MORTGAGE MONITOR - Black Knight, Inc. · the smallest among portfolio-held loans (+1%) » Despite...

FEBRUARY 2019 REPORT

MORTGAGE MONITOR

https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&report-year=2018

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Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2019 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 2Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2019 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Each month, the Black Knight Mortgage Monitor looks at a variety of issues related to the mortgage finance and housing industries.

This month, as always, we begin with a review of some of the high-level mortgage performance statistics reported in our most recent First Look report, with an update on delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. We then take a deeper dive into February’s unseasonal rise in delinquencies and provide a detailed breakdown of recent shifts in prepayment activity. As 30-year mortgage interest rates fell by 22 BPS in the last week of March, we also revisit the impact this decline is having on refinance incentive.

Next, we turn to the national equity landscape. As of the end of 2018, tappable equity had declined for two consecutive quarters. Here, we look at that decline, along with an in-depth review of falling equity withdrawals among homeowners with mortgages. Finally we undertake a review Q4 2018 origination metrics along with a high-level review of year-end 2018 origination metrics as a whole. We also discuss the rising share of cash-out refinance lending.

In producing the Mortgage Monitor, Black Knight’s Data & Analytics division aggregates, analyzes and reports upon the most recently available data from the company’s vast mortgage and housing related data assets. Information is gathered from the McDash loan-level mortgage performance dataset, the Black Knight HPI and the company’s robust public property records database covering 99.9% of the U.S. population. For more information on gaining access to Black Knight’s data assets, please call 844-474-2537 or email [email protected].

FEBRUARY 2019 OVERVIEW

MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY FIRST LOOK RELEASE

FEBRUARY PERFORMANCE SPOTLIGHT

Q4 2018 EQUITY LANDSCAPE

ORIGINATION UPDATE

APPENDIX

DISCLOSURES

3

4

9

14

17

20

CONTENTS




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MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 3

Here we have an overview of findings from Black Knight’s ‘First Look’ at February mortgage performance data. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

FEBRUARY 2019 FIRST LOOK RELEASE

Significant declines in foreclosure starts are not uncommon in February due to the short month; this month’s improvement was slightly stronger than the 10-year average of a 14% decline.

FEBRUARY OVERVIEW STATS

CHANGE IN DELINQUENCY RATE

Delinquencies saw the first February increase in 12 years

Even so, they’re still more than 9.5% below last year’s level

3.7%

TOTAL FORECLOSURE STARTS

February’s starts edged close to September 2018’s 18-year low

Starts are down 17% 2019 YTD as compared to the same period last year

PREPAYMENT RATE

Prepays rose in February, coming off January’s 18-year low

The rise suggests an increase in refi activity driven by lower interest rates

11.1%-19.5%



https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-first-look-at-february-2019-mortgage-data/


https://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BKI_MM_Feb2019_Chart01.pdf




MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 4

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HISTORICAL FEBRUARY MORTGAGE PERFORMANCE(1-MONTH CHANGE IN NATIONAL DELINQUENCY RATE)

Here we take a deeper dive into February’s unseasonal rise in delinquencies along with a detailed breakdown of recent shifts in prepayment activity. In light of late-breaking declines in mortgage interest rates, we also revisit the impact this is having on refinance incentive. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

FEBRUARY 2019 PERFORMANCE SPOTLIGHT

» In fact, it was only the second such increase in 15 years, including 2008-2010 when double-digit annual increases were the norm

» Monthly increases were observed across all credit and investor classes

» The largest increase was among GSE loans (+9% M/M), and the smallest among portfolio-held loans (+1%)

» Despite the rise, fewer than 2% of GSE loans are 30 or more days delinquent, the lowest among all investor classes

» Tax season is typically credited for strong spring mortgage performance metrics, and may provide a hint as to why performance took a step back in February 2019

February 2019 saw the first delinquency increase for that month in 12 years

HISTORICAL FEBRUARY MORTGAGE PERFORMANCE(1-MONTH CHANGE IN NATIONAL DELINQUENCY RATE)






MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 5


» IRS tax filing data shows that at the beginning of February tax return filings were down 12% year-over-year, while processed filings were down by nearly 26%

