991 and Asian Financial crisis had huge negative impact on Kuhistan economy.•Kuhistan economy deteriorated:

•Major job losses, homelessness, shanty towns•Increased ethnic tensions, especially against Mestizo population

•Make shift Internally Displaced Persons camps

Kuhistan – Post-World War II

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•Russia attempts to regain former Soviet Union influence in Pacifica:•Provides technical and financial support for development of Kuhistan nuclear energy capability

•Provides support for chemical industry development

•Rise of dissident groups:•“Mestizo Political Action-Kuhistan” (MPAK), and umbrella organization for Mestizo groups-advocate for better education, “affirmative action” in hiring, and other economic support measures.

•MPAK becomes “radicalized”, demonstrations and unrest increase, as there is little progress for the Mestizo community

•“Kuhistan Freedom Corps” (KFC) forms from radical elements of MPAK, is a terrorist organization which engages both police and military forces, and has ties to other similar organizations in Pacifica.

Kuhistan – Post-World War II

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•Terrain dominated by Sonora Desert•Average annual precipitation 30 cm•Temperatures from 10 C in winter to 38 C in summer•Sonora is generally arid; water is a major political and social issue

Sonora – Geography

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Albuquerque

Phoenix

TUCSON

El Paso

Sonora – Major Cities

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•Constitutional monarchy•Head of State is the King

•Two provinces•Chief of Government is Prime Minister, appointed by the King•Provincial governors are appointed by the King•Provinces further divided into districts

•Capital: Phoenix•Judicial

•Each district has courts of first jurisdiction•Appeals court at provincial level•National supreme court in Phoenix

•Police•National police force under Ministry of Interior•Organized along military lines (rank structure)•Province, district and municipal levels of command

Sonora – Government

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•General comments•Sonora has the largest military in Pacifica•Most equipment and weapons systems are from the US and Europe

•Equipment is in generally fair condition due to the recent conflict with Tierra del Oro

•Training status described as “fair”•Ethnic and political distrust has eroded the professionalism of the military• The Army has a disproportionate percentage of Mestizos

who are dissatisfied with the ruling elite• Former First Corps (one third of ground forces) defected

and became the core of the newly independent Free Mojave (largely Mestizo country)

• Loyalty of virtually all generals not related or well connected to the royal family is suspect

Sonora – Military

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•Military Force Structure•Army (100,000)

• Three corps form the bulk of the Army forces • Division-sized unit is core of each command• Centralized Special Operations, Coastal Defense and Missile Commands

•Navy (25,000)• Three geographical commands based in larger cities• Largely coastal patrol capabilities with minimal blue water capabilities

•Air Force (35,000)• Fighter, Air Defence, Air Transportation Command

•Force details provided in Force Structure handout

Sonora – Military

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•Population: 7,453,000 (63% urban)•Phoenix (capital) 1,371,960•El Paso 577,415•Tucson 503,151•Albuquerque 463,874

•Ethnic Breakdown:•Mestizo 37•Creole 31•Mohajerani 16•Lahui Kanaka 12•Other 4

Sonora – Population

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•Religion•Christian (Catholic) 69%•Muslim 16•Indigenous 12•Other 3

•Language•French (official language and spoken by the elite)•Spanish (spoken by majority)

Sonora – Religion/Language

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•Economy•GNP US $78 billion / US $11,100 per capita

•Industrial production• Electronics, computers, consumer durables (appliances)

•Mining

•Gas, Oil, Coal production

•Agriculture (constrained by limited water resources)• Cotton, citrus fruits, cattle, sheep

•Considerable resources and potential for rapid growth

Sonora – Economy

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•Transportation and Infrastructure•Railroads: connect major cities: Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso, Albuquerque

•Highways: extensive inter-province system linking major cities and cities in rest of Pacifica

•Waterways: no navigable rivers

•Commercial Air Facilities: Phoenix is main hub. Tucson, Albuquerque and El Paso have major facilities

•Ports: Major ports include Albuquerque, El Paso and Tucson

Sonora –Transportation / Infrastructure

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•Economy in total shambles after WW II (Sonora supported Axis powers and was devastated by Allies)•Massive aid provided by U.S. and other European countries revitalized the economy•Mining, agriculture revitalized•Industrial sector (destroyed in WW II) rebuilt•U.S. provides weapons and training for armed forces, to counter growing post WW II influence in Pacifica•Oil industry increased dramatically:

•Discovery of large untapped reserve in northern section of country bordering Kuhistan

•BUSHOCO, Sonora national oil company, commences massive exploitation of reserves

Sonora – Post-World War II

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Road to Crisis

MPAT TE-11 Scenario

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2004•Kuhistan economy in bad shape. International aid agencies provide some support•Continued perceived prejudice against Mestizos in jobs and housing•MPAK activities increase•Refugees (Ethnic European/Norlanders) flee new state of Free Mojave •Refugee camps established in St. George and Cedar City

•Clashes increase between ethnic Europeans, Mestizos•Shanty towns spring up in Boise, Salt Lake City, Spokane

Road to Crisis

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2005 (January-March)•Sonora extends productive oil fields closer to Kuhistan; Kuhistan claims Sonora is “slant drilling” into its reserves•Kuhistan accelerates nuclearization efforts

•Completes 1,000 MW light water reactor (with Russian assistance) 10 km south of Salt Lake City

•International Atomic energy Agency (IAEA) finds no irregularities

•Sonora claims Kuhistan nuclear program is cover for nuclear weapons development; protests to UN Security Council

•MPAK and KFC link with other groups in Free Mojave and agitate to annex Mestizo portion of Kuhistan to Free Mojave

