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3-Sep-2013

Morning Matters

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WHAT’S INSIDE

On The Platter

Thai Oil (TOP TB; FVTHB69.1-Buy (from Neutral): Stronger 2H13 Ahead, Spreads Expected To Improve

Thai Oil (TOP)’s share price has declined to an attractive level that does not reflect the strong fundamentals of its refinery and petrochemicals divisions. We expect stronger earnings for both these units over the next six months as we enter into the festive and winter seasons. We upgrade TOP to BUY (from NEUTRAL), with our TP unchanged at THB69.14, based on 1.5x 2013 P/BV.

MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

TV signal interference flares tempers

Golden Land plots fresh start

SCG Paper, NPI collate deal

CP in running for Hong Kong's ParknShop supermarket chain

Tourism remains bright spot amid economic gloom, experts say

Thailand 'still attractive'

ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

India: Rupee’s Plunge Prompts Refiner to Embrace Iran

India Slowdown Pressures Singh to Bolster Lowest BRIC Reserves

Asia: Worst Is Over for Asia’s Emerging Markets

U.K.: U.K. Manufacturing Surges as Euro-Area Recovery Builds

Indonesia: Indonesia’s Trade Gap Widens to Record as Inflation Quickens

SET Intra-Day Graph

Source: Bloomberg

Key Market Indices (2 September 2013)

Value Chg % Chg % YTD

SET 1323.70 29.40 2.3% -4.9%

SET50 903.50 20.52 2.3% -4.4%

SET100 1982.74 46.41 2.4% -4.6%

Dow Jones 14810.31 UNCHG UNCHG 13.0%

S&P500 1632.97 UNCHG UNCHG 14.5%

Nasdaq 3589.87 UNCHG UNCHG 18.9%

FTSE 6506.19 93.26 1.5% 10.3%

FSSTI 3055.72 26.78 0.9% -3.5%

Hang Seng 22175.34 443.97 2.0% -2.1%

Nikkei 13877.18 458.15 3.4% 33.5%

KLCI 1717.56 -10.02 -0.6% 1.7%

SHANGHAI SE 2098.45 0.07 0.0% -7.5%

JCI 4101.23 -93.85 -2.2% -5.0%

SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F

PE (x) 13.9 14.6 12.9

P/BV (x) 1.8 2.1 2.0

Yield (%) 4.1 3.3 3.5

Key Statistics

SET Value by investor Type: Daily

Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm)

Institution 3,573.60 2,775.85 797.74

Proprietary 6,752.77 5,817.08 935.69

Foreign 7,300.52 8,710.42 -1,409.89

Retail 16,585.74 16,909.28 -323.54

SET Value by investor Type

MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 797.74 72,065.28

Proprietary 935.69 -9,874.55

Foreign -1,409.89 -117,435.21

Retail -323.54 55,244.48

SET50 Index Future

Long Short Net MTD YTD

Institution 8,494 8,564 -70 -70 20,371

Foreign 3,784 3,173 611 611 -21,160

Local 11,340 11,881 -541 -541 789

Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%) -44.0 -44.0 -3,810.5 -285.7

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Media Highlights

TV signal interference flares tempers

Satellite set-top box operators called on the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) to act as a middleman to solve technical problems between Thaicom Plc and CAT Telecom, which has disrupted signals for many channels. After the Thaicom 6 satellite was launched on Aug 1 via the temporary satellite AsiaSat, many TV channels began changing their signal transmissions from Thaicom 5 to Thaicom 6. Channel 7 and Channel 11 (two free TV channels) began the exodus last Saturday, while satellite TV channels on RS Sunbox and GMM Z set-top box systems followed on Sunday. Viewers using the satellite TV systems provided by PSI Holdings, Infosat, and Dynasat cannot watch these channels. Some 64% of 22 million households in Thailand watch TV via satellite systems, reported Nielsen Company. An industry source said the problem is caused by signal interference. (Bangkok Post) Golden Land plots fresh start

SET-listed Golden Land Property Development Plc aims to clear its non-performing assets (NPAs) and build a new team

before resuming fast growth next year. President Thanapol Sirithanachai said the company wants to sell non-core properties

and all NPAs by 2014 as it needs to focus on commercial and residential property business. "We have not set any business

target this year so that we can spend time restructuring the organisation and building our management team to prepare for an

aggressive move in 2014," he said. The company's non-core assets and NPAs are valued at 1.2 billion baht. Its key non-core

asset is the Panorama Golf and Country Club on a 2,090-rai plot in Sikhiu, Nakhon Ratchasima, worth 693 million baht. Its

NPAs include large vacant plots in many locations including 118 rai in Krabi's Nong Thalay, 212 rai in Prachuap Khiri Khan's

Thap Sakae, 40 rai in Rayong's Ban Chang and 30 rai in Chiang Rai's Chiang Khong. (Bangkok Post)

