Morris County: Demographic and Economic Trends€¦ · Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers...

Morris County:

Demographic and

Economic Trends

Presentation to the Morris County Planning Board

January 16, 2020

164,371

261,620

383,454

407,630

421,361

470,212492,276

494,228

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

2018

Morris County is Growing - Slowly

Population Trends, 1950 - 2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and

Population Estimates Program

2

6.6%

1.3%

0.4%

-5.7%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%



Nearly Half Of All Counties Are Experiencing Population Declines

Percent Population Change: New Jersey Counties 2010 - 2018

3

11.0

10.4

9.9

9.59.3 9.2

9.49.5

9.4 9.5

9.2

12.9

12.5

12.112.0

11.7 11.6 11.611.5

11.611.4 11.4

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Morris County

New Jersey

The Birth Rate Has Been Dropping

Birth Rate per Thousand, 2008 - 2018 Morris County vs. New Jersey

Source: New Jersey Department of Health 4



Vital Events Net Migration

Population

Change

Natural

IncreaseBirths Deaths Total International Domestic

Morris

County1,914 7,734 38,576 30,842 -5,743 11,355 -17,098

New

Jersey 116,558 256,493 852,207 595,714 -140,088 302,522 -442,610

Population Growth Driven by International Migration

Components of Population Change 2010 – 2018

5

Where the Movers Are MovingCounty Migration

Flow to Morris County Flow from Morris County

Residence from… Residence to…

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

2013 – 2017 ACS

Morris County 16,970 45.0% Morris County 16,970 40.3%

Essex County 1,754 4.7% Sussex County 1,468 3.5%

Passaic County 1,746 4.6% Passaic County 1,370 3.3%

Bergen County 1,504 4.0% Essex County 1,224 2.9%

Union County 1,304 3.5% Warren County 1,001 2.4%

Hudson County 1,140 3.0% Somerset County 998 2.4%

Other 13,271 35.2% Other 19,029 45.2%

6

Most Morris County Municipalities Lost Population Percent Population Change from 2010 to 2018

Source: U.S. Census

Bureau, Decennial

Census and Population

Estimates Program7

Population Becoming More Diverse

Morris County Population by Race & Hispanic Origin

2010 Census 2018 Census 2034 NJLWD

Percent of Total

Population

Percent of Total

Population

Percent of Total

Population

Not Hispanic or Latino

White 75.1% 70.5% 63.7%

Black or African

American 2.9% 3.4% 3.4%

Asian 8.9% 10.5% 14.0%

Other 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Two or more races 1.4% 1.7% 2.4%

Hispanic or Latino 11.5% 13.7% 16.5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, American Community Survey,

and N.J. Dept. of Labor & Workforce Development 8

We Are Also Getting Older

1970 1980 1990 2000 20102018

28.1

31.935.2

37.8

41.342.7Median Age

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018

7.4%

8.8%

10.5%11.6%

13.8%

17.1%Population over Age 65

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census

and American Community Survey9

37.1%

44.6%

50.1%53.3% 54.3%

57.8%

38.2% 38.6% 38.2%35.3% 34.1% 32.7%

24.6%16.9%

11.6% 11.4% 11.6%9.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1-2 person household

3-4-person household

5 + person household

2018

2018

Changes in % Household Size

One & Two Person Households Are Dominant


American Community Survey

2018

10

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000


Housing Values Are Among the Highest in N.J.

Median Housing Value, 2018

11

Where Median Housing Values Are Highest and Lowest

Median Value – Owner Occupied Housing Units

Source: U.S. Census Bureau,


2014 – 2018 ACS

Municipality

Median

Value

Harding $1,059,800

Chatham Twp. $909,700

Mendham Twp. $858,100

Mountain Lakes $849,100

Chatham Boro. $739,100

Wharton $294,400

Mine Hill $294,300

Netcong $267,100

Dover $265,200

Victory Gardens $171,500

12

Housing Values Rebound for Many But Not AllChange in Median Value - Owner Occupied Housing Units

Source: 2009 - 2013 and

2014 - 2018 ACS

U.S. Census Bureau,

American Community

Survey

For the 2009 - 2013 ACS,

values greater than $1 million

were reported as $1,000,000+,

as a result, no comparison is

possible for Harding. 13

$1,478$1,456

$1,188

$848

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600


Rental Housing Costs are Among the Highest in N.J.

Median Contract Rent, 2018

14

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000


Household Income is Among the Highest in N.J.

