Monsoon in India

Monsoon – Monsoon can simply be understood as Rainy season which starts off in June and

stays till October. In text book terms monsoon is actually a seasonal shift in wind direction and

pressure distribution that causes a change in precipitation. Monsoon in India is very crucial

factor as we Indians rely much on Agriculture and its Allied activities. Monsoon is the second

season that India experiences in a year which falls for 4 months starting in June. Going deeper

Monsoon is rainy season carried by high winds from Indian ocean mainly over South Asian

countries and North East African countries.

How Important is Monsoon for India?

Monsoon is very important for India as India is Agro-based economy. We have seen bad

monsoons for consecutive 2 years 2014 & 2015 which has impacted the Agriculture output.

Whereas a normal monsoon last year at 97% has proven to be fantastic for Agriculture output.

Better Monsoon will lead to good agriculture production which means good income for

farmers. Higher income for Farmers will then lead to higher demand and higher consumption.

Year wise Monsoon Percentage Rainfall

2010- 102% (Normal)

2011- 102% (Normal)

2012- 93% (Okay)

2013- 106% (Good)

2014- 88%(Bad)

2015- 86%(Bad)

2016- 97% (Normal)

2017- 96%(Expected)

What are factors that affect the Monsoon?

Indian Monsoon is analyzed looking at five major factors. Today we shall discuss about first

three factors and they are:

1. ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillator is a condition that affects the monsoon. Normally

the Cold winds from South America travel to Australia which enjoys summer. These

winds will give rise to rain as Australian land is filled with heat. The rains start in

Australia in month of April due to these hot & cold winds intersection and then move to

countries like Indonesia & Malaysia by May and reach India in June. But, if these cold

winds are stopped midway and turn into warm winds that’s when the Monsoon gets

delayed or spoiled. This factor is called as El Nino.

2. Mascarene High - It is like a fuel to the monsoon. It’s basically a booster where the High

pressure gets built in Madagascar to speed up the monsoon winds and fasten Monsoon

winds movement towards India. Interestingly Mascarene High is already formed which

means the fuel is ready and waiting for winds from South America.

3. Indian Ocean Dipole – It is the temperature gradient difference between western and

eastern side of Indian ocean. Here you would want High temperature in Western Indian

ocean when compared to Eastern part of Indian Ocean. Western side is the South

African border countries like Somalia, Kenya & Tanzania, Eastern side of Indian ocean is

taken by Australia. So, When the Temperature is lower in eastern side the winds get

pushed to move to high temperature places like Somalia and Kenya.

Favorable vs Unfavorable:

1. ENSO: El Nino is important aspect which has 50% probability of happening which means

this is working unfavorable at this moment standing as pillar for Indian Monsoon.

2. Mascarene High is very much ready to push the winds and geared up. In fact, Mascarene

high was formed on April 14th. So, this is one big positive for Indian monsoon.

3. Indian Ocean Dipole is presently seen not much difference in Temperature in both the ends. Which is neutral.

Overall this is how Indian Monsoon stands right now. Very Neutral giving no early signs of

predicting Monsoon completely. Indian Meteorological Department came out with 96% rainfall

with 5% upward or downward correction.

I will talk about the other two factors contributing to Indian Monsoon in 1st week of May. Until

then stay tuned and let’s hope for things moving in positive direction for Indian Monsoon.