» That equates to more than 4.6M fewer tax returns processed than at the same time in 2018

» Refund numbers were also down by 24% as of February 1st compared to 2018, and the aggregate refund amount was down by more than 30% (-$4B)

» Filing numbers have since normalized, likely as the IRS catches up after being impacted by the government shutdown

» This suggests we could also see some catch-up in terms of mortgage performance in March's numbers

» Still, since March 2019 ends on a Sunday – which typically causes a significant dampening in performance – it remains to be seen how robust the rebound will be

Individual Tax Returns: 2018 2019 % ChangeTotal Returns Received 18,302,000 16,035,000 -12.4%Total Returns Processed 17,931,000 13,306,000 -25.8%

Total Refunds: 2018 2019 % ChangeNumber 6,171,000 4,672,000 -24.3%Amount $12.6B $8.7B -30.6%Average refund $2,035 $1,865 -8.4%

Cumulative statistics comparing 02/02/2018 and 02/01/2019

Individual Tax Returns: 2018 2019 % ChangeTotal Returns Received 61,150,000 59,223,000 -3.2%

Total Returns Processed 59,048,000 56,875,000 -3.7%z

Total Refunds: 2018 2019 % ChangeNumber 48,452,000 46,416,000 -4.2%Amount $147.6B $142.4B -3.5%Average refund $3,046 $3,068 0.7%

Cumulative statistics comparing 3/02/2018 and 3/01/2019

IRS TAX RETURN DATA

As of February 1st 2019

As of March 1st 2019

While correlation doesn’t always equal causation, the slow start to tax season may be a factor in February's delinquency uptick





MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 6


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Vintage

PREPAYMENT SPEEDS (SMM) BY VINTAGEJanuary 2019 February 2019

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PREPAYMENT RATE (SMM) BY INVESTOR / PRODUCTGSE FHA/VA PORTFOLIO PRIVATE

» Despite February’s 11% increase in prepay activity, prepayment rates remain historically low

» Portfolio-held loans saw the largest increase (+23% M/M) in prepayment activity; the high average balances and credit scores among these loans makes them more susceptible to prepay increases when rates drop

» FHA/VA prepays followed with a +15% M/M increase, then GSEs at +5% M/M; private label securities (PLS) loans saw the only monthly decline at -3%

» From a credit score perspective, prepays were up 14% among 720+ credit score borrowers while falling slightly among those with credit scores below 620

» Increases in prepayments were primarily among more recent vintages, with the largest jump among 2018 vintage loans, which saw their single-month-mortality (SMM) increase by approximately 60% from January to February

» As reported in our January Mortgage Monitor, there are over 250K 2018 vintage loans that could likely qualify for a .75% rate savings through refinance due to recent interest rate declines

» This data suggests borrowers are starting to take advantage already, pulling prepayment rates among 2018 loans well above those of 2015 – 2017 vintages

PREPAYMENT RATE (SMM) BY INVESTOR / PRODUCT PREPAYMENT SPEEDS (SMM) BY VINTAGE





https://cdn.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BKI_MM_Jan2019_Report.pdf#page=6


MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 7


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PREPAY ACTIVITY (SMM) BY CAUSE OF PREPAYMENT(QUARTER-END FIGURES HISTORICALLY)

Rate/Term Refi Cash-out Refi Sale of Home Curtailment Default

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28

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PREPAY ACTIVITY (SMM) BY CAUSE OF PREPAYMENT(24-MONTH DETAILED BREAKDOWN)

Rate/Term Refi Cash-out Refi Sale of Home Curtailment Default

» Impacts from recent rate declines have been mild to date, but February’s prepay activity increase suggest that they've now became noticeably more pronounced

» Looking at curtailment, default, and home sale-related prepayments from January to February in both 2017 and 2018, all hold steady almost identically month-over-month

» Assuming the same held true in 2019, it would suggest that most, if not all, of February's 11% rise in prepays could be attributed to increased refi activity

» In fact, given February’s overall increase, refi-driven prepayments could be up by as much as 40% from November’s 18-year low

» Home sale driven prepayments have now fallen in each of the past six months on an annual basis, suggesting a slowdown in trade-up-related home sale transactions