SCG Paper, NPI collate deal

SCG Paper, the pulp and paper business unit of Thailand's largest industrial conglomerate, has joined hands with Japanese

paper manufacturer Nippon Paper Industries (NPI) to boost its competitiveness and secure a leading position in Asean. A

memorandum of understanding was signed yesterday. Kan Trakulhoon, president and chief executive of SCG Group, said

NPI will be allowed to hold a 30% stake in SCG Paper's fibrous chain business. The transaction is expected to be concluded

in the second quarter next year. The partners previously co-invested in a 43,000-tonne-per-year machine-glazed paper plant

worth 2.2 billion baht. The plant is under construction and is expected to start up in mid-2014. "This partnership between SCG

Paper and NPI will create an effective synergistic platform that enhances production efficiency, new product development,

marketing and the sales network," Mr Kan said. (Bangkok Post)

CP in running for Hong Kong's ParknShop supermarket chain

Dhanin Chearavanont, Thailand's richest man, is moving towards placing another piece in the jigsaw as he grows his retail business regionally, with Charoen Pokphand's bid for Hong Kong's ParknShop supermarket chain. Dominating the convenience-store segment in Thailand through CP All, which operates about 8,000 7-Eleven outlets, Dhanin has set his sights on expanding throughout Asia with the ParknShop brand. CP All, Dhanin's retail arm, in April spent Bt189 billion to take over Thailand's leading cash-and-carry wholesale business, Siam Makro, which would mainly be used as a new distribution channel to export products from small and medium-sized enterprises as well as agricultural goods, such as fresh and frozen produce, to ASEAN countries. A retail expert who declined to be named said Charoen Pokphand Group's bid for Hutchison Whampoa's chain of ParknShop stores would allow CP to have a larger retail network in the region. (The Nation) Tourism remains bright spot amid economic gloom, experts say

The outlook for tourism, a key industry helping to prop up the Thai economy, is still bright despite the global and national economic uncertainties, according to economists. Thailand is still one of the top value-for-money destinations in the region. To cash in on the creation of the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015, the country should link up with neighbouring nations while positioning itself as the hub, observers say. The government's goal of Bt2.2 trillion in tourism revenue by 2015 will not be difficult to attain. According to the Tourism Authority of Thailand, the country will welcome 24.5 million foreign visitors this year. Associate Professor Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a former senator and former vice rector of Thammasat University, said yesterday that the world's economic trend in the second half of this year would be positive, especially for the three biggest markets - Europe, the United States and China. In Europe, the austerity measures are producing results. However, for the whole year, the region will suffer a decline. (The Nation) Thailand 'still attractive'

Kingdom's fundamentals intact, good for long-term investment: expert Thai and Asian stock markets would be under downward pressure for a while, but Thailand remains an attractive destination for long-term investment, Jason Cox, co-head of Asia-Pacific global capital markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in an exclusive interview to The Nation. Though the stock market fell steeply in the past week and the baht also weakened on capital outflows from emerging economies, Cox sees this situation as a technical issue rather than a weakening of economic fundamentals. The National Economic and Social Development Board reported that the Thai economy was entering technical recession after contracting for two consecutive quarters on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The Commerce Ministry revealed that exports had contracted 1.5 per cent in July, while the Bank of Thailand reported that the current-account deficit in the second quarter was equivalent to 5.1 per cent of GDP. (The Nation)

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Economic Highlights

India: Rupee’s Plunge Prompts Refiner to Embrace Iran

India is increasing imports of crude oil from Iran as policy makers risk flouting U.S. trade sanctions in their scramble to halt the

slump in the rupee. Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. (MRPL), India’s biggest buyer of Iranian crude, plans to buy five

cargoes of 85,000 metric tons each this month, compared with three in August, Managing Director P.P. Upadhya said in an

interview. Shipments from the world’s only producer that accepts rupee payments for oil are estimated to rise to 4 million tons

in the year ending March 31, versus 3.9 million tons in the previous 12 months. India is among a few countries eligible for a

waiver of a U.S. law that imposes financial sanctions unless they can show they have “significantly reduced” purchases from

the Persian Gulf country. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is seeking options to revive the $1.8 trillion economy, which relies

on imports to meet 80 percent of its energy needs, as he struggles to stem capital outflows that have weakened the rupee by

17 percent this year against the dollar. (Bloomberg)

India Slowdown Pressures Singh to Bolster Lowest BRIC Reserves

India’s weakest economic growth since 2009 escalates pressure on the government to increase the smallest foreign-exchange

reserves among BRIC nations, as policy makers struggle to contain a sliding rupee. The reserves have dropped 13 percent to

$278 billion since a peak in 2011 and are equivalent to less than seven months of imports. Bank of America Merrill Lynch

estimates India needs as much as 10 months of import cover for currency stability, a figure still about half the average in Brazil,

Russia and China. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s potential options to shore up confidence in the rupee include issuing

India’s first dollar sovereign bonds, a deposit program to tap the country’s diaspora and bilateral currency-swap agreements.

