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January 2006

MOVES Moves Me...MOVES Moves Me...

Christopher A StockVice President Marketing and Business Development

Environmental Systems Products11 Kripe Road

East Granby, CT 06026

To Think About

the Future of I/M

To Think About

the Future of I/M

With Thanks To:

- Michael Savonis (FWHA)

- John Koupal, Ed Nam, Bob Giannelli,

Chad Bailey and Ed Glover (OTAQ)

With Thanks To:

- Michael Savonis (FWHA)

- John Koupal, Ed Nam, Bob Giannelli,

Chad Bailey and Ed Glover (OTAQ)

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January 2006

• EPA Office of Transportation Air Quality (OTAQ) is developing a new modeling system called the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES).

• MOVES is a new set of modeling tools for the estimation of emissions produced by both on-road, off-road and non-road mobile sources.

• MOVES will encompass all pollutants including [HC], Carbon Monoxide [CO], oxides of nitrogen [NOx], particulate matter [PM], air toxics, and greenhouse gases.

• It will model all pollution from all mobile sources at the levels of resolution needed for the diverse applications of the system.

EPA MOVES ModelEPA MOVES Model

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January 2006

EPA MOVES ModelEPA MOVES Model

• When fully implemented in 2008, MOVES will serve as the replacement for the MOBILE 6 model and for the non-road models that are currently being used by jurisdictions.

• The new system will not necessarily be a single piece of software but instead will encompass all necessary tools, algorithms, and underlying data for its use.

• It will support guidance necessary for use in all official analyses for regulatory development, compliance with statutory requirements, and national/regional emissions inventory projections.

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January 2006 2002 Development

• Multiscale• mOtor• Vehicle & equipment• Emission• System

2000 NRC Report

Suggested NGM

• Next

• Generation

• Model

Why MOVES?Why MOVES?

2004 Draft Highway

• MOtor

• Vehicle

• Emission

• Simulator

2006 MOVES Highway Replaces MOBILE 6

• Extensive Review

• Development of Draft NonRoad MOVES portion of the model

2008 Final MOVES

• Include Highway and NonRoad

• Use in Regulatory Environment

2007 MOVES Non Road

• NonRoad and Aircraft Locomotives and Marine Components

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January 2006

MOVESMOVES

• MOVES was developed from the ground up based on needs of model users and recommendations to improve these models.

• MOVES implements a number of “firsts”– Modeling energy consumption, N2O and CH4 explicitly;– Employing a “modal” emission rate approach as a prelude

to finer-scale modeling;– Modeling a broad array of advanced technology vehicles.

• Other changes from MOBILE are– Use of a graphical user interface (GUI)– Relational database to store underlying data– Calculation of total energy and emission inventories rather

than simply calculating per-mile emission factors.

• Features will be expanded in development of MOVES over the next few years.

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January 2006

MOVESMOVES

• MOVES can be used to estimate inventories and projections through 2050 at the county level for energy consumption, nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) from highway vehicles.

• Includes a full suite of default data to estimate results for the entire U.S.

• Interfaces with Argonne Laboratory’s Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy uses in Transportation (GREET) to include “well-to-pump” estimates of energy consumption and emissions.

• Utilizes PERE (Physical Emission Rate Estimation)

• Future versions of MOVES are planned to estimate non-highway mobile source emissions, estimate criteria pollutant emissions, and operate at smaller scales.

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January 2006

Development and ImplementationDevelopment and Implementation

• 2000 – Initiate studies (Data Gathering)

• 2002 – MOVES 2002 (Model Development)

• 2004 – MOVES 2004 (Draft Highway Model)

• 2005 – MOVES 2005 (Comment period)

• 2006 – MOVES 2006 (Highway/Draft Non-Road)

• 2007 – MOVES 2007 (MOVES replaces Mobile Model)

• 2008 – MOVES 2008 (Replaces All Models)

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January 2006

Why MOVES?Why MOVES?

• Develop a comprehensive mobile source emissions model that is data driven

• Based on multi-scale analysis – Macroscale Inventories (EPA Reports,

SIPs)– Mesoscale Inventories (SIPs, Conformity)– Microscale Analyses (e.g. hot spot / project

level) • Transportation/AQ model linkage• Policy evaluation• Model validation and uncertainty• Model updates and expansion

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January 2006

Why MOVES?Why MOVES?

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January 2006

Traditional View of Infrastructure

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January 2006

Global Mobile Source InfrastructureGlobal Mobile Source Infrastructure

METRA Commuter Rail CTA (the “EL”) and Busses Trucks and Cars

…and this doesn’t include the aircraft, locomotive or marine transportation infrastructure

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January 2006

So…What Does This Mean?So…What Does This Mean?

FOR STATES AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT

• New Approaches = New Choices– New model and address mobile source

pollution reduction within the global transportation infrastructure

– Incorporate better, real-world data for modeling and analysis in SIP development

– Chance to demonstrate real progress to improve health from our efforts

– Reduce the political arguments about mobile source pollution reduction strategies

– To prove that it’s working right!

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January 2006

So…What Does This Mean?So…What Does This Mean?

FOR CONTRACTORS

• New Challenges = New Opportunities– To provide new measurement tools to

address the global transportation infrastructure

– To produce extensive real-world databases that minimizes the political arguments against I/M

– To incorporate pollution data with actual health data and insure we are addressing all pollutants from mobiles sources

– To prove that it’s working right!

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January 2006

The Intended ResultsThe Intended Results

• Better measurement technology; more and better data; and better analysis tools from the EPA and industry

• New I/M programs to address reduction of pollution from all mobile sources

• An opportunity to demonstrate that clean air initiatives benefit all citizens

• Less political turmoil(OK, that’s a stretch.)

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January 2006 Christopher Stock

Vice President Marketing & Business Development

Environmental Systems Products11 Kripes RoadEast Granby, CT 06026(860) 392-2338

Christopher StockVice President Marketing & Business Development

Environmental Systems Products11 Kripes RoadEast Granby, CT 06026(860) 392-2338

Environmental Systems Products, Inc.Environmental Systems Products, Inc.