Monthly report on Cotton (May) MCX - smctradeonline.com
Transcript of Monthly report on Cotton (May) MCX - smctradeonline.com
History
Globalcoronavirus-ledrestrictionsandlockdownshavesappeddemandforthenaturalfiberandapparel,withcottonpricesdeclining25%inthe
domesticmarket&38%intheinternationalmarketsofarthisyear.WiththerapidspreadofCOVID-19,thelatestUSDAreportfeaturedarecord
downwardadjustmenttodemand.Globalmill-usewaslowered7.6millionbalesrelativetolastmonth(to110.6million).Ifrealized,thiswouldbe
thelowestlevelsince2013/14(duetothepricespike,mill-usewasbelow110millionbalesbetween2011/12and2013/14).Uncertaintyishigh.
Giventhepossibilityforthediseasetore-emergeafteraninitialcontainmentandthesevereeconomiceffectsresultingfromshutdownsaroundthe
world,furtherdownwardrevisionsappearlikely.
Giventheseverity,afactorthatcouldcompoundtraditionalpriceeffectsisthattherecouldbefewertextilemanufacturersinbusinesstotakeorders.
Itremainstobeseenwhatsupportmeasuresmaybeofferedtoemergingmarketsandhowmanymanufacturersinthosecountriesmaybeforcedto
close.Ifclosuresarewidespread,globalmanufacturingcapacitymayrequireseveralyearstorebuild.
OntheMultiCommodityExchangeofIndia,cottonfutureshadhitayearlylowof15,170rupeesperbale,thelowestsinceMarch2016.Thecotton
spinningindustry,whichhadalreadybeenfacingmultiplechallengeslikelowdemand,unfavourabledutystructureandvolatilecottonfibreprices
isconfrontinganothertroubleintheformoftheCovid-19pandemic.Thecottonyarnexportshavetakenahit,mainlyonaccountofsubdued
demandfromChina.ItisreportedthatChina’smajorcottonyarndemandisnowbeingcateredtobyVietnam,whichenjoysduty-freeaccessto
China.
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MONTHLY CHART OF ICE COTTON FUTURES
Source:Reuters
MONTHLY CHART OF MCX COTTON FUTURES
Source:Reuters
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Domesticmarketinventories
Ÿ Thenation-widelockdownhaswashedoutdemandformade-ups,apparelandgarmentsduringweddingseasonandId,andislikelytoremain
dullforalongerperiod.ThegovernmenthasextendedthenationwidelockdownbyanothertwoweekstillMay17.
Ÿ ConsumptionbymillsinIndiaisprojectedtofallconsiderablyto26.5mlnbalesinthecurrentseasonfrom32.4mlnbalesintheyear-agoperiod
asmillsareholdingsufficientinventoryandwiththeslowdownbecauseofCOVID-19,millsmaynotneedcottonatleasttillJul-Aug.
Ÿ Exportsarealsounlikelytogainmomentuminthenearfuture.However,BangladeshistheonlymarketwhichmaypushIndia'sexports.
Ÿ Indiantradershavenotsignedanynewdealsforexportsafterlockdown.
Domesticmarketfundamentals
Ÿ Currently,millsinGujaratandMaharashtraarenotrunningfullcapacitybecauseoflabourshortage.
Ÿ Onthesupplyside,theinitialprojectionsshowthatthisseasontheacreageislikelytobehigher.FarmersinHaryana,PunjabandRajasthan
havetakentocottoncultivationprimarilyontwogrounds–higherincomeoverrelativelylessremunerativecropssuchaspaddyandguarseed,
andthelabourshortageforpaddytransplantation.
Ÿ Thisyear,cottonacreagemayslightlyincreaseinnorthernzone,butwouldbarelyoffsetthedeclineexpectedinotherpartsofthecountry.
Cottonacreage in central and southern India is likely to fall this year as farmers couldoptother competitive crops like soybean, urad,
groundnut,turmericandchilli,whichofferedbetterreturnslastseason.
Ÿ Cottonhadbeenplantedacross12.6mlnhainthecountryin2019-20,accordingtoCottonAdvisoryBoardestimates.
Ÿ Thisseason,theoverallacreageislikelytoremainlargelyatthesamelevelor5%lowercomparedwiththepreviousyear.
Source:USDA
Punjab 5405 5178.42 5903.12 4.38 -8.44
Rajasthan 5091.25 5039.85 6196.01 1.02 -17.83
Tamil Nadu 4481.2 4911.78 5759.56 -8.77 -22.2
Average 4648 4972 5916
State Prices Prices Prices % Change % Change April, 2020 March, 2020 April, 2019 (Over Previous Month) (Over Previous Year)
Gujarat 4668.03 4639.44 5900.55 0.62 -20.89
Karnataka 3826.04 4827.37 5759.11 -20.74 -33.57
Madhya Pradesh 4236.29 5104.49 5814.03 -17.01 -27.14
Maharashtra 4827.84 5101.27 6080.07 -5.36 -20.6
*ReportGeneration:AsperthedatareportedbyAPMCs Source:AGMARK
PricesinRs/QuintalSpotmarketupdate–Arrivals
StatewiseWholesalePricesMonthlyAnalysisforCottonMarch,2020
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• Whilethereishopeforavaccineorcure,orthatwarmerweatherinthenorthernhemispherewillminimiseCovid'simpact,therecanbenoreal
economicrecoveryunlessthereisahealthrecoveryfirst.
• In2020/21,globalareaisprojectedtodecreaseby4%to33mhectares,withIndiaremainingtheworldleaderdespiteplantingsdroppingto
12mhectares.Productionwilldeclinebyacomparableamountto25mtonnes.