Boosting reserves could avoid the need to support the currency with further interest-rate increases that risk damaging efforts to

revive investment. (Bloomberg)

Asia: Worst Is Over for Asia’s Emerging Markets

The worst may be over for Asian emerging markets, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604), after investors pulled billions of

dollars last month on concern the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting back bond purchases. The outlook for Asian emerging

markets remains “very positive” over the next 5 to 10 years as the amount of investments by funds in these countries will likely

have to catch up with the growing size of their economies, he said in Singapore on Aug. 30. A gauge of Chinese manufacturing

index rose to its highest level in 16 months in August as new orders jumped, adding to evidence that growth in the world’s

second-largest economy is strengthening after a two-quarter slowdown, according to a government report over the weekend.

The Philippine economy expanded above 7 percent for a fourth straight quarter in the three months to June, a separate report

showed. The positive outlook for Asian emerging markets provides an opportunity for Nomura outside Japan, a key market,

Ashley said. The number of Nomura clients in Asia ex-Japan for the global markets division doubled in the past three years, he

said. (Bloomberg)

U.K.: U.K. Manufacturing Surges as Euro-Area Recovery Builds

A U.K. factory index increased to a 2 1/2-year high in August, while a pickup in Italy and Spain helped euro-area manufacturing

expand faster than initially estimated, evidence the region’s recovery is building momentum. The British gauge climbed to 57.2

from 54.8 in July, Markit Economics said today in London. That’s above the 50 level signaling growth. Markit’s euro-area

factory measure rose to 51.4 from 50.3 in July, it said, above an estimate of 51.3 published on Aug. 22. Two indexes of

manufacturing in China also rose in August. Strengthening global factory activity is helping exports and the U.K. improvement

suggests the economy picked up momentum into the third quarter after gross domestic product grew 0.7 percent in the

previous period. The Bank of England will probably keep policy unchanged this week amid growing investor doubts that

Governor Mark Carney and officials can keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low for three years. (Bloomberg)

Indonesia: Indonesia’s Trade Gap Widens to Record as Inflation Quickens

Indonesia unexpectedly reported a record trade deficit while inflation accelerated further, renewing pressure on policy makers

as they grapple with a slumping currency. Stocks and the rupiah fell. The trade gap in July was $2.3 billion, the biggest on

record, according to the Statistics Bureau, and exceeding all 16 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Consumer prices rose 8.79

percent in August from a year earlier, a separate report showed. The increase was the greatest since January 2009, and

compared with the 8.95 percent median in a survey. The numbers showed the challenge for Indonesia, which joins emerging

economies from Brazil to Turkey and India in taking steps to support currencies as the prospect of reduced U.S. monetary

stimulus spurs a sell-off in their markets. Bank Indonesia raised its reference rate by half a percentage point at an unscheduled

meeting last week, while the government said Aug. 23 it will allow more mineral exports this year and increase a luxury-goods

tax to narrow the trade gap. (Bloomberg)

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Outperform

Current Target Upside/

Recc. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013f 2013f

ADVANC Buy 249.00 319.00 28.1 19.6 5.1

AOT Buy 169.00 222.00 31.4 22.4 1.8

BTS Trading Buy 8.10 10.20 25.9 37.4 6.7

INTUCH Trading Buy 79.25 104.00 31.2 16.8 5.4

PTT Buy 326.00 388.00 19.0 8.3 4.2

PTTGC Buy 68.75 82.10 19.4 9.2 4.9 .

Underperform

Current Target Upside/

Recc. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013f 2013f

AP Neutral 5.10 6.30 14.0 5.9 3.7

KTB Buy 17.00 28.30 66.5 7.9 4.5

TCAP Neutral 31.75 41.00 29.1 4.2 4.2

TISCO Sell 36.75 41.00 11.6 6.9 7.0

Rank Symbol Rank Symbol2-Sep 30-Aug 29-Aug 28-Aug 27-Aug 2-Sep 30-Aug 29-Aug 28-Aug 27-Aug