» Still, homes sales accounted for an estimated 40% of prepayments in January, up from 33% at this time last year due to year-over-year declines in refi activity

PREPAY ACTIVITY (SMM) BY CAUSE OF PREPAYMENT(24-MONTH DETAILED BREAKDOWN)

PREPAY ACTIVITY (SMM) BY CAUSE OF PREPAYMENT(QUARTER-END FIGURES HISTORICALLY)






MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 8

» On March 28th 2019, 30-year fixed rates experienced the largest single week decline (-22BPS) since 2008

» The average 30-year rate now stands at 4.06%, the lowest point in more than a year and down nearly 0.9% from the recent peak in November 2018

» While this will certainly impact buying power and housing demand as we enter the spring homebuying season, it’s also had a massive impact on refinance incentive almost overnight

» 1.6M more homeowners now have both the likely ability and incentive to refinance, a nearly 50% rise in refinance incentive in a single week

» The population of such refinanceable borrowers is now near a two-year high, after hitting a 10-year low as little as four months ago

» After seeing refinance volumes drop significantly in late 2018, this is a game changer for both the housing and refi markets if rates hold at this level for an extended period of time

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M

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REFINANCE CANDIDATES IN MILLIONSRefinance Candidates (left axis) Freddie 30-Year Fixed Rate (right axis)

4.9M

*As of March 28, 2019.

There are now more than 4.9M homeowners with a mortgage who could likely qualify for a refinance and reduce their interest rate by at least 0.75% by doing so






MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 9

As of the end of 2018, tappable equity had declined for two consecutive quarters. Here, we look at that decline, along with an in-depth review of falling equity withdrawals among homeowners with mortgages. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s Home Price index and the company’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

FEBRUARY 2019 Q4 2018 EQUITY LANDSCAPE

» After reaching a high of $6.06 trillion in Q2 2018, tappable equity has since fallen by $348 billion, with $229 billion of that drop coming in Q4 alone

» As the vast majority of the decline was seen among homeowners with more than 20% equity in their homes, the loss of equity is more a matter of reduced borrowing power than a significant increase in equity stress on the market

» That said, the data did show 63K homeowners fall back underwater over the past six months

» Despite the declines, 95 of the 100 largest U.S. markets have as much or more tappable equity as at this time last year, even factoring in equity withdrawals via cash-out refinances or home equity loans/lines of credit made throughout 2018

$4,285

$4,914

$4,627

$3,755

$2,830

$2,603

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$4,690

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TAPPABLE EQUITY OF U.S. MORTGAGE HOLDERSTappable equity – the amount available to homeowners with mortgages before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value (LTV) ratio – fell for the second consecutive quarter as home prices have pulled back in recent months

TAPPABLE EQUITY OF U.S. MORTGAGE HOLDERS






MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 10


» Tappable equity has fallen in two-thirds of states and large metropolitan areas over the past six months

» Despite California's tappable equity declining by more than $200B (-9%), it continues to hold 37% of the national total, and 6.5X as much as Texas, the next closest state (with $322B)

» Washington's decline was the second largest by dollar amount (-$33B) and the largest on a percentage basis (-12%) over the back half of 2018

» The average Washington home price dropped by $13K in the second half of 2018, a slightly smaller dollar-amount decline than in California, but higher by percentage (-3.1% vs. -2.6%)

$126B

$151B

$171B

$189B

$199B

$234B

$267B

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$322B

$2,117B

$B $500B $1,000B $1,500B $2,000B $2,500B

Georgia

Massachusetts

New Jersey

llinois

Colorado

Washington

New York

Florida

Texas

California

TAPPABLE EQUITY COMPARISON BY STATE (TOP 10 STATES BY TAPPABLE EQUITY VOLUME)

Q4 2018 Q2 2018

Declining tappable equity in California – where the average home price fell by $14,600 over the last six months of 2018 – accounted for more than 60% of the total national reduction

TAPPABLE EQUITY COMPARISON BY STATE(TOP 10 STATES BY TAPPABLE EQUITY VOLUME)





MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 11

$169B

$171B

$497B

$395B

$122B

$760B

$91B

$110B

$125B

$187B$129B

TAPPABLE EQUITY BY CBSA – Q4 2018

$125B

$129B

$156B

$169B

$171B

$187B

$274B

$395B

$497B

$760B

$B $200B $400B $600B $800B

Dallas, TX

Boston, MA

San Diego, CA

Washington, DC

Seattle, WA

Chicago, IL

San Jose, CA

New York, NY

San Francisco, CA

Los Angeles, CA

TAPPABLE EQUITY COMPARISON BY CBSA(TOP 10 CBSAS BY TAPPABLE EQUITY VOLUME)

Q4 2018 Q2 2018

» Looking at Q4 2018 market-level data, tappable equity fell in 9 of the 10 markets with the largest volumes of available equity

» Tappable equity fell in each of California’s 15 largest markets

» San Francisco's decline was largest by dollar amount ($67B), while San Jose led on a percentage basis with tappable equity slipping by 16%

» Los Angeles followed with a $40B reduction in tappable equity in the fourth quarter

» Washington’s decline primarily came from Seattle and surrounding areas where tappable equity is down $30B (-15%) from its mid-2018 peak

» The top 10 markets shown here account for half of tappable equity nationwide, but account for over 70% of the net decline

» It should be noted that movement in tappable equity numbers is much more sensitive than home prices themselves


TAPPABLE EQUITY BY CBSA – Q4 2018 TAPPABLE EQUITY COMPARISON BY CBSA(TOP 10 CBSAS BY TAPPABLE EQUITY VOLUME)






MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 12

» Equity withdrawals also took a noticeable step back in Q4 2018, falling by 8% Q/Q and 16% Y/Y

» A total of $61B was withdrawn from the market via HELOCs and cash-out refinances, the lowest equity withdrawal volume since Q1 2016, despite equity withdrawals typically peaking in Q4

» HELOC withdrawals were down 10% both Q/Q and Y/Y, hitting the lowest level in nearly four years, while cash-out refis were down 21% Y/Y, but only 4% Q/Q

» This suggests consumers chose cash-out refinancing over HELOCs despite rising 30-year fixed interest rates in Q4

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EQUITY TAPPED BY QUARTER Equity Tapped via HELOC ($B) Equity Tapped via Cash-out Refi ($B) % of Available Equity Tapped

Source: HELOC volumes sourced from Equifax Credit Trends report. ‘Equity Tapped via HELOC ($B)’ estimated by applying refi blend of HELOC originations observed in McDash Home Equity loan level database.

Just slightly more than 1% of starting tappable equity was withdrawn in Q4, the lowest share of available equity withdrawn since the housing recovery began in 2012


EQUITY TAPPED BY QUARTER





MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 13

1.03%

0.47%0.56%

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SHARE OF AVAILABLE EQUITY WITHDRAWNTotal via Cash-out Refinance via 2nd Lien HELOC

54%

4.78%

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HELOC SHARE OF TOTAL EQUITY TAPPED HELOC Share of Equity Tapped (left axis) Avg Freddie 30-Yr Fixed Rate (right axis)

» The share of available equity withdrawn via HELOCs has been on the decline for the better part of three years now, as rising short-term rates have made tapping equity via a line of credit more expensive

» As 30-year fixed interest rates hit their high point for 2018 in the fourth quarter, we saw a similar trend play out among cash-out refis as well

» The last time interest rates neared 4.5%, roughly 70% of equity was tapped via HELOCs, but when rates crossed that threshold in Q4 2018, there was closer to a 50/50 split of equity withdrawals, suggesting would-be HELOC candidates are opting for cash-out refinances due to the sharp rise in HELOC rate offerings

» While a subset of borrowers opted for cash-outs over HELOCs, a larger share opted not to tap equity at all

» Using 2017 equity withdrawal rates as a benchmark (roughly equivalent to the overall post-recession average), we estimate that more than 600K homeowners may have foregone an equity withdrawal in 2018

» That amounts to some 330K potential cash-out refinance and 300K HELOC candidates choosing to forego equity withdrawal in the face of rising interest rates

» Heading into Q2 2019, the 30-year fixed rate stands at 4.3%; the last time rates were at this level, cash-out withdrawals as a share of available equity were more than 25% above where they were in Q4 2018

