Moving Toward Integration?
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Moving Toward Integration? Net Migration by Age and Race/Ethnic Segregation across the Rural-Urban Continuum Richelle Winkler, Dept of Social Sciences, Michigan Tech Univ Ken Johnson, Carsey Institute, Univ of New Hampshire
Transcript of Moving Toward Integration?
Moving Toward Integration?
Net Migration by Age and Race/Ethnic Segregationacross the Rural-Urban Continuum
Richelle Winkler, Dept of Social Sciences, Michigan Tech Univ
Ken Johnson, Carsey Institute, Univ of New Hampshire
Research Questions
Are migration patterns making US counties more or less diverse? To what extent has county-level net migration influenced levels
of race/ethnic segregation in the 1990s and 2000s?
How does this vary by age?
How does it vary across space and along rural-urban continuum?
Data: County-Level Net Migration Estimates
Balance of in-migration minus out-migration
County-level by age, sex, race, & Hispanic-origin
Robust- almost free of error
Available at www.netmigration.wisc.edu
Limitations No flows or streams
1950’s Bowles, et al.1960’s Bowles, et al.1970’s White, et al.1980’s Fuguitt, et al.1990’s Voss, et al.2000’s Winkler, et al.
Rural-Urban Continuum
Adjusted Beale Codes (RUC 2013 published by USDA)
Central City (n=68): city pop >250K in 2010
Large Metro Fringe (n=717): in metro area >250K, but not central city.
Small Metro (n=350): county in metro area <250K
Adjacent Nonmetro (n=1,020)
Non-Adjacent Small City (n=523): Nonmetro county with urban pop >2,500
Remote Rural (n=417): Non-adjacent and urban pop<2,500
-20
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Median Net Migration Rates by Age & Race/EthnicityCentral Cities
Black 2000s
Hispanic 2000s
White 2000s
-40
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0
20
40
60
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Median Net Migration Rates by Age & Race/EthnicityLarge Metro Fringe
Black 2000s
Hispanic 2000s
White 2000s
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100
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Median Net Migration Rates by Age & Race/EthnicitySmall Metros
Black 2000s
Hispanic 2000s
White 2000s
-40
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20
40
60
80
100
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Median Net Migration Rates by Age & Race/EthnicityAdjacent Nonmets
Black 2000s
Hispanic 2000s
White 2000s
-40
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0
20
40
60
80
100
Med
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Median Net Migration Rates by Age & Race/EthnicityNonadjacent Small Cities
Black 2000s
Hispanic 2000s
White 2000s
-60
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120
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Median Net Migration Rates by Age & Race/EthnicityRemote Rural
Black 2000s
Hispanic 2000s
White 2000s
Measuring & Analyzing Segregation
Entropy Index and Theils H measure diversity/segregation Multi-group (Black, White, Hispanic, Other)
Multi-level (county, RUC, region)
Compare E and H in Expected and Observedpopulations
Difference is change in segregation due to net mig
Robust- almost free of error
Explore spatial patterns
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
1990s 2000s
Multigroup County Level Segregation Index (H)
Starting Pop
Expected End
Observed End
Change due to Net Mig
-0.07
-0.06
-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Change in Multigroup Theils H by 5- Year Age Group, 2000-2010
Change in H due to NM
Change in H
-0.04
-0.035
-0.03