1 ADVANC 403.9 53.6 (201.8) (150.0) (83.8) 1 TMB (135.4) 6.2 (43.1) 10.8 5.0

2 INTUCH 338.0 258.6 253.1 (196.0) 2.9 2 LH (58.9) 106.4 28.0 (126.8) (1.7)

3 SCB 122.8 (47.1) 33.1 (36.8) (106.9) 3 THCOM (29.8) (22.0) (34.7) (10.4) 0.7

4 AOT 86.9 216.8 39.9 (55.8) (55.6) 4 KBANK (29.6) 22.9 (231.9) (2.1) 283.0

5 CPALL 63.6 253.1 (66.9) (207.7) (173.8) 5 PTTEP (20.6) (99.9) (123.3) 945.4 13.6

6 BANPU 52.2 25.5 37.5 (76.1) 64.1 6 SCC (18.5) 92.3 103.9 (269.4) (321.3)

7 BBL 35.9 (46.2) (180.4) (193.2) 42.1 7 IRPC (17.7) (5.2) (8.1) 0.4 (4.8)

8 MINT 35.8 106.6 6.4 (9.3) (18.2) 8 TOP (16.0) (14.7) 0.4 (0.8) 13.5

9 BEC 30.2 10.4 (2.8) (7.3) (41.9) 9 QH (13.2) (0.1) (7.7) (4.2) (12.0)

10 BTS 27.1 32.4 (1.1) (78.9) 27.2 10 THAI (12.5) (2.2) (9.4) (12.6) 1.8

11 DTAC 24.1 55.0 4.0 (128.6) (30.0) 11 GLOBAL (11.8) (8.4) (24.5) (35.5) (4.8)

12 DELTA 22.3 (0.7) 1.7 8.7 (4.7) 12 TCAP (10.5) (14.2) 0.3 (8.1) 10.7

13 BAY 19.7 57.7 (211.6) 743.8 (440.0) 13 SIRI (8.0) (4.5) (22.0) (1.1) (9.3)

14 PTT 19.4 245.8 512.1 43.1 (151.6) 14 IVL (6.6) 3.2 (31.7) 15.3 13.2

15 TUF 16.5 (32.7) 13.5 (76.2) 7.2 15 STA (6.4) (4.4) (2.2) 1.4 (0.9)

16 MAJOR 15.8 106.1 9.3 3.7 14.2 16 AAV (5.3) (0.4) (6.4) (9.4) (1.2)

17 CPN 13.6 129.0 15.7 (137.3) 22.0 17 HEMRAJ (5.1) (0.2) 1.6 5.2 (13.7)

18 BIGC 13.2 24.6 23.9 (8.9) 9.7 18 TTCL (5.0) 8.4 2.8 (0.8) 8.0

19 BH 12.5 13.6 (63.1) (4.2) (1.4) 19 TPIPL (4.4) (0.5) (1.5) (0.1) (1.0)

20 MCOT 11.6 4.8 (7.1) (0.2) (12.3) 20 PS (4.4) (0.9) (2.8) (2.2) (6.3)

% No.of Shars

Symbol BUY SELL Total NET Turnover Symbol In Hand

1 BBL 415.4 379.5 794.9 35.9 40.7 1 TISCO-P 0.02 0.03 66.2

2 INTUCH 438.6 100.6 539.3 338.0 14.9 2 BBL 574.5 1,908.8 30.1

3 KBANK 253.1 282.8 535.9 (29.6) 19.1 3 KBANK 632.7 2,393.3 26.4

4 ADVANC 454.1 50.2 504.2 403.9 14.9 4 INTUCH 733.2 3,206.4 22.9

5 BANPU 169.6 117.4 287.0 52.2 10.8 5 SPALI 374.9 1,716.6 21.8

6 BAY 149.5 129.8 279.3 19.7 14.6 6 E-W1 74.7 347.0 21.5

7 LH 51.4 110.3 161.7 (58.9) 34.8 7 GOLD-W1 74.2 392.1 18.9

8 TMB 9.9 145.3 155.3 (135.4) 6.8 8 THRE 635.5 3,512.5 18.1

9 SCB 137.9 15.1 153.1 122.8 6.1 9 LH 1,791.7 10,025.9 17.9

10 PTTEP 57.6 78.2 135.8 (20.6) 11.0 10 LPN 250.5 1,475.7 0.0

11 SCC 54.7 73.2 127.9 (18.5) 11.0 11 TWFP 1.6 9.5 16.7

12 AOT 101.5 14.6 116.1 86.9 12.0 12 DTAC 367.6 2,367.8 15.5

13 BIGC 50.8 37.6 88.4 13.2 43.8 13 TCAP 197.1 1,277.8 15.4

14 CPALL 75.2 11.7 86.9 63.6 4.2 14 AP 426.3 2,859.9 14.9

15 PTT 49.9 30.5 80.4 19.4 5.6 15 THIP 1.2 8.0 14.5

16 JAS 39.3 37.2 76.5 2.1 3.0 16 BAY 856.4 6,074.1 14.1

17 BTS 46.6 19.5 66.0 27.1 5.7 17 LALIN 115.4 825.0 14.0

18 CPF 30.5 34.1 64.6 (3.6) 9.9 18 NMG-W3 218.4 1,647.7 13.3

19 MAJOR 37.9 22.1 60.0 15.8 20.1 19 PRANDA 53.9 406.7 13.3

20 BEC 42.3 12.1 54.4 30.2 16.5 20 GBX 139.1 1,089.1 12.8

Source: SET,RHB OSK

Top 20 Net SellNVDR Net Sell Value (Bt mn)

