More of the same, but faster? Or a chance to create a platform for real innovation ? Simon de Haast...
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Transcript of More of the same, but faster? Or a chance to create a platform for real innovation ? Simon de Haast...
More of the same,but faster?
Or a chance to create a platform
for real innovation?
Simon de [email protected] / 083 326 3496
3G
African Telecoms 2005Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March
The things we fear most in
organizations
-- fluctuations, disturbances, and
imbalances --
are the primary sources of
creativity.
~ Margaret J. Wheatley ~
Disruptive Change
Deja moo?
Spectrumauction fallout...
My goal today
Offer new thinking frameworks &
tools
Help you re-perceive the
opportunities
within and around the mobile ecosystem
The fallacy of
safety
in numbers,
or in more savage terms,
the status quo
Creating your own future?
Signature theme
The best way to
predict the future
is to invent it.
Alan Kay‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface
Rear view innovation
Marshall McLuhan:
The “medium is the message” & “the Global Village” guy
Smart fellow. Predicted the effects of having information at our beck and call, instantly
through cable TV & the Internet - in the1960s.
Rear view innovation“When faced with a totally new situation
we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.
We look at the present through a rear view mirror.
We march backwards into the future.”
- Marshall McLuhan
Embedded Worldview
Mobile Telephone services
Linear shift to new generation networks
Voice-device centric
A blank slate?
How differently would things look?
Long Tail? Time-shifting?Innovation possibilities?
This innovation thing...
• “Innovation begins with an eye” -
IDEO
• Hole in a wall, not a drill
• Seeing stuff differently
• Insight
Creating your future II
Write the word
R E A C T I V Eon a piece of paper.
Creating your future II
Write the word
R E A C T I V Eon a piece of paper.
Now move the “C” to the front of the word.
R E A C T I V E
C R E A T I V E
So how do you see things?
Seeing Differently
Other worlds- DNA, RNA -> Distribution model...
Naïve experts &
Dumb questionsVu jà dé
- where to put the armour plating?
Innovation Lag
Peter Senge - The Fifth DisciplineEnsemble of component technologies: 30-
40yrsDC-3:• variable pitch propeller • retractable landing gear, • monocque body construction • radial air-cooled engine• wing flaps
+ later, radar & jet engines.
vs Boeing 247?
Making connections
“I’m not sure
who discovered water,but I’m pretty sure
it wasn’t a fish.”
The Long Tail
Chris Anderson - Wired.com- Amazon, Netflix biz models
The Long Tail
The Long Tail
The Long Tail
“Touching the Void” - mediocre seller...1o years later, “Into Thin Air”Big successThen Void sales increased
- now 2:1Bye bye 80:20 rule in bit-based
business
Long Tail with 3G
iPod Shuffle + CellphoneFlat rate music downloadDRM expires content unless boughtChoice widens, curiosity incentiveWag the Long Tail“Lease” content to other devices
-keep renewing periodically
Time-Shifting
VCRsMy time, not their time!TiVO....RSS...BitTorrent...Google
VideoMe-TVNot anonymous on network
We’re just warming up!
Operators: Advanced Services = Key DifferentiatorIncrease ARPU, more SIM provisioning
Users: 70%Simple phone please!!Simple phone please!!
Thinking outside the handset
Mobile phone service components- Handset- SIM card- Wireless network- Content and services provision- Billing system- Customer relationship.
Thinking outside the handset
Creatively re-combine:- Handset- SIM card- Wireless network- Content and services provision- Billing system- Customer relationship.
+ Small box of electronics
3G Appliance
Something to consume Long Tail and Time Shifted services with
Operator sells another SIM card
3G Appliance
Just some scenariosCreating possibilities!What business am I really in?
The ‘Un-dialed’
Borrow from the banks...unbanked.Mzansi: No frills bank account
Do the same for a no-frills telecoms service?
Key Point“When faced with a totally new situation
we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.
We look at the present through a rear view mirror.
We march backwards into the future.”
- Marshall McLuhan
Simon de [email protected] / 083 326 3496
A copy of the talk will be available on www.ideafarm.co.za/blog
African Telecoms 2005Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March
Thank you