Mountain Lake Grants Presentation
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Transcript of Mountain Lake Grants Presentation
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Value Times Three
Grants Spring Conference April 7, 2015
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The following information has been prepared solely for use by intended recipients and shall be maintained in strict confidence. The information contained herein reflect the opinions and projections of Mountain Lake Investment Management LLC and its affiliates (collectively Mountain Lake) as of the date of this presentation. All graphics, code, text and design are owned by Mountain Lake. This presentation, in its entirety or in parts, may not be reproduced without prior written permission from Mountain Lake. The information set forth herein does not purport to be complete and no obligation to update or otherwise revise such information is being assumed. Certain statements, projections, or other estimates herein are based upon certain assumptions. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the analysis. Any assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data presented. All information provided in this presentation is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as investment advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any specific security. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, interest in any Mountain Lake product.
Disclaimer
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Mountain Lake Partners
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%20
05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Cash Position
9/30/2008: 54.5%
3/31/2015: 62.8%
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Mountain Lake Partners bi
llion
s
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Weighted Median Market Cap of Equity Investments
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Owens-Illinois
3/31/2015 Market Capitalization = $3.8 billion
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Owens-Illinois
1903 Michael Owens completes the automated bottle blowing machine and forms Owens Bottle Machine Company.
1929 Owens-Illinois was formed after the acquisition of Illinois Glass. 1958 Owens-Illinois sells Kaylo, its asbestos containing insulation unit, to Owens Corning. During the 10 years of ownership, aggregate sales are less than $40 million.
Corporate History
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Owens-Illinois Corporate History
1987 KKR leveraged buyout for $3.7 billion 1988 With the acquisition of Brockway Glass, Owens-Illinois domestic market share is greater than 40% 1991 Initial public offering
2014 Asbestos related payments total $4.4 billion 2015 Current market capitalization is $3.8 billion
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$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Stock Price
Owens-Illinois Recent Decade of Nothing
Source: Bloomberg
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- High fixed costs - Consolidated market - Barriers to entry - Steady demand - Limited growth - Generates lots of cash
Owens-Illinois Glass Bottle Industry Dynamics
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European Operating Margin
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
- In Europe, Owens-Illinois has 25% market share.
- The top three firms have 67% market share.
- Normal margins are 12.5%.
Owens-Illinois
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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North American Operating Margin
- In North America, Owens-Illinois has 40% market share.
- The top three firms have 85% market share.
- Normal margins are 15%.
0%5%
10%15%20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Owens-Illinois
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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- In Brazil, Owens-Illinois has 65% market share.
- In Peru, Ecuador and Columbia, Owens-Illinois has 100% market share.
- Normal margins are 20%.
0%5%
10%15%20%25%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Owens-Illinois South American Operating Margin
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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- In China, Owens-Illinois has about a 2% market share with a 0% margin.
- In Australia and New Zealand, Owens-Illinois has 70% market share. Normal margins are 15%.
0%5%
10%15%20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Owens-Illinois Asia Pacific Operating Margin
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
-
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%20
09
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Owens-Illinois All Regions Operating Margin
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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Owens-Illinois m
illio
ns
$0$100$200$300$400$500$600
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Pretend Free Cash Flow*
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates *excluding payments for asbestos and restructuring
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$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
2000 2005 2010 2014
Net Debt
Cash used since 2000: $191 million per year
Current leverage ratio: 2.4
Owens-Illinois bi
llion
s
Source: Company reports
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Asian and European restructurings completed in 2009 and 2015
Cash use since 2009: $114 million per year
Owens-Illinois
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
Restructuring Charges
mill
ions
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Cash used since 2009: $158 million per year
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Asbestos Charges Owens-Illinois
Source: Company reports
mill
ions
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Owens-Illinois Mesothelioma Incidence
Source: National Cancer Institute
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010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Asbestos Claims Pending
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Asbestos Claims Filed
Owens-Illinois Core Competency in Asbestos Litigation
Source: Company reports
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Owens-Illinois Recent Claims Activity
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Disposed Filed
Source: Company reports
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$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Reported Free Cash Flow
Owens-Illinois
The impact in 2014 from the strong USD was $40 million.