NVDR Daily Trading by Stock

Top 20 Net BuyNVDR Net Buy Value (Bt mn)

Capital Shares

Paid Up Capital % of Paid Up

--------------NVDR Most Active Values (Bt m)--------------- -----------NVDR Outstanding Share (m shares)-----------

See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM

Platform 1

Company Update, 2 September 2013

Thai Oil (TOP TB) Buy (from Neutral) Energy - Oil & Gas Target Price: THB69.1

Market Cap: USD3,458m Price: THB54.5

Stronger 2H13 Ahead, Spreads Expected To Improve

Macro

2.00

Risks

2.00

Growth

2.00

Value

2.00

62

71

80

89

98

107

52

57

62

67

72

77

Thai Oil (TOP TB)Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

5

10

15

20

25

30

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Vo

l m

Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 403m/12.9m

Cons. Upside (%) 46.1

Upside (%) 26.8

52-wk Price low/high (THB) 54.5 - 75.8

Free float (%) 50

Shareholders (%)

PTT Pcl. 49.1

Thai NVDR 7.1

State Street Bank Europe Limited

3.7

Shariah compliant

Kannika Siamwalla, CFA 66 2862 9744

Licence No.23517 kannika.si@th.oskgroup.com

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover (THBm) 318,391 446,241 447,432 412,069 412,069

Reported net profit (THBm) 8,956 14,853 12,320 12,463 12,815

Recurring net profit (THBm) 8,956 14,853 12,320 12,463 12,815

Recurring net profit growth (%) (25.7) 65.8 (17.1) 1.2 2.8

Core EPS (THB) 4.39 7.28 6.04 6.11 6.28

DPS (THB) 2.00 3.30 2.42 2.44 2.51

Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 6.1 4.4 4.5 4.6

Core P/E (x) 12.4 7.5 9.0 8.9 8.7

Return on average equity (%) 13.1 19.9 14.8 13.8 13.1

P/B (x) 1.58 1.40 1.28 1.18 1.09

P/CF (x) 10.0 7.9 41.4 73.0 3.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.62 5.22 6.90 6.05 5.97

Net debt to equity (%) 15.5 31.0 20.3 30.3 26.0

Our vs consensus EPS (%) (13.5) (10.9)

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Thai Oil (TOP)’s share price has declined to an attractive level that does not reflect the strong fundamentals of its refinery and petrochemicals divisions. We expect stronger earnings for both these units over the next six months as we enter into the festive and winter seasons. We upgrade TOP to BUY (from NEUTRAL), with our TP unchanged at THB69.14, based on 1.5x 2013 P/BV.

Upgrade to BUY. We believe TOP’s current share price is a good entry

point for investors as it has declined to attractive levels, offering a decent dividend yield of 4%. The stock is trading at 9x P/E and 1.2x P/BV, compared to regional trading multiples of 69x P/E and 1.89x P/BV respectively. As TOP is now below its mean SD of 1.5x P/BV, we believe it should be moving towards its mean SD trading band over the next 3-6 months. We upgrade the stock to a BUY, with a THB69.14 TP, based on 1.5x 2013 P/BV.

Fundamentals improve in 2H13. We believe TOP's fundamentals will

improve in 2H13. As fluctuating tensions in the Middle East will keep crude oil prices on the higher end of our expected range of USD100-110/bbl for the remaining part of this year, this should lead to stock gains for the refineries. The seasonally higher demand for refined products has improved the refining spreads of each product (quarter to day). Paraxylene (PX) spread is stronger than expected, due to the delay in the start-up of some PX plants around the region. Benzene spreads are expected to soften slightly due to lower plant turnaround within the region, while lube base spreads are supported by low high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) prices. All of TOP’s plants are expected to run at optimal capacity in 2H13.

Constant improvements. TOP constantly looks to improve its existing

facilities and seeks investment opportunities domestically and regionally. It is revamping several of its plants in 2013, boosting efficiency and product yields. Total capex is forecasted at USD1.7bn for 2013-15, with the largest cash outflow of USD629.8m in 2013. It is also looking at strategic investment potential in three countries: Myanmar, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Thai Oil (TOP TB) 2 September 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Upgrade to BUY TP maintained.

We believe the current share price, at 9x P/E and 1.2x P/BV, is a good entry point for this company as it also provides a decent dividend yield of 4%. In comparison, the regional trading multiples are 69x P/E and 1.89x P/BV. TOP is now trading at below its mean SD of 1.5x P/BV but we believe it should be moving towards its mean SD trading band over the next 3-6 months. Fundamentally, we expect 2H13 earnings to be boosted as a result of stock gains from higher crude oil price (relative to 2Q13), improved gross refining margins and relatively stable petrochemicals business. We upgrade this stock to BUY, with a TP of THB69.14, based on 1.5x FY13 P/BV.

