Mountain Lake Grants Presentation

57
Value Times Three Grant’s Spring Conference April 7, 2015

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Mountain Lake Grants Presentation

Transcript of Mountain Lake Grants Presentation

  • Value Times Three

    Grants Spring Conference April 7, 2015

  • The following information has been prepared solely for use by intended recipients and shall be maintained in strict confidence. The information contained herein reflect the opinions and projections of Mountain Lake Investment Management LLC and its affiliates (collectively Mountain Lake) as of the date of this presentation. All graphics, code, text and design are owned by Mountain Lake. This presentation, in its entirety or in parts, may not be reproduced without prior written permission from Mountain Lake. The information set forth herein does not purport to be complete and no obligation to update or otherwise revise such information is being assumed. Certain statements, projections, or other estimates herein are based upon certain assumptions. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the analysis. Any assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data presented. All information provided in this presentation is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as investment advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any specific security. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, interest in any Mountain Lake product.

    Disclaimer

  • Mountain Lake Partners

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    Cash Position

    9/30/2008: 54.5%

    3/31/2015: 62.8%

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    Weighted Median Market Cap of Equity Investments

  • Owens-Illinois

    3/31/2015 Market Capitalization = $3.8 billion

  • Owens-Illinois

    1903 Michael Owens completes the automated bottle blowing machine and forms Owens Bottle Machine Company.

    1929 Owens-Illinois was formed after the acquisition of Illinois Glass. 1958 Owens-Illinois sells Kaylo, its asbestos containing insulation unit, to Owens Corning. During the 10 years of ownership, aggregate sales are less than $40 million.

    Corporate History

  • Owens-Illinois Corporate History

    1987 KKR leveraged buyout for $3.7 billion 1988 With the acquisition of Brockway Glass, Owens-Illinois domestic market share is greater than 40% 1991 Initial public offering

    2014 Asbestos related payments total $4.4 billion 2015 Current market capitalization is $3.8 billion

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    Owens-Illinois Recent Decade of Nothing

    Source: Bloomberg

  • - High fixed costs - Consolidated market - Barriers to entry - Steady demand - Limited growth - Generates lots of cash

    Owens-Illinois Glass Bottle Industry Dynamics

  • European Operating Margin

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    - In Europe, Owens-Illinois has 25% market share.

    - The top three firms have 67% market share.

    - Normal margins are 12.5%.

    Owens-Illinois

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • North American Operating Margin

    - In North America, Owens-Illinois has 40% market share.

    - The top three firms have 85% market share.

    - Normal margins are 15%.

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    Owens-Illinois

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • - In Brazil, Owens-Illinois has 65% market share.

    - In Peru, Ecuador and Columbia, Owens-Illinois has 100% market share.

    - Normal margins are 20%.

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    Owens-Illinois South American Operating Margin

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • - In China, Owens-Illinois has about a 2% market share with a 0% margin.

    - In Australia and New Zealand, Owens-Illinois has 70% market share. Normal margins are 15%.

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    Owens-Illinois Asia Pacific Operating Margin

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

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    Owens-Illinois All Regions Operating Margin

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

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    Pretend Free Cash Flow*

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates *excluding payments for asbestos and restructuring

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    Cash used since 2000: $191 million per year

    Current leverage ratio: 2.4

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  • Asian and European restructurings completed in 2009 and 2015

    Cash use since 2009: $114 million per year

    Owens-Illinois

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

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  • Cash used since 2009: $158 million per year

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    Asbestos Charges Owens-Illinois

    Source: Company reports

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  • Owens-Illinois Mesothelioma Incidence

    Source: National Cancer Institute

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    Owens-Illinois Core Competency in Asbestos Litigation

    Source: Company reports

  • Owens-Illinois Recent Claims Activity

    02,0004,0006,0008,000

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    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Disposed Filed

    Source: Company reports

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    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates *excluding payments for asbestos and restructuring

  • Koppers Holdings

    3/31/2015 Market Capitalization = $403 million

  • Koppers Holdings

    1914 Heinrich Koppers sells patents for by-product coke ovens to Andrew Mellon for $300,000. Koppers Inc. reorganizes in Pittsburg.

    1960 Fletcher Byrom focuses the company on end products.

    1988 Beazer plc led an LBO

    1997 Hansen plc, who acquired Beazer in 1991, wanted control. Management exercised right of first refusal.

    2007 Streamlined company producing carbon materials and wood products has IPO.

    Corporate History

  • Koppers Holdings

    Railroad and Utility

    39%

    Carbon Materials

    and Chemicals

    61%

    2013 Revenues $1.5 billion

    Source: Company reports

  • COAL TAR

    Carbon Pitch 50% Chemical Oils 20% Distillate 30%

    Naphthalene Creosote

    Phthalic Anhydride

    Primary End Products

    AluminumVinyl, Paint and

    Concrete AdditivesRailroad Crossties

    Koppers Holdings

    Source: Company reports

  • Koppers Holdings Carbon Materials and Chemicals

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    Operating Margins

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • Koppers Holdings Carbon Materials and Chemicals