mill
ions
Source: Company reports
-
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Owens-Illinois
Reported Free Cash Flow with Estimates
mill
ions
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
-
Owens-Illinois Reported Free Cash Flow with
Estimates and Adjusted Estimates*
mill
ions
$0$100$200$300$400$500$600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates *excluding payments for asbestos and restructuring
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Koppers Holdings
3/31/2015 Market Capitalization = $403 million
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Koppers Holdings
1914 Heinrich Koppers sells patents for by-product coke ovens to Andrew Mellon for $300,000. Koppers Inc. reorganizes in Pittsburg.
1960 Fletcher Byrom focuses the company on end products.
1988 Beazer plc led an LBO
1997 Hansen plc, who acquired Beazer in 1991, wanted control. Management exercised right of first refusal.
2007 Streamlined company producing carbon materials and wood products has IPO.
Corporate History
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Koppers Holdings
Railroad and Utility
39%
Carbon Materials
and Chemicals
61%
2013 Revenues $1.5 billion
Source: Company reports
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COAL TAR
Carbon Pitch 50% Chemical Oils 20% Distillate 30%
Naphthalene Creosote
Phthalic Anhydride
Primary End Products
AluminumVinyl, Paint and
Concrete AdditivesRailroad Crossties
Koppers Holdings
Source: Company reports
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Koppers Holdings Carbon Materials and Chemicals
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
Operating Margins
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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Koppers Holdings Carbon Materials and Chemicals
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
Return on Invested Capital
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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Koppers Holdings
$0$200$400$600$800
$1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Net Debt
Date Acquisition Product or Service Price 8/15/2014 Osmose Wood preservation $491 M 1/20/2014 Ashcroft Crosstie treating $29.8 M
mill
ions
Source: Company reports
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Koppers Holdings
11/7/2014 Walt Turner resigns, Leroy Ball appointed CEO
1/14/2015 Company announces delay of low cost naphthalene plant to preserve cash
1/22/2015 Attempt to refinance high cost debt fails
2/26/2015 Company misses earnings guidance for 8th quarter in a row
2/26/2015 Company announces $200mn-$250mn debt reduction target
2/26/2015 Board of Directors suspends dividend
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Koppers Holdings
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 20152014 Year End Shares = 20.5 million
Source: Bloomberg
Stock Price
-
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2015 2016-2017 2018-2019 2020+
Debt Maturities
Koppers Holdings m
illio
ns
Source: Company reports
-
Koppers Holdings
Railroad and Utility
38%
Performance Chemicals
21%
Carbon Materials
and Chemicals
41%
Source: Company reports
2015 Revenues $1.8 billion
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Koppers Holdings Railroad and Utility
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%
2012 2013 2014 2015E
Operating Margins
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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Koppers Holdings Railroad and Utility is a Good Business
- Largest supplier of railroad ties to North American railroads
- Two firm concentration is about 80%
- Steady replacement market demand 600 million railroad ties wear out; over 20 million replaced every year
- Long-term contracts with cost-plus pricing
- Minimal capital investment
- Margin opportunity from process improvements
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Koppers Holdings Railroad and Utility
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
Return on Invested Capital
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
-
Koppers Holdings Performance Chemicals
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
$0$100$200$300$400
2014 2015E 2016E
Revenues
0%
5%
10%
15%
2014 2015E 2016E
Operating Margins
-
Koppers Holdings Performance Chemicals is a Good Business
- Wood treatments for outdoors decks
- They are a dominant provider, still gaining market share
- High IP content; patent protection
- Not capital intensive
- Sell to wood treaters who in turn sell to big box stores, contractors and small stores
