MONTHLY SNAPSHOT - NIFTY 50

December Snapshot – Nifty 50

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CONTENTS

Latest Updates

Technical Analysis

S&P CNX Nifty

Bank Nifty Future

BSE Sensex


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Latest Updates

02nd Nov –

Allahabad Bank has posted a net profit of Rs 488 crore for the quarter ended

September 30, 2011 as compared to Rs 402.6 crore for the quarter ended September

30, 2010. Total Income has increased from Rs 2981.66 crore for the quarter ended

September 30, 2010 to Rs 4202.54 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2011.

08th Nov -

TTK Healthcare has reported a sales turnover of Rs 86.50 crore and a net Profit of Rs

3.42 crore for the quarter ended Sep '11. For the quarter ended Sep 2010 the sales

turnover was Rs 75.93 crore and net profit was Rs 3.72 cr.

09th Nov - Pharmaceutical firm Ranbaxy Labs has reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 465 crore

in the third quarter of 2011 as against Rs 308 crore in the corresponding quarter of last

fiscal. The loss was due to the forex loss of Rs 400 crore in the quarter.

10th Nov –

Hindalco Industries Ltd, recorded a 16% rise in its standalone net profit for the July-Sept

quarter at Rs 503 crore Year-on-Year. Net sales for the period also climbed 7% to Rs

6,272 crore.

11th Nov –

Adani Power has reported a net profit of Rs 177 crore in the second quarter of FY12, a growth

of 40.5% as compared to Rs 126 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal. Net sales too

jumped 171.4% to Rs 1,072 crore from Rs 395 crore during the same period.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/allahabad-bank/AB15


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14th Nov -

Sun Pharmaceutical has announced a 19% increase in its net profit to Rs 598 crore for

the September quarter Year-on-Year on the back of robust performance across its

business. The drug maker’s sales for the quarter also grew 42% to Rs 1,894 crore

versus Rs 1,331.42 crore.

16th Nov –

Tata Motors has reported a sales turnover of Rs 12,953.80 crore and a net profit of Rs

102.02 crore for the quarter ended Sep '11. For the quarter ended Sep 2010 the sales

turnover was Rs 11,504.07 crore and net profit was Rs 432.70 crore.

17th Nov –

Phillips Carbon Black has reported a sales turnover of Rs 563.86 crore and a net profit of

Rs 20.83 crore for the quarter ended Sep '11. For the quarter ended Sep 2010 the sales

turnover was Rs 414.80 crore and net profit was Rs 24.27 crore.

19th Nov-

HMT has reported a sales turnover of Rs 37.81 crore and a net loss of Rs 25.74 crore for

the quarter ended Sep '11. For the quarter ended Sep 2010 the sales turnover was Rs

48.52 crore and net loss was Rs 20.62 crore.

28th Nov –

Tractor maker Escorts ' consolidated net profit for 2010-11 [October-September] declined

4% year-on-year to Rs 126.39 crore, on the back of rising cost of raw materials and high

interest charges among other things.


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TECHNICAL VIEW

Moving averages

Moving Averages 20 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day

Daily 4992 5022 5102 5345

Weekly 5100 5396 5415 4775

Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly)

SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%

NIFTY 6336 5377 4777 4300 3815 2252

Weekly Pivot

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

NIFTY 5879 5571 5263 5157 4955 4849 4647 4339 4031

Monthly Pivot


NIFTY 7313 6552 5791 5420 5030 4659 4269 3508 2747


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Weekly Analysis :- S&P CNX NIFTY

If we look at a broader chart of Nifty, we can see it is working quite well with

retracement of its rally started from 2252 (Nov 2008) to its peak at 6336 (Nov 2010).

Nifty this month is expected to be sustain the consolidation phase or may go up due to

following reasons:-

Nifty currently has resisted the retracement level of 38.2% and has given a

closing above this retracement and it may further extend uptrend to test the

retracement level of 23.6% which is around 5400.