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    Return on Invested Capital

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • Koppers Holdings

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    Net Debt

    Date Acquisition Product or Service Price 8/15/2014 Osmose Wood preservation $491 M 1/20/2014 Ashcroft Crosstie treating $29.8 M

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  • Koppers Holdings

    11/7/2014 Walt Turner resigns, Leroy Ball appointed CEO

    1/14/2015 Company announces delay of low cost naphthalene plant to preserve cash

    1/22/2015 Attempt to refinance high cost debt fails

    2/26/2015 Company misses earnings guidance for 8th quarter in a row

    2/26/2015 Company announces $200mn-$250mn debt reduction target

    2/26/2015 Board of Directors suspends dividend

  • Koppers Holdings

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    Source: Bloomberg

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  • Koppers Holdings

    Railroad and Utility

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    Performance Chemicals

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    Carbon Materials

    and Chemicals

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    Source: Company reports

    2015 Revenues $1.8 billion

  • Koppers Holdings Railroad and Utility

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    Operating Margins

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • Koppers Holdings Railroad and Utility is a Good Business

    - Largest supplier of railroad ties to North American railroads

    - Two firm concentration is about 80%

    - Steady replacement market demand 600 million railroad ties wear out; over 20 million replaced every year

    - Long-term contracts with cost-plus pricing

    - Minimal capital investment

    - Margin opportunity from process improvements

  • Koppers Holdings Railroad and Utility

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  • Koppers Holdings Performance Chemicals

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

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  • Koppers Holdings Performance Chemicals is a Good Business

    - Wood treatments for outdoors decks

    - They are a dominant provider, still gaining market share

    - High IP content; patent protection

    - Not capital intensive

    - Sell to wood treaters who in turn sell to big box stores, contractors and small stores

    - Housing starts is a small percent of demand; driven by remodels

  • Koppers Holdings Performance Chemicals

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    Return on Invested Capital

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • Koppers Holdings Operating Income by Segment

    In millions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E

    Carbon Materials and Chemicals $89.1 $83.1 $43.9 -$5.3 -$9.1

    $6.5

    Railroad and Utility $34.8 $45.1 $58.3 $53.6 $73.8

    $72.6

    Performance Chemicals $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1.6 $40.6

    $37.2

    Total Segment Operating Income $123.9 $128.2 $102.2 $49.9 $105.3

    $116.3 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • Koppers Holdings Free Cash Flow

    In millions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Net Income $37.6 $67.2 $40.1 -$39.4 $37.2 $46.4 Depreciation and Amortization $48.8 $27.6 $29.7 $44.0 $65.0 $61.0 Capital Expenditures -$33.2 -$28.9 -$72.9 -$83.8 -$45.0 -$44.0 Free Cash Flow $53.2 $65.9 -$3.1 -$79.2 $57.2 $63.4

    Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • In millions Stella Jones

    Koppers Holdings

    Koppers without

    CMC

    Date 3/31/2015 3/31/2015

    3/31/2015

    Market Capitalization $2,161 $403

    $403

    Enterprise Value $2,548 $1,217

    $1,217

    2015E Revenues $1,138 $1,705

    $1,005

    2015E Operating Income $142 $105

    $114

    2015E Operating Margin 12.5% 6.2%

    11.4%

    Koppers Holdings

    Source: Bloomberg and Mountain Lake estimates

  • Tidewater Big Floating Trucks

    Boat and/or truck pictures

    3/313/2015 Market Capitalization = $898 million

  • Tidewater

    - Safe, efficient and compliant operations

    - New vessels that service all water depths

    - Geographic diversity

    - Strong customer base, relationships and contracting

    Big Floating Trucks with a Bow for Extra Beauty

  • Tidewater Vessel Population by Owner

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  • Tidewater

    Vessel Commitments Jan. 2000 Dec. 2014 Vessel Count Total Cost

    Deepwater PSVs 102 $2,900m

    Deepwater AHTSs 12 $387m

    Towing Supply/Supply 111 $1,667m

    Other 53 $227m

    Totals 278 $5,181m

    Source: Company reports

  • Tidewater

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  • (in Billions)

    Vessel and Related Equipment $4.63 Net PP&E $3.67 Goodwill $0.00 Net Debt $1.41 Equity $2.51

    Shares 46.9 M Book Value per Share $53.50 Stock price as of 3/31/2015 $19.14 Market cap as of 3/31/2015 $897 M

    Tidewater 12/31/2014 Balance Sheet Items

    Source: Company reports and Bloomberg

  • Tidewater Debt Maturities

    Fiscal Year ending March 31

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    Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • Tidewater

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    Operating Margin

    Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

  • Tidewater

    Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

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  • Tidewater

    We are here, 85 days until positive

    free cash flow

    Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

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    Capital Expenditures

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  • Tidewater

    Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates

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  • Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Owens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisSlide Number 8Owens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisSlide Number 25Koppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsSlide Number 34Koppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterSlide Number 49TidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterSlide Number 57