- Housing starts is a small percent of demand; driven by remodels
-
Koppers Holdings Performance Chemicals
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
Return on Invested Capital
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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Koppers Holdings Operating Income by Segment
In millions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Carbon Materials and Chemicals $89.1 $83.1 $43.9 -$5.3 -$9.1
$6.5
Railroad and Utility $34.8 $45.1 $58.3 $53.6 $73.8
$72.6
Performance Chemicals $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1.6 $40.6
$37.2
Total Segment Operating Income $123.9 $128.2 $102.2 $49.9 $105.3
$116.3 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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Koppers Holdings Free Cash Flow
In millions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Net Income $37.6 $67.2 $40.1 -$39.4 $37.2 $46.4 Depreciation and Amortization $48.8 $27.6 $29.7 $44.0 $65.0 $61.0 Capital Expenditures -$33.2 -$28.9 -$72.9 -$83.8 -$45.0 -$44.0 Free Cash Flow $53.2 $65.9 -$3.1 -$79.2 $57.2 $63.4
Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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In millions Stella Jones
Koppers Holdings
Koppers without
CMC
Date 3/31/2015 3/31/2015
3/31/2015
Market Capitalization $2,161 $403
$403
Enterprise Value $2,548 $1,217
$1,217
2015E Revenues $1,138 $1,705
$1,005
2015E Operating Income $142 $105
$114
2015E Operating Margin 12.5% 6.2%
11.4%
Koppers Holdings
Source: Bloomberg and Mountain Lake estimates
-
Tidewater Big Floating Trucks
Boat and/or truck pictures
3/313/2015 Market Capitalization = $898 million
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Tidewater
- Safe, efficient and compliant operations
- New vessels that service all water depths
- Geographic diversity
- Strong customer base, relationships and contracting
Big Floating Trucks with a Bow for Extra Beauty
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Tidewater Vessel Population by Owner
Dee
pwat
er V
esse
ls o
nly
Source: Company reports
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Tidewater
Vessel Commitments Jan. 2000 Dec. 2014 Vessel Count Total Cost
Deepwater PSVs 102 $2,900m
Deepwater AHTSs 12 $387m
Towing Supply/Supply 111 $1,667m
Other 53 $227m
Totals 278 $5,181m
Source: Company reports
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Tidewater
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$9020
05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Stock Price
Source: Bloomberg
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(in Billions)
Vessel and Related Equipment $4.63 Net PP&E $3.67 Goodwill $0.00 Net Debt $1.41 Equity $2.51
Shares 46.9 M Book Value per Share $53.50 Stock price as of 3/31/2015 $19.14 Market cap as of 3/31/2015 $897 M
Tidewater 12/31/2014 Balance Sheet Items
Source: Company reports and Bloomberg
-
Tidewater Debt Maturities
Fiscal Year ending March 31
mill
ions
Source: Company reports
-
Tidewater
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E20
16E
2017
E20
18E
Vessel Cash Operating Margin
Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
-
Tidewater
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%20
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
15E
2016
E20
17E
2018
E
Operating Margin
Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
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Tidewater
Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
mill
ions
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E20
16E
Free Cash Flow
-
Tidewater
We are here, 85 days until positive
free cash flow
Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
4Q20
151Q
2016
2Q20
163Q
2016
4Q20
161Q
2017
2Q20
173Q
2017
4Q20
171Q
2018
2Q20
183Q
2018
4Q20
18
Capital Expenditures
mill
ions
-
Tidewater
Fiscal Year ending March 31 Source: Company reports and Mountain Lake estimates
-$400-$300-$200-$100
$0$100$200$300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E20
16E
2017
E20
18E
Free Cash Flow m
illio
ns
-
Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Owens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisSlide Number 8Owens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisOwens-IllinoisSlide Number 25Koppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsSlide Number 34Koppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsKoppers HoldingsTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterSlide Number 49TidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterTidewaterSlide Number 57