» This suggests we could see a noticeable rebound in homeowners tapping available equity via cash-out refis in coming months, given the increased rate incentive to do so


SHARE OF AVAILABLE EQUITY WITHDRAWN HELOC SHARE OF TOTAL EQUITY TAPPED






MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 14

Here, we review Q4 2018 origination metrics along with a high-level review of 2018 origination numbers as a whole. We also discuss the rising share of cash-out refinance lending. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

FEBRUARY 2019 ORIGINATION UPDATE

$1,114B

$1,173B

$788B

$573B

$T

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FIRST LIEN MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONSPurchase Refinance

2018Q4 $B

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FIRST LIEN MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONS – BY QUARTERPurchase Refinance

» The $1.75 trillion in first-lien originations in 2018 marked an 8% Y/Y decline and the lowest annual total in four years

» Purchase loans made up 67% of all lending, the highest such share in 18 years, though its 5% Y/Y increase was the lowest annual growth rate since the housing recovery began

» Despite this slowing growth, purchase lending hit its highest level since 2006, although volumes remain more than 20% below their 2005 peak

» Refinance lending fell by 27% for the year, and was actually down 44% year-over-year in Q4 2018

» While Q4 saw the lowest quarterly refinance volume in five years, 2018 as a whole was the lowest annual total since 2000

» It should be noted that recent rate softening has increased refinance incentive by 75% from late 2018

FIRST LIEN MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONS FIRST LIEN MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONS – BY QUARTER







MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 15

» While softening rates in early 2019 may lead to increased cash-out lending, they may also reduce the cash-out share of total refinance activity, as rate/term refinances will likely increase as well

» Despite making up the vast majority of refinance lending, just 1.7M cash-out refis were originated in 2018, the lowest such volume since 2015 and down 6% from 1.85M in both 2016 and 2017

» Indeed, while Q4's 400K cash-outs represented the largest share of refinance originations in more than 12 years, it was also the lowest such volume by count in 11 quarters

» The average cash-out amount in Q4 was $70,300, a number that has been rising steadily as has tappable equity the average withdrawal amount; in 2017 was $67,800

82%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cash

-out

Sha

re o

f Firs

t Lie

n Re

fis (B

y Co

unt)

Firs

t Lie

n Re

finan

ce O

rigin

atio

ns in

Mill

ions

FIRST LIEN REFINANCE ACTIVITYCash-out Refi Originations (left axis) Rate/Term Refi Originations Cash-out Share of First Lien Refis (right axis) Of the 483K refinances originated in

Q4, 82% were cash-outs, the largest share since the 2006 peak of 84%


FIRST LIEN REFINANCE ACTIVITY





MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 16

11K 23K48K 40K

18K 10K40K 43K 36K 45K 36K 21K 23K 22K 14K

21K41K 34K

48K38K

47K30K

63K90K 101K

143K141K

86K 87K 77K

50K

10K

11K

14K18K

12K19K

15K

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2002

& P

rior

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

BREAKDOWN OF 2018 CASH-OUT REFINANCES (BY PRIOR LOAN INVESTORY AND VINTAGE)

Private/Other GNMA GSE Portfolio

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sha

re o

f All

Cas

h-ou

t Ref

inan

ce O

rigi

natio

ns

Origination Quarter

RATE INCREASE/DECREASE ON CASH-OUT REFINANCESRate Increase Down 0%-0.49% Down 0.50%-0.99% Down 1.00%-1.49% Down 1.5%+

» Borrowers in 2009 or later vintage mortgages accounted for over 70% of 2018’s 1.7M cash-out refinance originations

» A secondary population of cash-outs come from ‘bubble-era’ originations; approximately 15% were refinancing 2005-2007 vintage loans

» At 65% of total 2018 cash-outs, GSE loans outpaced GNMA cash-outs by more than 3:1; private and portfolio loans accounted for 9% each

» Borrowers with lower unpaid principal balances (UPB) are making up a larger share of cash-out refinances, with the average prior UPB declining from $206K in 2016 to $172K at the end of 2018