-0.025
-0.02
-0.015
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
Total Population Under age 20 Age 20-39 Age 40 to 59 Age 60 plus
Change in Multi-level H due to Net Migration, 2000-2010
Between Counties
Between RUCs
Between Regions
Conclusions
Net migration decreasing race/ethnic segregation
Particularly true under age 40
Over age 60 patterns balkanizing
Movements up and down the RUC critical to process
Spatial variation:
Midwest and Northeast seeing most redistribution
Metro fringe of some NE and MW major Mets and Atlanta driving process
Balkanization in some parts of South, Southwest, and Appalachia
Table 3: OLS Model Predicting Change in Diversity due to Net Migration, 2000-2010
β β
Diversity (2000) -0.0654 * Rental units 0.0396 *
Population 2010 0.0234 Built since 2000 -0.0552 *
change00_10 0.0789 * Built before 1940 0.0197 *
Prison Population 0.0965 * Median rent 0.5277 *
Over age 60 -0.0821 * Median Value -0.0096 *
Northeast -0.3044 Median HH Income 0.0356 *
South 0.3915 College 0.0595 *
West -0.4349 Income Inequality -2.3043 *
City -0.0539
Suburb 0.4076
Adjacent 0.0425
Small City 0.4775
Rural 1.0638 *
ADJ R-Squared 0.2642 AIC 15450
* p< 0.01 df 22
NOTE: Positive values indicate increase in diversity due to net migration
Table 1: County-Level Segregation Due to Net Migration for Multigroup and Dual Groups by Age, 1990-2010
1990 2000 2010 2000 2010 1990s 2000s 1990s 2000s
Multigroup 22.6 21.3 19.6 23.0 21.3 -1.7 -1.7 0.4 0.0
Black-White 20.9 21.1 20.2 21.3 21.4 -0.1 -1.2 0.4 0.2
Hispanic-White 29.3 27.3 24.7 30.1 27.2 -2.8 -2.5 0.8 -0.1
Black-Hispanic 37.5 33.7 29.5 37.7 33.0 -4.0 -3.6 0.2 -0.6
Multigroup 25.5 23.6 20.8 25.6 22.9 -2.0 -2.0 0.1 -0.7
Black-White 24.2 23.8 21.8 24.1 23.3 -0.3 -1.5 -0.1 -0.5
Hispanic-White 33.3 30.3 26.5 33.4 28.9 -3.1 -2.3 0.1 -1.5
Black-Hispanic 39.8 35.1 29.9 39.6 33.0 -4.4 -3.1 -0.2 -2.1
Multigroup 21.4 20.2 18.1 23.3 21.8 -3.1 -3.6 1.9 1.6
Black-White 19.7 19.9 18.7 21.2 21.7 -1.3 -3.1 1.5 1.8
Hispanic-White 28.6 26.5 23.6 31.4 28.4 -4.9 -4.9 2.8 1.9
Black-Hispanic 35.2 31.2 26.8 37.5 32.5 -6.3 -5.7 2.3 1.3
Multigroup 22.1 21.3 20.5 21.4 20.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6
Black-White 20.9 21.4 21.1 20.4 20.7 1.0 0.4 -0.5 -0.7
Hispanic-White 28.8 27.5 26.2 28.0 27.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5
Black-Hispanic 36.5 34.6 31.2 35.6 36.4 -1.0 -5.2 -0.9 1.8
Multigroup 24.1 23.7 22.7 22.7 22.1 1.0 0.6 -1.4 -1.6
Black-White 21.1 21.5 21.7 20.3 21.2 1.2 0.5 -0.8 -0.3
Hispanic-White 28.6 29.8 28.4 28.0 28.2 1.9 0.3 -0.7 -1.6
Black-Hispanic 43.0 40.0 36.8 38.7 33.0 1.3 3.7 -4.3 -7.0
Age 20 to 39
Age 40 to 59
over Age 60
Observed Expected (No NM) Change due to NM Change due to Natural Processes
Total Population
under Age 20
Expected 2010 Observed 2010Difference due to
Net Migration
Total H 21.32 19.6 -1.72
Between Regions 4.81 4.43 -0.38
Across RUC 8.81 8.08 -0.73
Between counties 7.7 7.09 -0.61
Total H 22.85 20.84 -2.01
Between Regions 5.27 4.9 -0.37
Across RUC 9.44 8.64 -0.8
Between counties 8.14 7.3 -0.84
Total H 21.75 18.13 -3.62
Between Regions 5.07 4.25 -0.82
Across RUC 9.01 7.19 -1.82
Between counties 7.67 6.69 -0.98
Total H 20.71 20.49 -0.22
Between Regions 4.57 4.5 -0.07
Across RUC 8.3 8.36 0.06
Between counties 7.84 7.63 -0.21
Total H 22.07 22.66 0.59
Between Regions 4.19 4.36 0.17
Across RUC 8.84 9.19 0.35
Between counties 9.04 9.11 0.07
Table 2: Geographic Decomposition of Change in Multigroup Segregation due to Net
Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Total Population
Under Age 20
Age 20-39
Age 40-59
Age 60 plus