This week it has made closing above its 200 weeks moving average hence that

level would act as an important support level which may help Nifty to go up.

Nifty currently is following an downward channel making lower top & lower

bottoms & has resist its support line & is expected now to go up from this level to

make its new lower top i.e. near its upward resistance line which is at around

5300-5350.


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Nifty gave a closing above its 200 weeks moving average and if it trades above it; then

we can see further short-term uptrend. Also it has given closing above its 38.2%

retracement hence may see an upward momentum to test its 23.6% retracement level

which at 5400 where it could resist its upward resistance line. Though, If Nifty is not be

able to sustain the level of 4800-4700 and gave closing below its 38.2% retracement

level in the coming week, then we can see a short term downward rally to 4400-4500.

Moreover it may range in between 4700-5300 this month.

Bank Nifty

Moving averages


Daily 9055 9330 9821 10426

Weekly 9720 10488 10401 8436


SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%

BANK NIFTY 13320 10945 9505 8305 7150 3290

Weekly Pivot


BANK NIFTY 11084 10374 9664 9418 8954 8708 8244 7534 6824

Monthly Pivot


BANK NIFTY 14870 12976 11082 10144 9188 8250 7294 5400 3503


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Weekly Analysis

Here we had applied retracement on weekly chart of Bank Nifty started from 3290 (Mar

2009) to its peak at 13320 (Nov 2010). Bank Nifty this month is expected to sustain the

consolidation phase or may be a positive bias due to following reasons :-

Bank Nifty after breaking its retracement level of 38.2% and has tested the level

of 50% retracement and has take support of it, hence now is expected to test

back the retracement level of 38.2%

Bank Nifty has also tested its 200 weeks moving average and has given the

closing above that hence is expected to go up from this level.

Bank Nifty currently is following an downward channel making lower top & lower

bottoms has test its support level which was around 8500 and now is ready to

test its upward resistance line to make its new lower top.

Though RBI actions in coming month and its credit policy will be keenly watched

and any news of rate hike will affect upward momentum and may see further

downward pressure.


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Bank Nifty this month has given closing above its 50% retracement level and in the

coming weeks we can see upside expecting to trade above 50% retracement to test its

38.2% retracement which is around 9500; then. But, If Bank Nifty would not be able to

sustain here and trades below 8400-8200 in the coming weeks then can see a short

term downfall to 8100-7800. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 8150-9850.

BSE Sensex

Moving averages


Daily 16625 16702 16995 17796

Weekly 16990 17986 18054 15915


SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%

SENSEX 21108 17980 15980 14410 12810 10870

Weekly Pivot


SENSEX 19525 18486 17447 16967 16408 15928 15369 14330 13291

Monthly Pivot


SENSEX 23712 21379 19046 17947 16713 15614 14380 12047 9714


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Weekly Analysis

If we look at a broader chart of Sensex, we can see it is working quite well with

retracement of its rally started from 7698 (Nov 2008) to its peak at 21108 (Nov 2010).

Sensex this month is expected to be sustain the consolidation phase or may go up due

to following reasons:-

This week it has taken support of its 200 weeks moving average hence that level

would act as an important support level and may go up.

Sensex has breached the retracement level of 38.2% and has given a closing

very well above this retracement and it may further extend uptrend to test the

retracement level of 23.6% which is around 18000.

Sensex currently is following an downward channel making lower top & lower

bottoms & has resist its support line & is expected now to go up from this level to

make its new lower top i.e. near its upward resistance line which is at around

17500-18000.


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Last week Sensex has given a closing above its 200 weeks moving average which will

act as major support and in near term may sustain it and continue its upward

momentum to test the retracement level of 23.6% which comes around 18000. But, If

Sensex would not be able to sustain the level of 16300-15900 and gave closing below

its 38.2% retracement level in the coming week, and then we can see a short term

downward rally to 15300-15000. Sensex may range in between 1588-17800 this month.

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MONTHLY SNAPSHOT - NIFTY 50

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