Median Household Income, 2018

15

Source: United Way of Northern New Jersey

United Way’s “ALICE” in Morris County

16

Where Median Household Income is Highest and Lowest

Median Household Income

Source: U.S. Census Bureau,


2014 – 2018 ACS

Municipality

Median

Household

Income

Mountain Lakes $216,250

Chatham Twp. $182,619

Mendham Twp. $182,022

Chatham Boro. $169,524

Chester Twp. $160,625

Mount Olive $86,340

Dover $70,412

Wharton $69,271

Netcong $62,639

Victory Gardens $49,196

17

$29,194

$81,500

$216,400

$257,400

$444,100$469,900

$12,758 $26,626$56,273

$77,340$91,469

$112,288

7.38%

13.74%

10.13%

8.05%

4.69% 4.54%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Median Housing Value Median Household Income Interest Rate

2018

2018

2018

Housing Costs Have Risen Much Faster Than Income

Median Housing Value vs. Median Household Income in Morris County


American Community Survey and FreddieMac

NOTE: Prior year incomes not

inflation adjusted.

Interest Rate: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rate for

1970 is from 1972, earliest annual year data found18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


Education Levels Are Among the Highest in the State

Percent Bachelor's Degree or Higher, 2018

19

3.3%

3.9%

2.3%2.5%

4.3%

5.0%

2.9%

3.3%3.9%

4.5%

3.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

NOV2017

DEC2017

JAN2018

FEB2018

MAR2018

APR2018

MAY2018

JUN2018

JUL2018

AUG2018

SEP2018

OCT2018

NOV2018

DEC2018

JAN2019

FEB2019

MAR2019

APR2019

MAY2019

JUN2019

JUL2019

AUG2019

SEP2019

OCT2019

NOV2019

Morris County

New Jersey

United States

Sources: N.J. Dept. of Labor and Workforce Dev. _U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment is Comparatively Low

Unemployment Rate, November 2017 – November 2019

20

Morris County Residents by

Occupation


2000 2018

Management,Business,

Science,and Arts

Service

Salesand

Office

NaturalResources,

Construction,and Maintenance

Production, Transportation,

and MaterialMoving

6.7%

47.7%

10.1%

27.4

8.1%

Management,Business,

Science,and Arts

Service

Salesand

Office

NaturalResources,

Construction,and Maintenance

Production,Transportation,

and MaterialMoving

5.4%6.3%

54.4%

11.8%

22.1%

21

Much Anticipated Job Growth is in Lower Salary OccupationsNet New Jobs by Occupation (2016-2026)* and 2017 Average Salary

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers

Nursing Assistants

Janitors/Cleaners, Except Maids/Housekeeping

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

Registered Nurses

Waiters and Waitresses

Laborers/Freight, Stock, and Material Movers

Food Prep/Serving Workers

Home Health Aides

Software Developers, Applications

Net New Jobs

* Top 10 Net Job OpeningsSource: NJLWD

$113,300

$23,300

$22,900

$29,100

$29,900

$84,400

$38,900

$31,300

$30,000

$30,000

22

38,817

36,878

28,478

24,410

21,334

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Professional andTechnicalServices

Health Care andSocial Assistance

Retail Trade Administrativeand WasteServices

Accommodationand FoodServices

$138,216 $62,608 $36,400 $56,264 $39,052

Top Private Sector Industries by Employment, 2018

Source:

NJLWD

Average

Annual

Wage

2018

23

5,3605,090

3,770

2,450 2,450

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Health Care and

Social Assistance

Professional,

Scientific, and

Technical Services

Accommodation

and Food Services

Construction Administrative and

Support and Waste

Mgmt/Remediation

Top Growth Industries by Projected Employment Increase

2016 - 2026

Source: N.J. Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development24

-740

-970

-1,260-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0Government Information Manufacturing

Industries Projected to Decline in Employment

2016 - 2026

Source: N.J. Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development25



Vital Events Net Migration

Population

Change

Natural

IncreaseBirths Deaths Total International Domestic

-3,835 23,778 99,501 75,723 -27,662 21,284 -48,946

New Jersey’s Population Down in 2019

Components of Population Change 2018 – 2019

26

NJ Total Population Dropped from 8,886,025 in 2018 to

8,882,190 in 2019 (-.04%)

Summary of Findings

Population Growing Slowly, Getting Older, More Diverse

International Migration Drops, Recent Driver of Population Growth

Highly Educated Workforce Results in High Incomes

Housing Value / Income Ratio Expanded Over Decades

Housing Costs Among Highest in State

Projected Job Growth in Low Paid Occupations

27

Morris County: Demographic and Economic Trends€¦ · Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers...

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