Figure 1: Forward SD P/BV

Source: RHB estimates

Improving fundamentals in 2H13

Elevated crude oil prices on Middle East tension volatility. We believe that the

on-again-off-again Middle East tension will keep crude oil prices on the higher end of our expected range of USD100-110/bbl for the remaining part of this year. Fundamentally, the rapid rise in crude oil prices will cause a narrowing of petrochemical margins, as costs rise faster than the end-product prices. However, as demand for petrochemical products is projected to remain healthy for the rest of this year, we believe that overall end-product prices will also increase to reflect the higher costs, thus leveling the petrochemical margins for this year.

Crude oil price up, stock gains. Crude oil settled at USD100.2/bbl at end-2Q13.

We expect prices to end higher in 3Q13. Crude oil prices had already edged up to USD108/bbl, as 3Q is a seasonally stronger quarter and as tensions in the Middle East brews up again. We expect stock gains to be recorded in 3Q13 and if the Middle East tension does not simmer down, there will be potentially more gains in 4Q13. We forecast an average crude oil price of USD105/bbl for the full year, without taking into consideration the impact of the Middle East tension.

Product spreads up, improved refinery earnings. Product spreads to Dubai for jet,

diesel and gasoline have all edged up quarter to date. This should lead to overall improvement in TOP’s gross refining margin (GRM), as these three products make up as much as 74% of its total refinery output. The improved product spreads was a result of steady high demand during summer in Europe, Middle East and US. Moreover, there were also refinery outages in India and Taiwan from end-May to August.

Petrochemicals margin relatively stable, hence stable earnings. Paraxylene-

ULG95 spreads were stronger in 3Q13 than expected. This was a result of continued strong demand for polyester in Asia and as the commissioning of new PX plants are delayed due to technical issues. Benzene spread is expected to be softer in 3Q13, with higher supply coming from China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)'s new 160k-ton capacity olefin cracker plant. In the meantime, downside should be limited in view of the incoming seasonal demand for Styrene Monomer (SM) while lube base spreads is supported by continued lower high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) prices.

Thai Oil (TOP TB) 2 September 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Figure 2: Crude oil price rises

Figure 3: Refining product spreads improve

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 YTD

Crude oil price

WTI Brent Dubai

USD/bbl

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

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25

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 QTD

Refining product spreads

Jet-Dubai Diesel-Dubai

USD/bbl

Source: Bloomberg Source: PTTGC

Figure 4: Paraxylene spread stronger than expected…

Figure 5: …due to the delay in PX supply in 2013

Source: TOP Source: TOP

Figure 6: Benzene spread to soften…

Figure 7: …due to less planned shutdowns in 2H13

Source: TOPRHB estimates Source: TOP

Thai Oil (TOP TB) 2 September 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Figure 8: Weak HSFO to support bitumen spread

Figure 9: Sensitivity of THB to USD

THB/USD 20 25 30 35 40

(THB m)

Revenue 284,648 348,359 412,069 475,779 539,489

% ch. -31% -15% 0% 15% 31%

EBITDA 6,846 15,288 23,729 32,171 40,612

% ch. -71% -36% 0% 36% 71%

Net profit 12,720 12,768 12,815 12,863 12,911

% ch. -1% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Source: TOP Source: RHB estimates

Thai Oil (TOP TB) 2 September 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

Financial Exhibits

Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover 318,391 446,241 447,432 412,069 412,069

Cost of sales (307,903) (423,307) (432,312) (392,348) (392,348)

Gross profit 10,488 22,933 15,119 19,720 19,720

Gen & admin expenses (2,380) (2,460) (2,631) (2,631) (2,631)

Operating profit 8,108 20,474 12,488 17,089 17,089

Operating EBITDA 14,770 27,078 19,128 23,729 23,729

Depreciation of fixed assets (6,662) (6,604) (6,640) (6,640) (6,640)

Operating EBIT 8,108 20,474 12,488 17,089 17,089

Net income from investments (72) 37 73 - -

Other recurring income 3,239 2,179 2,240 1,350 1,350

Interest income - - - 867 706

Interest expense (1,796) (2,126) (2,343) (3,353) (2,714)

Exchange gains 2,722 (82) 1,987 - -

Pre-tax profit 12,201 20,481 14,445 15,953 16,432

Taxation (3,035) (5,274) (1,789) (3,191) (3,286)

Minority interests (209) (354) (336) (300) (330)

Profit after tax & minorities 8,956 14,853 12,320 12,463 12,815

Reported net profit 8,956 14,853 12,320 12,463 12,815

Recurring net profit 8,956 14,853 12,320 12,463 12,815

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Operating profit 8,108 20,474 12,488 17,089 17,089

