MOOCs are knocking on the university door: trick-or-treat?

Jordi SanchoInteractive Media Lab - lmi.ub.eduUniversity of Barcelonajsancho@ub.edu@JordiSanchoS

Opening Up Higher Education: Open Content, Open Networked Learning, MOOCs, Open Business - What to Expect?  What to Be Ready For?"

Roundtable UNESCO Chair in Education & Technology for Social Change - UOC

June 25, 2013

With Terry Anderson and Jordi Sancho

http://goo.gl/BYJW8B

Keynote developed in the conference:

Sancho, J. (2012) Muerte y resurrección de la universidad (again) en manos de la colaboración masiva: avanzar los MOOC. Dins de Bergmann, Juliana i Grané, Mariona (Editores) La universidad en la nube. Barcelona: Transmedia XXI.

Sancho, J. (2011) La evaluación de proyectos colaborativos a gran escala basados en wikis mediante el análisis de redes sociales. Dins de Cano, E. (Editora)(2011) Aprobar o aprender. Estrategias de evaluación en la sociedad red. Barcelona: Transmedia XXI.

SUMMARY

A few new MOOC companies took the universities by storm last year.

Private funds invested more than 100 millions in 2012, with a weak business model ("Shoot! Aim!").

Coursera's recent profits only came when putting aside the "Free" content.

There are different models of relationship between universities and MOOCs. They are changing and they are not exclusive.

Pedagogically xMOOCs are nothing new. Evaluation and feedback in xMOOCs and cMOOCs is a key factor.

Evaluation & Feedback: the scale can be seen as a problem but also as a solution.

There is a new research trying to adapt new methodologies that get better results when the scale grows (Social Networks Analysis, machine learning algoritms, etc.).

MOOCS TSUNAMI IN 2012

Forbes 19/11/2012 New York Times 2/11/2012

Udacity, Coursera, edX• Coursera: 70 universities (June 2013). EdX: 27 • 100 millions $ private funds in 2012. • Coursera:

• 3,2 M students in May 2013.• Profits in April 2013.

• (95% fracàs)

FutureLend: 12 universities UK

MiriadaX: 18 Spanish universities and “1,232 associated universities”...DecydEd (June 2013): LSE, Chicago, Toronto, Carnegie Mellon...

Making courseware "massive" may dangle the eventual possibility of trillion-dollar profits (even if they have yet to materialise). But it does not "fix" what is broken in our system of education. It massively scales what's broken (Davidson, 2012).

Davidson, C. N. (2012). Size Isn’t Everything. For academe’s future, think mash-ups not MOOC’s. The Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved from http://chronicle.com/article/Size-Isnt-Everything/136153

61,285 registered students11% deliver at least one task2% get final certificate0,24% send final project0,17% get final certificate with distinction (107 students)

107: teacher/student ratio = 1/27

~ Social Network Analysis ~ Coursera

“... It massively scales what's broken.”

Source: http://cogdogblog.com/16855

FIRE!AIM

~ BUSINESS MODELS ~

MOOCs Business models (Bousquet, 2012):

1. Charging for certification.2. Vending of tutorial services, translations, facilitation of

small-group discussion and peer learning.3. Direct tuition for courses or clusters of courses in

relation to cross-certification, standard distance-ed practice.

4. Advertising and employment-service revenue from job seekers and potential employers.

Bousquet, M. (2012). Good MOOC’s, Bad MOOC’s. The Chronicle of Higher Education. 25/7/2012. Retrieved from http://chronicle.com/blogs/brainstorm/good-moocs-bad-moocs/50361

Coursera’s (transitional) business models:

October 2012: Coursera licensed (for some economic compensation ) some courses to Antioch University who then offers to students (Kolowich, 2012a).

Surprise: in the license the “Open” (from MOOC) means that courses are free only in informal learning contexts (Kolowich, 2012b).

November 2012: Coursera communicates the American Council on Education intention of initiating a recognition and validation programme as a payment service (Coursera, 2012).

December 2012: Coursera open "Career Services" to promote occupability of their students from the massive database available.

January 2013: Coursera offers a certification with identity validation for 30-100$.

May 2013: Several universities contract Coursera as a education provider for their students.

Last: It plans offering courses for museums and schools (k-12).

University of WashingtonComputational finance (free): 30,000 studentsComputational finance (souped up) (1,000$ - 2,000$): 26 students

Massive little payments:“1 percent of students paying $50 in a course with an enrollment of 100,000 would create $50,000 in revenue.”

Experiment 1

Experiment 2

Experiment 3

Master in Computer Sciences: 7,000$Udacity, Georgia Institute of Technology and AT&T

1st Generation Contract: Universitat de Michigan - Coursera17 April 2012

https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/400864/coursera-fully-executed-agreement.pdf

University Courseraprovider

payment

Cost: 15,000$ - 50,000$ per course

Pays:6-15% course gross incomes20% gross benefits for each course

2nd Generation Contract: University of Kentucky - CourseraMay 2013

http://chronicle.com/article/Document-Courseras-Contract/139531/

Coursera Universitat

- 3,000$ for course creation costs- 0-500: 25 $/each- 500-1000: 15$/ each- >1000: 8$/each.

provider

payment

UNIVERSITIES & MOOCs~ LOVING

RELATIONSHIPS~

UNIVERSITATS

MOOCs

SAME CHANGE APPROACHING INCORPORATION

BIG SCALE FEEDBACK & MARKING~ A PROBLEM AND A SOLUTION ~

Problems:

1. Lack of a clear educational paradigm.

2. Lack of scalable feedback and marking systems coherent with a selected paradigm.

Actual grading systems

1. Tests for automatic grading.

2. Peer review. Problems: great variability, feedback on feedback.

3. Automatic grading of papers. National Council on Measurement in Education.

“We desperately need crowdsourcing [for learning feedback and grading] (...) We need a MOOCE — massive open online course evaluation.”(Pappano, 2012).