• USDAWeeklyCropProgressReportshowedcottonplantingat18%complete(13%lastweek,16%lastyear,17%average).
Forthetimebeingitisdifficulttopredictthebottomasbecausewhentheretailstoresreopen,they'vegotrecordinventoriesofspringappareltoget
ridofandthey'renotplacingfallorders.Themarketparticipantsareholdingabearishviewonthiscommodityandthat’sthereasonspeculatorsare
stillholdingnetshortpositionincottonfuturesof11,485contractsintheweektoApril28.
Withlittlehopeofpricerecovery,marketparticipantswillcloselywatchtheacreagedataof2020-21.Theacreagenumbersmaynothelpturnthe
trendbullish,butmayjuststabilisethepricesifareadeclines.CottoncultivationistakingthecentrestageinNorthIndia.Onthebackoflastyear’s
higherpricesandpurchasesbytheCottonCorporationofIndia(CCI),farmersinPunjab,HaryanaandRajasthanareseenmovingawayfrompaddy
andguarseedtothefibrecropthisyear.
Intheinternationalmarket,recentlyICEcottonfuturesfelltotheirlowestinnearlytwoweeksonworriesthatanescalationinU.S.-Chinatrade
tensionscouldhamperChinesedemandforthenaturalfiber.ThemarketisnotgoingtobeabletorallyonChinesesalesbecausetheChinese-U.S.
relationsaredeterioratingsorapidlythattheoddsofsomebigsalegettingshippedinthedistantfutureareverylow.IfChinadoesbuyover4million
balesofU.Scottonforitsstrategicreserve,suchcouldbeseenasagamechangerwithrespecttoICEfutures.Sayingthis,itisexpectedthatthe
counterwouldfaceresistancenear60centsperpound&witnessingsellingpressure,itmaydescendtowards52-48centsperpound.
TheICAC'scurrentpriceprojectionfortheyear-end2019/20averageoftheAIndexhasbeenrevisedto71.4centsperpound.Thepriceprojection
fortheyear-end2020/21averageoftheAIndexis56.9centsperpound.Thiswouldbethelowestlevelsincetheglobalfinancialcrisisof2007-8,
whenpricesfellto49centsperpound.
U.SSecretaryofStateMikePompeosaidtherewas"asignificantamountofevidence"thatthenewcoronavirusemergedfromaChineselaboratory,
butdidnotdisputeU.S.intelligenceagencies'conclusionthatitwasnotman-made.ThisstatementcitesthatlargepurchasesbyChinaseemlikelyto
hingeonmitigationoftensionsbetweentheU.S.andChinaregardingblamefortheWuhanpandemic.
Internationalmarketfundamentals
• Globalcottonconsumptionin2019/20issettosuffera12%declineasdemandplummetsduetotheCovid-19pandemic,withyear-endprices
seenfallingtotheirlowestlevelsinmorethanadecade.
• Sincethebeginningof2020,cottonfuturespriceshavedeclined30%,asretailstoresaroundtheglobehaveshutteredandordersfromtextile
millshavedropped.ThelatestprojectionsfromtheInternationalCottonAdvisoryCouncil(ICAC)showa11.8%declineinconsumptionfor
2019/20,a4%decreaseinplantedlandin2020/21anda4%decreaseinproductionin2020/21.
• Withtheglobaleconomyparalysedandsupplychainsshattered,currentprojectionsshowan11.8%declineincottonconsumption,reducing
globaltradeto8.26mtonnesin2019/20.
Foresight
Lookingatthemonthlychartsofcottonfutures(May)onMCX,itisverymuchvisiblethatthereismoreroomonthedownsideforthecounter
tomarkanewyearlylowof14000.AfterasteepfallinMarch,cottonpricesareexpectedtofallfurtherindaystocomeasthenationwidelockdown
tocurbthespreadofthenovelcoronavirushashitdemandinthedomesticandoverseasmarkets.Demandfromthespinningandtextileindustryhas
declinedsubstantiallyandthatmayleadtoaglutinthemarket.Withtheaveragemonthlydomesticuseof2.5-2.7mlnbales,Indiahaslostalmost2
monthconsumptionsincethestartoflockdownonMar23.Withnofearofsupplyshortage,outlookforcottonintheneartermisbearish.Weak
demandandtradedisruptionacrosstheglobearelikelytokeepcottonpricesunderpressureinthecomingmonths.
Thedemandfortextileswillfaceheadwindsinboththemarkets,domesticandinternational.Theclosureofretailstoresandmallsonaccountof
lockdownsituationacrossthenationwillaffecttheindustry’ssales.Evenafterthelockdownislifted,demandfortextileswilltaketimetopickup.
Thisisbecausefootfallswillbelowinmallsandretailstoresaspeoplewillavoidvisitingcrowdedmarkets.
India’sexportscenarioremainsdepressedforthetopexportdestinations–Europeanmarkets,includingtheUKandtheUS(togethertheyaccount
forabout60%ofthetotalapparelexports)–giventhespreadofCOVID-19inthesemarketsandthelockdownsituationthere.
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Closingason4thMay,2020 Source:MCX
Forward curve of Cotton futures (MCX)
Closingason4thMay,2020 Source:Barchart
Forward curve of Cotton futures (ICE)
15700.00 15930.00
15970.00
16650.00
17400.0017500.00
17590.00
15600.00
16100.00
16600.00
17100.00
17600.00
18100.00
May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec
56.56
54.33
55.89
56.24
54.00
54.50
55.00
55.50
56.00
56.50
57.00
May July Oct Dec
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Vandana Bharti (AVP - Commodity Research) Boardline : 011-30111000 Extn: 625 [email protected]
Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst (Agro) Boardline : 011-30111000 Extn: 674 [email protected]
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