Depreciation & amortisation 6,662 6,604 6,640 6,640 6,640

Change in working capital (2,094) (7,742) (14,548) (17,879) 11,600

Other operating cash flow 3,239 2,179 2,240 1,350 1,350

Operating cash flow 15,914 21,515 6,820 7,200 36,679

Interest received - - - 867 706

Interest paid (1,796) (2,126) (2,343) (3,353) (2,714)

Tax paid (3,035) (5,274) (1,789) (3,191) (3,286)

Cash flow from operations 11,083 14,115 2,688 1,524 31,386

Capex (5,538) (4,269) (8,086) (19,557) (12,593)

Other new investments 653 (726) 2,120 82 -

Other investing cash flow 3,013 (1,792) 1,231 (57) (141)

Cash flow from investing activities (1,871) (6,786) (4,735) (19,532) (12,734)

Dividends paid (5,202) (4,080) (6,732) (4,928) (4,985)

Proceeds from issue of shares (1,507) 1,191 (326) - -

Increase in debt 589 1,664 1,110 23,996 (13,388)

Other financing cash flow - - - - (0)

Cash flow from financing activities (6,120) (1,225) (5,949) 19,068 (18,373)

Cash at beginning of period 8,618 13,217 18,129 10,460 11,520

Total cash generated 3,092 6,104 (7,996) 1,060 279

Implied cash at end of period 11,710 19,320 10,133 11,520 11,798

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Thai Oil (TOP TB) 2 September 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

Financial Exhibits

Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total cash and equivalents 32,347 19,292 28,412 40,982 29,661

Inventories 32,995 34,039 40,004 41,967 41,967

Accounts receivable 8,564 26,102 28,745 30,939 30,939

Other current assets 818 4,715 3,220 3,220 3,220

Total current assets 74,724 84,149 100,381 117,108 105,786

Total investments 2,603 2,787 2,370 2,287 2,287

Tangible fixed assets 67,467 65,132 66,577 79,494 85,447

Total other assets 2,355 3,019 1,348 1,348 1,348

Total non-current assets 72,424 70,938 70,295 83,129 89,082

Total assets 147,148 155,086 170,676 200,237 194,868

Short-term debt 2,962 5,717 4,635 13,213 11,696

Accounts payable 18,984 17,271 28,857 26,263 26,263

Other current liabilities 5,428 3,911 1,679 2,060 2,060

Total current liabilities 27,374 26,900 35,171 41,536 40,019

Total long-term debt 41,062 39,970 42,162 57,580 45,709

Other liabilities 3,142 3,183 2,619 2,619 2,619

Total non-current liabilities 44,204 43,153 44,781 60,199 48,328

Total liabilities 71,577 70,053 79,952 101,735 88,348

Share capital 20,400 20,400 20,400 20,400 20,400

Retained earnings reserve 47,301 56,613 63,678 71,156 78,845

Other reserves 2,456 2,456 2,456 2,456 2,456

Shareholders' equity 70,157 79,470 86,535 94,013 101,702

Minority interests 5,413 5,564 4,189 4,489 4,819

Other equity - (0) - - -

Total equity 75,570 85,033 90,724 98,501 106,521

Total liabilities & equity 147,148 155,086 170,676 200,237 194,868

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Revenue growth (%) 12.1 40.2 0.3 (7.9) 0.0

Operating profit growth (%) (39.2) 152.5 (39.0) 36.8 0.0

Net profit growth (%) (25.7) 65.8 (17.1) 1.2 2.8

EPS growth (%) (25.7) 65.8 (17.1) 1.2 2.8

Bv per share growth (%) 5.0 13.3 8.9 8.6 8.2

Operating margin (%) 2.5 4.6 2.8 4.1 4.1

Net profit margin (%) 2.8 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.1

Return on average assets (%) 6.3 9.8 7.6 6.7 6.5

Return on average equity (%) 13.1 19.9 14.8 13.8 13.1

Net debt to equity (%) 15.5 31.0 20.3 30.3 26.0

DPS 2.00 3.30 2.42 2.44 2.51

Recurrent cash flow per share 5.4 6.9 1.3 0.7 15.4

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Thai Oil (TOP TB) 2 September 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 7

SWOT Analysis

As it is PTT’s flagship for the refinery business, it stands to benefit from any potential deals in the future

Changes in the landscape of the oil and gas industry can have negative implications on earnings

Growth potential in the region

A commodity-based business, which could imply highly volatile earnings

-100%

57%

214%

371%

529%

686%

843%

1,000%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

P/E (x) vs EPS growth

P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs)

0%

3%

6%

8%

11%

14%

17%

19%

22%

25%

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

P/BV (x) vs ROAE

P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)

Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Company Profile Thai Oil is Thailand’s largest oil refinery, with a total capacity of 275kbpd. It also engaged in the aromatics, lubricant base, power, solvents as well as marine transportation businesses.