» Two-thirds of cash-out transactions involved the borrower raising their first lien interest rate to tap equity, the largest share ever recorded

» This is due not only to overall rising rates, but also to the fact that rising short-term rates are prompting borrowers with low 30-year first lien rates to accept a rate increase rather than take on a HELOC at a considerably higher interest rate

» Resulting post-cash-out LTVs remain low at 67%, but credit scores have begun to decline; the average credit score of a cash-out refinance borrower in Q4 2018 was 732, the lowest it’s been since 2008


BREAKDOWN OF 2018 CASH-OUT REFINANCES(BY PRIOR LOAN INVESTORY AND VINTAGE)

RATE INCREASE/DECREASE ON CASH-OUT REFINANCES






MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 17

Feb-19 Monthly Change

YTD Change

Yearly Change

Delinquencies 3.89% 3.68% 3.68% -9.53%

Foreclosure 0.51% -0.35% -0.35% -21.28%

Foreclosure Starts 40,400 -19.52% -19.52% -13.49%

Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 1.47% -0.42% -0.42% -26.57%

New Originations (data as of Jan-19) 407K -5.6% -5.6% -11.9%

Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Feb-18Delinquencies 3.89% 3.75% 3.88% 3.71% 3.64% 3.97% 3.50% 3.61% 3.74% 3.64% 3.67% 3.73% 4.30%

Foreclosure 0.51% 0.51% 0.52% 0.52% 0.52% 0.52% 0.54% 0.57% 0.56% 0.59% 0.61% 0.63% 0.65%Foreclosure Starts 40,400 50,200 46,300 45,200 50,600 40,000 47,100 48,300 43,500 44,900 49,300 52,100 46,700

Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 1.47% 1.48% 1.51% 1.50% 1.48% 1.51% 1.52% 1.59% 1.63% 1.70% 1.78% 1.86% 2.01%

New Originations 407K 431K 462K 523K 484K 600K 565K 606K 598K 544K 548K 441K

4.30

%

3.73

%

3.67

%

3.64

%

3.74

%

3.61

%

3.50

%

3.97

%

3.64

%

3.71

%

3.88

%

3.75

%

3.89

%

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-1

8Ju

l-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-1

9

Feb-19

TOTAL DELINQUENCIES

441K 54

8K

544K

598K

606K

565K

600K

484K

523K

462K

431K

407K

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-1

8Ju

l-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-1

9

NEW ORIGINATIONS

FEBRUARY 2019 DATA SUMMARY

FEBRUARY 2019 APPENDIX





MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 18

Month TOTAL ACTIVE COUNT 30 DAYS 60 DAYS 90+ DAYS FC Total Non-

Current FC Starts Average Days Delinquent for 90+

Average Days Delinquent for FC

Ratio of 90+ to FC

1/31/05 47,706,128 1,197,062 339,920 458,719 276,745 2,272,446 50,922 242 324 165.8%1/31/06 50,900,620 1,242,434 387,907 542,378 258,613 2,431,332 76,477 207 308 209.7%1/31/07 53,900,458 1,425,030 468,441 551,439 393,973 2,838,883 117,419 203 267 140.0%1/31/08 55,478,782 1,743,420 676,266 950,639 813,560 4,183,885 195,033 190 256 116.8%1/31/09 55,788,441 2,001,314 932,436 1,878,981 1,321,029 6,133,760 250,621 193 323 142.2%1/31/10 55,098,009 1,945,589 903,778 2,972,983 2,068,572 7,890,922 292,308 253 418 143.7%1/31/11 53,861,778 1,750,601 746,634 2,078,130 2,245,250 6,820,615 277,374 333 527 92.6%1/31/12 52,687,781 1,592,463 652,524 1,796,698 2,205,818 6,247,503 223,394 395 666 81.5%1/31/13 51,229,692 1,464,583 587,661 1,551,415 1,742,689 5,346,348 156,654 460 803 89.0%1/31/14 50,380,779 1,341,074 529,524 1,278,955 1,213,046 4,362,599 97,467 486 935 105.4%1/31/15 50,412,744 1,238,453 465,849 1,060,002 884,901 3,649,204 93,280 509 1,031 119.8%1/31/16 50,541,353 1,298,682 444,594 831,284 659,237 3,233,797 71,900 495 1,047 126.1%1/31/17 50,871,357 1,108,712 389,768 663,521 480,598 2,642,599 70,357 454 1,013 138.1%1/31/18 51,155,753 1,083,162 412,676 706,623 336,613 2,539,074 62,312 364 932 209.9%1/31/19 51,896,438 1,074,044 367,750 503,655 264,875 2,210,325 50,196 391 830 190.1%2/28/19 51,952,453 1,154,445 362,974 501,897 264,225 2,283,541 40,353 385 838 190.0%

