Monthly Advisory Presentation Sep

7/31/2019 Monthly Advisory Presentation Sep

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Table of Content

How September Unfolded?

FII & DII Inflows and Outflows

Top Gainers & Losers

Upcoming Major Events


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On Domestic Front

Nifty gained 8.0% till date from the start of September12.

5254

57885,676

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

3-Sep-1

2

6-Sep-1

2

9-Sep-1

2

12-Sep-1

2

15-Sep-1

2

18-Sep-1

2

21-Sep-1

2

24-Sep-1

2

27-Sep-1

2

30-Sep-1

2

3-Oc

t-12

6-Oc

t-12

9-Oc

t-12

12-Oc

t-12


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Positives

IIP data grew at a better-than-expected 2.7% in August on the back of some base effect

and improved performance on the manufacturing and consumer goods front.

Policy Reforms:

1) Diesel price hiked by `5/litre (12% hike) expected to reduce under-recoveries by `15,000crforOMCs and caps on LPG cylinder to 6 cylinders per household in a year.

2) Approval of FDI in multi-brand retail (51%), civil aviation (49%), power exchange (49%),

broadcasting (74%) and insurance.

3) Reduction in withholding tax for local companies on overseas borrowings from 20% to 5%.

4) Divestment approved for 4 PSUs- Nalco (12.2%), MMTC (9.3%), Hindustan Copper(9.6%) and Oil India (10%) and is expected to raise `30,000cr.

5) Cabinet has given its nod for increasing the foreign investment ceiling in the insurance

sector to 49% from the present 26%.

On Domestic Front


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Negatives

WPI core inflation rose to a 6-month high in Aug12 to 7.6%.

Exports contracted 10.8% from a year ago for the moth of September toUS$23.7bn, while imports rose 5.1% to US$41.8bn on a 31% rise in oilimports to US$14.1bn.

Trade deficit during September reached to an 11-month high of $18.1billion.

SIAM lowers growth outlook for automotive industry for FY2013 to 5-7%in FY2013 as against 11-13% previously.

On Domestic Front


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Indias benchmark 10-year bonds stood at 8.2 for the month of September.

10-year Bond Yield

7.58.2

5

6

7

8

9

10

Oc

t-08

Apr-

09

Oc

t-09

Apr-

10

Oc

t-10

Apr-

11

Oc

t-11

Apr-

12

Oc

t-12

(%

)


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Positives

ECB agreed to purchase unlimited government bonds to lower borrowing costs forstruggling euro zone countries

German constitutional court approved on unlimited financial liability for Germany

towards the euro zone bailout fund (though with conditions)

The Federal Reserve's decided to launch a third-round of quantitative easing (QE3)

measures to reviving growth and boost employment in the US economy.

The U.S. non-manufacturing index expanded at a faster rate (1.1 points ) in August to

53.7.

Europes PMI for the manufacturing sector came in at a 6-month high of 46.1 in

September, compared to 45.1 In August. (PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in

the sector). The Peoples Bank of China introduced 265 billion yuan into the economy this Tuesday

via reverse repurchase agreements.

The U.S unemployment number dropped to 7.8% in September.

On Global Front


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Negatives

U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter compared to theprevious estimate of 1.7% growth and 2.0% in the first quarter.

In US the Commerce Department reported that new home sales edged down 0.3% to

a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 373,000 in August.

Chinas HSBC PMI increased to 47.9 from 47.6 in August, signaling an eleventh

month of contraction in the activity of the manufacturing sector.

The Chinese economy expanded 7.6% yoy in the second quarter, the weakest pace

in nearly three years. The slowdown is more evident in the manufacturing and export

sectors.

On Global Front


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Oil price and Rupee appreciation

Brent crude oil prices which increased by ~9.0% in Aug, fell by 5.2% till date from the startof September.

While Rupee appreciated against US$ by ~5% till date from the start of September.

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

(`)

(`/barre

l)

Brent/barrel USD/INR


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ForSeptember12, net FII inflows stood at `20,808cr.

Till September this year, FIIs have witnessed net inflows of `72,065cr compared to

net outflow of ~ `19,545cr in CY2011 for the same period.