Pappano, L. (2012). The year of the MOOC. The New York Times, 2/12/2012. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/education/edlife/massive-open-online-courses-are-multiplying-at-a-rapid-pace.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

1. Social and collaborative competencies

2. Working in projects

3. Few but complex tasks

Biggs, 2003; Cano, 2011; Gibbs i Simpson, 2004:

BIG SCALE COL·LABORATIVE PROJECTS

Grants value to students activities:

1. Meaning

2. Motivation

3. Social impact

There is an intrinsic relationship between wikis and constructivist, connectivist and collaborative approaches to learning

(Parker i Chao, 2007; Cole, 2009; Downes, 2009; Tetard et al., 2009; Su i Beaumont, 2010).

“One of those things impossible in theory but possible in practice“ (Kelly, 2008).

WIKIS

Inconvinients

ComplexityFragmentationAdaptationMeaning

Methodologies that improve as the scale

increases

Data miningSocial Networks analysis

Factorial analysisAI

Machine learningk-means clustering

Predictive algorithms

Approach

EditorsAportacion

s

Continguts

Wiki

307

141

2881

TsWikiElements d’economia i empresa

EditorsAportacion

s

Continguts

WikiWiki

EditorsAportacion

s

Continguts

Wiki

Importància editors

Importància continguts

Anàlisi de xarxes socialsMetodologia

Informació

Editor 1 Editor 2

Pàgina 1

Pàgina 2

Editor 3

Pàgina 3

Pàgina 1

Pàgina 2

Pàgina 3

Editor 1 1 0 1

Editor 2 1 1 0

Editor 3 0 0 1

Editor 1

Editor 2

Editor 3

Editor 1 0 1 1

Editor 2 1 0 0

Editor 3 1 0 0

Pàgina 1

Pàgina 2

Pàgina 3

Pàgina 1 1 0 1

Pàgina 2 1 0 0

Pàgina 3 1 0 0

Xarxa d’editors

Xarxa de conceptes

Metodologia

Anàlisi factorial

Informació

Continguts

Blocs temàtics

WikiEditors

Aportacions

Wiki

Metodologia

Informació

EditorsAportacion

s

Continguts

Wiki

Tipologies d’editors

Clústers per k-means

Grup motor

-Clúster 5-

Correcció ortogràfica correcta

Introdueix informació rellevant

Esborra correctamentEsborra incorrectamentReestructura correctamentReestructura incorrectament

Cita fonts

Introdueix informació irrellevant

Crea enllaç (hipervincle)

Format wiki

Combina argumentacions

Correcció ortogràfica incorrectaExemple irrellevantExemple rellevant

Valors de les variables

Variables

Editors

Activitat+-

Vinculadors- Clúster 4 -

Editors de format

- Clúster 3 -

Molta informació i altres

- Clúster 2 -

Informació rellevant

- Clúster 0 -

Passius- Clúster 1 -

Wiki

Metodologia

Algoritme

predictiu naive Bayes

Informació

Continguts

Wiki Classificació

continguts segons

aportacions

EditorsAportacion

s

Machine learning Predictive algoritm of supervised learning

“naive Bayes” on text

Criteri dicotomització

Type 1 texts

Type 2 texts

Language analysisLanguage analysis

Learning

Algoritme

Detects and identify

Patterns

Probabilisticclassification

Text to classify

Input

Procedent anàlisi

clústers

May the algoritm/programme identify if contents have been developed following teacher’s directives?

Text modelType 1

Text modelType 2

Pot l’algoritme/programa identificar si els continguts s’han desenvolupat segons les directrius marcades pel professorat?

75% Concepts developed following directives.

62% Concepts not developed following directives.

Wiki

Metodologia

Anàlisi factorial

Algoritme

predictiu naive Bayes

Informació

Continguts

Wiki

Tipologies d’editors

Clústers per k-means

Classificació

continguts segons

aportacions

Blocs temàtics

Importància editors

Importància continguts

Anàlisi de xarxes socials

EditorsAportacion

s

Editors importance

Contents importance

Editors typologies

Thematic blocs

Contents classificated based on contributio

ns

INFORMATION INTEGRATION

Individual information

10273594

Grau: 9Intermediació: 4t (2,59%)C2: Molta informació i altresTeoria econòmica (5è editor)Social (10èditor)

Individual information

C 2: Molta informació i altresC 3: Editors de formatC 4: VinculadorsC 5: Grup motor

General information

General information

SUMMARY (again)

A few new MOOC companies took the universities by storm last year.

Private funds invested more than 100 millions in 2012, with a weak business model ("Shoot! Aim!").

Coursera's recent profits only came when putting aside the "Free" content.

There are different models of relationship between universities and MOOCs. They are changing and they are not exclusive.

Pedagogically xMOOCs are nothing new. Evaluation and feedback in xMOOCs and cMOOCs is a key factor.

Evaluation & Feedback: the scale can be seen as a problem but also as a solution.

There is a new research trying to adapt new methodologies that get better results when the scale grows (Social Networks Analysis, machine learning algoritms, etc.).

Sometimes the addition of an improved technology/methodology produces a loss of useful knowledge. In the short time.

Now we cannot use previous systems for learning evaluation.

But soon we will develop methodologies based on known learning paradigms and using big scale data in order give precise feedback and evaluation of learning processes.

That process is a good place to focus our actual research (and put the money).

Thank you!

Jordi Sanchojsancho@ub.eduTwitter: @JordiSanchoS