Road to Crisis

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2005 (April-June)•Mestizo guerillas in Kuhistan and Sonora bomb public buildings, shopping malls. MPAK denies responsibility•Kuhistan military tasked to provide law and order support•Boise and Spokane Rivers overflow

•Thousands homeless•IDP camps established in Boise and Nampa•IDP camp established in Spokane in large park near river and close to employment opportunities

Road to Crisis

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2005 (July-September)•Kuhistan moves forces closer to Sonoran border, claiming to push Sonora

guerillas back to Sonora•Sonora counters, moves forces to border•Sonora accuses Kuhistan of developing weapons in its phosgene plant;

Kuhistan denies charges, claims phosgene is important compound for its growing chemical industry

•Tensions between Kuhistan and Sonora increase• Cross-border clashes between Kuihistan and Sonora forces• Cedar City, St. George (Kuhistan) suffer damage• Oil fields in Sonora suffer damage• UN agency staff relocate to Salt Lake City and Boise• International aid severely curtailed

•UN Secretary General implores both countries pull back forces from border•UN Security Council passes UNSC Resolution 1492 (6 September 2005)

condemning actions of both countries•Kuhistan and Sonora pull back forces at least 5 km from borders, but

maintain sizable forces nearby.

Road to Crisis

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2005 (October-December)•Spokane and Boise establish additional IDP camps for homeless caused by earlier flood.•IDP camp established outside of Salt Lake City to accommodate economically disadvantaged and citizens who earlier fled from the border clashes•Kuhistan begins installing plutonium processing facility south of existing reactor•Sonora lodges strong protest in UN•Kuhistan claims it wants to minimize nuclear waste

Road to Crisis

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2006 (January-March)•Kuhistan economy continues to struggle•Sonora oil fields sabotaged

•Sonora claims Kuhistan plans to destroy Sonora oil fields and use nuclear weapons

2006 (April)•Kuhistan Army deserter calls press conference in Seattle, Arcadia and claims:•He was part of security detail for secret underground uranium enrichment facility in Salt Lake City

•Underground location chosen to prevent Sonora bombing •Centrifuges acquired form Dr A.Q. Khan’s illegal weapons network•Deserter offers convincing proof of facility

•IAEA demands to inspect alleged location; Kuhistan refuses

Road to Crisis

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2006 (May)•Sonora claims Kuhistan intends to use phosgene chemicals against its populace•15 May: Sonora cites concerns about oil field incursions, use of phosgene chemicals, and nuclear threat and takes pre-emptive action against Kuhistan•Sonora forces invade Kuhistan•Main thrust north-northeast along Highway 15•Supporting thrust along coast•Navy initiates supporting attack against Salt Lake City

•UN staff, international relief agencies relocated from Salt Lake City to Boise or returned home•Salt Lake City IDP camp receives heavy influx of IDPs fleeing fighting in southern Kuhistan

Road to Crisis

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2006 (July)•After 2 ½ months of heavy fighting, both countries suffer heavy losses and

damage• St. George, Cedar City, Provo suffer major infrastructure damage• Sonora ground forces push to within 15 km of Provo• Sonora Navy effort is ineffectual; Navy suffers major losses• Kuhistan’s response to invasion includes massive missile attacks against major cities

and ports in Sonora• Segments of international community condemn missile attacks as excessive and

needlessly targeting civilian population centers

•Humanitarian crisis in Kuhistan worsens as international aid agencies continue their pullout

2006 (August)•UNSC Resolution 1512 (8 August 2006):

• Condemns both parties• Demands cessation of hostilities• Demands Sonora pull back its forces from Kuhistan• Demands that Kuhistan cease its missile attacks

Road to Crisis

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2006 (September)•Fighting continues•International efforts to settle conflict intensify

•Singapore provides leadership; conflict settlement important to its economic and security interests in region

•Kuhistan, Sonora unwilling to comply with UN resolutions, however:•Kuhistan limits missile attacks to areas occupied by Sonora forces (including St. George and Cedar City)

•Sonora adopts aggressive “defensive posture” in Sonoran-occupied Kuhistani territory

2006 (October)•Intense international efforts continue•International community threaten sanctions, withholding aid•Kuhistan agrees to cease hostile activities but only if a robust multinational force (MNF) pushes Sonora forces out of Kuhistan territory

Road to Crisis

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2006 (October-continued)•Sonora agrees to cease hostile activities and begin withdrawal but only if the MNF neutralizes the missile attacks and protects Sonoran oil fields

•UN Security Council passes UNSC Resolution 1569 (10 October 2006) calling for a strong MNF to separate the belligerents, support international efforts to restore peace to the region and help rebuild Kuhistan. MNF mandate includes:•Separate Kuhistan and Sonora forces•Ensure Sonora forces leave Kuhistan•Prevent further missile attacks by Kuhistan•Enforce border integrity•Establish security in the country•Support HA efforts•Support other components of the UN mandate•Transition to a follow on PKF six months after deployment of MNF

Road to Crisis

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2006 (November-December)•Singapore starts to build the MNF

2007 (January)•Kuhistan and Sonora have basically ceased major hostile actions, but sporadic fighting continues•Banditry and guerrilla operations continue to plague Kuhistan•Humanitarian aid agencies start sending assessment teams back to Kuhistan•SAF Warning Order issued2007 (February)•Refugee and IDP camps are as follows:

Road to Crisis

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2007 (February)

•Refugee and IDP camps are as follows:

•MNF Planners deploy to Singapore

Refugee Camps Camp PopulationSt George 30000Cedar City 20000 Total Refugee 50000IDP CampsBoise 35000Boise River 15000Nampa 20000Salt Lake City 30000Spokane 15000Spokane River 1 20000Spokane River 2 25000 Total IDP 160000

Road to Crisis