FIIs Inflow/ Outflow

(3,089)

20,808

(10,000)

(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Sep

'11

Oc

t'11

Nov

'11

Dec

'11

Jan

'12

Fe

b'12

Mar'

12

Apr'

12

May

'12

Jun

'12

Ju

l'12

Aug

'12

Sep

'12

(`cr)


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DIIs Inflow/ Outflow

ForSeptember12, net DII outflows stood at `9,152cr.

Till September this year, DIIs have witnessed net outflow of `38,000cr compared to

net inflow of `24,434cr in CY2011 for the same period.

1,747

(9,152)

(14,000)

(12,000)

(10,000)

(8,000)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Sep

'11

Oc

t'11

Nov

'11

Dec

'11

Jan

'12

Fe

b'12

Mar'

12

Apr'

12

May

'12

Jun

'12

Ju

l'12

Aug

'12

Sep

'12

(`cr)


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Gainers

Essar Oil - Essar Oil rose ~13% as Supreme court dismissed demand of the Gujarat state

government for the interest payment of Rs.1800cr.

Adani Enterprise - Adani Enterprise rose ~11% as Adani Power, a group company, is expected

to earn Rs.600cr as carbon credits.

Tata Global - Tata Global rose ~10%on news that Tata Starbucks confirmed that the first store

in India will open in Mumbai by the end of October 2012.

Power Finance - Power Finance rose ~9% as the Cabinet approved the scheme for financial

restructuring of state distribution companies (Discoms).

JP Associates - JP Associates rose ~7% as the Securities Appellate Tribunal set aside an order

against the promoter of the company, Manoj Gaur, and two of his relatives.

Losers

Suzlon Energy - Suzlon Energy lost ~13% as its bondholders rejected a proposal to extend the

maturity of its overseas convertible bonds by four months.

WiproWipro lost ~9% as rupee continued to get stronger compared to dollar.

InfosysInfosyslost ~9% as it cut both revenue and earnings guidance for the fiscal year

ending March 2013 following appreciation of the rupee against the dollar.

Top Gainers & Top Losers


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Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

October 12, 2012 US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Sep 1.70 0.80

India Industrial Production YoY % Change Aug 2.70 1.10

October 13, 2012 China Exports YoY% % Change Sep 2.70 5.50

October 15, 2012 India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Sep 7.55 7.70

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Sep 2.00 1.90

October 16, 2012 UK CPI (YoY) % Change Sep 2.50 2.30

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Sep 2.60 2.70

US Industrial Production % Sep (1.16) 0.20

US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Sep 0.60 0.50October 17, 2012 US Housing Starts Thousands Sep 750.00 770.00

US Building permits Thousands Sep 801.00 810.00

UK Jobless claims change % Change Sep (15.00) (3.00)

October 18, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Oct 13 339.00 --

China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Sep 8.90 9.00

China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q 7.60 7.40

October 19, 2012 US Existing home sales Millions Sep 4.82 4.70

October 23, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Oct A (25.90) --

October 24, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Oct A 49.70 --

Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Oct A 47.40 --

US New home sales Thousands Sep 373 --

US FOMC rate decision % Oct 24 0.25 --


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Published in FY 2012. Angel Broking 2011-12

Angel Broking All rights reserved. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri East, Mumbai 400 093, IndiaTel.: +(91) 022 3935 7600

The information given herein or in the accompanying material is intended only to be general information relating to the organization, structure, functions, areas of business, potential andscope of Angel Group of companies, which expression may as the context requires include the holding company, subsidiary companies and their affiliates, or any or all of them, variouslyreferred to as AngelBroking,AngelGroup,Angel or the Group or the Company and while every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the informationgiven, neither the group companies, nor any of their Directors, Members, employees, servants or agents make any guarantee or assume any liability for any errors or omissions in theinformation furnished. It is further made clear that nothing stated or anything omitted to be stated in this document can constitute a ground for any claim, demand or cause of action againstthe company or any of its Directors, Members, employees, servants or agents.

Monthly Advisory Presentation Sep

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