Mosaic WarfareMosaic Warfare = joint multi-domain lethality at speed 9 Supplier Consumer S 1 S 12 S...
Transcript of Mosaic WarfareMosaic Warfare = joint multi-domain lethality at speed 9 Supplier Consumer S 1 S 12 S...
27 July 2018
Mosaic WarfareDr. Tim Grayson
Director, DARPA/STO
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Asymmetric Advantages ErodingUNCLASSIFIED
•Adversaries have had 25+ years after Desert Storm to analyze U.S. playbook and
develop competing weapon systems
Chinese KJ-2000
Chinese PL-15 Missile
Russian S-400 IADS
Iranian Fateh-110 SRBM
IRBM: Intermediate Range Ballistic MissileSRBM: Short-Range Ballistic Missile
© 2009 Zhenguan Studio
© lt.cjdby.net Source: UMNICK
Source: M-ATF
Chinese J-31 Stealth Fighter
Russian PAK-FA (T-50) Stealth Fighter
North Korean Musudan IRBM
Russian SS-N-26 Cruise Missile
© 2011 Alex Beltyukov
© 2010 EPA
Licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2
ChineseSpace Robotics
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Source: Wired
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A modern complication: a slow reactionUNCLASSIFIED
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Time to field exquisite DoD systems untenable,but there is hope
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Shown: post-WWII new start aircraft developments
Sources: DARPA/TTO 2012 TTM study. D. Patt. “Start” defined as receipt of contract.
Tim
e-to
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ket
It’s not simply complexity or
software content driving increased time-to-market
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How we win – pivot to lethality
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• lethality through diversity of options• impose cost/penalty for any adversary action• adversary left without good options – doesn’t play
• cannot expect to continue to cover down with invulnerable monolithic systems
• incremental improvement on current paradigm is untenable
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The promise and payoff of distributed, disaggregated SoS
senseC2
kill
sense1
sense2
C2
kill
first principlessee first ● shoot first ● wintake action with minimal riskbe resilient and adaptable (OODA)
Limitations:Vulnerable to evolving adversary kill-chainsDifficult to upgrade
Advantages:See first, shoot first via distributionHeterogenousAdaptableSpreads riskCan break adversary kill chain
UNCLASSIFIED
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Distributed systems must be Mosaic to win
pieces, interfaces painstakingly engineered can only be assembled in one way
creates a distributed monolithretains legacy vulnerabilities, introduces new set
pieces, interfaces engineered for interoperabilitycan be assembled in many ways
creates an adaptable, resilient, distributed systemretains, improves legacy capability, mitigates vulnerabilities
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© Dotti Stone© Kyoshino
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How do we make “joint multi-domain battle” fast and adaptive?8
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Mosaic Warfare = joint multi-domain lethality at speed9
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Mosaic technologies must address the entire combat lifecycle
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todaymonths -
years
goaldays -
months
• What effects applied where will meet objectives?• How should assets be provisioned?• How, when will assets get there?
todaymonths -
years
goalhours -days
• What elements can deliver desired effect?• How can effects delivery be “verified” at mission-planning
speed given situation uncertainty?
todaydays -months
goalhours
• Employ effects chains during campaign• Integrate autonomous, semi-autonomous effects chains• Train humans to operate with Mosaic elements, chains
todayhours -days
goalmins -hours
• What assets are assigned to what effects chain• Optimize resources against competing demands, objectives• Abstract assets for allocation decision making
Decision
Composition
the
Mos
aic
“Sta
ck”
Mission Planning
Resource Management
Task Planning
Execution
todayhours -days
goalsecs -mins
• Task assignment for specific systems (e.g. within a swarm)• How can tasking be distributed to heterogeneous systems
in a way it can be understood?
todaymins -hours
goalms –secs
• How are systems physically connected (e.g. comms links)?• Can non-native software run on systems?• How can execution be monitored, verified in real-time?
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The Pathway to Mosaic Warfare
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Distributed Kill Chain System-of-Systems Adaptive Kill Web Mosaic Warfare
Example NIFC-CA SoSITE TBD TBD
Description Manual integration of existing systems
Systems prepped for multiple battle configurations
Semi-automated ability to select a pre-defined effects web prior to mission
Ability to compose new effectswebs at campaign time
Benefits • Extends effective range• Increases engagement
opportunity
• Enables faster integration and more diverse kill chains
• Allows pre-mission adaptation• More lethal, imposes
complexity on adversary
• Adaptable to dynamic threat and environment
• Scaling to many simultaneous engagements
Challenges • Static• Long to build• Difficult to operate and scale
• Each architecture static Limited ability to adapt
• Cannot add new capabilities on the fly
• Difficult to operate and scale
• Static “playbook”• Limited number of kill chains• May not scale well
• Scaling limited by human decision makers
t=1t=n
t=0
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