Mount Rainier Evacuation PlanCPT Cardy Moten III, USA

LT Volkan Sozen, Turkish Army

OutlineBackground

Problem

Assumptions

Model Overview

Results

Further Research

Questions

Background• Pierce County

• Mount Rainier

• Lahars• Volcanic Mudflows• Can occur with or without an

eruption• Examples

• Mount Saint Helens (1980)• Columbia (1985)• Africa (2012)

Background

• Impact• Major residential areas

inhabitable• Portions of I-5 and other state

roads inaccessible• Port of Tacoma

• 75% of goods for Eastern and Central US

• 70% of consumer goods for Alaska

Problem• Short term (No Eruption)

• Early warning from lahar detection system only

• Analyze total number not evacuated

• Given:• 2 hours• 43,395 vehicles• Varying lahar travel times

Problem• Long term (Eruption)

• Analyze total required evacuation time

• Given:• 727,635 evacuees• Various warning horizons• Same evacuees

Simplifying Assumptions All households have one vehicle for evacuation

Total passengers per vehicle was an average of four

Transportation routes will be utilized to max capacity with serious gridlock.

Some personnel will evacuate even if they aren’t in danger, causing an uptick in network utilization.

Short-Term Scenario

Network Overview

4080

110

Lahar travel time in minutes from time of detection

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

BuckleyWilkeson

Carbonado

AshfordElbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

MckennaYelm

MortonRandle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Short Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified Graph

Roadway

N

Long-Term Scenario

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

BuckleyWilkeson

Carbonado

AshfordElbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

MckennaYelm

MortonRandle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Castle Rock

Lacey

Roadway

N

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

BuckleyWilkeson

Carbonado

AshfordElbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

MckennaYelm

MortonRandle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Long Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified Graph

Roadway

N

Model Overview• Modeled for min cost flow

• Used time layered format

• Only major state and interstate roads for edges

• Considered lahar reach time for each city

End

Time = n

Time = n+1

Time = n+2C,

0,U

B

0,0,∞

1,0,

∞

Model Overview• Values on edges are

(C,LB,UB):

• C = Travel times• Lower Bound(LB) = 0• Upper Bound(UB)=Edge

capacity• 30 vehicles for state

roads• 80 vehicles for

interstate• Total population for

end node

End

Time = n

Time = n+1

Time = n+2C,

0,U

B

0,0,∞

1,0,

∞

Congestion

Model OverviewShort-term evacuation graph (small model)

80 time layers6,247 nodes14,118 edges

Long-term evacuation graph(large model)1000 time layers80,081 nodes295,486 edges

Short-Term Evacuation Results w/o Interdicion

Undirected Travel Lanes Could not evacuate a total of

13 cities. Percentage of households

stranded was 45%

Network Design Directed Travel Lanes

Met demand for all danger areas except 15% of Puyallup’s population

Not all of Puyallup’s citizens live near the Puyallup river

Recommend opposite traffic flow on 33 roads

Puyallup River

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

BuckleyWilkeson

Carbonado

AshfordElbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

MckennaYelm

MortonRandle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Short Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified GraphUndirected Travel

Roadway

N

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

BuckleyWilkeson

Carbonado

AshfordElbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

MckennaYelm

MortonRandle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Short Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified GraphDirected Travel

Roadway

N

Interdicted short-term plan

Two-way travel only Attacks isolated

personnel in:PuyallupSumner

Interdiction Model Results

0 1 2 3 4 5 62000

6000

10000

14000

18000

# of Inaccessable Roads versus # of Stranded Vehicles

# of Interdictions

Stra

nded

Veh

icle

s

Long-Term Evacuation Results

No Interdiction Total evacuation time is 15 hours Total-run time for the model took 24 minutes

Interdiction Best attack was to shut off route to Castle rock in the south Total evacuation time is 16.1 hours Total run-time for the model took 86 minutes

Mount Rainier

Greenwater

Enumclaw

BuckleyWilkeson

Carbonado

AshfordElbe

Eatonville

Orting

Sumner

Graham

MckennaYelm

MortonRandle

Packwodd

Gig Harbor

Puyallup

Tacoma

Federal Way Auburn

Kent

Renton

Seattle

Alder

Long Term Evacuation Scenario

Castle Rock

Safe Node

Transit Node

Evacuation Node

Lacey

Simplified Graph

Roadway

N

Block here

Further Research Emplace more roadblocks on the long-term scenario

Conduct a fine-grain analysis on the short-term evacuation of Puyallup

Minimize the evacuation of the last household to leave the region

Data Evacuation planning data extracted from the Pierce County

Evacuation Plan (2008)

Population data is from the US Census American Fact Finder website http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml

Highway capacities estimated from thesis submitted by LCDR April Malveo (2013)

QUESTIONS?