Thai Oil (TOP TB) 2 September 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 8

Recommendation Chart

12

22

32

42

52

62

72

82

92

Sep-08 Dec-09 Mar-11 Jun-12

Price Close

NR

74.0

73.0

69.1

Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-05-20 Neutral 69.1 66.5

2013-05-20 Sell 55.3 66.5

2012-11-13 Neutral 73.0 62.5

2012-08-08 Trading Buy 74.0 66.3

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg

9

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10

Risk Disclosure Statements The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. RHBSHK does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report Indonesia This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Thailand This report is published and distributed in Thailand by RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Other Jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, this report is intended to be distributed to qualified, accredited and professional investors, in compliance with the law and regulations of the jurisdictions. DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage DISCLAIMERS This research is issued by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd and it is for general distribution only. It does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this research report. You should independently evaluate particular investments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities or investment instruments mentioned in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB” which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad) and Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and their associates, directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities covered in the report, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other corporate finance related services for the corporations whose securities are covered in the report. This report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 1 September 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 1 September 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) Thai Oil DMG & Partners Research Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 200808705N)

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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2012

ADVANC BCP DRT IRPC NOBLE QH SC SYMC TOP AOT BECL EASTW KBANK PHOL RATCH SCB THAI TSTE ASIMAR BKI EGCO KK PS ROBINS SCC TIP TTA BAFS BMCL ERW KTB PSL RS SE-ED TIPCO

BANPU BTS GRAMMY LPN PTT SAMART SIM TISCO BAY CPN HEMRAJ MCOT PTTEP SAMTEL SIS TKT BBL CSL ICC NKI PTTGC SAT SNC TMB

2S BROOK DTAC HMPRO MACO OFM S&J SSSC THRE TSC ACAP BWG DTC HTC MAKRO OGC S&P STANLY TIC TSTH AF CENTEL ECL IFEC MBK OSIHI SABINA STEC TICON TTW AIT CFRESH EE INTUCH MBKET PAP SAMCO SUC TIW TUF AKR CGS EIC ITD MFC PDI SCCC SUSCO TK TVO AMATA CHOW ESSO IVL MFEC PE SCG SVI TLUXE UAC AP CIMBT FE JAS MINT PG SCSMG SYNTEC TMT UMI ASK CK FORTH KCE MODERN PHATRA*** SFP TASCO TNITY UP ASP CM GBX KGI MTI PJW SITHAI TCAP TNL UPOIC AYUD CPALL GC KSL NBC PM SMT TCP TOG UV BEC CPF GFPT L&E NCH PR SPALI TFD TPC VIBHA BFIT CSC GL LANNA NINE PRANDA SPCG TFI TRC VNT BH DCC GLOW LH NMG PRG SPI THANA TRT WACOAL BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LRH NSI PT SPPT THCOM TRU YUASA BJC DEMCO HANA LST OCC PYLON SSF THIP TRUE ZMICO *** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

AEONTS BGT CMO GENCO JTS LHBANK NC PTL SGP SWC TPAC UT AFC BLA CNS GFM JUBILE LHK NNCL Q-CON SIAM SYNEX TPCORP VARO AGE BNC CNT GLOBAL JUTHA LIVE NTV QLT SIMAT TBSP TPIPL WAVE AH BOL CPL GOLD KASET LOXLEY OSK QTC SINGER TCB TPP WG AHC BROCK CRANE HFT KBS MAJOR PAE RASA SIRI TEAM TR WIN AI BSBM CSP HTECH KC MATCH PATO RCL SKR TF TTCL WORK AJ BTNC CSR HYDRO KDH MATI PB RICH SMIT TGCI TWFP

ALUCON BUI CTW IFS KIAT MBAX PICO ROJNA SMK THANI TYCN AMANAH CCET DRACO IHL KKC M-CHAI PL RPC SOLAR TKS UBIS APCO CEN EASON ILINK KTC MDX POST SAM SPC TMD UEC APCS CHUO EMC INET KWC MJD PPM SCBLIF SPG TMI UIC APRINT CI EPCO IRC KWH MK PREB SCP SSC TNH UMS ARIP CIG FNS IRCP KYE MOONG PRECHA SEAFCO SST TNPC UOBKH AS CIMBI*** FOCUS IT LALIN MPIC PRIN SENA STA TOPP UPF ASIA CITY FSS JMART LEE MSC PSAAP SF SVOA TPA US

*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

IOD (IOD Disclaimer)

การเปิดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบรษิัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการก ากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการด าเนินการตามนโยบายของส านักงานคณะกรรมการก ากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป็นการส ารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจดทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลกัทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผูล้งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถงึได้ ดังนั้นผลส ารวจดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการน าเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน

อนึ่ง ผลการส ารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการส ารวจ ณ วนัที่ปรากฎในรายงานการก ากับดแูละกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการส ารวจจึงอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จ ากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการส ารวจดงักล่าวแต่อย่างใด