LOAN COUNTS AND AVERAGE DAYS DELINQUENT






MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 19

State Del % FC % NC %Year/Year Change in

NC%State Del % FC % NC %

Year/Year Change in

NC%State Del % FC % NC %

Year/Year Change in

NC%National 3.9% 0.5% 4.4% -11.0% National 3.9% 0.5% 4.4% -11.0% National 3.9% 0.5% 4.4% -11.0%MS 9.5% 0.6% 10.2% -5.0% TX 4.8% 0.3% 5.1% -21.2% VA 3.7% 0.2% 3.9% 1.7%LA* 7.4% 0.9% 8.3% -9.2% IL* 4.3% 0.7% 5.0% 5.9% NE* 3.6% 0.3% 3.9% 11.0%AL 6.6% 0.4% 7.0% -7.2% TN 4.7% 0.3% 5.0% -11.1% NH 3.6% 0.3% 3.9% -7.0%WV 5.9% 0.6% 6.4% -7.7% VT* 3.9% 1.1% 4.9% -3.5% AK 3.3% 0.3% 3.6% -5.4%AR 5.7% 0.5% 6.2% -1.9% OH* 4.2% 0.7% 4.9% -9.6% NV 2.9% 0.6% 3.5% -10.1%RI 5.2% 0.8% 6.0% -5.4% FL* 4.0% 0.9% 4.9% -40.6% WY 3.2% 0.3% 3.4% -10.4%ME* 4.6% 1.4% 6.0% -7.0% NC 4.4% 0.4% 4.8% -3.1% AZ 2.9% 0.2% 3.1% -6.4%IN* 5.1% 0.8% 5.9% -5.2% NM* 3.8% 0.8% 4.7% -8.6% SD* 2.6% 0.4% 2.9% 2.9%NY* 4.3% 1.5% 5.8% -5.4% KS* 4.2% 0.5% 4.7% -4.7% MN 2.5% 0.2% 2.7% 4.4%CT* 4.8% 0.9% 5.7% -3.0% HI* 3.1% 1.4% 4.5% -7.3% UT 2.6% 0.2% 2.7% -10.2%OK* 4.8% 0.9% 5.7% -6.5% KY* 3.8% 0.6% 4.4% -9.5% MT 2.4% 0.3% 2.7% -1.1%MD* 5.1% 0.6% 5.7% -0.4% MO 4.0% 0.3% 4.3% -4.5% CA 2.4% 0.2% 2.6% -7.6%PA* 4.9% 0.8% 5.6% -10.0% MA 3.7% 0.5% 4.3% -10.0% ND* 2.0% 0.6% 2.6% 1.9%GA 5.2% 0.3% 5.6% -8.7% MI 3.9% 0.2% 4.1% -8.2% ID 2.1% 0.2% 2.3% -11.3%DE* 4.7% 0.8% 5.5% -8.3% DC 3.5% 0.6% 4.1% 15.1% WA 2.0% 0.3% 2.3% -8.8%SC* 4.8% 0.6% 5.4% -5.8% IA* 3.5% 0.6% 4.1% 1.2% OR 2.0% 0.3% 2.2% -12.0%NJ* 4.4% 0.9% 5.2% -12.6% WI* 3.4% 0.5% 3.9% -5.4% CO 1.9% 0.1% 2.0% -4.1%

* - Indicates Judicial State

STATE-BY-STATE RANKINGS BY NON-CURRENT LOAN POPULATION






MORTGAGE MONITOR

FEBRUARY 2019 | 20

Mortgage Monitor Disclosures

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FEBRUARY 2019 DISCLOSURE



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